Last month, we took a look at persistent organizational holes — those sore spots on different teams that just never quite seem to heal.
This is a companion examination to that exercise, in which we look at the flip side: What are the strongest positions for each team on a year-in, year-out basis?
To answer that question, we tabulated “stability scores” for every position on every club (our methodology is explained here). For some teams, the answer is obvious. (See: Mr. Trout and the Angels.) For others, the biggest source of stability might not be what you think.
In addition, we’re putting these scores in a historical context by looking at how the tenure of the current regular at each team’s most stable position compares to the longest tenure at that spot in franchise history.
Finally, we’ll look how and if the picture changed in 2022 — and how it might evolve in the season to come.
Position: Relief pitchers
Stability points: 105.1 (last red in 1993)
Current tenure: 1 season (Clay Holmes, 2022 to present)
Longest tenure: 17 seasons (Mariano Rivera, 1997 to 2013)
Last season: Whether it’s scouting, development or financial heft, the Yankees have rarely gone through true down cycles on the pitching side, with their bullpens edging out their rotations (87 stability points) for not just team-high honors but the highest score on the chart. There have been seasons where the Yankees’ relievers have been a tick below average but in terms of bullpen bWAR, they haven’t bottomed out since 1993, the year their amazing active streak of 30 straight winning seasons began.
Last season was more of the same, even though there was a changeover at the back of the bullpen, where Holmes took over from Aroldis Chapman as the most-used closer. Overall the bullpen was leaned on heavily: No team had a higher average leverage index from its relievers than the Yankees. They finished sixth in reliever bWAR and, according to Fangraphs, fifth in reliever win probability added. The beat goes on.
Looking ahead: Chapman is gone and the Yankees are hoping Holmes’ late-season fade was an aberration. But even if there is more flux at the back of the bullpen, the Yankees have more than enough talent on hand to keep it safely in the green.
Position: Center field
Stability points: 72.11 (last red in 2007)
Current tenure: 11 seasons (Mike Trout, 2012 to present)
Longest tenure: 11 seasons (Trout)
Last season: If I pitched this concept to you without mentioning methodology, or any specific example of what I was trying to get at, what would come to mind when I uttered the words “positional stability”? For many or even most, it seems like Angels/center field would be the partnership that springs to mind. It’s not just that Mike Trout has been the center fielder for the Halos for 11 seasons now. It’s also that for most of that time, we’ve thought of him as an all-time great. Trout-plus-Angels is the way baseball fans would have thought about Joe DiMaggio and the Yankees in, say, 1947, or Ted Williams and the Red Sox in around 1950 or Hank Aaron and the Braves in the mid-1960s. The visual of Trout patrolling center field for the Angels is perhaps the iconic image of this era.
Looking ahead: The only thing that can derail this train is injury, because Trout’s per-rata performance has not slipped at all over the years. In 2021, Trout played fewer games in center for the Angels than either Brandon Marsh or Juan Lagares because of injury. That didn’t end his tenure, since he went right back to leading the club in center field appearances in 2022, but putting together full seasons has become increasingly difficult for Trout. So not only do the injuries open the door for repeats of 2021, but they could suggest a future position change to save on his wear and tear. That change isn’t likely to happen this season.
Position: Left field
Stability points: 64.2 (last red in 2002)
Current tenure: 2 seasons (Randy Arozarena, 2021 to present)
Longest tenure: 9 seasons (Carl Crawford, 2002 to 2010)
Last season: The Rays are remarkable in many ways but this system reveals another. Despite the constant turnover on the Tampa Bay roster that stems from the way they shuttle talent in and out all while winning, the Rays have double-digit stability points everywhere but catcher and starting pitching. Left field wins the recognition here even though the present tenured player, Arozarena, has held the job for just two seasons. In fact, this long string of green seasons has featured nine different regulars at the spot since Crawford surrendered the position after a long run that ended in 2010.
Looking ahead: This run, and Arozarena’s tenure, are overwhelmingly likely to continue through the coming season. He also has three more seasons of team control remaining so we could still be in the early stages of a long run for Arozarena at the position. But of course these are the Rays, and no player’s present value is safe if they are presented with a chance to spin that into future value in a way that doesn’t ruin the present. Or, to put that in less actuarial terms, it’s possible the Rays might look to trade Arozarena before he gets too expensive.
