There’s NHL draft hype, and then there’s what heralds the arrival of Connor Bedard. He’s been called “magical” and “otherworldly,” a player that can “change the fortunes of a franchise” by himself.
While NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has proclaimed that his teams don’t tank, there are a handful this season that seem OK with a slight downtick in success in the hopes of drafting the 17-year-old center from the WHL’s Regina Pats next summer. Fans of those potential lottery teams have adopted some variation of “Fail/Tank/Lose Hard for Bedard” as a 2022-23 battle cry.
Any challenge to Bedard’s status as the presumptive first overall pick would be noteworthy. The fact that it appeared to come from the mouth of the presumptive second overall pick, 18-year-old center Adam Fantilli of the University of Michigan, made that challenge pretty interesting.
In an interview with TSN last summer, Fantilli was asked if he could “challenge” Bedard’s status as the 2023 NHL draft’s top prospect
“Yeah, absolutely. I feel like I can be a contender for anybody in this draft,” was his response.
The ensuing headline? “Fantilli ‘absolutely’ feels he can challenge Bedard for top pick in 2023 draft.”
Several months and several draft rankings later, Fantilli doesn’t believe his comments were framed correctly after that interview.
“That’s not what was said. They asked me if I felt like I could compete with anybody in a draft and I said ‘absolutely,'” he told ESPN recently (and revising history a bit). “I do my best to push [Bedard]. I know he pushes me. So it’s a good relationship.”
They’re teammates now, too. North Vancouver, British Columbia native Bedard and Fantilli, from Nobleton in Ontario, both made the roster for the Canadian world junior team seeking a second straight gold medal at the IIHF under-20 world junior championship tournament set to begin in Halifax and Moncton next week.
“Obviously Connor’s an amazing player. He is an amazing guy,” Fantilli said. “Like, we’re buddies. We’re hanging out and stuff like that.”
The NHL draft is an exciting place when there are multiple players trying to stake a claim for the first overall pick. Taylor Hall vs. Tyler Seguin in 2010. Auston Matthews vs. Patrik Laine in 2016. Nico Hischier vs. Nolan Patrick in 2017. Then, in 2022, the shocking moment when presumed first overall pick Shane Wright tumbled to No. 4 when the Montreal Canadiens selected Slovakia’s Juraj Slafkovsky at No. 1.
Given their contrasting styles and personalities, Bedard vs. Fantilli would be another great battle of the prospects. But Craig Button, a former NHL general manager who has become one of the NHL draft’s most prominent pundits, doesn’t see it that close.
“I think it’s 2015 all over again,” Button said.
That’s the year another Connor — Connor McDavid — inspired teams to do whatever it took to increase their lottery odds to select him. The Edmonton Oilers drafted him first overall ahead of Jack Eichel, who went to the Buffalo Sabres.
“As good as Jack Eichel is, he’s not in that next class of player like McDavid,” Button said. “And as good as Fantilli is, I think Connor Bedard changes the fortunes of a franchise.”
The magical world of Bedard
“His shot.”
It’s the first thing anyone mentions when they begin to describe the virtues of Connor Bedard. Canadian junior team GM James Boyd remembers marveling at it, on film and in person.
“He can shoot from anywhere,” Boyd said. “With his arms extended. With the puck in between his skates. While pulling the puck into his body. Sometimes it seems like the puck travels three or four feet before he releases it, but he can release it at any time. He makes it tough for the defenders because he uses them as a screen.”
Bob McKenzie, the venerable prospect analyst from TSN, said Bedard has an “otherworldly” release on his shot.
“He’s not a big guy. He uses a stick that’s just so whippy on the flex,” he said. “I don’t think I’ve seen anybody coming through junior hockey release the puck off his stick like this guy does.”
In bantam hockey back in 2018-19, Bedard scored 64 goals in 30 games. At West Vancouver Prep, he scored 43 goals in 36 games. He had 51 goals in 62 games for the Pats in 2021-22 and is scoring nearly a goal per game this season in the WHL, with 27 goals through 28 games.
“He’s almost magical. I never thought I’d say that about him,” Button said. “He was quick and he was fast and he was allusive and everything. But he’s got a magical quality to him.”
😱 Goal of the year from Connor Bedard 😱
This isn’t up for discussion.@CHLHockey | @TheWHL | @BarDown | @HeyBarber pic.twitter.com/vxiVe7nHWr
— Regina Pats (@WHLPats) February 6, 2022
In 2020, Bedard became the seventh player to receive “exceptional player” status by Hockey Canada to play a full season in the Western Hockey League as a 15-year-old. (Players can be drafted that young in the WHL, but are maxed out at five games.) The other players previously granted exceptional status by Hockey Canada include Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares (2005), Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad (2011) and McDavid (2012).
His first season in the WHL was played inside a “bubble” due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When the Regina Pats hit the road again in 2021-22, Bedard overcome a slow start by his standards to post 100 points in 62 games.
