Nevada football coach Jay Norvell has been around big-time NFL draft quarterback prospects from big-time schools.
As assistant offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, Norvell saw Sooners quarterback Sam Bradford win the Heisman Trophy in 2008 and become the No. 1 overall pick of the 2010 draft. As a first-year Indianapolis Colts assistant in the spring of 1998, Norvell caught passes from Peyton Manning during the Tennessee quarterback’s pre-draft workout (the Colts went on to draft Manning at No. 1 overall).
But Norvell also has seen quarterbacks from lesser-known programs get drafted early, especially in recent years. Since the 2016 draft, six quarterbacks from non-Power 5 programs have been selected in the first round, including two from FCS power North Dakota State (Carson Wentz, Trey Lance). The Western half of the country has been especially fertile, producing Wyoming‘s Josh Allen, Utah State‘s Jordan Love and BYU‘s Zach Wilson as first-round picks.
The next in line could be playing for Norvell at Nevada. Carson Strong enters the 2021 season with the NFL’s eyes very much on him. Strong has 5,193 passing yards with 38 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions in two years as Nevada’s starter, completing exactly two-thirds of his attempts. He’s the reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year after finishing second nationally in completions (27.7 per game) and seventh in both passing yards (317.6 per game) and completion percentage (70.1) in 2020.
Strong appears at No. 4 on Mel Kiper Jr.’s list of top 2022 quarterback draft prospects, behind another Group of 5 QB, Liberty’s Malik Willis, and Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler and North Carolina’s Sam Howell.
“You think of where the Zach Wilsons have come from, the Trey Lances have come from, Josh Allens, Jordan Loves, those kids have all come from a similar background as Carson,” Norvell told ESPN. “So, is it possible for Carson to be a guy like that? Absolutely. But it’s obviously up to him.”
Here’s a closer look at Strong and his draft outlook, as well as other quarterback prospects from the Group of 5 or lower divisions whom the NFL will be tracking this season.
When Strong arrived at Nevada in 2018, he wasn’t thinking about the NFL. He just wanted to play, and knew he could deliver. Knee surgery had wiped out his senior season of high school, and Strong enrolled early and went through spring practice. The wait continued in the fall of 2018, as Strong redshirted and appeared in just one game.
Every Friday night, he’d text Norvell: If you need me, I’m ready to go.
Strong won Nevada’s offensive scout team award and said the experience helped him quicken his release and make smart decisions with the ball. Back then, Nevada’s scout-team quarterbacks could be hit, and a pressuring, Cover 1 defense consistently brought the heat.
“Like full-scrimmaging every day, it was great for me,” Strong said.
Nevada all-conference tight end Cole Turner, who has lived with Strong and standout wide receiver Romeo Doubs since all three were freshmen, remembers Strong’s confidence from the beginning.
“He always talked about how he wanted to be a starter here, even though we had a guy [Ty Gangi] who had started for multiple years,” Turner said. “He said, ‘I’m going to do everything in my power to be the guy.’ Once I saw him follow through, I knew he could do anything.”
In 2019, Strong led a comeback win over Purdue in his first career start, displaying the efficiency (295 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions) that would become his trademark. Last season, he eclipsed 250 passing yards in eight of nine games, had multiple touchdown passes in all but one game (five with three or more TDs) and logged only one multi-interception game.
Strong had attempted 299 passes without an interception, seven shy of the Mountain West record set by Fresno State’s Derek Carr — an NFL second-round selection and current Las Vegas Raiders starter — until a Week 4 pick against New Mexico. He posted an interception rate of 1.13. Among FBS quarterbacks with at least 25 touchdown passes in 2020, only Wilson and Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall threw fewer interceptions than Strong (four).
“What got people’s attention was his touchdown-to-interception ratio,” Norvell said. “It was right there with all the guys picked in the first round last year.”
Strong limits interceptions without being overly cautious. Turner and Doubs never need to tell their friend when they’re matched up in single coverage (“He’s going to take that chance,” Turner said). Nevada also practices downfield throws more than most teams, as its defense primarily operates out of man coverage.
“You want to take as many shots as you can,” Strong said. “If they’re giving us one-on-one matchups, then we should be taking a shot every single play. But if they’re playing soft coverage and they’re bailing out, it doesn’t make sense to force the deep ball. Playing QB is kind of like boxing. Give them a few left jabs, and when the defense puts their hands down, you knock them out with the deep ball.”
Strong’s deep-ball throws are what reminds Norvell of Bradford, who averaged 9.8 yards per attempt with 74 completions of 20 yards or longer in 2008. But Strong also shows accuracy and arm strength in the intermediate game, and good anticipation of where to throw.
At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Strong projects as a true pro-style pocket passer.
“In college, the hashes are wider than pro ball, and he can be on the left hash and throw comebacks to the wide field. Most college quarterbacks can’t do that,” Norvell said. “He can throw deep outs, he can throw deep comebacks, he can throw low balls, he can throw posts. He can touch every part of the field with his arm, so those are the things that are intriguing to [the NFL].