Position: Starting pitchers
Stability points: 57.15 (last red in 2005)
Current tenure: 15 seasons (Clayton Kershaw, 2008 to present)
Longest tenure: 15 seasons (Sandy Koufax & Don Sutton, 1966 to 1980)
Last season: During the divisional era (since 1969), Dodgers rotations have finished in the red just five times, the last two coming in 2004 or 2005, which you might think of as “pre-Kershaw.” Since Kershaw broke into the majors, the Dodgers have ranked 11th or better in starter bWAR every season. They’ve been in the top eight in each of the past six seasons, and in the top five the past three seasons. In 2022, the Dodgers led the majors in starter bWAR even though they had just two pitchers (Tyler Anderson and Julio Urias) make more than 24 starts.
Looking ahead: To gain a season of tenure in this methodology, a starter has to finish in the top five on his team in terms of appearances. Kershaw has managed to keep doing that even as his overall workloads have decreased over the years. One more season of that, and he will break the tie with Sutton to become the longest-tenured starting pitcher in Dodgers history. And when you’re on a team with as rich a pitching tradition as the Dodgers, that’s saying something.
Position: Left field
Stability points: 53.3 (last red in 2005)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (Christian Yelich, 2020 to present)
Longest tenure: 7 seasons (Greg Vaughn, 1990 to 1996 & Geoff Jenkins, 1998 to 2004)
Last season: The corner outfield spots are tough in terms of tenure, as teams aren’t shy about flipping outfielders between the positions. The Brewers are a good example of this. Yelich has a three-season run going as Milwaukee’s left fielder, but before that, he was the regular right fielder for two years. Jenkins and Vaughn are tied for the longest left-field tenures here, but Jenkins was the regular in right for two seasons after his run in left. And Ryan Braun would have had a 12-year run in left but in the middle of that stretch, he spent two seasons in right. Through it all, the Brewers have managed to usually have capable left fielders dating all the way back to the days of Ben Oglivie.
Looking ahead: Yelich has a long way to go on his contract. After three straight seasons that are about two tiers below his remarkable MVP-level runs in 2018 and 2019, we kind of have to accept that this is just now who Yelich is. But even so, he’s solidly in the two-to-three win category, which should keep the Brewers in the green at this spot for some time to come. And even if Yelich moves off the position, the Brewers’ most interesting prospects are outfielders, so they should be in good shape for many years.
Position: Left field
Stability points: 51.3 (last red in 2004)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (Tyler O’Neill, 2020 to present)
Longest tenure: 16 seasons (Lou Brock, 1964 to 1979)
Last season: O’Neill has carried on a long stretch of average or better play in left field for St. Louis that really turned into an organizational strength with the acquisition of Matt Holliday in 2010. Of course, last season was a struggle at the plate for O’Neill, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2021. He still managed to stay safely above replacement level. He also helped out in center field, so he required some help to keep the Cardinals green in left. He got it, too, with Juan Yepez (.867), Brendan Donovan (.744) and Corey Dickerson (.732) all posting OPSes in left field better than that of O’Neill (.717), who, nevertheless, still logged the most time at the position.
Looking ahead: For now, it’s O’Neill’s spot to lose and so he has a chance to extend his tenure for another campaign, though he has a long, long way to go to catch Brock. Still, the Cardinals are deep in outfielders and might be looking for a way to get high-potential prospect Jordan Walker on the field. So O’Neill will have to perform to keep his job and, perhaps, avoid becoming a subject of trade rumors. Either way, the Cardinals should stay green, either because O’Neill bounces back or someone else performs so well they knock him from atop the depth chart.
Position: First base
Stability points: 51.1 (last red in 2005)
Current tenure: 1 season (Matt Olson, 2022 to present)
Longest tenure: 11 seasons (Fred Tenney, 1897-1907 & Freddie Freeman, 2011 to 2021)
Last season: It has been a long time since the Braves have had to worry about first base. Given the length and excellence of Freeman’s time in Atlanta, the Braves could count on a top six or so ranking at the position for nearly a decade. The passing of the position to Olson worked as seamlessly as any Braves fan could have hoped, as Atlanta ranked sixth in bWAR at first base in 2022, led by Olson’s 3.3 mark.
