Passan: Why a winter meetings frenzy could be brewing — and who could sign in San Diego

Just one year and one day ago, the wildest 24 hours in the history of baseball free agency unfolded. With the inevitability of a lockout by the league placing an artificial deadline on transactions, teams rushed to sign free agents, and over a 24-hour period from Nov. 28-29, they guaranteed nearly $1 billion.

No such urgency has graced this offseason. None of the eight free agents projected to receive the largest deals have signed. The biggest contract thus far, a $102 million deal for New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz, happened the day after the World Series, nearly four weeks ago. Not even the low end of the market is moving. About 100 free agents who did not receive a qualifying offer are expected to command major league deals. Seven have signed.

That could soon change. MLB’s winter meetings kick off Sunday in San Diego, and across the sport, executives and agents anticipate a flurry of action to finally initiate the inexorable winter frenzy. Aaron Judge could conclude his free agency by agreeing to a deal. The starting pitching glut could ease. Even the shortstop market, with four nine-figure players and twice as many teams expressing genuine interest, could start to move, with the rest of the dominoes falling quickly.

In reality, a wide swath of people involved in free agency told ESPN, the dam started breaking Monday, when both free agent and trade calls between teams started to pick up. Whatever the true reason for the inaction — front offices slow-playing, players sticking firm to high demands or, likelier, a combination of both — all the flirtation and posturing that has become the norm in baseball offseasons eventually gives way to the truth that teams need players, players need jobs and those needs find common ground.

Next week’s meetings provide a fertile backdrop for those compromises. An annual gathering of the sport taking place in person for the first time since 2019, the winter meetings feature no deadline, no imperative. Some have flown by with nary a transaction of significance. But executives and agents agree that this incarnation is shaping up to drop a couple Mentos in a soda bottle and that the real movement could start Friday or Saturday before the meetings begin and extend beyond their Wednesday conclusion.

Nobody will elicit more attention than Judge, the 30-year-old outfielder whose 62 home runs this season earned him a near-unanimous American League MVP award. Judge’s free agency, sources involved said, is primed to end in a record-setting deal at the meetings, exceeding the previous high average annual value for a position player of $35.5 million for Mike Trout. The New York Yankees, whose chief desire this offseason is to retain Judge, have an offer on the table in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million and could increase it, depending on how far the San Francisco Giants — the other top suitor — are willing to push the market. Across the industry, the expectation is that Judge re-signs, but it’s worth remembering: The last time the highest-paid free agent remained with his current team was Yoenis Cespedes with the Mets in 2016. And before that, it was Matt Holliday in 2009.

The Yankees hope that Judge is the exception. In addition to money and familiarity, they have the team captaincy to offer. Granted, familiarity did little for Corey Seager, George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper, Eric Hosmer, David Price, Max Scherzer, Robinson Cano, Zack Greinke, Albert Pujols and Carl Crawford, the non-Cespedes and Holliday predecessors atop the free agency food chain. Thus, the tension heading to San Diego: Just how wedded to the Yankees is Judge, and how wedded to Judge are the Yankees?

Once Judge’s decision is made — or, better put, once the Yankees’ intentions are set — the rest of the high-end market could move, perhaps quickly, sources said.

Should Judge spurn them, the Yankees will need to act fast. Their first move could be to back away from their intention to go with a rookie shortstop — Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe — and pivot toward a free agent class filled with stars at the position. Carlos Correa could be the first off the board — his market is already excellent, with the Minnesota Twins making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around his talent, according to sources. Trea Turner has no shortage of admirers and, like Correa, should snag a deal in excess of $250 million. Xander Bogaerts should do very well, whether it’s in Boston for the rest of his career or with a new team — Philadelphia, Chicago, Arizona and Los Angeles all are interested. And though Dansby Swanson‘s bat falls short of his peers’, he is the only shortstop of the four certain to remain at the position well into his deal, which sources expect to run at least six seasons.

