The way-too-early 2027 All-MLB team

Sure, this seems like an easy task: Plug some numbers into our spreadsheets, shake the Magic 8 Ball for a little additional advice and spit out the 2027 All-MLB team. It can’t be that difficult to project the sport’s top superstars five years from now.

Except, as Ron Washington might say, it’s incredibly hard.

Just look at five years ago. If we had been projecting the All-2022 team prior to the 2017 season, some of our top candidates would have been:

Not all these players were duds in 2021, but none of them would be top choices for an All-2022 team. Oh, and projecting prospects isn’t so easy either. The consensus top prospect heading into 2017 was Andrew Benintendi, and the top pitching prospect was Alex Reyes.

So here’s our All-2027 squad. We had to consider how players age, which players may shift positions and which pitchers are the best bets to stay healthy. Thanks to the influx of young superstar talent in recent seasons, there were a couple obvious choices. Then things got fun.

Catcher

The prospect: Adley Rutschman

The current MLB star: Will Smith

The All-2027 pick: Adley Rutschman

Our discussions about picking the 2027 All-Stars generated many pages of notes from which to work. Very little of it was about the catcher position. That’s how much of a no-brainer Rutschman is. He’ll be 29 in 2027, presumably ensconced in an All-Star career and, hopefully for fans in Baltimore, excelling on a resurgent Orioles team with the battery of Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez — ranked as the top hitting and pitching prospects in baseball by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel — becoming must-watch television every five days.

The last few years have been down for big league catchers in general. Part of it is because clubs have assigned so much value on pitch framing, which means there are a lot of catchers in the big leagues who can’t hit but retain regular roles because of their ability to steal strikes. It may win games, but it’s not glamorous. Whatever the cause, baseball has been short of star-level, every-day backstops. The ones we have — Yadier Molina, Salvador Perez, Yasmani Grandal and J.T. Realmuto, to name a few — will be long in the tooth or retired by 2027. The good news: We could be entering a new golden age of catchers with Rutschman leading the way. Prospect analysts love plenty of other catchers like Francisco Alvarez, Henry Davis, Keibert Ruiz, Tyler Soderstrom, Gabriel Moreno, Diego Cartaya and M.J. Melendez.

First baseman

The prospect: Spencer Torkelson

The current MLB star: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The All-2027 pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Projecting the first base position so far into the future isn’t that easy, because it has tended to be a position for older players and we don’t know who is going to move there from other spots. Still, Guerrero is pretty much a no-brainer. If you filter out first basemen who are over 25 or are still prospects, the top of the future leaderboard goes from Guerrero to someone like Ryan Mountcastle. It’s certainly possible that a current star like Freddie Freeman could still be up there, but not at Guerrero’s level given the difference in age.

With the prospect, there is such a consensus on Torkelson it’s hard to pick anyone else. You do wonder if he’s more Rhys Hoskins than Freeman. Nick Pratto is another interesting possibility, although the K rate is a concern and he’s the same age as Guerrero. Also, you want to see how much of Pratto’s leap last season sticks before you start putting him on Torkelson’s level. Finally, when it comes to picking between Guerrero and Torkelson as the 2027 All-MLB first baseman, let’s answer that with a question: Since Torkelson is basically only a year younger than Vlady, if he lives up to the hype is he even going to get a starting gig for the AL All-Star team?

Second baseman

The prospect: Nolan Gorman

The current MLB star: Marcus Semien

The All-2027 pick: Bo Bichette

The top second basemen in 2021 were Semien, Jose Altuve and Brandon Lowe, but Semien will be 36 in 2027 and Altuve 37, so they’ll be fighting Father Time, while Lowe is a possibility to move off second base by then. Ozzie Albies should still be in his prime at 30, but he’s an odd mix of abilities (77 extra-base hits in 2021, but a .310 OBP), making his overall offensive profile less valuable than the raw counting numbers. So the All-MLB second baseman in 2027 could be a player who is currently playing another position — such as Bo Bichette, who may lack the range to stick at shortstop, or Trea Turner, who did play second after his trade to the Dodgers. Speed guys age well and both could add more power and be a Gold Glove second baseman, especially Turner.