Looking ahead: Olson’s numbers last season were representative for his career and of an average Freeman season, but his percentages were a tick below his career average across the board. He’s only 29 so that’s likely good news for Atlanta, as Olson remains more than capable of putting up a five-win season in any given campaign. He’s under contract for eight more seasons, so the Braves aren’t likely going to have to worry about first base any time soon.
Position: Shortstop
Stability points: 43.2 (last red in 2006)
Current tenure: 2 seasons (Amed Rosario, 2021 to present)
Longest tenure: 11 seasons (Omar Vizquel, 1994 to 2004)
Last season: When you think of the successful Cleveland teams of the past three decades or so, shortstop might not be the position that leaps to mind. But from Omar Vizuel to Jhonny Peralta to Asdrubal Cabrera to Francisco Lindor, they’ve always been able to find better than stopgap solutions for this crucial position. Two seasons into Amed Rosario’s time at the position, that long record of success continues.
Looking ahead: Rosario is coming off a terrific season (4.2 bWAR) and is in the midst of his prime. Thus shortstop should remain a strength for the Guardians in 2023. However, Rosario hits free agency after the season and because the Guardians have several internally developed/developing candidates to replace him (Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, among others), this might be it for him. It’s also possible he emerges as a trade candidate.
Position: Shortstop
Stability points: 37.1 (last red in 2013)
Current tenure: 1 season (Jeremy Pena, 2022 to present)
Longest tenure: 7 seasons (Roger Metzger, 1971 to 1977 & Carlos Correa, 2015 to 2021)
Last season: This is pretty much the ideal for any organization. You draft and develop a star player at a spot, and when he moves on, whether it’s your choice or not, you plug in another star-level player to take his place. Things could hardly have gone better for Pena in his first season after taking over for Correa. He posted a 101 OPS+ and won a Gold Glove while ending up with a 4.8 bWAR. It wasn’t quite a peak Correa-type season, but more of a median Correa-type season. When you consider Pena followed that by winning MVP honors in both the ALCS and World Series, it’s safe to say that was a pretty good starting point for the Astros’ new shortstop.
Looking ahead: There’s no reason to think Pena will do anything but get better from here. But he does need to keep getting better. As a rookie, he struck out six times for every time he walked and posted just a .289 on-base percentage. That aggressive approach led to peaks but also some long valleys. Still, chances are the Astros are set at shortstop for at least the next four or five years.
Position: Third base
Stability points: 34.2 (last red in 2012)
Current tenure: 2 seasons (Ryan McMahon, 2021 to present)
Longest tenure: 8 seasons (Nolan Arenado, 2013 to 2020)
Last season: Third base has generally been a strong point for the Rockies during their existence, even before Arenado took over. Even during their inaugural season in 1993, the Rox got 3.3 bWAR from Charlie Hayes. After that came Vinny Castilla, Jeff Cirillo, Garrett Atkins and finally Arenado, with a few stopgaps sprinkled in here and there. The past couple of seasons, the position has most commonly been in the capable hands of McMahon, who has hit well enough while posting Arenado-like defensive metrics over the past two seasons.
Looking ahead: McMahon will once again man the hot corner in Colorado. This will mark the second season of the six-year extension he signed last spring. If he lasts as the Rockies’ regular third baseman for the duration of the deal, he’ll be continuing one of Colorado’s more admirable traditions.
Position: Catcher
Stability points: 31.11 (last red in 2010)
Current tenure: 11 seasons (Salvador Perez, 2012 to present)
Longest tenure: 11 seasons (Perez)
Last season: For the first time since Perez entered the majors, we glimpsed a future for the Royals at catcher that doesn’t include him. Part of that was because Perez regressed from his massive 48-homer season in 2021, which was probably all but inevitable. But we also saw Perez’s likely replacement, M.J. Melendez, in the majors for the first time. Melendez’s bat, at least, looks like a keeper. His glove, judging by the metrics, has a long way to go. Of course, metrics that lean heavily on pitch framing haven’t really liked Perez’s defense, either.
