Today, we sit exactly six months out from the 2023 All-Star Game in Seattle so instead of continuing to wait — and wait — on the final free agent news, it is a perfect time to look ahead to the upcoming season by picking our way-too-early All-Stars.
We’ll pick the 32-man rosters with 20 position players and 12 pitchers (eight starters, four relievers) — and, yes, each team needs a representative. Which might be an issue.
One interesting thing happened in the majors in 2022 that we should keep in mind, with baseball a sport where we so often hear about the next generation of young stars: The best position players got older. They are the oldest, in fact, since 2014. I looked at the top 30 position players each season using Baseball-Reference WAR and the average age in 2022 was 27.8 — with 10 of the 30 players in their 30s, also the most since 2014:
2014: 27.9 (11)
2015: 27.4 (6)
2016: 27.6 (8)
2017: 27.1 (7)
2018: 26.8 (4)
2019: 26.1 (3)
2021: 27.4 (7)
2022: 27.8 (10)
The top three players — Aaron Judge, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt — were also all in their 30s, the first time that’s happened since 2001 with Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Jason Giambi.
What’s happened? There was no shortage of excellent young players to crack the top 30: Julio Rodriguez, Steven Kwan, Michael Harris II and Adley Rutschman all made it as rookies and Andres Gimenez, in his age-23 season, ranked fourth in WAR at 7.4. Some young players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette weren’t quite as good and fell out of the top 30 or, in the case of Fernando Tatis Jr., didn’t play at all. Mostly, however, the star players in their late 20s and early 30s have managed to remain stars, not just the three above, but Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, J.T. Realmuto and Jose Altuve — all 29 or older in 2022.
What does it mean for the distribution of stars across the sport? Here is our first look at who could be representing both leagues on July 11 in Seattle.
American League
Catcher: Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Backups: Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays; Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
After several down years in catching depth across the majors — in 2019, four of the five top catchers in WAR were journeyman types Mitch Garver, Roberto Perez, Robinson Chirinos and James McCann — we’re finally seeing an upswing with some young backstops rising to stardom. Kirk was an All-Star last year and with the Blue Jays trading away Gabriel Moreno, he should continue to split his time between catcher and DH. Rutschman, however, is going to be the big star here. The best rookie seasons among catchers since 1969 belong to Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Thurman Munson, Rutschman, Jim Sundberg and Buster Posey — two Hall of Famers, one potential future Hall of Famer, one near Hall of Famer and the Yadier Molina of his era in six-time Gold Glove winner Sundberg. Once he got settled in, Rutschman hit .275/.399/.462 in the second half. Raleigh is already a Mariners legend for his pinch-hit, walk-off, playoff-clinching home run, and look for a 30-homer year after he hit 27 home runs with a .774 OPS in his first full season.
First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Backup: Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers; Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
One thing we might learn over the next few years is that a lot of hitters actually put up their career years in 2019 and 2021 — the two lively ball seasons. Guerrero’s numbers dropped significantly last season, along with many other players, and it’s possible that 2021 will end up being his best season. But he’s still just 24 and if he can get that launch angle back up, he’ll hit 40 home runs again. Lowe quietly hit .302/.358/.492 (including .339 in the second half) and if he can combine his power of 2022 (27 home runs) with his patience of 2021 (80 walks), that’s an All-Star. Pasquantino hit .295 with more walks than strikeouts in 72 games as a rookie. We did need a Royals representative on the roster, but this dude can flat hit and has the tools to make it on merit.
Second base: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Backup: Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians
This ended up being a three players for two spots debate with Marcus Semien drawing the short straw. Altuve had his best season since his 2017 MVP year — he matched that season with a 160 OPS+ and finished fifth in the 2022 AL MVP voting. He’ll be entering his age-33 season, so you do have to start worrying about his age, but I’ll predict a ninth All-Star appearance. Is Gimenez really a 7-WAR player? Unlikely. Although posting that at age 23 puts him in elite company. In fact, via Baseball-Reference, it’s the second-best season for a 23-year-old second baseman, behind only Hall of Famer Eddie Collins. A lot of his skills are of the less subtle variety: Great defense, speed on the bases, getting hit by 25 pitches — and a .353 BABIP that might be difficult to repeat. But I like his all-around game and the defense gives him a high floor.
