Just as has been the trend in the on-field game the past three seasons, it’s becoming increasingly mandatory to squeeze every last bit of value you can out of each of your active pitchers in fantasy baseball.
The game’s continuing specialization of the pitching landscape has forced this approach, with high-volume aces decreasing in number, pitch counts becoming more of the rage and teams turning to high-leverage bullpen arms earlier in the game than ever. Fantasy managers need to keep their pitching staffs on notice for frequent turnover, and that means the need to mine as much value as we can with our draft picks.
That’s where this column comes in. Among the best ways to find hidden value on the pitching side is to identify pitchers with elite skill sets, whose surface statistics — think old-school measures like wins and ERA — belied their true talent in the most recent season. They are my “Kings of Command,” pitchers who met a very specific set of minimum statistical baselines demonstrating excellence in these skills.
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the major league averages listed below in all of the following categories during the 2022 season. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 200 batters, and relief pitchers must have faced at least 100 batters, while serving in those specific roles.
Starting pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 11.8% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 61.9% or more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.89 or more
Relief pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.9% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 60.7% of more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.58 or more
Put-away rate (K’s per 2-strike count): 20.2% or more
Using those thresholds, 96 pitchers (36 starters and 60 relievers) met all of those criteria in either role. Among them were both Cy Young Award winners, Sandy Alcantara and Justin Verlander, both Relievers of the Year (Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera Awards), Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz, and 13 of the 21 highest-ranked pitchers on the Player Rater.
The nine pitchers selected below, however, also qualified, despite none of them receiving nearly the same hoopla. Each could wind up as a bargain in fantasy drafts this season, considering their comparably strong skill sets but lackluster 2022 surface statistics. All it might take is one small tweak, better luck or an expanded role for any of them to provide a huge return on your investment.
My “Kings of Command” are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2022 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN’s standard scoring.
2022 Player Rater: SP40/121st overall
2022 fantasy point total: 392 (SP34)
Why he’s on here: After breaking through in a big way in 2021, finishing as the No. 6 starting pitcher and No. 9 player overall in points leagues, ninth and 22nd on the Player Rater and earning both his first All-Star appearance and Cy Young votes, Gausman took what was perceived to be a big step backward. The reality, however, is that he was comparably excellent, posting the majors’ third-best swinging-strike (16.4%) and fifth-best walk rates (3.9%) among those with a minimum of 100 innings pitched, and his 3.34 Statcast expected ERA represented a career best. Gausman was strikingly unlucky on balls in play, as his batting average allowed (.272) was 30 points higher than his expected batting average allowed (.242), the widest among ERA qualifiers.
How he could improve: Better luck on batted balls, obviously, which could tie to how Rogers Centre plays with its new outfield dimensions and wall heights. Gausman had a 4.57 ERA at home, compared to 2.30 on the road, and his best course to narrow that gap is to also close his home/road gap in batted ball metrics (43.7% hard-hit rate and 89.5 mph average exit velocity at home, 33.6% and 87.7 on the road).
2022 Player Rater: SP69/245th overall
2022 fantasy point total: 260 (SP69)
Why he’s on here: Gray’s first year away from Coors Field’s hitters’-heaven environment went generally well, as he scored an elite 25-plus fantasy points in four of 24 turns, while posting personal bests with his 1.14 WHIP and 3.59 Statcast expected ERA. All of Gray’s skills-based metrics fell very much in line with his best years in Colorado, as his 95.9 mph average fastball velocity was competitive with his 2017 and 2019 numbers (96.0), his 41% whiff rate with his slider was his best with the pitch since 2018 and his 12.7% swinging-strike rate overall was his third best in any season.
How he could improve: Better health, most notably, as Gray made three trips to the injured list last season, missing one April start because of a blister, two starts in late April/early May because of a knee sprain and nearly six weeks in August/September while nursing an oblique strain. Altogether, he has made seven trips to the IL in the past four seasons alone, a track record that on its own is enough to keep him outside the positional top 40.