Looking ahead: The Royals have Perez under contract through 2026, when they hold a team option on him. So don’t take anything you’ve read in the previous paragraph as a suggestion the Royals are trying to nudge him out the door. It’s also difficult to imagine Perez in another uniform, though in contemporary professional sports pretty much anyone is a candidate to change teams at some point. Assuming Perez plays out his deal in K.C. and Melendez develops into a backstop who can hold down the position defensively, you could see a gradual changing of the guard, where they share time behind the plate and Perez starts to spend more time DHing, etc. For now, Perez seems like a safe bet to carry his tenure on through the next season or two.
Position: Catcher
Stability points: 26.4 (last red in 2015)
Current tenure: 4 seasons (J.T. Realmuto, 2019 to present)
Longest tenure: 10 seasons (Mike Lieberthal, 1997 to 2006)
Last season: You don’t necessarily think about catchers when you think of the Phillies, but they’ve had a number of backstops over the years who have put together nice runs. During the most recent rebuild in Philly, there was a lot of turnover and thus positions that were once bastions of stability — second base, shortstop, the rotation — turned red. But after a rough final season during Carlos Ruiz’s time at catcher, the Phils were able to bridge the gap with Cameron Rupp, Jorge Alfaro and others to get to Realmuto, and so here we are. Other long-tenured catchers during the division area for the Phils, in addition to Ruiz and Lieberthal, have included Darren Daulton and Bob Boone.
Looking ahead: Realmuto is one of the best in the business and that shines through on the positional grids. They have had three top-three finishes in catching bWAR since Realmuto took over, including the No. 1 spot last season. Realmuto is just 31 and has three more seasons left on his contract. The Phillies are set at catcher until then, at least.
Position: Shortstop
Stability points: 25.9 (last red in 2014)
Current tenure: 9 seasons (Xander Bogaerts, 2014 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 9 seasons (Bogaerts)
Last season: Bogaerts spent his ninth and final season as the Red Sox’s regular shortstop, breaking a tie with Everett Scott for Boston’s longest-ever tenure at the position. (Scott was the shortstop for the great Red Sox teams of the 1910s that featured Babe Ruth, among others.) Others, such as Nomar Garciaparra and Rico Petrocelli, have had splashier multiyear stretches as the Boston shortstop, but no one combined the excellence and duration of Bogaerts’ time in Beantown. And that time is now over.
Looking ahead: Trevor Story is around but, thanks to an elbow injury, that doesn’t help the short-term outlook much. Enrique Hernandez is around but he hit .222 last season and has never spent a full big-league season with shortstop as his primary position. Adalberto Mondesi is around but even when he’s around, he basically is never around because of an endless string of injuries. In other words, the Red Sox’s most stable position is looking very unstable at the moment.
Position: Catcher
Stability points: 24.6 (last red in 2014)
Current tenure: 6 seasons (Willson Contreras, 2017 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 16 seasons (Gabby Hartnett, 1924 to 1939)
Last season: Time goes fast. It feels like yesterday that Contreras showed up to give a boost to the already-rolling 2016 Cubs. After six seasons as the primary backstop on the North Side, Contreras is now a … Cardinal? Times are tough. Contreras departs as one of the best catchers in Cubs history, especially from an offensive standpoint. He’s nowhere in the same neighborhood of Hartnett, but that’s hardly an insult.
Incidentally, Hartnett is a perfect example of why we chose to give one-year dispensations for tenured players. As noted above, Hartnett was the Cubs’ regular catcher from 1924 to 1939. But it wasn’t an unbroken string. In 1929, Hartnett couldn’t throw because of a dead arm, as such things were described in those days, so he was limited to sporadic pinch-hitting duty for the entire season and the World Series. In 1930, he went right back to being the regular catcher and held the job for the entire decade, adding managerial duties to his workload in 1938. Those years — 1924 to 1939 — marked the Gabby Hartnett era for Chicago catchers (and, perhaps, for Cubs baseball) and it would be wrong to break it into two tenures. Even though he couldn’t catch in 1929, the job was still his.
