The quarterback position in college football has become the turbulent epicenter of an ever-changing sport.
Consider last year’s quarterback future power rankings. Oklahoma topped the list because of Spencer Rattler (now at South Carolina) and talented incoming freshman Caleb Williams (now at USC with ex-Sooners coach Lincoln Riley). USC came in at No. 3, bolstered by returning starter Kedon Slovis (now at Pitt) and Jaxson Dart (now at Ole Miss). My capsule on No. 6 Georgia had a breakdown of returning starter JT Daniels (currently in the transfer portal) but no mention of Stetson Bennett IV, the quarterback who would lead the Bulldogs to their first national title in 41 years.
Projecting the quarterback position for one year, much less three, has become increasingly difficult. But here at Future Power Rankings HQ, the challenge is welcomed. For those unfamiliar with the series, welcome to the fun. During the coming months, I will project the top 25 quarterbacks, offenses, defenses and total teams for the next three seasons: 2022, 2023 and 2024. These are done in real time, based on who is currently on each roster. But an eye toward the future also shapes the rankings, as recruiting for 2023 and beyond is starting to take shape. I also assess the likelihood of players entering the NFL draft early, or entering the portal.
For the quarterback rankings, a returning starter matters but a returning starter with multiple years of eligibility might be even more valuable. Depth is also significant, although often fleeting at quarterback. The lists are primarily based on personnel, but coaching is a factor, especially after a winter where Riley and other gifted quarterback mentors changed addresses. Some teams that just missed the cut: Tennessee, Purdue, Maryland and Ole Miss.
Let’s begin the rundown.
2021 ranking: 5
Returning starter: C.J. Stroud
Scouting the Buckeyes: For the first time since coach Ryan Day arrived in Columbus, the quarterback position in 2021 carried an element of mystery. The questions amplified after Stroud’s early season injury and a Week 2 home loss to Oregon. But by the end of the year, Stroud was a Heisman Trophy finalist and delivering record performances, especially in the Rose Bowl, where he completed 80.4% of his passes for 573 yards and six touchdowns. Stroud completed more than 80% of his attempts in three of his final four games, and passed for 2,165 yards in his final five contests. After throwing interceptions in each of his first three games, Stroud had just three picks — against 36 touchdown strikes — in the final nine contests. He enters his third season as one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, which would make him the first winner in the Big Ten (and Ohio State) since quarterback Troy Smith in 2006.
Stroud will almost certainly depart after the 2022 season, but Ohio State’s recruiting — and the continued presence of Day and offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson — should ease any worries. Kyle McCord, ESPN’s No. 31 overall recruit in 2020, will be ready to step in after another season as Stroud’s primary backup. Although quarterbacks Jack Miller and Quinn Ewers transferred out, Ohio State added Devin Brown, ESPN’s No. 4 pocket passer and No. 80 overall prospect for the 2022 class. Ohio State likely will add another quarterback or two, and the future seems secure beyond the coming season.
2021 ranking: 3
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Trojans: USC is in the top 3 for the third straight year, but the landscape of the program — and the quarterback position — has transformed in the past three months. In Riley, USC gets arguably the nation’s premier quarterback developer. Although USC never had trouble recruiting gifted quarterbacks, it will become a premier destination, both for high school prospects and transfers. The Trojans landed the biggest quarterback transfer prize of the winter in Williams, who reunited with Riley after passing for 1,912 yards and 21 touchdowns with four interceptions as a true freshman. USC should get two full seasons with Williams at quarterback in Riley’s system, surrounded by a talented group of pass-catching targets. Anything less than record numbers, national awards and a top-3 slot in the 2024 NFL draft would be considered a big disappointment for Williams.
The short-term question for USC is depth, although the team returns Miller Moss, a top-40 prospect in the 2021 class who appeared in the season finale last year. Will Moss stick around until 2024 for a chance to start? USC has a commitment from Malachi Nelson, ESPN’s. No. 2 overall prospect for the 2023 class. Riley should be able to add depth through the portal, even while Williams is still on the roster.
