The Edmonton Oilers are going to win the 2023 Stanley Cup.
Granted, this might not be the best news for the Edmonton Oilers, as evidenced by the lack of a Stanley Cup parade for the New York Islanders last June. So, I reached out to Edmonton general manager Ken Holland to either congratulate him and/or warn him this proclamation was coming.
Me: “Hey Ken. I’m going to pick you guys to win the Stanley Cup in our predictions. Please tell me I’m correct.”
Ken Holland: “I sure hope you’re right lol!!”
That’s the spirit.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are generational talents on the same team. The gravitational pull of those stars will, eventually, ensnare a Stanley Cup for the franchise. As it did for Gretzky and Messier, for Mario and Jagr, for Sakic and Forsberg and for Crosby and Malkin. So why not now?
The duo carried the Oilers to the conference finals last season, where they were swept by the Colorado Avalanche. At that point, an injured Draisaitl was being held together by tape and prayers. He still managed to score four points in Game 4 against the Avs. The entire run was fueled by something one might more commonly find in the NBA: two superstars exerting their will on playoff opponents. McDavid played in 16 playoff games. He had multiple points in 12 of them. In contrast, Nathan MacKinnon played in 20 playoff games and had multiple points in four of them.
Draisaitl and McDavid return with an Oilers team that has more forward depth than any version in recent memory. Evander Kane is back on McDavid’s wing to score multitudes of goals. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins remains an ideal complementary player on a contender. The Oilers have veterans and youngsters and scorers and role players surrounding their two megastars.
This prediction is made with the hope that defenseman Evan Bouchard, after learning from Duncan Keith last season, levels up significantly next to Brett Kulak. Darnell Nurse is a solid defenseman on the other primary pairing. Is it championship depth on paper? Not really. But it could be good enough, with room for improvement during the season.
Obviously the Oilers made a major change in goal, going from the roller coaster that was Mike Smith to … the roller coaster that is Jack Campbell. More on that later.
I think the Oilers did a lot of growing up last season. So does Holland. He cites their Game 6 victory on the road in Los Angeles while facing elimination as a formative moment for his team. The Oilers handled the emotional powder keg that was the Battle of Alberta in the second round, too. That’s important moving forward. So is the scar tissue. Messier is a big “you gotta lose before you win guy.” The Oilers were embarrassed by the now-reigning champions. They’ll remember that ache.
This prognostication greatly depends on whether Jay Woodcroft was the right guy at the right time last season when he took over from Dave Tippett — or the right coach moving forward. One who’s going to remedy some of the Oilers’ defensive shortcomings while allowing them to put the pedal down offensively as he did last season. I’m wagering that he is. And not just because he’s the handsomest coach in the NHL.
So Edmonton wins the West. Whom will the Oilers play for the Stanley Cup? How about the Carolina Hurricanes, who have been trying to climb over the hump for several seasons? More on them in a bit.
Oilers vs. Hurricanes for the Stanley Cup. Party like it’s 2006. Only this time, it’s Edmonton sipping from the chalice as the first Canadian team to win the Cup since 1993 — which, if you know me, is the only downside to this prediction.
What about the rest of the NHL? Here’s my division-by-division breakdown of the projected standings. Playoff teams are bolded. Please enjoy the prognostications.
Atlantic Division
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Detroit Red Wings
Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
The Atlantic is a really interesting division. You have three rebuilding teams all cycling back to relevance at the same time and needing to climb over each other to knock on the playoff door. Guarding that door are four teams that not only refuse to budge but can all legitimately contend for the Stanley Cup.
Somewhere off in the distance are the Montreal Canadiens, doing squats for coach Marty St. Louis as they refresh their draft lottery odds …
Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper told me the climb to the Stanley Cup Final last season was harder than either of the ones the Lightning made to win back-to-back Cups. “It’s painful getting that far just to bow out in the end,” he said. The Lightning will work out that frustration on the rest of the NHL to take the Atlantic.
They’re obviously still loaded for a championship run and are a team that can post a .670 points percentage in its sleep. I’m intrigued to see what Brandon Hagel does now that he’s settled into the team and playing with a healthy Brayden Point. I do wonder if the losses of blue-line stalwarts Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta will have a deleterious effect — although that might be more of an issue in the playoffs than the regular season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have already shown they can play to a .701 points percentage with middling goaltending. The question is whether this season’s goaltending will be middling or maladaptive. I’ve spoken to several experts in the goalie community who believe it won’t terrible, with one going as far as saying that Matt Murray is a .920 goalie behind the Leafs’ defense based on his metrics with Ottawa last season. (They were a little less impassioned about Ilya Samsonov‘s prospects as the other half of this tandem.)
