If ever one match sharply shifted the narrative, the All Blacks’ seemingly commanding victory against Ireland at Eden Park was it.
That 42-19 result moved the dial from flatlining on pressure-cooker overload to a sense of relief among All Blacks supporters.
Now, from a New Zealand perspective at least, that must be repeated to seal the series.
Perceptions are often wildly skewed by one 80-minute performance; teams rarely as bad or good as emotion-filled judgements project, with the truth lying somewhere in between.
Yet having arrived home from Europe late last year to a backdrop of mounting discontent following their worst results-based season in 12 years, the All Blacks’ first Test victory went a long way to calming an anxious rugby nation.
New Zealand’s jittery rugby dial is only one match away from redlining, though.
Drilling down into their first Test performance the All Blacks know they must improve their front-line defence and work at the breakdown in order to embrace their desired fast-paced tempo under the Dunedin roof.
The scoreline suggests otherwise but other than the second quarter of the first half at Eden Park, where the All Blacks ran in three of their six tries, the opening Test was highly competitive. The second half finished 14-14, with Ireland largely controlling possession as they hammered away at the All Blacks’ line for long periods.
Any expectations for a repeat wide-margin All Blacks win, therefore, seem misplaced. Ireland were far from despondent and should be better for grasping their faults — those at the set-piece and offering the All Blacks too many chances to feast on the counter attack.
For all that, the second of the sold out three Test series demands an immediate Irish response. With no midweek Māori match to juggle, the tourists will be desperate and focused. The big question is: what else do they have up their sleeve?
The door has, perhaps, been left ajar through further setbacks for the All Blacks – this time in the form of a mini locking crisis.
Last week’s ploy of starting Scott Barrett at blindside flanker worked in the sense it stabilised the All Blacks’ set-piece and allowed them to disrupt Ireland’s lineout and dominate the scrum.
This week, however, Sam Whitelock’s delayed onset concussion, which under the new World Rugby 12-day stand-down protocols is expected to rule the Test centurion out for the remainder of the series, robs the All Blacks of their lineout organiser.
Losing Chiefs lock Tupou Vaa’i to COVID is another blow that forced the All Blacks to push Barrett from blindside to lock, with Patrick Tuipulotu called onto the bench from out of the squad after recently returning from his six-month stint in Japan.
The most notable change to the All Blacks involves Dalton Papalii claiming the No 6 jersey for the first time in his 13-test career to continue their revolving door at blindside. The Blues captain was in superb form throughout Super Rugby before a late-season appendicitis cut him down. He will now attempt to rekindle his brutal best with a slight change of role in the test arena.
“In my opinion the six is more of the hit man so I’ve got to try smack someone early on,” Papalii said. “I’m going to try add my own flavour to the jersey.
“I haven’t played much at six this year but nothing really changes for me mentally or physically. All three loosies have different roles around the field but I’m looking forward to the challenge. I want to play my own game, add a twist to the six jersey and leave a bit of a legacy in that jersey.
“I’ve been following guys like Jerome Kaino growing up watching him, playing with him at the Blues and getting a few tips from him.
“This is an opportunity for me to put a stamp on the six jersey and leave my mark there.”
Elsewhere All Blacks coach Ian Foster has resisted the urge for change, retaining the same starting backline while making four tweaks to the bench. That includes debuts for Chiefs prop Aidan Ross and highly-touted Highlanders halfback Folau Fakatava, Tuipulotu’s inclusion and Will Jordan’s comeback from Covid leaving no room for David Havili, Jack Goodhue or Akira Ioane.
“We want to win the series so that means this week for us,” Foster said. “The best way to cement the progress is to reward the effort they put in by using the experience they had playing against the Irish to try and grow some things. We felt making too many changes right now would take us back a cog.
“We saw last week there were two very good rugby teams on the park. We wanted this series to test some things against a quality northern hemisphere team and get some good information.
“We know how much they want it. We know they’re going to be desperate to keep the series alive so we won’t be surprised that we’re going to have to lift again. We’ve spoken about that but talking and doing are different things. We’re pretty determined.”
Last week the All Blacks had little trouble casting aside COVID complications that claimed three players and four coaches. This week they will attempt to push past Whitelock’s experienced void. Ireland’s quest to square the series is boosted by Jonathan Sexton’s controversial return. The veteran playmaker’s exit half-an-hour into the first test after a head knock coincided with Ireland’s implosion.
Despite failing his initial HIA and not returning to the match, Sexton passed the next two post-match assessments to be cleared this week – a notion that jars with World Rugby’s push for player welfare in this area.
While New Zealand-born playmaker Joey Carbery is a talented prospect, Ireland are a different beast with Sexton running the cutter. In their only starting change from last week Ireland have recalled Mack Hansen to replace Keith Earls on the right wing.
Reflecting the change in climate from Auckland to Dunedin so, too, has the pressure shifted from the All Blacks to Ireland. It’s all or nothing for the visitors in the south but extracting victory from Foster’s settled squad will not come easy.