2021 ranking: 4
Returning starter: Bryce Young
Scouting the Tide: Alabama returns the Heisman Trophy winner in Young, who has met expectations so far as a top-5 national recruit out of California. Young showed playmaking, poise and production in his first season as Alabama’s starter, ranking second nationally in both passing yards (4,872) and passing touchdowns (47). He threw multiple touchdown passes in all but one game and had three or more in 10 games. The exciting part is he has room to grow after some struggles in the CFP and against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Young can be more efficient at times, and should take another step with a talented group of receivers and tight ends. He also should benefit from a second season under veteran playcaller Bill O’Brien, who somewhat surprisingly, is back at Alabama.
Like Stroud, Young is widely expected to depart Alabama after his third season, and will be a candidate to become the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. The immediate depth took a hit with Paul Tyson‘s transfer to Arizona State, but as long as Young stays healthy, the questions with the room will emerge in 2023 and 2024. Jalen Milroe had seven pass attempts and 15 rushes in four games last season, and Alabama added incoming freshman Ty Simpson, ESPN’s No. 2 pocket passer and No. 33 overall player in the 2022 class. Like Young, Simpson should be ready to compete for significant field time in his second season.
2021 ranking: 12
Returning starter: Haynes King (partial)
Scouting the Aggies: Like many things in coach Jimbo Fisher’s program, the quarterback position looks ready to take off the next few seasons. The Aggies have at least two talented and interesting options for 2022 in King, who opened 2021 as QB1 before sustaining a season-ending leg fracture in Week 2, and former LSU starter Max Johnson. King, a top-50 national prospect in the 2021 class, was Fisher’s handpicked signal caller and, if healthy, could become a multiyear leader for the offense. King has speed and shiftiness, and reminds some of a bigger Johnny Manziel. But Johnson didn’t transfer in from LSU to sit on the bench. The left-hander passed for 2,815 yards with 27 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2021, and could thrive under Fisher in a more stable situation.
Things get really interesting beyond King and Johnson. Texas A&M adds in-state prep star Conner Weigman, ESPN’s top-rated quarterback and No. 26 overall recruit in the 2022 class. Although both King and Johnson have multiple years of eligibility left, Weigman could emerge as Texas A&M’s quarterback of the future. Texas A&M also has a commitment from Eli Holstein, ESPN’s No. 59 junior prospect. Bottom line: Fisher and the Aggies will have plenty of options through the 2024 season, even though there will be some attrition.
2021 ranking: 6
Returning starter: Stetson Bennett
Scouting the Bulldogs: Georgia’s quarterback outlook is always fascinating, even after a national title and with a returning starter in Bennett. Coach Kirby Smart’s program is less quarterback-reliant than others, but Bennett stepped up in the playoff when his team needed him in the fourth quarter against Alabama. Bennett should have a victory lap type of season this fall, after passing for 2,862 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He will be working under coordinator Todd Monken again, and has the confidence and respect of the Georgia locker room. But he likely will be pushed by Brock Vandagriff and others.
Vandagriff, ESPN’s No. 37 overall recruit in the 2021 class, spent last year watching and learning behind Bennett and JT Daniels, but likely envisions 2022 as his time to shine. He’s joined in Georgia’s quarterback room by Carson Beck, an ESPN 300 recruit in 2020 who saw limited action in four games last season. The Bulldogs also add Gunner Stockton, ESPN’s No. 5 dual-threat quarterback and No. 109 overall prospect in the 2022 class. Georgia remains in the running for Arch Manning, one of the most decorated quarterback recruits in recent history and the top prize of the 2023 class.