2022 Player Rater: SP82/324th overall
2022 fantasy point total: 225 (SP82)
Why he’s on here: The No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft and a top-25 prospect entering last season, Greene showed us why he was worthy of either status with one of the more beneath-the-radar great campaigns by any 2022 rookie. He was one of only three pitchers to record 80-plus strikeouts with two different pitches — joining Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon, who like Greene did so with their four-seam fastballs and sliders — scored 25-plus fantasy points in four of 24 starts and finished seventh among pitchers who logged at least 100 innings with his 30.9% strikeout rate, eighth in whiff rate (32.0%) and 10th in swinging-strike rate (15.6%). Greene’s stuff is absolutely filthy, his fastball averaging 98.9 mph and his slider generating a 38.0% whiff rate.
How he could improve: Greene’s changeup, which he located increasingly more effectively as the season progressed, remains a work in progress. Its development might have a huge bearing on his 2023 prospects, however, not only because of how it might balance his pitch selection, but also how it could provide added effectiveness to his blazing fastball (below-average, minus-5 run value per Statcast) as well as elevate his ground ball rate to closer to his minor league levels. We’ve seen what Greene can do with premium command, most notably his 7⅓ no-hit innings on May 15, or his 11-strikeout, no-walk masterpiece on Sept. 17.
2022 Player Rater: RP64/296th overall
2022 fantasy point total: 173 (RP64)
Why he’s on here: Following the Cubs’ Aug. 2 trade of then-closer David Robertson, the team’s closer-by-committee approach in his absence probably has most fantasy managers forgetting most of the team’s individual performances. Hughes’ breakthrough was one of those that was overlooked, as he posted a 2.50 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 27.5% strikeout rate in 42 appearances from July 1 forward. From Sept. 1 on, he went 5-for-5 in converting save chances and added five holds, putting himself firmly in the team’s closer competition heading into spring training.
How he could improve: Hughes has an extreme fly ball tendency (32.6% last season), which is a worry for a short reliever who paired it with an 8.8% walk rate. He had better control in the minors — 5.2% between Double-A and Triple-A last season, albeit in a small, 10-game sample — which would help if he could match it in the majors.
2022 Player Rater: SP87/341st overall
2022 fantasy point total: 213 (SP93)
Why he’s on here: Lodolo joined Greene in the Reds’ Opening Day rotation last season, and while Lodolo’s season got off to the rockier start, including missing 10 weeks with a lower back strain, he’s the one who made the bigger, louder final impression. From the All-Star break forward, Lodolo went 8-for-13 in quality starts with a 2.92 ERA and 30.0% strikeout rate, the latter two ranking 19th and ninth among qualified pitchers during that time. Lodolo’s curveball was especially strong during his rookie season, responsible for 65 of his 131 strikeouts while he sported the sixth-best whiff rate (45.4%) among pitchers who threw at least 200 curveballs.
How he could improve: Lodolo’s control is still a work in progress, as his 8.7% second-half walk rate ranked 58th among 66 qualifiers, and his 19 hit batsmen was the major leagues’ most. He’ll need to rein those in, at least bringing them closer his 6.0% rate as a junior at TCU in 2019 or his 5.2% in 10 Double-A starts in 2021. Lodolo could also stand to polish his changeup, which would be a big step toward lowering his .344 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters.
2022 Player Rater: SP64/235th overall
2022 fantasy point total: 228 (SP80)
Why he’s on here: Even a forearm strain that cost Luzardo nearly three months didn’t prevent him from being consistently successful throughout his first year in Miami, and he finished on such a high note that a significant step forward might be in store for 2023. He had a 12-strikeout game in his first start of the season, and 11- and 12-strikeout performances in two of his final three turns. In his final two starts, against 101-win Atlanta Braves and New York Mets teams, he turned in quality starts both times, limited hitters to two runs and a .182 batting average and struck out 18 of 47 hitters he faced (38.3%). Luzardo restored some velocity to his fastball, averaging 96.3 mph, and both his curveball and slider had better-than-40% whiff rates.