Frankly, all the Leafs need is competency from their goaltenders. They were in the top four in expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 last season. Their defense corps is really solid. There’s a sizable gap between the top two lines and the bottom six, which could hurt them in some situations. But when the top two lines are that good, it overcompensates for it. Auston Matthews writes a sequel to his 60-goal, Hart Trophy-winning season and Toronto cruises to another playoff berth.
One can pinpoint the moment during the offseason when some started predicting the demise of the Boston Bruins. It was right after the announcement that coach Bruce Cassidy had been fired and that Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk would miss several regular-season weeks with injuries. The moment ended when the first 2022-23 predictions from the analytics community had Boston squarely in the playoff picture. As usual, “the Computer Boys and Girls” are correct. The demise of the Boston Bruins has been greatly overstated.
The Bruins are going to have to navigate some rough waters at the start, however. Taylor Hall has joined the wounded with a week-to-week injury. This is where the stabilizing forces of Patrice Bergeron and a returning David Krejci in the middle and Hampus Lindholm on the blue line are vital. (The only thing more tantalizing than that Hall-Krejci-David Pastrnak line is how much Pasta’s next contract is worth.)
New head coach Jim Montgomery is going to maintain the Bruins’ defensive excellence. The difference is that his system in Dallas directly benefited his goaltenders, who had the best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league during his time there. Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, a capable tandem without having Tuukka Rask haunting them, will experience the same benefit. If the Bruins can stay competitive until the reinforcements arrive, it’ll be another playoff season in Boston.
I predicted the Florida Panthers would drop about 20 points in the standings, and I’m sticking to that. It was a perfect storm of conditions for them last season, from the leaguewide offensive uptick to the season’s chaotic play — the Panthers won 11 games when trailing after two periods — to the competitive imbalance in the Eastern Conference.
The team that amassed 122 points was Joel Quenneville’s team, as since-departed interim coach Andrew Brunette just maintained those systems. Silver-tongued Paul Maurice talked his way into this gig and will put his own stamp on the team, which could mean a step back in the regular season for a leap forward in the playoffs. As great as Matthew Tkachuk is, removing Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar from the dressing room is a course-changer, too. Still a playoff team, if not a steamroller.
I was speaking with an NHL general manager the other day who agreed with my pet theory: Detroit Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman isn’t going to start spending on unrestricted free agents unless he thinks his team is about to turn the corner. Yzerman turned the NHL offseason into his own “Supermarket Sweep,” pushing Andrew Copp, David Perron, Dominik Kubalik, Ben Chiarot, Olli Maatta and Ville Husso into his proverbial basket. (Alas, no $50 frozen turkeys.) The first three players are going to goose the Wings’ offense, but so will the continued growth of players like Lucas Raymond, Michael Rasmussen — who an NHL coach recently told me is “an absolute hoss” — and Filip Zadina.
The key to the season is how new coach Derek Lalonde gives this team defensive structure, which the Wings decidedly lacked in 2021-22. One thing is clear: Defenseman Moritz Seider is on that “Calder-winning defenseman who levels up to Norris consideration” elevator. Expect a huge improvement from the Wings, and it’s about time. Isn’t it bonkers to think that Little Caesars Arena has never hosted an NHL postseason game?
Expect the same kind of improvement from the Ottawa Senators, although not quite as much as many are predicting. Their top two lines are incredibly impressive. Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle and Alex DeBrincat will form one of the NHL’s most productive lines. Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson will be better year over year. But I don’t love their back end, and I’d rather have Detroit’s goaltending, honestly.
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Caveat No. 1: Literally every coach and GM I’ve spoken with this offseason has offered some variation of “watch out for Ottawa.”
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Caveat No. 2: Sometimes all it takes is two great lines to make a playoff contender.