“The things we do and what his strengths are correlate to that level.”
Norvell and Strong often discuss the NFL, reviewing film of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and other quarterbacks. Strong watches the draft and considers himself a big NFL fan.
But when Turner mentioned Kiper’s quarterback prospect rankings to Strong, asking if he’d seen them, Strong simply said, “Yep. Let’s go back to work.”
“There’s a lot of things I need to improve on if I want to be an NFL quarterback one day, which I think I can do and I will do,” Strong said. “But I’m far from a finished product.”
An NFL scout described Strong as “a Group of 5 draftable quarterback” while adding that this fall will go a long way toward determining when he hears his name called. In 2020, Nevada played only Mountain West opponents, plus Tulane in a bowl game. The Wolf Pack open this fall at Cal, one of the Pac-12’s better defenses, and they also have early-season trips to Kansas State and Boise State.
“If he goes out there and blows it up, he could rise pretty high,” the scout said. “Or he could go out there and be average and be one of those Day 3 quarterbacks. Definitely a guy that’s on the major radar, who every team will send scouts through to get multiple opinions.
“You would think he’s going to have a good year. He’s been in the same system now for four years, so there’s a lot of dots suggesting that it will connect well.”
Strong isn’t taking anything for granted. He had clean-up surgery on his right knee after the season, which limited his reps in spring practice.
But he didn’t want to give up snaps, forcing Norvell to once kick him out of practice.
“There’s no holding me back for fall camp,” Strong said.
Strong has tracked recent drafts and knows that where prospects play doesn’t impact their stock, especially the quarterbacks. But he also recognizes that the spotlight shines brighter on those leading winning teams, which is his plan for 2021.
“A conference championship and a New Year’s Six bowl, win every single game,” Strong said of his expectations. “If I was a betting man, I would bet everything I had.”
Here’s a look at four other 2022 quarterback draft prospects from the Group of 5.
Malik Willis, Liberty: Ranked No. 3 on Kiper’s list of top 2022 quarterback draft prospects, Willis has blossomed at Liberty under coach Hugh Freeze after starting his career at Auburn. The 6-foot-1, 215-pound Willis led FBS quarterbacks in rushing with 944 yards and 14 touchdowns last season to go along with 2,260 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. Willis eclipsed 80 rushing yards seven times in 2020 and ranked in the top 10 nationally in total offense (320.4 yards per game) and points responsible for (20.4 per game). Similar to Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral, Willis collects touchdowns in bunches but must eliminate shaky performances from his profile. As good as he was last season, Willis threw five of his interceptions in two games, and he had two games in which he completed less than 41% of his attempts. Showcase opportunities this season include road trips to UAB and Ole Miss and a home game against Louisiana.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati: Ridder is hardly an obscure name around college football after leading Cincinnati to consecutive 11-win seasons and an AAC championship and Peach Bowl appearance in 2020. A three-year starter with a 30-5 record at Cincinnati, Ridder earned AAC Rookie of the Year honors in 2018 and last fall was named the league’s Offensive Player of the Year. Ridder’s career numbers jump out, both in passing (6,905 yards, 57 touchdowns, 20 interceptions) and rushing (1,825 yards, 22 touchdowns). He significantly improved his accuracy from 2019 to last season, and he found the end zone with his legs more often. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Ridder has excellent size, moves well and sees the entire field when he plays. He will lead a preseason top-10 team that will be in the spotlight Sept. 18 at Indiana, Oct. 2 at Notre Dame and throughout AAC play.
Dustin Crum, Kent State: Strong isn’t the only quarterback whose ability to limit mistakes should impress NFL talent evaluators. Crum has started only 16 games for Kent State the past two seasons, but he has attempted 425 passes, completing 299 of them and throwing only four interceptions. After firing 20 touchdown passes in 2019, Crum had 12 in only four games last season. If he can maintain his 2020 pace, which included 73% completions, for an entire season this fall, he certainly will improve his draft position. Coach Sean Lewis’ offense is a quarterback’s dream, and the 6-foot-3, 207-pound Crum will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his arm. Crum faces two of the nation’s better defenses in the first three weeks with trips to Texas A&M and Iowa, and also visits Maryland before the end of September.
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina: McCall is only a redshirt sophomore, but he’s draft-eligible and could be tempted to leave the teal turf of Conway, South Carolina, with another impressive season. He claimed Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year honors in 2020, passing for 2,488 yards with 26 touchdowns, with only three interceptions, and completing 68.9% of his passes. A Manning Award finalist, McCall has good size (6-foot-3, 210 pounds) and plays in an innovative spread-option offense under coach Jamey Chadwell. He ranked fifth nationally in pass efficiency (184.3 rating) and 10th in passing touchdowns. McCall ultimately might need another college season after 2021 before making the jump, but for now he’ll lead another very good Coastal Carolina team trying to defend its Sun Belt championship.