2021 ranking: 13
Returning starter: Tyler Van Dyke
Scouting the Hurricanes: There are many reasons for Miami fans to be excited as the Mario Cristobal era dawns, and the quarterback position is high on the list. Although the Hurricanes never quite turned a corner in 2021, they found their quarterback of the future in Van Dyke, a confident redshirt freshman who passed for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns despite only two months in the starting role. Van Dyke, ESPN’s No. 3 pocket passer in the 2020 recruiting class, eclipsed 300 pass yards with three or more touchdowns in each of Miami’s final six games (five victories), which earned him ACC Rookie of the Year honors. He must adjust to a new coach in Cristobal and a new playcaller in offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, but there are high hopes for Miami’s offense going forward. Van Dyke also could lead the offense through 2023, although he’ll be on the NFL draft radar with a repeat performance this fall.
Miami has excellent insurance behind Van Dyke, at least for now, in Jake Garcia, ESPN’s No. 23 overall recruit in the 2022 class. Garcia looked good before a season-ending foot injury in September. While his unique route to Miami suggests he won’t wait a year or two, you never know. The Hurricanes retain reserve Peyton Matocha and add Jacurri Brown, ESPN’s No. 6 dual-threat quarterback in the 2022 class. Cristobal and Gattis are both excellent recruiters, and Miami should have no trouble luring talented quarterbacks from high school or the portal.
2021 ranking: 1
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Sooners: A drop from the top was inevitable after Oklahoma lost Williams, Rattler and Riley, but the outlook at quarterback still looks solid in Norman. New coach Brent Venables hired a dynamic offensive playcaller in coordinator Jeff Lebby, who helped attract UCF transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Lebby worked with Gabriel at UCF in 2019, when the freshman averaged 15.5 yards per completion (fourth nationally) and led an offense that ranked second nationally in yards (540.5 ypg) and fifth in scoring (43.4 ppg). Gabriel was one of the nation’s most productive quarterbacks in his first two seasons, piling up nearly identical totals for passing yards (3,653 and 3,570) and passing touchdowns (29 and 32). He should thrive under Lebby, and could lead OU through the 2023 season.
If Gabriel is only a short-term solution, Oklahoma will look to the future with Nick Evers, ESPN’s No. 7 pocket passer and No. 165 overall player in the 2022 recruiting class. Evers’ development under Lebby this fall will be critical for 2023 and 2024. Oklahoma has a commitment from Jackson Arnold, ESPN’s No. 2 dual-threat quarterback and No. 41 overall junior recruit. The school also will remain an appealing option for quarterback transfers.
2021 ranking: 9
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Longhorns: Texas A&M boasts the most loaded quarterback room in the state, but Texas has the most interesting collection. The Longhorns’ primary contenders — Hudson Card, Quinn Ewers and Maalik Murphy — all carry freshman or sophomore eligibility. Whoever emerges from the offseason competition could guide coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense through 2023, and possibly beyond. The spotlight is undoubtedly on Ewers, who returns home after skipping his senior season of high school to attend Ohio State, where he arrived late, pocketed NIL dollars and didn’t attempt a pass. Ewers was one of the more decorated high school quarterback prospects in recent years, and could be a natural fit to operate Sarkisian’s system.
Card opened the 2021 season as the starter and benefited from a year under Sarkisian. He came out of Austin’s Lake Travis High School as ESPN’s No. 40 overall recruit in the 2020 class — not quite in Ewers’ category but not far off. Although Card must navigate the Ewers hype around the Texas program, he also has the opportunity to outplay him and win the job. Murphy is an ESPN 300 prospect from California, who likely will be a good insurance option for this fall.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Devin Leary
Scouting the Wolfpack: NC State makes the biggest rise in this year’s quarterback rankings. Although Leary could lead NC State’s offense for two more years, if he follows up his performance from last season — 3,433 pass yards, 35 touchdowns, seven interceptions — he should jump to the NFL. Leary surged down the stretch in 2021, tossing four touchdown passes in four of his final five games. NC State could have its best team in coach Dave Doeren’s tenure, and Leary will once again be working under veteran playcaller Tim Beck. Assuming Leary won’t be back in 2023, NC State could turn to Ben Finley and Aaron McLaughlin, who will compete for the QB2 role this fall.