Third base: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
Backup: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Another close call, but Devers has yet to dethrone Ramirez, so the perennial MVP candidate Ramirez gets the starting nod. Even if they’re equals as hitters, Ramirez still has the edge in the field and on the bases. Alex Bregman finally bounced back in the second half, hitting .287/.379/.515, but most of that came in one big month in August when he hit .362. He still feels like he’s No. 3 here. Sleeper: Orioles rookie Gunnar Henderson, who hit well in his 34-game cameo and retains rookie status. He might end up playing both third base and shortstop, but his best position will be hitter. And don’t forget Anthony Rendon, but after two injury-plagued seasons, it’s hard to envision a return to All-Star status.
Shortstop: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Backup: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays; Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Even with the departure of Xander Bogaerts to the National League this remains a fun position. Bichette’s defense is still a bit problematic, but after a slow start at the plate last season, he got back on track and hit .337 in the second half, including .406 in September. He has led the AL in hits the past two years and at age 25, the combination of youth and experience has him primed for a huge season.
Franco, on the other hand, started off the 2022 season hitting like we expected (.331 through his first 28 games), but then injuries set in and he ended up at .277 in 83 games. The bat-to-ball skills remain elite, he’s still young and he’s a solid defender. This might be the batting title many predicted last season. A career .297 hitter with the Dodgers, Seager hit .245 with the Rangers, but some of that was just bad luck and the elimination of the shift should mean he gets back to his normal numbers. According to Sports Info Solutions, no hitter lost more hits to the shift in 2022 than Seager. I’m looking for a big offensive rebound from him, so he gets the nod over Carlos Correa as a third shortstop. Sadly, I couldn’t quite find room for Astros postseason sensation Jeremy Pena. He won the Gold Glove, but I’d like to see a little better plate discipline before I buy into what we saw in October.
Outfielders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Backups: Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros; Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox; Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
Any arguments on the starters? Judge, Trout and Rodriguez were the top three among AL outfielders in WAR last season (counting Yordan Alvarez as a DH) and Rodriguez should join Judge and Trout as winners of the fan vote in 2023.
Tucker has hit 30 homers in back-to-back seasons, stole 25 bases and plays good D. Look for that .257 average to jump back up closer to 2021’s .294 mark. In the yearly “Who will stay healthier, Luis Robert or Byron Buxton, because if they do, watch out” debate, I’m going with Robert. Not including Miguel Cabrera’s honorary addition in 2022, the Tigers’ All-Stars the past four All-Star Games have been Gregory Soto (twice), Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez, so maybe their rep should be a reliever. Greene hit just five home runs as a rookie, a bit disappointing given his minor league production in 2021 (24 home runs), but he’s just 22 and let’s be honest, it’s more fun predicting a breakout for him than picking Jason Foley in the bullpen.
I couldn’t find room for four-time All-Star George Springer, but he’s always a strong candidate if he stays healthy and new Toronto teammate Daulton Varsho is an interesting power/defense combo after coming over from Arizona. Steven Kwan will have to prove his throwback style of putting the ball in play will work as well again.
Designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Backup: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
The only issue here is I wouldn’t be surprised if Alvarez spends more time in left field than DH, with Michael Brantley taking over more of the DH duties for the Astros. That would make Ohtani the easy call as the starter and clouds the outfield picture. Time for a rant: It’s time to eliminate the rule that two DHs must be selected. It’s fine when those choices are Alvarez and Ohtani, but only three players hit 500 times as a DH last season: Ohtani, J.D. Martinez and Nelson Cruz. Only four others hit even 400 times: Dan Vogelbach, Miguel Cabrera, Franmil Reyes and Luke Voit. Maybe Giancarlo Stanton gets there in 2023, but he hit .211/.297/.462 last season. Yes, DH is a “position,” but few teams have a full-time DH these days. Let’s at least eliminate the backup DH selection for the All-Star Game and make room for another position player when warranted.
Starting pitchers: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers; Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels; Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees; Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees; Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox; Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays; Framber Valdez, Houston Astros; Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
It’s a better baseball world with a healthy Jacob deGrom, so let’s be optimistic that he’s healthy — and if he is, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the league. With six or seven quality starters, I suspect the Rangers will play it safe and use a six-man rotation, at least to start the season, but deGrom can still pitch enough innings to reach All-Star status. Ohtani raised his pitching to another level last season, a reminder that he was more prized as a pitcher than a hitter when he first came over. Cole will start Opening Day for the Yankees, but don’t be surprised if it’s Rodon who starts the first game of the playoffs. He led the NL last year in FIP and SO/9.
