It’s official: The 2022 NFL season is over, and the offseason is here. And that means we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 NFL draft. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night in Super Bowl LVII to clinch their second championship in four years. Will another team find its Patrick Mahomes in this year’s draft class and soon hoist the Lombardi Trophy? Which franchises will take the next step with savvy moves and smart draft picks to compete with the Chiefs next season? This year’s draft class features plenty of future NFL stars who could make an immediate impact.
With the combine two weeks away and free agency set to open in a month’s time, I’m taking another spin through Round 1 of the draft with predictions for each pick. I have four quarterbacks coming off the board on Day 1, and I even projected a team to trade up to take one at No. 1 overall. Things will certainly change a lot over the next two-plus months, but we are starting to get a better idea of what this class looks like and who could be a first-rounder. Five teams do not have a pick in the first round, including the Miami Dolphins, who were stripped of their selection for tampering violations. That leaves just 31 selections.
Here is my current prediction of how the first round will play out, including a move up the board for a QB-needy franchise.
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Projected trade: Colts secure their QB
Indianapolis has entered each of the past five seasons with a different starting quarterback, opting for veteran options via free agency and trades. But it was No. 27 in Total QBR last season (36.8), and the offense was at the bottom of the NFL in points per game (15.8). GM Chris Ballard will be eager to jump the line to land the top quarterback on the Colts’ board, whomever that ends up being. And the Bears should be listening to offers. They have their quarterback in Justin Fields and can still land a standout defensive player in a trade-back — while also picking up additional draft capital. Matt Miller actually projected the Colts to move up to No. 1 in his mock last week, too. It just makes sense.
The return could come down to just how desperate the QB-needy teams get and how much they fall in love with a specific passer. But I’d expect the Bears to receive something in the ballpark of the No. 4 pick, a second-rounder (No. 35), a fifth-rounder and maybe even an additional Round 1 selection in 2024.
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
New Colts coach Shane Steichen got Justin Herbert up to speed when he was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator during Herbert’s rookie season, and then helped turn Jalen Hurts into one of the league’s top quarterbacks over his two years with the Eagles. Indianapolis has plenty of playmakers already on the roster, but Steichen now needs a signal-caller to build around.
Young’s combine measurements will be important, considering his slender frame (listed at 194 pounds), but he’s my top prospect right now thanks to elite poise in the pocket, good mobility and great field vision. Nothing seems to rattle him, and he can hit all of the NFL-level throws. The Colts must clean up the offensive line to protect him, but Young has a very high ceiling and could help turn the organization around quickly.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Like their AFC South foe in Indianapolis, the Texans have to get their new coach — albeit one with defensive roots in DeMeco Ryans — a quarterback. They were ahead of only the Colts in scoring (16.1 points per game), and Davis Mills doesn’t appear to be the answer. He has nearly as many interceptions as touchdown passes over his two-year career (33-25).
Stroud, meanwhile, finished the 2022 season with an 88.9 QBR and threw 41 touchdown passes to just six picks. His touch, timing and smooth delivery really pop on tape, and we saw flashes of his mobility toward the end of the season. Go watch his outstanding performance against Georgia in the College Football Playoff to see why he’s high on NFL teams’ boards. Houston does have another first-rounder, so perhaps it can add another target for him, too.
Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama
Yet another team that will have a new coach in 2023 after hiring Jonathan Gannon, Arizona has to beef up the pass rush. Enter Anderson, who racked up 27.5 sacks, 130 pressures and 54 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. He overpowers blockers with lower-body strength and an explosive first step, and he’d immediately improve the Cardinals’ ability to get after the QB. Their 36 sacks tied for 23rd last year, and they could lose Zach Allen (free agency) in addition to J.J. Watt (retirement). This one just makes a ton of sense and will be a popular mock draft fit over the next two months.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
So in this scenario, the Bears move down, pick up more picks and still manage to get a player they might draft at No. 1 if they stay home. That’s a pretty solid Thursday night for GM Ryan Poles. Carter’s production might not wow you (six sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss over the past two years), but he dealt with a knee injury this season and was behind numerous first-rounders on Georgia’s 2021 depth chart. Make no mistake: Carter is the real deal. He fires off the ball and uses his excellent strength to push blockers backward.