McLaughlin brings more flash as ESPN’s No. 53 overall prospect in the 2021 class. He could carry NC State through 2023 and 2024 after Leary moves on. NC State also went to the state of Georgia for M.J. Morris, a three-star, dual-threat prospect in the 2022 class. The team also has a commitment from three-star junior Lex Thomas. NC State fans love to note the program’s impressive history at quarterback, and the Wolfpack could be entering another successful stretch under Doeren and Beck.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Cade McNamara
Scouting the Wolverines: Improved quarterback play wasn’t the biggest reason for Michigan’s turnaround from 2-4 in 2020 to a Big Ten title and the CFP in 2021, but it certainly helped. McNamara, who played a bit in 2020, led a run-oriented offense with solid numbers (2,576 yards, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions). He has multiple years of eligibility left in a system that shouldn’t change too much under co-coordinators Matt Weiss (quarterbacks coach in 2021) and Sherrone Moore. The bigger question is whether McNamara, an unheralded recruit, can keep the top job over J.J. McCarthy, used mostly in a situational role last season. McCarthy, ESPN’s No. 2 dual-threat quarterback and No. 25 overall player in the 2020 recruiting class, is the highest-rated quarterback prospect in coach Jim Harbaugh’s tenure.
If McCarthy wins the job and reaches his potential as a playmaker, Michigan should be set for at least the next two seasons. McNamara also could guide the team through 2023. The Wolverines have some short-term insurance with Alan Bowman, who had 5,060 pass yards and 33 touchdowns at Texas Tech before transferring. Michigan also added Alex Orji, an ESPN 300 prospect, and three-star recruit Jayden Denegal.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Sean Clifford
Scouting the Nittany Lions: The tepid reaction from some Penn State fans to Clifford’s return surprised me. Clifford improved markedly last season, and at times carried an offense that never ran the ball effectively. He had 3,107 pass yards with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions, although his struggles with accuracy showed up at times. He also dealt with injuries. Still, he enters 2022 as one of the nation’s most experienced quarterbacks, boasting 7,839 career pass yards and 62 touchdowns in 33 starts. If Penn State can play better along the line and at running back, Clifford should give the offense enough to produce.
The real reason for the reaction to Clifford is Drew Allar, the most anticipated Penn State quarterback recruit since Christian Hackenberg. Allar is ESPN’s No. 2 pocket passer and No. 50 overall prospect in the 2022 class. He should lead the PSU offense in 2023 and 2024, and possibly sooner. Don’t forget about Christian Veilleux, who led Penn State to a win over Rutgers last year. Penn State also added a second quarterback in the 2022 class in four-star prospect Beau Pribula, a native of York, Pennsylvania.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Will Rogers
Scouting the Bulldogs: The Mike Leach effect is under way in Starkville. After a solid freshman season, Rogers delivered a record-setting sophomore performance in Leach’s Air Raid offense. He led the nation in completion percentage (73.9) and topped the SEC chart in passing yards per game (364.5), ahead of Alabama’s Young. Rogers broke some of Dak Prescott‘s team records, finishing with 4,739 pass yards and 36 touchdowns. He completed at least 60% of his pass attempts in every game and eclipsed 70% nine times. The question is whether Rogers will play one or two more seasons for Mississippi State. If it’s the latter, and if he stays healthy, Mississippi State could challenge Alabama and Texas A&M for the SEC’s best quarterback outlook.
Chance Lovertich is back for his final season after playing sparingly behind Rogers in 2021. The most interesting non-Rogers subplot is Sawyer Robertson, ESPN’s No. 56 overall recruit in 2021. How long will Robertson wait in Starkville for a chance to play in Leach’s offense? Leach added another Texas quarterback recruit, four-star prospect Braedyn Locke, in the 2022 class. Mississippi State will remain an attractive destination for quarterbacks because of its system.