Looking ahead: Chances are, the era of backstop stability will come to an end for the Cubs. The position figures to be shared by veterans Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart, both of whom will play based more on defensive acumen than for their weak hitting. One of the Cubs’ better prospects, Miguel Amaya, is a catcher but he has yet to play above Double-A. Only three teams have a worse projection at catcher, according to Fangraphs, so this position figures to turn red for Chicago in 2023.
Position: Relief pitchers
Stability points: 22.2 (last red in 2012)
Current tenure: 2 seasons (Jordan Romano, 2021 to present)
Longest tenure: 7 seasons (Tom Henke, 1986 to 1992)
Last season: The Blue Jays’ bullpen has generally been more solid than elite over years, but the stability score reflects how seldom it has been a gaping hole. For the purposes of tenure, we’re considering just the closer role for this piece and Romano has emerged as one of the better ones in baseball. He has been Toronto’s primary closer for two seasons now. They haven’t had a closer go more than three seasons since Henke, though Bill Koch, Casey Janssen and Roberto Osuna have all enjoyed a trio of seasons with the gig.
Looking ahead: Romano has a long way to go to catch Henke but he seems like a solid bet to become the Blue Jays’ latest three-season closer. He’s a bit of an unsung star. Over the past three seasons, Romano has a 2.03 aggregate ERA and only seven closers have accumulated more than his 61 saves. After this season, Romano has two more seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining and after that, who knows? The terms “long term” and “bullpen stopper” rarely go together.
Position: Designated Hitter
Stability points: 22.1 (last red in 2015)
Current tenure: 1 season (Luis Arraez, 2022)
Longest tenure: 3 seasons (five different players, last was Nelson Cruz, 2019 to 2021)
Last season: The Twins have had a lot of big-name DHs over the years — Cruz, Paul Molitor, David Ortiz, Dave Winfield, Jim Thome, Tony Oliva — but have never had anyone hold the job for more than three straight years. Last season, after the 2021 trade that sent out Cruz, Arraez was the most often-used player at a spot where 18 players saw action. And now Arraez is gone, having been dealt to Miami.
Looking ahead: Who knows? The Twins will again be rotating players through the DH spot in 2023 and it’s impossible to look at their roster and hazard an educated guess about who might end up with the most plate appearances at the position. And, yes, we are aware that this observation makes calling this a position of stability a bit of an oxymoron. If there is any evidence the Twins will keep their DH green in 2023 it’s simply this: They usually do.
Position: Third base
Stability points: 16.4 (last red in 2019)
Current tenure: 4 seasons (Manny Machado, 2019 to present)
Longest tenure: 5 seasons (Chase Headley, 2010 to 2014)
Last season: Machado remains one of the game’s biggest stars and he has become the single biggest source of stability on the Padres’ roster. It’s interesting to note that Machado’s tenure at the hot corner in San Diego (2019 to present) overlaps with their last red season at the position. Wait, you might observe, I don’t remember Machado having a bad season in 2019. Well, he didn’t. Machado didn’t have his best season — 2.6 bWAR — but that’s more than good enough to keep the position green. But he ended up playing 37 games at shortstop. Meanwhile, those who replaced him at third base in 2019 played so poorly, it dragged the Padres into the red.
Looking ahead: Machado’s contract runs through 2028 but he owns an opt-out after this season. On Friday, Machado told reporters he plans to exercise the opt out, though there have been rumors already that the Padres want to negotiate an extension that will remove that possibility. If that happens and perhaps even if it does not, third base in San Diego will gradually move up to the top of this methodology as one of the most stable spots in all of baseball. And the Padres have improved their depth at shortstop so much that he’s not going to have to swing back to that position to fill a void.
Position: Left field
Stability points: 16.1 (last red in 2017)
Current tenure: 1 season (Yadiel Hernandez, 2022 to present)
Longest tenure: 10 seasons (Tim Raines, 1981 to 1990)
Last season: There really is no such thing as stability for the Nationals at this point of their rebuild. Hernandez led a small college of left fielders in 2023 in appearances and productivity. The Nationals eked out just enough overall production to avoid turning this position red and thus are still riding the coattails of Juan Soto‘s run at the position, which ended when he moved over to right field.