I’ll be curious to see what happens to the AL Central pitchers with the more balanced schedule. I have Cease making it here, but not Shane Bieber, who had a 2.28 ERA within the division and 3.57 out of it. He won’t have quite as many cupcake starts against the Royals and Tigers. I put the two Astros pitchers over Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays and with the game in Seattle, don’t be surprised if one or two of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby rise to All-Star status. In general, however, with the new shift rules I’m giving a slight edge to the strikeout pitchers. Manoah’s strikeout and whiff rates are both average, so he’ll need to excel again at limiting hard contact.
Relievers: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians; Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners; Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins; Zach Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Clase is the easy call here coming off back-to-back seasons with ERAs of 1.29 and 1.36. He doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like Mets closer Edwin Diaz, but that’s because batters just hit a lot of weak grounders against that lethal cutter/slider combo. Munoz should take over as the Mariners’ closer after racking up 96 strikeouts in 65 innings while averaging 100.2 mph with his fastball. Duran ends up being my only Twins representative, but I have him making it on merit. Jorge Lopez might be the team’s closer, but Duran will be the team’s best reliever and, like Munoz, he averaged over 100 mph with his heater (100.8). Finally, we need somebody from the A’s. If Dany Jimenez isn’t recovered from his sore shoulder, Jackson could end up as the closer after holding batters to a .171 average as a rookie with 67 K’s in 48 innings.
National League
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
Backup: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
Realmuto is entering his age-32 season and carried a heavy workload in 2022, starting 130 games (14 more than any other catcher) in the regular season and then playing every inning of 17 playoff games. His athleticism is top shelf and he’s coming off a seventh-place finish in the MVP vote and a Gold Glove. Smith is third among catchers in WAR over the past three seasons but is still seeking his first All-Star appearance. He gets the nod over new Braves catcher Sean Murphy, new Cardinals backstop Willson Contreras (last year’s starter) and new Brewers catcher William Contreras, who actually started last year’s All-Star Game at the DH position.
First base: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Backups: Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals; Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Can we squeeze three first basemen on the roster? It’s not a slam dunk, but we’ll try. You might recall that three first basemen originally made it last year: Goldschmidt as the starter, Alonso as the backup and C.J. Cron as the Rockies’ representative. Freeman eventually made it only as an injury replacement. Freeman was the All-Star starter in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so let’s put Freeman back at No. 1 (I’m projecting some regression from Goldschmidt after his MVP season). Alonso could certainly win the fan vote, and he’s going to drive in a ton of runs once again after leading the majors with 131. I hate to leave off Matt Olson and Arizona’s Christian Walker, who quietly hit 36 home runs and won a Gold Glove, but I had no choice.
Second base: Jeff McNeil, New York Mets
Backup: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
Outside of DH, NL second base is probably the weakest position across the two leagues. Jake Cronenworth is moving to first base for the Padres, the Dodgers’ Gavin Lux appears to be headed to shortstop and Tommy Edman will likely get most of his time at shortstop as well, with Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan sharing second base for the Cardinals.
McNeil is probably the safest pick here. He’s a two-time All-Star who won the batting title in 2022 and has hit over .300 in four of his five big league seasons. Certainly, we haven’t forgotten about Jazz Chisholm Jr., voted in as the starter a year ago but unable to play because of injury. Indeed, he ended up playing just 60 games, although he belted 14 home runs. Hoerner, meanwhile, slides over to second from shortstop to accommodate Dansby Swanson. He hit .281/.327/.410 with 10 home runs and 20 steals and excellent defensive metrics that could make him the Gold Glove favorite at second. Arizona’s Ketel Marte has thrived in the juiced-ball seasons (2019, 2021), but his offense was down in 2022 with a .240 average and 12 home runs. Luis Garcia of the Nationals has tools, but swings at everything. We’ll need to figure out somebody else to represent the league’s worst team.
Third base: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Backup: Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves; Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Dang it, I’m just going to put all three on the roster — and you can really put them in any order after they finished second (Machado), third (Arenado) and sixth (Riley) in the 2022 MVP voting. Machado started last year with Arenado the backup and Riley making it only when Arenado missed the game due to injury. For 2023, I’m going Machado-Riley-Arenado, with Machado’s defense giving him the slight edge over Riley and Riley getting the slight edge over Arenado based on power and age. Defensive whiz Ke’Bryan Hayes could certainly end up repping the Pirates, but I can’t take him over three MVP candidates.
Shortstop: Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
Backup: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
This is another deep position with Bogaerts moving over to the NL, plus Swanson coming off a career season, Willy Adames coming off a 31-homer, 98-RBI season with excellent defense and the underrated, versatile Edman. However, you have to love Turner’s all-around game, although if he drew a few more walks and boosted that on-base percentage he’d be an MVP candidate rather than merely a top-10 candidate. It will be interesting to see if he runs more with the new limitations on pickoff throws. Lindor bounced back from a turbulent 2021 with his best season since 2018. He’s not quite the same dynamic player he was earlier in his career, but he still hits for power and remains a solid defender. The breakout candidate here is Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz, he of the breathtaking tools. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him in Seattle, but I’m not sure the offensive consistency will be there just yet and it’s a deep position.
