Max Verstappen says he is “taking it day by day” in his quest for his now-inevitable second Formula 1 title, and Sunday could well be the time he can stop counting.
The Red Bull driver starts the Japanese Grand Prix from pole position, having edged out Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc by just 0.01 seconds on Suzuka’s return to the calendar for the first time since 2019, after a break for the pandemic.
It’s as good a start as Verstappen could have hoped for on a weekend when a win with the fastest lap will secure the World Championship, regardless of what anyone else does.
It has been a topsy-turvy weekend, after Friday practice was disrupted by persistent rain, only for qualifying day to be bone dry. The weather forecast suggests the grand prix could be a mix of both. But whatever the weather, Verstappen starts the race as favourite.
Verstappen and Red Bull have been the fastest combination over a race distance for the majority of the year.
Since Leclerc won the Austrian Grand Prix in mid-July, the only time the Dutchman has been beaten was last weekend in Singapore, when Red Bull had an unusual off weekend and he qualified down the grid after a team error, on a track where overtaking is usually difficult.
So, starting from the front, on a circuit that could have been made for this year’s Red Bull with its combination of demanding medium- and high-speed corners and long flat-out sections, it is hard to see how anyone will beat Verstappen, assuming his race is trouble-free.
Verstappen says: “I’m not thinking about it too much. What was most important was we had a competitive car. We had that in qualifying and I hope it will be the same in the race because we do need a perfect race to win it. But at least it is a good start.”
Wet or dry, Verstappen has looked like the pace-setter this weekend in Japan. Ferrari, although still strong in qualifying, have struggled for race pace since the sport returned from its summer break at the end of August.
Realistically, any uncertainty as to the destiny of the race win comes from the weather, and the lack of running the teams have had in race trim after Friday’s wash-out.
“There is not much data to look at,” Leclerc said. “We’re going a little bit into the unknown. But it looks like the conditions are also a little bit unpredictable. We don’t really know whether it is going to rain or not, or maybe both. We will see.”
If anything, the narrow margin between Verstappen and Leclerc on Saturday probably flattered the Ferrari driver.
Leclerc and Ferrari have been the fastest car-driver combination over one lap this year – his nine pole positions are testament to that.
But Verstappen’s fastest time on Saturday was set on his first run, when he was 0.253secs quicker than Leclerc. On his second, Verstappen ran wide at Turn Two, wrecking the lap and also damaging his car, so could not improve. It was on his own second run that Leclerc managed to close the gap – but still he could not beat his rival.
Can Ferrari challenge Verstappen in the race? They will try. But the evidence of the past few races is that they will fall short.
Even in the first part of the season, when the Ferrari had a more marked advantage in qualifying, and things were closer between the two teams in races, the Red Bull was generally faster on a long run.
Since Spa in late August, when a rule change was introduced restricting the way teams could operate their floors, the Ferrari has fallen further behind in races, and been less strong in qualifying. Nothing seen at Suzuka so far this weekend suggests this race will be any different.
Leclerc and Ferrari can still have some say in when the championship is secured by Verstappen.
Beating Verstappen would extend the ‘uncertainty’ to the next race in Austin, Texas.
Failing that, if Verstappen wins, second is enough for Leclerc to keep the season alive as long as the world champion does not set fastest lap.
But even if someone else does have the fastest lap going into the final stages, Verstappen has been so quick on Sundays recently, he may well be able to reclaim it at will, should he need to.
Suzuka proves a challenge for sluggish Mercedes
Can Mercedes join the fight at the front, as they have in recent races? The auguries are not that good. If Suzuka appears designed for the Red Bull, the opposite is true of the silver car.
Mercedes have struggled with too much drag all season. And whereas on slower tracks this is less of a disadvantage, Suzuka requires aerodynamic efficiency. Mercedes have good downforce, but it comes with too much of a penalty. And this weekend it really shows.
Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were at the bottom of the speed-trap times, and the car is haemorrhaging lap time on the straights, the two drivers estimating this accounted for somewhere between 0.6-0.8secs of their 0.957secs deficit to pole.
After qualifying, Hamilton, who qualified sixth with Russell eighth, underlined the difficulties the Mercedes drivers will have overtaking anyone in the race, even with the use of the DRS overtaking aid.
“The Red Bull is still quicker on the straight with no DRS than we are with DRS,” he said “Rain opens up more opportunity. It could be not the most exciting race if it’s dry, at least not for us.”
De Vries finally gets F1 chance
Off track, the delay in the announcement of certificates of compliance – or otherwise – with last season’s budget cap has led to a low-key weekend with few distractions from the action. A cynic might even suggest this was governing body the FIA’s hope.
The only news of note has been the long-expected announcement that Pierre Gasly will move to Alpine to replace Fernando Alonso, and that Red Bull have signed Nick de Vries to fill the Frenchman’s seat at their Alpha Tauri team.
At 27, De Vries finally gets the F1 chance that he thought for a while had escaped him. He was the Formula 2 champion in 2019, but a lack of opportunities on the grid led to a move to Formula E. It has needed a series of recent unexpected developments to give him his dream shot.
Alpine’s mishandling of their driver situation – losing not only Alonso but also their protege Oscar Piastri after their prevarications annoyed both of them – led to their interest in Gasly. Red Bull made it clear to Alpine they were willing to release Gasly, at a price. And when they were unable to convince the FIA to grant IndyCar driver Colton Herta a super-licence, De Vries grabbed his chance.
He was already being mentioned as a contender at Alpha Tauri before his impressive last-minute debut at last month’s Italian Grand Prix. But the deal was sealed when he scored two points for ninth place at Monza having only got into the car on Saturday morning when Alex Albon was hospitalised with appendicitis.
De Vries is a long-time friend of Verstappen. And the soon-to-be two-time champion said on Saturday that he had played a role – however small – in the decision by Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko.
“[De Vries] has been pushing hard for it for a long time and to finally get the opportunity is amazing for him. After Monza there was no real discussion any more,” Verstappen said.
“Helmut is a guy who, when he likes something, he is daring enough to put him in the car, whereas maybe other teams are a bit more careful.
“We are good friends as well. We had a dinner the day after Monza and I told him, like, just give him [Marko] a call. You never know what happens. And it was also the right time to call him – Helmut is still probably excited on a Monday from the race on a Sunday.
“So it worked out really well. And I’m very happy for him.”