Looking ahead: Alas, the Hernandez era might be at an end, as he was outrighted to the minors after the season. The Nats signed veteran Corey Dickerson to take over in left. Dickerson is 34, so his reign is likely to be a short one. The identity of the left fielder who comes after that is unknown. Still, as we stated, the bar for keeping a position green is fairly low, so if Dickerson and others can keep the Nats out of the bottom 10 in left field production, perhaps this score can grow a bit in 2023.
Position: Starting pitchers
Stability points: 15.5 (last red in 2018)
Current tenure: 5 seasons (Tyler Mahle, 2018 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 11 seasons (Eppa Rixey, 1921 to 1931)
Last season: The period of 2015 to 2018 saw the Reds struggle to find anything resembling competent starting pitching. Since then, it’s been the organization’s strength, even as standouts like Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Mahle have moved on. Castillo and Mahle were both shipped out midseason in 2022 and, even as Cincinnati lost 100 games for the first time in 40 years, the rotation in aggregate still finished 14th in bWAR, with future hope provided by the presence of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft.
Looking ahead: The young rotation trio is just getting started and, the Reds hope, will soon be joined by other homegrown talents like Brandon Williamson and Chase Petty. The constant through this transition has been pitching coach Derek Johnson, one of the best in the business. Whether this mix can keep the rotation green in 2023 will be a challenge given how much depends on young pitchers, but the overall outlook for this group remains positive.
Position: Starting pitchers
Stability points: 14.3 (last red in 2017)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (David Peterson, 2020 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 11 seasons (Jerry Koosman, 1968 to 1978)
Last season: Because the Mets look like such a complete (and expensive) team now, their place here in the stability pecking order seems incongruous. But there has been a lot of tumult in Flushing since their last World Series trip, and while they are in the process of growing several new stability scores, they reset at most positions at some point. For now, the starters barely out-rate the stability at first base and second base (both 13-ish points). The Mets continued their trend in recent years of getting decent rotation production despite key injuries. The name that leaps to mind is Jacob deGrom of course, now departed. DeGrom had an eight-year tenure streak end as he finished sixth on the Mets in starts. We’d give him the one-year allowance we mentioned, but he signed with the Rangers and thus the tenure has ended.
Looking ahead: The rotation turnover really paints Peterson as something of a survivor. Including the shortened 2020 season, he hasn’t made more than 19 starts in any of his three big league seasons, but has landed in the Mets’ top five in games started in each of those campaigns. Thus, through a whole confluence of circumstances, he ends up as the Mets’ most tenured starter. Now he enters the 2023 season as the sixth guy in the Mets’ high-powered, reconfigured rotation. Does that mean his tenure will end? If recent history is a guide, you probably shouldn’t count him out.
Position: Shortstop
Stability points: 13.7 (last red in 2017)
Current tenure: 7 seasons (Tim Anderson, 2016 to present)
Longest tenure: 18 seasons (Luke Appling, 1932 to 1949)
Last season: Anderson struggled with injuries and saw a power drop for a second straight season but played in the All-Star game. The injuries are somewhat persistent. Anderson has been the White Sox’s regular shortstop since he arrived in the majors in 2016, but he’s had just one season where he played at least 150 games. When he has played, though, he’s produced — and it’s not a stretch to say Anderson remains the heart and soul of this version of the ChiSox.
Looking ahead: Anderson turns 30 this season and has two more seasons of team control on his deal. Is it possible for a big-league shortstop to be a young 30? If so, it feels like an apt description for Anderson. Shortstop should remain the least of the White Sox’s problems in the near term. Farther out, the end of Anderson’s deal could coincide with the arrival of the White Sox’s top prospect, Colson Montgomery, who is — you guessed it — a shortstop.