2021 ranking: 20
Returning starter: Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Scouting the Bruins: UCLA didn’t deliver the complete breakthrough some had predicted for 2021, but the offense and quarterback position undoubtedly made strides. Thompson-Robinson delivered his best season as a Bruin, passing for 2,409 yards with 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions, and logging career bests in rushing yards (609) and rushing touchdowns (9). Although UCLA briefly added UCF’s Gabriel as a transfer and was in the mix for Oklahoma’s Williams, DTR’s return for a fifth season should stabilize the position through 2022. A favorable schedule and an experienced offensive backfield gives UCLA a chance to win its first Pac-12 South Division title since 2011.
The key for Chip Kelly and UCLA is to continue and build on the offense’s success for 2023 and 2024 with likely less-proven quarterbacks. UCLA has some good insurance behind Thompson-Robinson in Ethan Garbers, a Washington transfer who had 51 pass attempts last year, and fourth-year quarterback Chase Griffin. Garbers was an ESPN 300 recruit in the 2020 class. UCLA added ESPN 300 QB prospects in 2020 (Parker McQuarrie) and 2022 (Justyn Martin), as well as four-star recruit Kajiya Hollawayne in 2021. All of the quarterbacks likely won’t stay, but depth should be a strength in Westwood.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Cameron Rising
Scouting the Utes: Despite Utah’s remarkable consistency under coach Kyle Whittingham, projecting the quarterback spot always comes with a hint of trepidation. Other than a few exceptions, the Utes aren’t known for elite quarterback play under Whittingham. But there’s finally some continuity at offensive coordinator with Andy Ludwig, and Rising returns after leading Utah to its first Pac-12 championship and first Rose Bowl appearance. Despite not opening the 2021 season as Utah’s starter, Rising replaced Charlie Brewer and blossomed, completing 63.8% of his passes for 2,493 yards with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions, and ranking sixth nationally in total QBR (84.2). The Texas transfer likely will lead Utah’s offense through the 2023 season.
Behind Rising, Utah has Ja’Quinden Jackson, another Texas transfer who was ESPN’s No. 34 recruit in the 2020 class. How Utah uses and develops Jackson will be interesting to monitor. The Utes also have walk-on Bryson Barnes, who delivered some Rose Bowl heroics against Ohio State and could see his role increase. Utah’s likeliest successor to Rising could be Nate Johnson, ESPN’s No. 4 dual-threat quarterback and No. 92 overall recruit for the 2022 class.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Payton Thorne
Scouting the Spartans: MSU took a major step in Thorne’s first season as the starter, increasing its wins total from two to 11, and finishing No. 8 nationally after a win in the Peach Bowl. Thorne likely will lead the offense for two more seasons, although a big step this fall will put him on the NFL draft radar. He set Michigan State’s single-season touchdown pass record with 27 in 2021, and ranked second in team history for total offense (3,421 yards) and third in passing yards (3,240). If he can improve his accuracy a touch, Michigan State should be very productive on offense again, even after losing running back Kenneth Walker III, the Doak Walker Award winner.
Coach Mel Tucker also has Thorne’s successor in place with Katin Houser, a four-star recruit out of California with good size and arm strength. Houser, who arrived on campus at only 17, will have at least one year to develop and possibly two. MSU has some insurance with second-year quarterback Hamp Fay, and showed last year how effective it can be in adding transfers, if needed.
2021 ranking: 15
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Tigers: An intriguing quarterback situation added another layer Sunday with the arrival of transfer Jayden Daniels, a three-year starter at Arizona State. Daniels joins veteran Myles Brennan and talented young QBs Garrett Nussmeier and Walker Howard under new coach Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge. LSU’s goal is to blend Daniels’ efficiency of 2019 (17 touchdown passes, only two interceptions) with his mobility of last season (710 rushing yards, six touchdowns). But the team essentially has two short-term options in Daniels and Brennan, who returns from a series of injuries after showing some glimpses early in 2020. Although the Daniels addition is generating immediate buzz, LSU’s quarterback outlook beyond 2022 should be really fun to watch. Will both Nussmeier and Howard stick around to compete next spring?