I love where the Buffalo Sabres are headed in the first full season of the post-Jack Eichel era. Other teams wish they had defensemen Rasmus Dahlin and rookie Owen Power as the foundation on which to rebuild. It’s going to be fun to see Tage Thompson‘s breakout-year follow-up, and to track the maturation curve of Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn and Alex Tuch, the latter of whom should be the Sabres’ new captain. How competitive they are will largely depend on the ageless wonder of Craig Anderson and whether free agent Eric Comrie isn’t the next Carter Hutton.
There’s positive buzz and enthusiasm, but they’re still a year away. I know it would have been awesome for Terry Pegula to have a Bills Super Bowl championship and a Sabres playoff berth in 2023, but alas …
If the Montreal Canadiens are anything but terrible then they’re doing it wrong. The ideal season: some fireworks from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and hopefully No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky; positive progress for Kirby Dach; an active and bountiful trade deadline from GM Kent Hughes; and then a record worse than those of the Blackhawks and Coyotes. Oh, and Florida somehow misses the playoffs to increase those Connor Bedard odds. Because the Cats traded a conditional first-round pick for a few months of Ben Chiarot, and Montreal now owns that pick for the 2023 draft. Yes, that actually happened.
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Pittsburgh Penguins
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
Washington Capitals
New York Islanders
Columbus Blue Jackets
Philadelphia Flyers
Let’s start with the seismic shift in the Metro landscape, which has the New Jersey Devils improving by nearly 30 points in the standings to enter the playoff party for the first time since 2018, while the Capitals are left outside, banging on the windows for the first time since 2014.
Every season there’s a gestating team that breaks out of its shell. That’s the Devils this season. Their forward group is deep with young talents like Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Yegor Sharangovich and Dawson Mercer. Add another freshman phenom: 20-year-old Alexander Holtz, who had one of those Lucas Raymond-esque preseasons in which his play told the Devils he’s ready. The addition of Swiss army knife Ondrej Palat to Hughes’ wing might not have the accelerant impact of having landed free agent Johnny Gaudreau — who wiggled off New Jersey’s hook at the last moment — but his defensive responsibility and knack for filthy goals are going to benefit Jack. Adding John Marino to the third defensive pairing might be just as impactful.
That forward group helped the Devils to 11th in the NHL last season in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.63), and the team tied for 13th in expected goals against (2.48). Why wasn’t New Jersey better than seventh in the Metro? Three factors, all of which have to reverse course for a playoff berth:
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The Devils’ power play was in “just decline the penalty” territory last season (15.6%). Former Panthers interim coach and Jack Adams finalist (!) Andrew Brunette takes over this unit as an assistant coach. The Panthers had the fifth-best power play in the league last season (24.4%).
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I saw assistant GM Martin Brodeur at Devils camp the other day and asked him what the keys to the season were. To the surprise of no one, the Hall of Fame goalie said, “getting a save.” After whiffing twice in two years on goalie acquisitions, GM Tom Fitzgerald hopes Vitek Vanecek is a stabilizing force for 26-year-old Mackenzie Blackwood, whom the organization still believes can recapture the magic. No goaltending, no playoffs. It’s that simple.
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Bad goaltending subverted every good thing the Devils did last season. So did health. They need a minimum of 70 games from Hughes. They have to hope Hischier plays 80 games for the first time since his rookie season. Dougie Hamilton — remember him? — needs a full season. They get these three factors straightened out, and play up to their metrics last season, and they’re a playoff team.
Which means someone isn’t, and I think that team is the Washington Capitals. I can see why others have them penciled into a playoff spot. They were 10th in expected goals against last season but 23rd in team save percentage (.898); so they sign Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren, and that problem is addressed. Their 5-on-5 offensive metrics have been middling for two seasons, and they’re missing Tom Wilson (ACL) for at least two months and Nicklas Backstrom (major hip surgery) for the foreseeable future; they bring in Connor Brown and Dylan Strome to stabilize things. Ovi shoot, Ovi score, Capitals make the playoffs, right?
Wrong. I think Father Time continues to stalk this team and players like T.J. Oshie. I think the impact of Kuemper and Lindgren has been a bit overstated. I think sometimes good teams aren’t as good as some of their division rivals and they miss the playoffs, which is the case here. But fret not for the Capitals. They’ll figure out Peter Laviolette’s future, as he’s in the last year of his deal, and work with Backstrom to figure out his. They’re perhaps the most fascinating team of the 2023 NHL offseason: nine players under contract — including just one defenseman, John Carlson — with $23.87 million in open cap space and a world of possibilities for Ovechkin’s twilight years.