Position: Starting pitchers
Stability points: 11.3 (last red in 2016)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (Zac Gallen and Madison Bumgarner, 2020 to present)
Longest tenure: 7 seasons (Patrick Corbin, 2012 to 2018)
Last season: There’s been heavy turnover like other rebuilding teams, but Arizona’s rotation emerged as its most consistent current strength by virtue of a string of not-terrible seasons. Overall, the Diamondbacks have been a little below average generally in the rotation, but not bottom barrel. Last season was more of the same, with Arizona getting terrific seasons from Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, a league-average-ish season from Zach Davies and then struggling for the most part, at least until late in the season.
Looking ahead: With Gallen and Kelly fronting the rotation and Davies back for more, there is every reason to think the Arizona rotation can move up from the middle of the pack, if not this year then soon. That’s the hope the club has in young starters like Drew Jameson and Ryne Nelson, who both flourished in late-season debuts, and Brandon Pfaadt, the organization’s top pitching prospect who should debut in 2023.
Position: Designated Hitter
Stability points: 11.1 (last red in 2016)
Current tenure: 1 (Carlos Santana, 2022)
Longest tenure: 10 seasons (Edgar Martinez, 1995 to 2004)
Last season: On the Jerry DiPoto Mariners, it’s been pretty hard to compile any kind of tenure. Their positional grid of reds and greens almost looks like an exercise of continually plugging up one hole while another one springs open elsewhere. Through it all, the Mariners have strung together a short streak of seasons in which they haven’t cratered at DH. It’s not very exciting, particularly because other than a three-year stint from Nelson Cruz, the Mariners have generally rotated at DH since Edgar Martinez retired. That continued in 2022.
Looking ahead: A lot probably hinges on the development of stalled prospect Jarred Kelenic. Not that he’ll DH, but his status will impact who gets used at the spot. If Kelenic can put it together, then we might see a more stable DH rotation for the Mariners with AJ Pollock and Tommy La Stella forming a rough platoon. But if Kelenic struggles, then Pollock’s services will be required much more frequently in the outfield.
Position: Starting pitchers
Stability points: 9.4 (last red in 2019)
Current tenure: 4 seasons (Sandy Alcantara, 2019 to present and Pablo Lopez, 2019 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 8 seasons (Ricky Nolasco, 2006 to 2013)
Last season: For many of these teams, the recent history of their franchises is illustrated by these green and red positional grids I keep referring to. For the Marlins, through 2017, they had built up some nice stability points at catcher and all three outfield spots. You might remember some of those players: J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich. But as of 2019, they were working on a five-year streak of reds in the starting pitching category. They are trying to return to contention with a revamped rotation, and that plan is coming together, at least for the starters. That, however, impacted catcher and the three outfield spots, which were all red last season.
Looking ahead: We don’t know what’s going to happen elsewhere on the diamond, but the Marlins are sitting pretty when it comes to the rotation. As a group, the starters rose to fifth in bWAR last season. With reigning Cy Young winner Alcantara leading a deep group of young hurlers, this should remain the foundation of the Marlins for years to come.
Position: Center field
Stability points: 9.3 (last red in 2019)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (Cedric Mullins, 2020 to present)
Longest tenure: 12 seasons (Paul Blair, 1965 to 1976)
Last season: Rebuilding teams are almost always going to look unstable in a system like this because they have intentionally turned their roster over in an effort to be better down the line. You know … a rebuild. Teams often will retain a key veteran through the process to provide a measure of continuity and to perhaps give their unhappy fans the sense that this is indeed still their favorite team. The Orioles did this to a degree with Trey Mancini, but he was moved last season, leaving Mullins as the team’s 28-year-old positional stalwart. He regressed some from his monster 2021 season but above-average batting, positive metrics in baserunning and defense and 3.8 bWAR will do just fine.
Looking ahead: In some respects, it feels like something of a miracle that Mullins is still in Baltimore. But he is, and he still has two more years of team control remaining. Now that he’s into the arbitration phase of his career, Mullins will become more expensive, but it’ll be happening at a time when Baltimore is starting to ramp its payroll back up. He’s unlikely to replicate what long-time Orioles fans became accustomed to from Blair or Adam Jones, but Baltimore should be set at this spot for at least the next couple of years.