Xander Bogaerts is another position change possibility, especially if he re-signs with Boston after this season, but the way the Red Sox have operated under Chaim Bloom, they would seem more likely to let Bogaerts walk and go with prospect Nick Yorke — especially now that Trevor Story can slide back to shortstop. The prospects are harder to suss out. Yorke is a candidate and while Gorman’s natural position is third base, he’s blocked in St. Louis by Nolan Arenado. He’ll be 27 in 2027, which seems a good reason to pick him as the prospect. But Bichette will still be in prime age, so he’s the overall pick.

Third baseman

The prospect: Josh Jung

The current MLB star: Jose Ramirez

The All-2027 pick: Bobby Witt Jr.

Here, we throw a little bit of a curveball. In normal times, perhaps Witt would be the no-brainer pick at shortstop. But in normal times, you don’t have an 80-grade prospect like Franco who only validated the hype with his rookie season performance. Witt may be the rare shortstop prospect who breaks into the majors at another position, then moves back over to the more premium defensive position later in his career. Because the Royals currently have enviable depth at shortstop, with Nicky Lopez coming off a great defensive campaign and oft-injured-but-immensely-talented Adalberto Mondesi still in the picture, Witt may break in at the hot corner. Thus we shored up the third base position on our future All-Star team by shifting Witt to that spot. It could happen. The Royals might also install Witt at shortstop at the get-go and leave him there for 20 years.

The top third base prospect among different outlets right now is a relative split between Texas’ Jung and breakout St. Louis third baseman Jordan Walker. Walker fielded .876 last season and that, along with scouting reports that already foretold a possible position change, not to mention the ongoing presence of Arenado, works against him at this spot. Other prospects we looked at included the Mets’ Brett Baty and a variety of position-change candidates among shortstop prospects. For the current big leaguer, we love Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ glove but wonder if he’ll hit at an All-MLB level, while the present-day lineup of stars are all possibilities: Arenado, Matt Chapman, Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Austin Riley and position-switch candidates Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Bogaerts were all considered.

Shortstop

The prospect: Bobby Witt Jr.

The current MLB star: Fernando Tatis Jr.

The All-2027 pick: Wander Franco

Go down the list of current MLB stars — Fernando Tatis Jr., Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Bo Bichette, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Tim Anderson and, of course, the wonderful Wander Franco. The only one you absolutely would declare will still be playing shortstop in 2027 is Lindor, and who knows where his offense will be by then given his recent trajectory. With Tatis’ shoulder issues in 2021 and — more problematic — his poor defensive metrics, he may eventually end up in the outfield, especially if prospect CJ Abrams (the No. 2 shortstop prospect behind Witt) sticks in the dirt.

As for Franco, we can project more power as he matures. Maybe not 40-homer power like Tatis, but with his contact ability, he’s going to hit .300 with plenty of extra-base hits and high on-base percentages. He’s not an iron-clad lock to remain at shortstop, but he’s fluid there right now with plenty of arm strength. Here’s betting he does stay there and that gives him the slight edge over Tatis … although maybe we haven’t heard the last of the Padres superstar.

Outfielders

The prospects: Riley Greene, Julio Rodriguez, Zac Veen

The current MLB stars: Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts

The All-2027 picks: Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr.

This was hard! Let’s start with the elite current players we left off who could very well still be producing like All-Stars in five years: Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert, among others. And certainly Betts, who landed at least a nod as a nominee, could still be producing at a Hall of Fame level in five years, when he’ll be 34, unless he’s departed for a full-time career on the PBA tour.

Still, when you look at a list of the best players in baseball right now alongside their respective ages, it’s really hard (or impossible) to create a team like this and not have Tatis, Soto and Acuna on it. Moving Tatis to the outfield is not far-fetched (we’ve seen it some already) and it opens up shortstop for Franco, who really needed to be on this team as well. But it does bump some awfully good outfield candidates.

We wanted to get a true center fielder on the team and perhaps failed to some extent in that regard. Tatis could probably play there, though the Padres could well opt to move shortstop prospect CJ Abrams to center because of his elite wheels. A pre-injury Acuna could play in center as well, but we’ll have to see how he looks when he gets back from his knee injury. And, even so, if prospect Cristian Pache can find his way at the plate, he’ll be in center for the Braves. Greene, one of our prospects, could have fit the bill in center.