Meanwhile, a number of executives and agents envision at least some parts of the starting pitching market moving soon, with Carlos Rodon especially and Jacob deGrom both contenders to sign within the next week. DeGrom’s list of teams with genuine interest abounds — even if he remains the Mets’ top priority, his return is no fait accompli — and Rodon, coming off a career year, fits just about anywhere.

Another top starter with behind-the-scenes action that could portend a San Diego signing: right-hander Chris Bassitt, with the Mets hoping for a return. Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon — whose markets are far more robust without the qualifying offer saddling them — along with Ross Stripling are also possibilities to come off the board. Left-hander Andrew Heaney is a high-risk, high-reward play whose limited term — he’s unlikely to get more than three years — works in his favor. Once the top names are spoken for, Zach Eflin and Jose Quintana could fill in the gaps. And lurking is a barrage of one-year candidates: Sean Manaea looking for a bounce-back, Corey Kluber looking for another solid season, Johnny Cueto, Michael Lorenzen, Michael Wacha and Kyle Gibson.

Not on that list is Noah Syndergaard, whose market remains nascent. Syndergaard is using the offseason to entice the widest set of options possible: Like Kodai Senga, he has been working out at Driveline Baseball’s outpost in Scottsdale, Arizona. No longer able to reach 100 mph as he did regularly early in his career, Syndergaard this winter is relying on data to improve his mechanics and refine his pitches after visits to Driveline and Tread Athletics, two noted pitching factories. In free agency, where an extra mile or two per hour can amount to millions, there are multiple paths to a desired outcome.

Two teams to keep an eye on when the pitching dominoes start to fall: the Texas Rangers, who are still surveying everything from elite aces to middling starters, and the Baltimore Orioles, who are hunting for a pair of starters as their ascent in the AL East continues. When the cost of a back-end starting pitcher is in the $12 million-a-year range — Texas traded for Jake Odorizzi, who exercised a $12.5 million player option, and the Chicago White Sox agreed to a $12 million deal with Mike Clevinger, though it is not official — it illustrates the game’s changing economics and the difficult decisions teams will have to navigate.

Along with pitchers, outfielders could be another position group that comes into focus in San Diego. Mitch Haniger‘s market is robust, and Michael Conforto — who was a free agent last year, didn’t sign before the lockout, suffered a shoulder injury and missed the season — figures to get a multiyear deal with an opt-out after the first season. The outfield shuffle could accelerate when Arizona moves one of its young, left-handed hitters — not Corbin Carroll, though — and if the St. Louis Cardinals alleviate their surfeit.

The meetings, executives said, could see plenty of trades in addition to the free agent signings. Though free agency has moved at a snail’s pace, the biggest name non-QO signings — first baseman Jose Abreu and right-handed relievers Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero — have exceeded industry projections. The higher the prices in free agency — regardless of the reason, even if it’s World Series champion Houston spending more heavily than anticipated on Abreu and Montero — the more compelling the trade market becomes.

If the Oakland A’s are going to move catcher Sean Murphy, teams could press them in San Diego. Toronto doesn’t want to twiddle its thumbs anymore, and dealing one of its catchers — All-Star Alejandro Kirk, top prospect Gabriel Moreno or veteran Danny Jansen, who had a career year but would return by far the least — is on the Blue Jays’ to-do list.

Others could move, whether Detroit relievers Gregory Soto and Alex Lange, Seattle outfielder Jesse Winker and starters Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen, or Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres.

What it all adds up to is the inescapability of some kind of movement next week. For every Judge or deGrom megadeal, there will be a handful of smaller signings or trades that might not create the same ripple effect but nonetheless help thaw what’s been frozen. Sometimes it takes just a couple moves to signal that it’s go time — that almost a month of dithering is set to give way to a $3 billion spending bonanza.

It’s coming. Maybe not as fast as the rabid hot stove watchers wanted, but it’s coming.