Expectations, already high, were now reaching the stratosphere.
Pundits like McKenzie had seen this before.
“I was just thinking to myself, and I didn’t say it publicly, that we should just pump the brakes a little bit,” he said. “I’ve learned that over the years with these ‘phenoms.’ It’s in fairness to them. Our society and social media and everybody wants to make everyone the biggest thing ever and hype it. Let’s just be sensible a little bit here. Recognize that there’s something special in these kids, but don’t set the bar unsustainably high.”
McKenzie struggled to find a comparable player to Bedard. He didn’t see Mike Bossy play in juniors, but the way Bedard plays reminds him of the New York Islanders‘ Hall of Famer who scored 573 goals in 752 NHL games.
“Bossy wasn’t this overwhelming physical package and neither is Bedard. He’s not Eric Lindros or Mario Lemieux,” McKenzie said. “He doesn’t even give you the power of a guy like [Steven] Stamkos when he was coming up. He’s not fast so much as he’s quick. He’s not big so much as he’s hockey strong. But it’s not just the shot. He can make plays, too. His hands are unbelievable.”
Button sees some Trevor Zegras in Bedard.
“Bedard’s shifty. There’s sleight of hand,” he said. “He’s an excellent skater, but the magical part is along the Zegras lines.”
What sets him apart from other young players, according to Button, is the “hockey brain” inside Bedard’s head.
“I call him ‘a problem solver in real time,'” Button said. “He sees what opponents are doing. And he so quickly recognizes it and then adapts to be able to take advantage. You don’t see that very often.”
Boyd refers to that as Bedard’s “sixth sense” on the ice.
“He knows how much time and space he has, and how much pressure is on him at any time,” Boyd said. “He has that uncanny ability to get lost and then reappear at just the right moment. He’s an elusive player. Even though all eyes are on him.”
Bedard’s defense needs improvement. That isn’t anything out of ordinary. As Button sees it, it’s also besides the point.
“I literally laugh because I’ve heard this from a few places now: That he’s gonna have to be better defensively. Do you know why you’re drafting him?” he said. “At some point and time, you’re going to round out your game. But he has the puck all the time. He averages a goal a game and two points a game. So, you know, what’s the problem?”
Bedard admitted that his defense needs improvement, and it’s one of the things he’s working on before the draft.
“Being that 200-foot player. And being a leader,” he told The Team radio in Vancouver. “This is my first year wearing the ‘C’ [in Regina], so just learning that.”
Connor Bedard pushes his point streak to 26 games!🚨
(🎥: @WHLPats)
pic.twitter.com/H69yxGk8YK— TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 3, 2022
Boyd said not to expect a boisterous leader in Bedard. “He’s quiet. He’s engaged with his teammates, but I wouldn’t say he’s outspoken,” he said. “He’s a got a workmanlike attitude.”
In other words, he falls into the grand tradition of dynamic Canadian-born players with muted personalities that have gone first overall in the draft, from Tavares to McDavid.
“We preach humility, but we always want the opposite when it comes to marketing the players, right?” Boyd said.
Fantilli, by contrast, has a bit more personality. “He’s enthusiastic off the ice and on the ice. I don’t think I’ve seen him have a bad day,” the GM noted.
It’s just one of the differences between the projected first and second overall picks next summer — some larger than others.
The towering Fantilli
Adam Fantilli was around 12 years old when he hit his growth spurt.
“I got tall but I was lanky. Like, I didn’t really fill out my body that well,” he said. “When I did, I had to learn how to use it to my advantage as much as I can.”
Today, he’s listed at 6-foot-2. Bedard is listed at 5-10.
“Every time I see Adam, he’s bigger, from watching him in summer camps to minor hockey to Michigan to here. He’s wider. He’s taller,” Boyd said.
Scouts have been impressed with the growth of his physical game — not just finishing checks but playing more of a power forward role on the forecheck. There’s a speed and ferocity with which Fantilli plays that sets him apart from Bedard.
“The minute Fantilli gets on the ice, he’s thinking ‘attack.’ He’s really terrific in that regard,” Button said. “He’s got the speed and the size, but he’s always driving [to the net]. He’s relentless. Adam has the size, the will and the skill. He’s a dog on the bone — in and around the net with the puck.”
Fantilli laughed at the canine comparison.
“I can see how he might have said that,” he said. “When you become really, really competitive, you know that getting close to the net is where most goals are scored. Getting there at all costs is one of the things that I focus on.”
Adam Fantilli is going to light up World Juniors pic.twitter.com/5BBqIR2FlP
— EVERYTHING COLLEGE HOCKEY (@TeamECH) December 12, 2022
Fantilli caught a lot of attention in the 2019 Ontario Hockey League Showcase Cup, which is a spotlight tournament for minor players from the province. All eyes were on Shane Wright, as well as highly regarded prospect Brennan Othmann. Fantilli was 14 years old at the time, an underage center with the Toronto Red Wings. Already, his combination of size and speed were startling.