Speaking of the prospects, there is a clear division in the outfield from Greene and Rodriguez and the next group of hopefuls. We went with Veen, who is getting a lot of love from analysts and, as a Colorado prospect, should be putting up those sweet Coors Field numbers. We really, really, really wanted to get Greene or Rodriguez on the team and never quite resolved the debate over which one we’d go with. That’s because ultimately, if you have a trio like Tatis, Acuna and Soto, who are already big-league superstars at young ages, there is just no room for a prospect, no matter how dazzling they might be.

Designated Hitter

The prospect: Jordan Walker

The current MLB star: Shohei Ohtani

The All-2027 pick: Mike Trout

What, you’re ready to write off Trout after the calf injury that never healed in 2021? Let’s point out that over the past two seasons Trout has hit .301/.419/.611 for the second-highest wOBA behind only Juan Soto. The injury concern is real, but also a little overstated — yes, he had the torn thumb ligament in 2017 and had some minor setbacks in 2018 and 2019, but still batted 600 times both seasons (and even won the MVP Award in 2019). The point: When you’re as good as Trout, it’s not difficult to envision him putting up a 45-homer/.430 OBP season at 35. Willie Mays was MVP at 34 and third at 35. Henry Aaron hit .300 with 44 home runs at 35. David Ortiz hit .296/.386/.568 from ages 35 to 40. Nelson Cruz averaged 40 home runs from 35 to 38.

It also makes sense to move Trout to left field soon — and to DH by 2027. What about Shohei Ohtani? He’s not guaranteed to be with the Angels in 2027, since he’s eligible for free agency after 2023. What about Yordan Alvarez? It feels like he’ll crank out what he did in 2021 for the next seven or eight seasons — which is very good, but not Trout. Plus, his knees are a concern. Bryce Harper could also end up as a DH by 2027. You hate to project any prospect as a future DH, but Walker struggled at third base in the minors and he’s blocked by in St. Louis by Nolan Arenado anyway. He’s athletic enough to end up at first base or even right field, but the Cardinals stress defense, so maybe Walker just ends up as “hitter.”

Starting pitchers

The prospects: Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz, Jack Leiter, Hunter Greene, George Kirby

The current MLB stars: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Corbin Burnes, Lucas Giolito

The All-2027 picks: Buehler, Burnes, Giolito, Rodriguez, Baz

Look, you could throw a dart at 25 names and come up with five reasonable selections. It’s all about projecting health and durability and good luck with that. It may seem surprising to consider Scherzer in what would be his age-42 season, but if you can survive into your mid-30s without your stuff degrading you have a chance to remain a star into your 40s. Scherzer has a chance at Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens/Randy Johnson-like longevity given his advances in sports medicine, training techniques and biomechanics — not to mention his super-intense make-up. You can apply all that as well to deGrom, who is three years younger, but let’s see what happens to him in 2022 before we predict him to be healthy in 2027.

OK, despite all that, we didn’t quite have the guts to go with Scherzer. Buehler and Giolito have proven durability and results, plus the stuff, command and consistency that make them safe picks. (Gerrit Cole is another strong option here, but he’s several years older.) Burnes gets the third nod based on his ridiculous stuff, although it would be nice if he would pitch a little deeper into games. The pitching ranks in the minors are a little thin in future aces at the moment — except for Rodriguez and Baz, who clearly have the highest ceilings of any prospects. Rodriguez has five plus pitches while sitting in the upper 90s. Baz also throws lightning bolts and you have to love how the Rays develop pitching.

Relief pitchers

The prospects: Nate Pearson, Sixto Sanchez

The current MLB stars: Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase

The All-2027 picks: Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow

What you see above is an implicit acknowledgment that we have no idea who the best relief pitchers are going to be in 2027. Heck, we don’t necessarily know who the best relief pitchers are going to be in 2022. For the prospects, we went with a couple of hard throwers who have struggled with injury. For the current All-Stars, we went with two pitchers who have a combination of elite stuff and who are at an age in which it’s not hard to project them as still being elite in five years. Yet, you wouldn’t go to Vegas on that possibility, because that’s how volatile relief pitching is.

In the end, we threw out two guys who probably have no desire to be relievers in five years. Glasnow kind of fits the mold of the prospects we suggested: supreme fastball but a sudden issue with injury. He’s also worked with a limited repertoire, though, to be fair, he’s done pretty well with it in a starting role. With Ohtani, we wanted to get him on the team somewhere. If he has a hard time staying healthy as a starter, then perhaps his future is as an All-Star DH/elite closer. Perhaps. We really don’t know.