Last season, Chicago was 32nd in sacks (20) and 27th in run defense (4.9 yards allowed per carry), and coach Matt Eberflus would love to have someone like Carter in the middle of that defensive line to create disruption.
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
I expect Seattle to re-sign or franchise tag Geno Smith, so quarterback shouldn’t be atop its draft-day needs. But Poona Ford is a free agent, and Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor are under contract for only one more season, so the defensive line could be a major focus. The Seahawks finished seventh in sacks (45), but their pass rush win rate (33.5%, 28th) and pressure rate (28.9%, 21st) were lackluster. Wilson wins with power, totaling 14 sacks over the past two seasons in Lubbock.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
I think Detroit sticks with Jared Goff and uses this pick on a porous defensive unit. I considered a cornerback, but Murphy has a much higher grade than my CB1 — and the defense needs support at multiple positions. It couldn’t stop anyone last season, allowing a league-high 6.2 yards per play. Adding Murphy’s speed off the edge to a group that already includes 2022 first-rounder Aidan Hutchinson and surprise rookie standout James Houston immediately moves the defense forward.
Something else to watch for here: I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit slides down the board, picking up additional draft capital from a team looking to nab a quarterback. The Lions already have a second first-rounder, too.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Derek Carr era is over, and Tom Brady is no longer an option after he retired this month. Las Vegas will explore other available veterans, but Levis would fit in nicely. He has a huge arm to drive the ball downfield to Davante Adams, and at 232 pounds, he is a strong runner on designed rushes and scrambles. Levis has experience with pro-style concepts, too, and his ceiling is sky high. But can coach Josh McDaniels clean up Levis’ turnovers (23 interceptions over the past two years) and maximize his traits? That will be the biggest question for the team that ultimately picks Levis. If the Raiders can iron out those issues, they might have a long-term solve to help them compete in the AFC West with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
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Will Levis airs it out for 70-yard touchdown
Kentucky QB Will Levis airs it out 70 yards for a touchdown to Barion Brown.
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Atlanta has Kaleb McGary and Chuma Edoga headed to free agency, meaning the offensive tackle depth chart is barren. And for a team that relies so heavily on the run, the line has to be a focus. Questions about Skoronski’s length should get answers at the combine in a few weeks, but man, this guy’s quickness, balance and awareness are outstanding. He takes great angles as a run-blocker, which should open things up for Tyler Allgeier and whoever else is taking handoffs next season.
Quarterback is worth a look, too, but with Desmond Ridder in the fold, I’m not sure the Falcons take the plunge on Florida’s Anthony Richardson here with the top three signal-callers off the board. If Atlanta doesn’t stick with Ridder, it probably wouldn’t turn to another developmental QB like Richardson.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
According to Elias Sports Bureau research, we have never seen three or more teams hire a new coach and draft a new quarterback in the top 10 in the same offseason (since the 1970 merger). If things play out like this, Frank Reich and the Panthers could make a little history as the third such franchise in 2023. Carolina was brutal under center last season, though Sam Darnold flashed a bit down the stretch. The Panthers might opt to bring him back, but they likely wouldn’t — and shouldn’t — stop there.
Richardson will not be ready to start right away after just 13 college starts and with some rawness to his game, but his potential is off the charts. He has the arm. He has the rushing ability. And he has the 6-foot-4, 232-pound frame. Scouts are fascinated by his upside. It’d just come down to whether the Panthers believe they can fix his accuracy woes and develop his game to capitalize on those physical traits. Maybe they fall in love with another QB and try to move up, but if not, don’t be surprised if they’re the ones to reach for Richardson (my No. 36 prospect).
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
The loaded Eagles went to the Super Bowl for good reason, and GM Howie Roseman’s focus on building out from the trenches proved valuable. But now, they could lose three of their top four defensive linemen in terms of snap counts to free agency, including Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox up the middle. Roseman drafted Jordan Davis in Round 1 last April, and bringing in Bresee to pair with him could shore up an important unit for the team. Bresee has fantastic upper-body strength to slow down opponent run games and work through blockers as an interior pass-rusher.