Fantilli went to the U.S. to play with his brother, defenseman Luca Fantilli, at the Top Gun hockey academy and the Kimball Union Academy in New Hampshire. He moved over to the USHL in 2020-21 with the Chicago Steel. From there, it was a recruiting process. Luca Fantilli went to Michigan. Adam followed suit, both wanting to be close to home and part of a top-tier NCAA program.
Brandon Naurato, the Wolverines coach, told The Michigan Daily that Adam Fantilli embodied the virtues of a few recent Michigan stars.
“He can shoot it like [Brendan] Brisson, he competes and has a two way game like [Matty] Beniers, he’s got hands and vision like [Thomas] Bordeleau,” Naurato said. “He’s special.”
Then there’s the speed with which he moves.
“He’s got the ability to go from zero to top speed in two or three steps, which catches defenders flat-footed,” Boyd said. “If he gets a step on the defender and he takes it to the net, it’s really tough to defend and creates havoc because of his size.”
Because of these attributes, Button sees a high NHL ceiling for Fantilli.
“He’s a first-line center. There’s no question about that,” he said. “When you watch him play, and the skill level he possesses, I think he falls into that category of being more of a goal-scorer than a playmaker. But he will make plays, because he’ll draw opponents to him.”
It’s that combination of skill that has Fantilli near the top of most draft boards with Bedard.
But could he surpass him?
Connor vs. Adam
Bob McKenzie gets asked about the draft almost every day. His rankings on TSN start the kind of conversations in Canada that, say, Mel Kiper’s do for the NFL draft in the U.S.
“At the beginning of the season, people would ask if I seriously saw Fantilli challenging Bedard for first overall. It would be easy to say ‘no,’ because Bedard is that dynamic and that good,” McKenzie said.
It’s not likely he passes Bedard, but McKenzie does see a lane for Fantilli. He’s a 6-foot-3 natural center with terrific offensive skills, and players like that don’t come around often. McKenzie notes that there are some scouts who believe Bedard may eventually play the wing in the NHL, reigniting the old “center vs. wing” franchise player argument that’s been a hallmark of the draft.
If it’s a true franchise center one seeks, Fantilli might be the purer option — especially if a team is in search for a force at center.
“There’s a more powerful element to his game probably than Bedard,” McKenzie said.
As last season’s draft showed us, there’s always room for surprises. Bedard himself tried to downplay expectations In October, telling Vancouver radio, “I’m not a lock for first or anything. I’ve got a lot of hockey left to play.”
But based on the hockey that’s been played, it’s hard not to see Bedard atop the leaderboard for the 2023 NHL draft.
Since the preseason, Bedard has topped nearly all prominent draft rankings, while Fantilli has been ranked either second or third. Both Corey Pronman of The Athletic and Chris Peters of FloHockey had him second on their influential rankings in November.
The anticipation for the 2023 draft isn’t just restricted to Bedard and Fantilli. The top of the board is loaded with impact talent. There’s right wing Matvei Michkov, a dynamic Russian who’s signed in the KHL through 2025-26. There’s center Leo Carlsson, a Swede who stands an inch taller than Fantilli but lacks the Michigan star’s speed.
“Carlsson’s another really good skilled center. It’ll be a really great thing on New Year’s Eve when we have all three of those players — and in my opinion, the three best players in the draft — on the ice in the same game,” Button said, noting the date when Canada is set to meet Sweden in world juniors.
Adam Fantilli. SILKY. pic.twitter.com/MmqTC5Ukkx
— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) November 27, 2022
The teams that “Fail/Tank/Lose Hard for Bedard” but don’t win the lottery are still going to come away with a phenomenal player. As the NHL season progresses, we’re getting a better sense of who those teams might end up being. The current have-nots: The Chicago Blackhawks (.300 points percentage), Anaheim Ducks (.328), Columbus Blue Jackets (.367) and San Jose Sharks (.394).
Does Fantilli check the standings?
“I haven’t checked them once this year,” he said. “But I watch a lot of hockey. So I have an idea of who our teams are.”
Both Bedard and Fantilli preach the same focus in the months leading up to the NHL draft: head down, work hard, help their respective teams win. They’re in a unique position as the two highest-ranked Canadian prospects, and they’re experiencing the hype and stresses that come with it together.
“We talk about it sometimes. Just, like, joke about it. So that helps us,” Fantilli said.
Boyd believes the two young standouts are approaching their paths to the draft the right way.
“It’s a new world for these guys. There’s so much pressure directed at these guys,” he said. “The media attention makes it harder and harder for them to enjoy things and not get sidetracked or inundated with workload unrelated to hockey. My advice is not to get bogged down by negativity. You’ve gotta carve out time for yourself and focus on the right things. Like school. Like family. And hockey.”