The Carolina Hurricanes win the Metro for a third straight season on the strength of their goaltending (.913 last season), even-strength offense and a penalty kill as strong as Rod Brind’Amour on leg day. They’ve long had one of the smartest front offices in the NHL, and their offseason reinforced that. Brent Burns is just about perfect for the shot volume the Hurricanes like to create. Paul Stastny is the spackle for any hole in the lineup. They’ll have to wait for Max Pacioretty to heal up, but that’s fine: He’s there to create that goal in the postseason in close games that Carolina hasn’t been getting, with 30 points in his past 36 playoff games. Three veterans arriving at the right time for a team that’s going to break through.
I asked Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Jan Rutta to compare the standard of excellence in Tampa Bay with that on his new team. “When you have a working-hard culture, a winning culture, a lot of the things are the same, and you can feel that,” he said. The band is back together in Pittsburgh. The Penguins haven’t had anything less than a .623 points percentage in the past three seasons, despite their usual spate of injuries. Mike Sullivan should have been a Jack Adams finalist last season; as long as he’s behind the bench as a steadying presence, and Sidney Crosby continues be more “Sid The Kid” than “35-year-old man entering his 18th NHL season,” that winning culture Rutta described will continue unencumbered in Pittsburgh.
I have the New York Rangers fourth here because I remain concerned about their 5-on-5 play — they were 28th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season — even with the addition of free-agent center Vincent Trocheck, who is an upgrade over Ryan Strome. Those concerns could be quickly alleviated if Alexis Lafrenière‘s flashes of brilliance in their playoff run are seen on a weekly basis in the regular season, and if Vitali Kravtsov is one of the league’s breakout players. But factor in a little regression for Igor Shesterkin, still the best goalie in the world, and a power play (25.2%) on which they were overly reliant, and this is a playoff team but not another 110-point team.
My regret in picking the New York Islanders to win it all last season was assuming that it was their veteran poise and defensive structure that enabled them to navigate through two pandemic seasons to the conference finals, and not something more anomalous. I assumed the same traits would have stabilized them through that early road trip and any COVID-related road bumps last season; instead the wheels came flying off. Now GM Lou Lamoriello is making the same calculation, supposing that the Islanders’ 2021-22 flop was due to mitigating circumstances.
Outside of upgrading the defense with Alexander Romanov, Lamoriello fired his coach and doubled down on his aged roster, which should be familiar to any Devils fan who watched him make that same mistake a half-dozen times in between Cup wins. Still, Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov are good enough to keep the Islanders competitive even if Lane Lambert doesn’t prove as effective as his mentor Barry Trotz.
Michael Bublé played the Saddledome on Tuesday, and reportedly roasted Johnny Gaudreau in front of Calgary fans, saying, “I don’t want to play where it’s hard. I don’t want to win the Stanley Cup.” (I’m sure it sounded like velvet when he said it, though.) What Gaudreau did want: seven years, $68.25 million, a full no-movement clause and a place where his growing family could be happy. He obviously makes the Columbus Blue Jackets better, and the magic he creates with Patrik Laine could make for some must-see hockey. But with a young supporting cast, they’re at least a year away from leveling up, especially with goaltending that features the solid play of Elvis Merzļikins and whatever it is that Joonas Korpisalo does.
John Tortorella hasn’t coached a team to a points percentage less than .500 since the 2007-08 Lightning. The Philadelphia Flyers had a .372 points percentage last season. They’ll improve under Torts. Instead of giving up rebounds, there’s a possibility that Carter Hart has a rebound year himself while playing in back of a 5-on-5 defense that’s better than 28th in the league this season.
But GM Chuck Fletcher built a roster that assumed Ryan Ellis would play a major role on defense and Sean Couturier would be a huge factor at forward. The former is done for the season; the latter is week-to-week with an upper-body injury. Expect lots of young players, growing pains that leave the Flyers doubled over, and some epic Tortorella postgame news conferences as frustration festers.
Central Division
Colorado Avalanche
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
Dallas Stars
Winnipeg Jets
St. Louis Blues
Arizona Coyotes
Chicago Blackhawks
I asked Colorado Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland recently about the hurdles his team has to gallop over to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. The first thing he mentioned was personnel changes. “It’s a new chapter that’s going to need to be written. There’s going to be traps and pitfalls that are going to impact us. But we’re confident in the maturity of our club and think they’ll tackle those inevitable challenges that are head-on,” he told me.