How he could improve: As with Gray, health is Luzardo’s final obstacle in his path to greatness, as he has spent at least four weeks on the injured list in three of his past four seasons and hasn’t exceeded 124⅓ innings combined between the majors and minors in any of his seven professional campaigns.
2022 Player Rater: RP39/221st overall
2022 fantasy point total: 202 (SP45)
Why he’s on here: Put aside the lackluster Division Series showing (3 appearances, 3 earned runs allowed), because Munoz was one of the filthiest relievers in all of baseball for the entire 2022 season. Among pitchers who threw at least 750 pitches in 2022, his 22.9% swinging-strike rate placed second behind only Edwin Diaz’s 26.0%, and his 96 total strikeouts were tied with Devin Williams for second-most among relievers behind Diaz’s 118. During Munoz’s final 42 regular-season appearances, his ERA was 1.21 and he struck out 71 of 162 hitters he faced (43.8%), making him one of the most dominating relievers during that span. Unfortunately, his 26 saves plus holds ranked 27th, limited by manager Scott Servais’ reliance on a committee to close games. That was a large part of the reason for his modest fantasy numbers.
How he could improve: Health will probably be the first thing that comes to mind for many, considering Munoz pitched only 4⅓ total innings from 2020-21, but that was primarily because of his slow recovery from Tommy John surgery. More importantly, Munoz could earn more ninth-inning looks from Servais if he can extend his second-half showing into 2023. Given even 25-30 save chances, Munoz would have an excellent chance at a top-five positional stat line.
2022 Player Rater: RP69/306th overall
2022 fantasy point total: 178 (SP59)
Why he’s on here: Puk put the injury issues of 2018 to ’21 behind him last season, settling in as an effective late-inning option for an Athletics team thin on experienced relievers. He added both extension and velocity to his four-seam fastball, using his 6-foot-7 frame to give the pitch averaging 96.7 mph added effectiveness, and his slider had a 37.0% whiff rate to serve an effective put-away pitch. By July, he had forced his way into the team’s closer conversation, a role he’d likely have competed for during spring training if the Athletics hadn’t abruptly traded him to the Marlins in early February. Puk has the skills to succeed as either a starter or reliever, but it seems that a late-inning role is more in store for him with his new team.
How he could improve: As with Munoz, Puk might best benefit from his team trusting him with its ninth-inning chores. From a skills perspective, however, Puk was a bit more ground ball-oriented throughout his minor league career than he showed last season (45.0%). He was typically closer to 50% in the category in the minors, a rate that would be more palatable for a pitcher who has an 8.8% career walk rate as a pro.
2022 Player Rater: SP41/123rd overall
2022 fantasy point total: 339 (SP46)
Why he’s on here: A popular 2022 preseason fantasy breakout pick and ultimately the Twins’ Opening Day starter, Ryan fell short of his lofty expectations, going only 11-for-27 in quality starts and delivering a so-so 3.55 ERA. Much of the cause was the regression of his slider, leaving him as a fastball-reliant pitcher, though at least that pitch was one of the league’s most effective (Statcast graded it with a minus-21 run value). Ryan was shelled for 10 runs in his final start of July, but he rebounded nicely in the two months that followed (3.23 ERA and 28.2% strikeout rate during that span). It was a signal that he might be moving beyond his adjustment period and ready for a true breakthrough heading into 2023.
How he could improve: Ryan is an extreme fly baller, his 32.8% fly ball rate last season ranking seventh highest among the 140 pitchers who worked at least 100 innings, so he’s always going to be at risk for home runs and occasionally ugly innings. Getting his walk rate back down to the 5.0% he posted in 2021 would go a long way toward minimizing those damaging frames.