Kelly’s management of the quarterback room, alongside coordinator Mike Denbrock and quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan, will shape whether LSU gets the most out of this group. Nussmeier, son of longtime college offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, was ESPN’s No. 63 overall recruit in the 2021 class. He played most of LSU’s game against Arkansas as a true freshman and had 57 pass attempts for the season. Howard, a native of Lafayette, Louisiana, who enrolled for the spring, is ESPN’s No. 3 dual-threat quarterback recruit and No. 41 overall player in the 2022 class.
2021 ranking: 2
Returning starter: D.J. Uiagalelei
Scouting the Tigers: Clemson was going to drop in the rankings after a season in which it did not reach the CFP or produce anywhere near normal levels at quarterback. I can’t remember an elite program that returns both its head coach and starting quarterback, and faces as many question marks as Clemson does in 2022. Offensive coordinator Tony Elliott finally took a head-coaching job, and coach Dabo Swinney replaced him with quarterbacks coach Brandon Streeter, a former Clemson QB who has overseen the position since 2015. Streeter will try to engineer improvement with Uiagalelei, who looked good in limited action as a freshman but threw more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (9) last season and finished 97th nationally in total QBR (43.2). Uiagalelei has size, arm strength and a slimmed-down frame, but must recapture his confidence to lead a unit with fewer assurances than usual.
If Uiagalelei stagnates or regresses, expect Clemson to go with Cade Klubnik, ESPN’s top-ranked dual-threat quarterback and No. 28 overall player in the 2022 recruiting class. The Austin, Texas, native made an impression early in spring practice and could give Clemson the playmaking boost it needs at the position. Clemson also regains graduate transfer Hunter Johnson, an ESPN top-25 recruit who started his career with the Tigers before several disappointing seasons at Northwestern.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Luke Doty (partial)
Scouting the Gamecocks: The quarterback outlook has quickly transformed at South Carolina, which opened the Shane Beamer era with Zeb Noland, a graduate assistant weeks earlier, as its QB1 because of injuries. After piecing things together throughout the season, South Carolina seemingly has solidified its quarterback room for the foreseeable future. Beamer landed one of the transfer portal’s biggest prizes in Rattler, whom he knew from working at Oklahoma in 2019 and 2020. Although Rattler lost his starting job midway through last season, he still put up solid numbers — 74.9% completions, 11 touchdowns — and will be anxious to redeem himself with a new team in a new league. Rattler, ESPN’s No. 29 overall recruit in the 2020 class, could lead South Carolina’s offense for multiple seasons, although a strong performance this fall likely will push him toward the NFL draft.
South Carolina also has depth, as Doty returns for his third season after starting games in both 2020 and 2021. His recovery from foot surgery could shape South Carolina’s battle to back up Rattler. Colten Gauthier has been on campus for a while, and South Carolina signed two ESPN 300 quarterback recruits for 2022 in Tanner Bailey and Braden Davis. Bailey is ESPN’s No. 5 pocket passer and Davis is ESPN’s No. 7 dual-threat prospect. While it’s unlikely every quarterback stays in Columbia, Beamer will have options to lead the offense through 2024.
2021 ranking: 21
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Ducks: Quarterback development will be a major early subplot for Oregon’s new coaching staff, led by Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham. For all the good things Cristobal did in Eugene, Oregon never quite got consistently elite quarterback play, a prerequisite for returning to the CFP. The quarterback competition this spring could impact the next few seasons, as Auburn transfer Bo Nix arrives to vie for the job alongside holdovers Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield. Nix, who worked with Dillingham at Auburn in 2019, brings three years of starting experience but mixed results overall. He won SEC Freshman of the Year honors alongside Dillingham but saw his passing production stagnate and his rushing numbers never truly surge. If Nix can add to his improved accuracy from 2021, and become a consistent playmaker in another new offense, Oregon will be in very good shape for at least one season.