The easiest trap to wriggle from is at No. 2 center, where the Avalanche lost Nazem Kadri to free agency. That blow was immediately softened by having Alex Newhook ready to draw in. He has the potential to equal or surpass Kadri’s offensive output, even if he doesn’t bring the coarse intangibles that made Kadri such a unique player last season.
The most perilous pitfall is the goaltending. When Philipp Grubauer bolted for Seattle in 2021, the Avalanche anted up large for Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper. The bet paid off with a strong regular season and a Stanley Cup playoffs performance that … well, they won, didn’t they? Alexandar Georgiev isn’t Kuemper. The way MacFarland described it, he’s Grubauer 2.0: a backup goalie given the chance to “run with the ball” as a starter. Or, failing that, successfully form a strong tandem with Pavel Francouz, who has a lot of fans in the goaltending community.
The Avalanche could take a small step back because of these changes but remain the class of the West. The only other potential trap: How to replicate the hunger to win once you’ve satisfied it. Although if there’s anything we know about Nathan MacKinnon, it’s how he manages his teammates’ diets.
The effect rookie Matt Boldy had on the Minnesota Wild last season has been noted but undersold: They went 32-11-4 with him in the lineup, as he had 39 points in 47 games. To improve on a 113-point regular season, the Wild are going to need a similar impact from rookie center Marco Rossi, as that’s by far the thinnest area of the team. I think he’s up to the task and should be in the Calder Trophy discussion.
The Wild are incredibly deep on defense. You know what they have up front: Kirill Kaprizov, who finished with 108 points in 81 games and was seventh for the Hart; the unexpected dominance of Ryan Hartman and the welcome return to form of Mats Zuccarello; and the GREEF Line of Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno, one of the best checking lines in hockey. They have enough to absorb the loss Kevin Fiala, whom they couldn’t afford to keep thanks to Zach Parise‘s and Ryan Suter‘s dead cap space.
“I’m not worried at all,” GM Bill Guerin told me. “Kevin’s a good player. Look, I’m sure that Colorado would love to have Kadri back. I’m sure Calgary wanted Gaudreau and Tkachuk back. You lose good players. That’s what happens.”
My main concern with the Wild is in the crease, which isn’t something you’d normally associate with Marc-Andre Fleury, but he had the third-worst goals saved above expected of any goalie last season (min. 40 games). Was that a result of the tumult from his fallout in Vegas and two trades? Or was it the inkling of a decline for a goalie who turns 38 in November? In either case, Filip Gustavsson is a downgrade from Cam Talbot, even if he’s just a placeholder for Jesper Wallstedt.
I loved the Ryan McDonagh move for the Nashville Predators. He was a steadying presence for the Lightning’s defense and will be the same in Nashville. I think Mattias Ekholm is going to absolutely thrive with McDonagh in the lineup. I really liked the Nino Niederreiter signing, too, as a dependable veteran forward on a roster that could use a few more of them. I adore forward Filip Forsberg, defenseman Roman Josi and goalie Juuse Saros, three of the absolute best at what they do in the NHL.
What I don’t love, like or adore: Picking this Nashville team third in the division while knowing how hard the potential regression is going to be for players like Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene. They rode the NHL’s offensive wave to career revivals. If their production falls off a cliff, so do the Predators. I’m more confident in Duchene’s renaissance than that of Johansen, if we’re being honest.
Now comes the hard part: Who from the Blues, Jets and Stars makes the playoff cut? My pick is the Dallas Stars.
I caution you that I might still be dazzled by the line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, the best trio in hockey last season, as well as the postseason heroics of Jake Oettinger. It’s hard to imagine the Hintz line getting any better or Otter playing like Lakeville, Minnesota’s answer to Dominik Hasek for 60 games. But it’s not difficult to see them helping the Stars back to the playoffs if the supporting cast lives up to its promise — assuming Robertson is in the fold quickly and this contract drama ends.
Three key names: Mason Marchment, GM Jim Nill’s big free-agent signing at forward whom I’ve heard they’re really high on this season; Tyler Seguin, finally healthy and ready to find another offensive level under new coach Pete DeBoer; and Miro Heiskanen, who will be handed the keys to the top power-play unit. An additional 10 points from special teams, and I bet he finally enters the Norris Trophy conversation.