Outfielders: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers; Juan Soto, San Diego Padres; Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
Backups: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves; Kris Bryant; Colorado Rockies; Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
The first two are the easy choices. Betts remains one of the best all-around players in the game, although it’s now clear that his 2018 MVP season (186 OPS+) was an offensive outlier. Still, he hit 35 home runs and led the NL with 117 runs last season. Soto has never hit .300 with 30 home runs in the same season. On the bright side, he posted a .401 OBP in a down year. I expect his numbers to climb back up, although his relatively low launch angle still caps his power output. Harris was third among NL outfielders in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR and did it in just 114 games. He feels like a no-brainer as both his plate discipline and ability to hit left-handers could improve in 2023 and his defense adds value as well.
Acuna’s power was down last year with just 15 home runs in 119 games as he returned from 2021’s ACL surgery. His launch angle was way down, so it’s hard to know if it was a mechanical issue or related to the knee. As for Bryant, who’s entering his age-31 season — hey, it’s been six seasons since a Rocky last won a batting title (Charlie Blackmon in 2017), the longest drought in Rockies history. Sounds like a perfect bounce-back scenario for him. And finally, picture a Kwan-type rookie season from Carroll, except with a little more power and a little more speed. That’s an All-Star-level season.
Kyle Schwarber will certainly factor in and Brandon Nimmo did re-sign with the Mets for $162 million — not bad for a player who has never made an All-Star team. My All-Star sleeper in the outfield: Lars Nootbaar of the Cardinals. Then there’s Fernando Tatis Jr. He’s going to miss the first 20 games of the season, which hurts his All-Star status, then throw in a little rust and uncertainty about his recovery from shoulder surgery (oh, and a PED suspension), and there are enough concerns to leave him off.
Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Backup: Joc Pederson, San Francisco Giants
The NL DH position is even worse off than the AL one, especially with Bryce Harper out the first few months. How many regular DHs will there even be? Martinez and … maybe Jesse Winker for the Brewers? Matt Carpenter for the Padres? Even Pederson is really only a platoon player.
Starting pitchers: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins; Justin Verlander, New York Mets; Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers; Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers; Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies; Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies; Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks; Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates
Alcantara and Verlander are the reigning Cy Young winners, so we’ll stick with them. Sure, Verlander is entering his age-40 season, but at 40, Randy Johnson finished second in Cy Young voting, Nolan Ryan led the league in ERA, John Smoltz went 14-8 with a 3.11 ERA and even Bartolo Colon went 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA.
While I have Verlander making it, I don’t have teammate Max Scherzer. The results were as good as ever (2.23 ERA), but I’m more comfortable banking on Verlander’s health. Burnes wasn’t quite as dominant as his 2021 Cy Young season, but he did pitch 35 more innings, which was a huge plus. Urias is 37-10 with a 2.57 ERA the past two seasons but has yet to make an All-Star Game. Wheeler threw 35 innings in the postseason and Nola threw 25, so that’s a minor concern, but the NL East is so tough that the Phillies can’t really afford to back off on them early in the season. I think both will be fine and have big seasons. Gallen had that incredible streak of 44⅓ scoreless innings and while he might not hold batters to a .186 average again, here’s to believing he did take his game to a new level. Finally, we need a Pirates player: Roansy Contreras, come on down!
Relievers: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets; Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds; Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers; Hunter Harvey, Washington Nationals
The Diaz brothers combined for a 1.58 ERA and 201 strikeouts in 125⅔ innings in 2022 — and it wasn’t all Edwin, as Alexis had a 1.84 ERA as a rookie. Edwin has been inconsistent in his career: He was great in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and not as dominant in 2019 and 2021, but the Mets gave him $100 million to bet on more years of elite ninth-inning work. Alexis doesn’t throw quite as hard as his older brother but has great extension and a similar wipeout slider. Williams was a 2022 All-Star and takes over as the closer from day one with Josh Hader now in San Diego. Hader is coming off a ghastly 5.22 ERA, but he would have been my final selection, except we still need somebody from Washington. The 2023 Nationals might be the most barren roster since those early 2000 Tigers teams. The top returning player in WAR is Victor Robles, who had a .584 OPS. Insert sad emoji.