Thompson and Butterfield also get a fresh start under Dillingham to win the top job. A top-70 national recruit in 2021, Thompson came to Oregon pegged as the team’s quarterback of the future. He has a big arm and can attack well from the pocket. The question is how he’ll react if Nix or Butterfield wins the job and he has to sit for a second season. Butterfield is often the forgotten man in the room but has been on campus longer than any other Oregon quarterback. He also was an ESPN 300 recruit in 2020. But will he fit Dillingham and Lanning’s vision?
2021 ranking: 16
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Irish: If this were a one-year projection, Notre Dame might miss the cut. But the team has added enough young talent at quarterback to generate optimism about what lies ahead. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan turned out to be a very solid addition following Ian Book, but many Notre Dame fans have been waiting for this moment, when Tyler Buchner potentially takes the reins. ESPN rated Buchner as the No. 8 pocket passer and No. 41 overall recruit in the quarterback-loaded 2021 class. Used situationally as a true freshman, Buchner showed flashes of his playmaking ability, averaging 7.3 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns. He will compete to start alongside Drew Pyne, who had 30 pass attempts and two touchdowns last fall. Pyne was an ESPN 300 recruit in the 2020 class. Although Notre Dame had a coaching change, it retained offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who knows both Pyne and Buchner well.
Whoever wins the starting job should lead the offense through at least 2023. But Notre Dame also must build depth with incoming freshman Steve Angeli and others. ESPN rated Angeli, a New Jersey native, as the No. 8 pocket passer and No. 178 overall recruit in the 2022 class. Notre Dame’s 2023 recruiting under coach Marcus Freeman is off to a very good start, but the team has yet to secure a commitment from a quarterback. The Irish also could look to the portal for a quarterback after their success with Coan.
2021 ranking: 14
Returning starter: Spencer Sanders
Scouting the Cowboys: Normally, I wouldn’t think twice about including an Oklahoma State team coming off of a No. 7 finish and returning a three-year starter in Sanders. The Cowboys deserve to be here, but their method for success in 2021 — a top-5 defense — changes how they’re viewed for the next few years. Sanders has delivered notables in his first three seasons, and enters his fifth year as the Big 12’s most accomplished quarterback. He has eclipsed 2,000 pass yards in each of the past three seasons, and saw his 2021 rushing numbers resemble those from 2019, when he won Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors. But Sanders also has had some hiccups, including double-digit interception totals in two of his three seasons. Still, he will lead and stabilize the Pokes offense this coming fall.
The question here is what happens after Sanders leaves Stillwater. Longtime backup Shane Illingworth transferred to Nevada last month, leaving Garret Rangel and others to compete behind Sanders. Rangel was an ESPN 300 recruit in the 2022 class. His development this spring will be critical, but he could become Sanders’ successor. Oklahoma State also has Gunnar Gundy, son of head coach Mike Gundy, and fellow walk-on Peyton Thompson. The team will add a quarterback in the 2023 class, and also could be active for transfers.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: KJ Jefferson
Scouting the Hogs: There are several reasons to believe Arkansas’ turnaround under coach Sam Pittman will continue, and Jefferson is at or near the top of the list. He broke through in his first full season on the field, completing more than two-thirds of his pass attempts for 2,676 yards with 21 touchdown strikes and only four interceptions. He finished 19th nationally in total QBR (76.7) and led the Razorbacks in both rushing attempts (146) and rushing yards (664). Jefferson still has multiple seasons of eligibility left, and few would be surprised if he leads Arkansas’ offense through 2023. The return of coordinator Kendal Briles elevates excitement about Jefferson and the overall offense.