Remember this about DeBoer: He doesn’t miss in Year 1. He made Florida a 93-point team that lost out on a playoff spot via a tiebreaker. He brought the Devils and Sharks to the Stanley Cup Final, and Vegas to the conference finals. Sure, it all sours like spoiled milk by Year 3, but Year 1 is all candy and roses.
In case St. Louis Blues fans needed another reason to hate Steve Yzerman — old rivalries die hard — they can blame him if the team misses the playoffs for signing two key players to the Red Wings. I think they’re going to miss David Perron, if not on the top line then specifically on the power play. I think they’re really going to miss Ville Husso in the crease, because Thomas Greiss is about three seasons removed from being the safety net they’ll need him to be for Jordan Binnington in the regular season.
As with Nashville, there’s a regression case to watch with St. Louis. It’s not about specific players but rather an entire team that shot a full percentage point better (12.4%) than anyone else in the NHL, and produced over a half a goal more at 5-on-5 (per 60 minutes) than expected. Combine that with a defense corps whose depth could be ghastly if Colton Parayko doesn’t bounce back, and I think the Blues just miss the cut.
The Winnipeg Jets hired Rick Bowness to do two things: improve their team defense and be the curmudgeonly coach who upsets the status quo, which he did by stripping Blake Wheeler of his captaincy. Out of all the teams in the Central, the Jets might have the widest variance. Maybe Bowness finds a way to get Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Wheeler to “D” it up while staying in an offensive groove. Maybe we talk more about what Pierre-Luc Dubois is doing on the ice rather than where he wants to play in 2023-24 as a restricted free agent. Maybe Nikolaj Ehlers plays 80 games and that makes all the difference. Maybe Connor Hellebuyck does what he used to do, which is drag the Jets to the postseason no matter what’s happening in front of him.
Again, I wouldn’t be surprised if we underestimate this team. Heck, Tom Cruise went back to the jets for a second time and might get an Oscar for it — why couldn’t the same thing happen for Rick Bowness? In the end, I think these Jets score a bunch, let in less, but fall just short of the playoffs like the Blues. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff heads back to the drawing board ahead of the last year of Scheifele’s contract in Winnipeg, and with Dubois’ future uncertain.
I don’t like massive variables clouding my predictions, which is why I’ve struggled to handicap the Arizona Coyotes. How does the team react to playing its 41 home games at a college hockey arena that seats less than 5,000 fans? Is it like a Hollywood sports comedy, where the scrappy team that everyone treats as a joke rises up to demand respectability? Or is this going to be a team that becomes a product of its environment, playing like an outmatched team? I actually think the Coyotes won’t be as bad as they hope to be. For the sake of their draft position, these ASU games better not become a party atmosphere that gives the Yotes an indelible home-ice advantage.
The only three things I can be excited about regarding the Chicago Blackhawks this season: Where Patrick Kane is playing by March, where Jonathan Toews is playing by March and what number Connor Bedard is going to wear as a rookie in Chicago starting in 2023. C’mon, search your feelings. You know this to be true.
Pacific Division
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Vegas Golden Knights
Los Angeles Kings
Vancouver Canucks
Seattle Kraken
Anaheim Ducks
San Jose Sharks
That the Calgary Flames are a better team with Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar than they were with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau has become one of those takes that everything assumes is hot when it’s like winter in Banff. I can see the argument: Huberdeau and Johnny Hockey could be a wash, Kadri replaces Chucky’s truculence while giving the Flames a solid No. 2 center, and Weegar’s an obvious upgrade on defense. But 82 goals scored just walked out the door with Gaudreau and Tkachuk, who obviously contributed to the majority of Elias Lindholm‘s 42 tallies as well. So right now I’m less “better team” than “GM Brad Treliving handled desperate times with some really impressive desperate measures” as the best I can say.
I’d be more concerned about the DNA of a team being rewritten if the DNA of the Flames wasn’t essentially Darryl Sutter’s. The Jack Adams winner had the Flames fifth in expected goals for and third in expected goals against at 5-on-5 last season. His system helped foster a team save percentage of .913 (4th) with 11 shutouts (1st). The Flames might not hit the offensive heights of last season’s team, but they’re a fundamentally sound group that’s going to be right back at the top of the Pacific with Huberdeau and Kadri.