Philly might have had 14 wins, but it will have a lot of offseason concerns to address, mainly on defense. Joining Hargrave and Cox with expiring contracts are James Bradberry, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham, Robert Quinn, Kyzir White, T.J. Edwards, Marcus Epps and Isaac Seumalo, so there are a lot of directions to go here. I also still like the idea of Texas’ Bijan Robinson in Philadelphia, with Miles Sanders headed to free agency, but it’s really, really early for a running back, and the defense is going to have all those holes to plug. Remember, the Eagles also have a second first-rounder.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Johnson is such an easy mover and allowed only three sacks over 26 starts since the start of 2021. He’s versatile, too, moving over from right guard to left tackle this season and not missing a beat. The Titans’ 49 sacks allowed tied for fifth most in 2022, and Taylor Lewan (turning 32 years old) is entering the final year of his contract while coming off a right knee injury. Johnson would help keep Ryan Tannehill — or whoever ends up being the quarterback over the next few seasons — upright while also opening up lanes for Derrick Henry and the run game. And Johnson could perhaps eventually line up opposite Nicholas Petit-Frere, his former teammate at Ohio State whom he replaced at left tackle this past season.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
If you draft a quarterback at No. 2 (Stroud), it’s smart to set him up to succeed with a strong supporting cast. The run game got a bump from Dameon Pierce this year, the offensive line is solid and John Metchie III should return (recovering from leukemia) to join Brandin Cooks in the receiving corps, but we’re talking about the league’s worst offense last season (4.8 yards per play). Stroud would need a big-body receiver to go up and get 50-50 balls, stretch the field and produce after the catch. That’s Johnston.
If the Texans go this route, they’d be the first team since 2010 to draft a QB and a new receiver for him in the same first round (Denver), per ESPN Stats & Information research.
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Jets’ 2022 rookie class produced both the offensive (Garrett Wilson) and defensive (Sauce Gardner) Rookie of the Year. Can GM Joe Douglas hit on a first-rounder again, this time outside the top 10?
The Jets were middle of the pack in sacks allowed (42, 19th) and pass block win rate (57.1%, 21st) last season. But consider that George Fant is hitting free agency, Duane Brown will be 38 years old, Alijah Vera-Tucker is more of a guard and returning from a triceps injury and Mekhi Becton has played one game since his 2020 rookie year. If New York does find a way to bring in Aaron Rodgers or another veteran QB, it will need to protect him. Jones didn’t allow a single sack over 15 starts last year, showcasing the ability to stall both speed and power off the edge.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
With Jonathan Jones now a free agent, cornerback seems like a very possible Day 1 target for the Pats — especially if none have come off the board by the time they pick. Porter had only one career interception at Penn State (in 2021), but he broke up 11 passes last season. He has length and plays a physical brand of football, rerouting receivers off the line of scrimmage and outmuscling them on 50-50 balls despite weighing just 198 pounds.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
We project a pass-catcher to the Packers in Round 1 year in and year out, and every time the first round rolls around, they go another direction. In fact, Green Bay hasn’t drafted a pass-catcher on Day 1 since it took Javon Walker in 2002. But after missing the playoffs and potentially losing Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan to free agency, the Packers’ hand might be forced in 2023 — no matter who is under center. Mayer has a huge catch radius and is a bulldozer after the catch, hauling in 67 balls for 809 yards and nine scores last season. He might be the safest prospect in the entire class thanks to an all-around skill set, and he’d be an instant-impact player for Green Bay.
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
A terrific cover corner, Witherspoon allowed just 3.3 yards per attempt thrown his direction this season, second best in the nation, and he picked off three passes. Washington’s pass defense improved a bit in 2022, but it still needs a dominant playmaker on the outside opposite Kendall Fuller. And Witherspoon’s ball skills would help create some takeaways after the Commanders finished 28th with nine interceptions.
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
If the Steelers can’t retain Cameron Sutton, then Gonzalez makes a lot of sense as a replacement. He has 6-foot-2 size, good length, some serious wheels and high-end ball skills, as evidenced by four interceptions in 2022. And if Pittsburgh does re-sign Sutton or add another cornerback via free agency, Gonzalez has versatility to move around the secondary and line up over the slot.