Short-term depth is a concern after Malik Hornsby entered the transfer portal and reserve Kade Renfro sustained a torn ACL in December that could impact his availability for the start of the season. Arkansas really needs Jefferson to stay healthy but will lean on Lucas Coley, an ESPN four-star recruit in the 2021 class, as a backup. It will be interesting to see who Arkansas signs at quarterback for 2023 and how active the team will be in the QB transfer market.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Sam Hartman
Scouting the Deacs: Wake Forest makes its FPR debut not just because of Hartman, but an impressive track record at quarterback. The quarterback streak of John Wolford, Jamie Newman and now Hartman has mirrored the team’s historically successful stretch under coach Dave Clawson and underrated coordinator Warren Ruggiero. Hartman propelled the Demon Deacons to an ACC Atlantic Division title in 2021, passing for 4,228 yards and 39 touchdowns with 14 interceptions, to go along with a team-high 11 rushing touchdowns. Although Hartman has started games in each of the past four seasons, he redshirted in 2019 and gets the COVID year in 2020. So it’s possible, albeit somewhat unlikely, that he leads Wake Forest’s offense through the 2023 season. He has 9,266 career pass yards.
The key will be replacing Hartman, but again, Wake Forest has shown to be quite capable at this position. Michael Kern returns to back up Hartman yet again, and could be in the mix to replace him in 2023. Another candidate is Mitch Griffis, an ESPN four-star recruit in the 2020 class. Wake Forest added Griffis’ brother, Brett, a three-star recruit for 2022, and could also look to the portal for 2023 and 2024.
2021 ranking: 17
Returning starter: Grayson McCall
Scouting the Chanticleers: Along with Jamey Chadwell, McCall has been the face of Coastal Carolina’s stunning rise to back-to-back 11-win seasons. Both the coach and the quarterback are back for the 2022 season, although McCall considered transferring in December before announcing his return. If the portal door is fully closed — some coaches aren’t so sure it is — McCall gives Coastal Carolina tremendous leadership and production as a third-year starter. He has 5,361 pass yards with 53 touchdowns and six interceptions in the past two seasons, while completing 71% of his passes. The back-to-back Sun Belt Player of the Year ranked eighth nationally in QBR (81.5) last season, and eclipsed 70% completions seven times. He underwent surgery to his throwing arm after the 2021 season and missed spring practice.
McCall could still play multiple seasons at Coastal Carolina, which seems unlikely but would strengthen the team’s outlook through 2023. He redshirted in 2019 and could regain a COVID season for 2020. Veterans Bryce Carpenter and Jarrett Guest are competing to back up McCall this fall. Carpenter, entering his final season, started six games in 2019 and two in 2018. Redshirt freshman Ty Lyles is a long-term potential successor to McCall. He accounted for three touchdowns (two pass, one rush) in Coastal Carolina’s spring game.
2021 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Jaren Hall
Scouting the Cougars: These are exciting times at BYU, which is 21-4 the past two seasons, is set to join the Big 12 in 2023 and returns a promising quarterback in Hall. Replacing Zach Wilson in 2021, Hall completed 63.9% of his passes for 2,583 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions in 10 games. He averaged five yards per carry with three rushing scores, and should continue to grow under offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick. Hall enters his fourth season in Provo but has two years of eligibility left. Will he be the quarterback to lead BYU into Big 12 play? If not, the Cougars have a capable backup in Jacob Conover, ESPN’s No. 5 pocket passer and No. 109 overall recruit in the 2019 class. Conover is technically a third-year freshman, and appears to be in line to back up Hall this season. Will Conover wait his turn to succeed Hall, even if it’s in 2024? BYU certainly would benefit from him sticking around.
The Cougars have other options, though, in Cade Fennegan, a transfer from Boise State, and Sol-Jay Maiava, an ESPN three-star recruit in the 2020 class. Fennegan played for Boise State against BYU in 2020, passing for 182 yards and two touchdowns in his only extensive action at the college level. BYU’s track record has been strong under Roderick, who worked with Tanner Mangum and Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.