I’ve already spoken a bit about the Edmonton Oilers up top, but let me reiterate that my Stanley Cup prediction is predicated on the Oilers learning to defend at a championship level when necessary and the stabilization of the goaltending position by either Jack Campbell or Stuart Skinner or both. That I find both feasible might be my downfall.
The Vegas Golden Knights would have been a playoff team were it not for a few key injuries down the stretch, most notably to team heart/soul/brain/backbone Mark Stone. Then they did what Vegas does: overreact to any season’s results by trading Max Pacioretty for a bag of air and firing coach Peter DeBoer to bring in Bruce Cassidy, late of the Bruins. They lost Robin Lehner to offseason surgery and opted for (mostly) an internal goaltending fix.
Many have written off the Knights because Lehner’s out, but I think that misses three things:
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Logan Thompson isn’t terrible and could be a sneaky Calder Trophy contender if he competently fills the void left by Lehner.
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Cassidy is implementing a new defensive system that hopefully adds some fortification around that goaltending.
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The Knights are really good in most other areas, from a full season of Jack Eichel to a healthy Stone to the Golden Misfits line at forward, and with Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore anchoring the blue line. That’s good enough to send them back to the playoffs, or in Eichel’s case to the playoffs for the first time.
Oh, and one more thing: They’re absolutely enraged about missing the playoffs and being written off. Remember the last time the Knights got salty for being overlooked?
The Los Angeles Kings are becoming a hipster pick to win the Pacific, and why not? They made the playoffs ahead of their rebuild’s schedule last season, added Kevin Fiala‘s goal-scoring prowess to Anze Kopitar‘s wing in the offseason and have Drew Doughty back from a season-ending injury. They’re deep, talented and haven’t even scratched the surface of what players like Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke are going to give them.
I think that makes them a playoff team, maybe even a third-place team in the Pacific again. But I’m sorry, I’m not buying an encore of the Jonathan Quick renaissance. He played below expected for three straight seasons before finishing seventh in goals saved above expected last season. I don’t think he repeats the feat; and if Cal Petersen can’t bounce back from his rough campaign, the Kings could be subverted by their crease.
I’ve squinted as hard as I could and I still can’t quite see the Vancouver Canucks as a playoff team, unfortunately. I think Thatcher Demko makes a serious Vezina Trophy run as one of the NHL’s better workhorse-type goalies. I look forward to more offensive wizardry from Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. But the newly paid J.T. Miller has had an “every other year” thing offensively, so were not going to see another 99 points from him. The right side of Vancouver’s defense corps is one of the weakest groups in the NHL. The team feels like it’s trying to clean up old messes, contend in the present and set up for the future at the same time, and the result is disorienting.
The Seattle Kraken could be a sneaky long shot to make the playoffs in the Pacific. They were sound defensively last season, fifth in the NHL in expected goals against on average. It’s just that any defensive lapses they made basically turned into goals thanks to the worst goaltending in the NHL, both in team save percentage and analytically. If Philipp Grubauer and Martin Jones, there to play for the injured Chris Driedger, give Seattle anything close to replacement-level efforts, the Kraken could surprise … if the offense improves.
Coach Dave Hakstol’s system left the Kraken 30th in expected goals scored and 28th in goals per game (2.60). There is absolutely no reason a team that added Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky, and will have Calder contender Matty Beniers as its primary center, can’t be significantly better offensively. Well, unless that reason is Hakstol.
The Anaheim Ducks are like a video game. Trevor Zegras is rewriting the programming with his moves. Jamie Drysdale, Kevin Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler and John Klingberg are like the defense you build for your roster that forgoes any stay-at-home guys — well, save for Dmitry Kulikov. Mason McTavish is like an expansion pack that brings hours of entertainment. This team is super fun. I hope the Ducks level up and contend for a longer period time than their brief flirtation with relevance last season. But these Ducks need another year in the nest.
The San Jose Sharks remain stuck in that purgatory between their years of Stanley Cup contention and waiting for whatever the next phase of the franchise looks like. The re-signed Tomas Hertl joins Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic as veterans with trade protection. Timo Meier is a pending restricted free agent making $10 million in base salary this season. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen could give new head coach David Quinn some solid goaltending, but I’m at a loss for where this team is headed or what it’s supposed to be now.