Alternatively, the Steelers could look at offensive line reinforcements, though the top three offensive tackles are off the board in this scenario.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
We mentioned that the Lions might be thinking cornerback at No. 6 (ended up with a defensive end in Murphy), but they get one here with their second first-rounder at the tail end of a mini run at the position. Ringo is the fourth CB to come off the board in five picks. There will be a lot of opinions about his game, but Ringo has a lot of upside. He has speed and length, and he’s very good in press coverage. Plus, he hauled in two interceptions in each of his seasons at Georgia. Jeff Okudah has flashed the traits that made him the No. 3 pick in 2020, but even if he takes the next step, Amani Oruwariye is a free agent, leaving the other outside corner spot wide open.
Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Without Tom Brady, it might be a different kind of season for the Buccaneers. Could they move up for a quarterback? It’s possible, though the free agent market offers a lot of options, and Kyle Trask is on the roster already. This could be a rebuilding year.
Shaquil Barrett should be returning from a torn Achilles, but the edge rush group could otherwise see a lot of turnover in free agency. Van Ness, meanwhile, never started a game at Iowa but managed back-to-back seasons with seven sacks. His length, quickness and power would be welcomed in Tampa Bay, where pressuring the QB is a big part of the team’s defensive identity.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
I have the Seahawks sticking with defense after drafting Wilson at No. 5, now addressing the secondary. Yes, Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are both under contract for a few more years, but Branch is versatile enough to play all over, often lining up in the box or over the slot as a nickelback. Plus, Adams hasn’t played a full season since 2018 and is returning from a season-ending quadriceps injury suffered in the 2022 opener.
With great instincts and a complete toolbox, Branch did it all last season: 89 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, three sacks, two interceptions, seven pass breakups and nine run stops.
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
It’d be great to get the Chargers a defensive tackle to plug up a horrid run defense that allowed a league-high 5.4 yards per carry in 2022, but the value just isn’t there. The next DTs on my board are Baylor’s Siaki Ika, Michigan’s Mazi Smith and Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton, all of whom look like early Day 2 prospects. My best available defensive player is Smith, and with Bryce Callahan now a free agent and J.C. Jackson struggling before a late-October right knee injury, shoring up the cornerback room makes sense. Smith relies on high-end instincts and good length to break early on balls and come away with interceptions (six over the past three years).
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
This might raise some eyebrows, especially with a handful of Day 1 receivers still on the board, but GM Eric DeCosta could add another outside target to pair with Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay via free agency and/or on Day 2. Robinson is my No. 9 prospect, pushed down the board by positional value, and the Ravens lean on the run like few other teams. We’ve now watched them look to free agents and practice-squaders at running back in back-to-back years, as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards (both entering the final years of their deals) navigated various injuries. With Robinson available, coach John Harbaugh could make a splash.
Robinson reminds me of Saquon Barkley. He forces missed tackles with ease (FBS-leading 91 in 2022), has burst through rushing lanes and can make plays in the pass game. If Lamar Jackson does indeed end up back in Baltimore, this would form a scary rushing unit for new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Adam Thielen is entering his age-33 season, so Minnesota could take the best player available here and get a speedy, instinctive running mate for Justin Jefferson. Addison was just shy of 1,600 receiving yards in 2021 at Pitt before transferring to USC and picking up another 875 yards and eight scores. He has versatility to line up outside or in the slot.
For those wondering why the Vikings would sidestep their defensive needs — they allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2022, third highest in the NFL — it really comes down to the board. Texas A&M safety Antonio Johnson or Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders might fit, but this is still early for both. Remember, free agency still lies ahead …
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Jaguars’ pass game took a huge step forward in Trevor Lawrence‘s second season. The Christian Kirk signing paid off, and Calvin Ridley — acquired at the deadline — should be a factor next season once he returns from suspension. But Lawrence probably still needs another pass-catcher, especially because tight end Evan Engram is a free agent and we can’t be sure what Ridley will bring after missing more than a year.
Smith-Njigba is a tough evaluation. He caught 15 passes for 347 yards and three TDs in the 2021 season’s Rose Bowl, capping off a 1,606-yard campaign. But he had two catches in that game that were longer than his total yardage for the entire 2022 season (43), as a nagging hamstring injury limited him to five catches over three contests. JSN displays soft hands, precise route running and good after-the-catch ability, and he could be a steal for Jacksonville if he falls here.
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Smith-Njibga’s amazing over-the-shoulder TD catch gives OSU lead
C.J. Stroud throws a perfect ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the touchdown late in the fourth, giving the Buckeyes their first lead of the game.
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
We saw a run on corners in the middle of the first round, and now we get another on receivers. The Giants’ wideout issues are well documented, as they relied on Darius Slayton, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins to carry the load last season. Wan’Dale Robinson will be returning from a torn ACL, but Slayton and James will join Sterling Shepard (also had a torn ACL) in free agency. It looks like Daniel Jones will be back in New York, but will GM Joe Schoen improve the supporting cast?
I really like Flowers’ skill set. He’s elusive in the open field and has the speed to separate from coverage. Last season, he caught 78 balls for 1,077 yards and 12 TDs while forcing a bunch of missed tackles.
O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Torrence has allowed just two sacks over 47 career starts and more than 1,400 pass-block snaps. With Connor McGovern‘s contract expiring, there is a hole on Dallas’ offensive line, and Torrence is a brick wall against power rushers. He looked great at the Senior Bowl two weeks ago, too.
The Cowboys’ pick might come down to how the board plays out, though. They might be enticed by Bijan Robinson if he’s available, given Tony Pollard is a free agent and Ezekiel Elliott could be a cap casualty. And the WR2 spot behind CeeDee Lamb needs consideration, because Michael Gallup didn’t make much of an impact last season. Depth at cornerback and edge rush shouldn’t be ignored, either. I’m intrigued by how Dallas approaches these next few months and how the board sets up for this pick in April.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
The Bills might have vacancies on the defensive side of the ball, depending on how free agency plays out for linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jordan Poyer. But with Devin Singletary also on an expiring deal, Buffalo might look to jumpstart its run game with Gibbs, who rushed 151 times for 926 yards and caught 44 passes for another 444 last season. Bills running backs totaled 1,418 yards on the ground last season, 24th best in the NFL, and only four teams had fewer rushing TDs from that position group (seven).
Gibbs’ vision and shiftiness are outstanding, as he can string together multiple cuts to find daylight. The Bills could team him up with James Cook and Nyheim Hines to form a solid backfield and complement what quarterback Josh Allen does when he tucks and runs.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
I wouldn’t count out an offensive lineman here, but think about how a standout tight end could elevate this offense to another level. Joe Burrow threw only 92 passes to tight ends in 2022, sixth fewest in the league, and now Hayden Hurst is off to free agency. Cincinnati could really use a top-tier pass-catcher there to open things up more on the outside for the Bengals’ trio of wideouts, provide a security blanket for Burrow over the middle and stretch the seam for chunk plays. With a big 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame, Kincaid is coming off two straight seasons with 500-plus yards and eight TDs.
Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech
The Saints got back into Round 1 with the Sean Payton trade and have a chance to land a replacement for Marcus Davenport if the veteran pass-rusher departs in free agency — which seems likely given the Saints’ salary-cap situation. White is coming off a 7.5-sack season and just had a good week in Mobile, Alabama, at the Senior Bowl. The pass rush was a strength in New Orleans last season (48 sacks, tied for fifth), but Cameron Jordan is turning 34, and defensive tackle David Onyemata is scheduled to join Davenport in free agency.
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
It has been a while since the Eagles were first on the clock at No. 10, when they took a defensive tackle (Bryan Bresee). Now Philadelphia pivots to the other side of the ball but stays in the trenches. The Eagles have Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata under contract for three more years, but Harrison could provide depth and perhaps help out on the interior, where the team might lose a couple starters this offseason. He walls off defenders and has allowed just two sacks over three seasons. And perhaps more importantly for Philly’s offense, he has blown just seven run blocks over that time.
Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
We watched the dominant Philadelphia pass rush go sack free against the Chiefs on Sunday night, which was huge for Kansas City given Patrick Mahomes‘ ankle injury. That’s a testament to the Chiefs’ OL, which finished the season with just 26 sacks allowed (third) and the league’s top pass block win rate (74.7%). But neither starting offensive tackle — Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie — is under contract next season, so Kansas City will have to figure out how to replenish the line. Duncan still has some developing to do, and he struggled against top-tier teams in 2022, allowing six sacks to Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State. But he moves well for a 6-foot-6 prospect and has good anchoring strength.