Position: Catcher
Stability points: 8.3 (last red in 2019)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (Sean Murphy, 2020 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 10 seasons (Terry Steinbach, 1987 to 1996)
Last season: Oakland’s positional grid is the bleakest in the majors. Thanks to Murphy, they had at least one green spot last season. Everything else — everything — was red. And now Murphy is in Atlanta.
Looking ahead: But maybe all is not lost when it comes to possibly staying green (kelly green, right?) behind the plate. Retaining Murphy would have offered more assurance, but a big reason he was traded is because the A’s were able to get younger (and cheaper) former Braves prospect Shea Langeliers from Atlanta in the Matt Olsen trade. Oakland also has a quality backup in Manny Pina, whom they got from Atlanta in the deal that sent Murphy to the Braves.
Position: Relief pitchers
Stability points: 8.1 (last red in 2020)
Current tenure: 1 season (Camilo Doval, 2022 to present)
Longest tenure: 6 seasons (Rod Beck, 1992 to 1997)
Last season: The Giants have seen a ton of turnover in recent years and also some pretty wild swings in performance. At the happy end, Frisco won a franchise-record 107 games in 2021 and perhaps its biggest strength was quality depth. Indeed, San Francisco was all green, across the board, on the positional grid. Last season, it fell to red at six spots. So we’re left with the two-season reign of a whole bunch of relievers as the largest source of stability. That group has ranked in the top 10 by bWAR in each of the last two seasons.
Looking ahead: The Giants should again have a solid relief staff, and Doval seems likely to retain his position at the back of the bullpen. It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants can build some momentum at other positions though. One anomalous rating that could come into play: The Giants’ second-highest position by stability points is DH, even though I’ve only allowed National League teams to compile points at that spot for the 2020 and 2022 seasons, while basically giving them a green rating for 2021 only with no additional points. Thus the Giants have some results building up at the circuit’s newest position already.
Position: Third base
Stability points: 7.3 (last red in 2019)
Current tenure: 3 seasons (Ke’Bryan Hayes, 2020 to present)
Longest tenure: 13 seasons (Pie Traynor, 1922 to 1934)
Last season: You probably have to be as big of a baseball history nerd as I am to get a kick out of Hayes and Traynor being listed together, as both built reputations on strong glove work at the hot corner for the Pirates. (Some modern defensive metrics don’t rate Traynor’s defense as strong and, as far as I’m concerned, those metrics have failed in this regard.) Anyway, Hayes’ bat will have to make quite a leap to match Traynor’s offensive acumen, but he’s still young.
Looking ahead: This will be a pivotal season for Hayes, especially at the plate, as we start to think about him having a long run as an elite third baseman. The defense is there, though he is in danger of being perpetually overlooked in that area simply because he plays in the same league as Nolan Arenado. The bat is the key though, as Hayes didn’t show much growth statistically from 2021 to 2022.
Position: Right field
Stability points: 7.1 (last red in 2019)
Current tenure: 1 season (Adolis Garcia, 2022 to present)
Longest tenure: 6 seasons (Ruben Sierra, 1987 to 1992)
Last season: Coming out of an attrition-addled rebuild, Garcia has become one of the Rangers’ success stories with a style of play full of loud stuff (homers, steals, baserunner kills) and light on quiet stuff (plate discipline, pitch recognition.) After playing more in center than right in 2021, that flipped in 2022, and so now, he shows up here. His defensive metrics were better in center, so we’ll see if that lasts, though one-season outfield metrics are really unreliable.
Looking ahead: Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, both in their first seasons for Texas, haven’t had time to build up much momentum at their respective positions. But chances are, at the rate they’ll build up points, they’ll emerge as competitors for the Texas stability title against each other — and Garcia — this season.
Position: Relief pitchers
Stability points: 6.2 (last red in 2017)
Current tenure: 2 seasons (Gregory Soto, 2021 to 2022)
Longest tenure: 8 seasons (Mike Henneman, 1988 to 1995)
Last season: The Tigers’ bullpen hasn’t really been a strength, per se, but they’ve gotten enough good work to keep the spot green. If we were going to go to gradations of color, it would be a very pale green. But it’s at least not as bad as other spots all over the field. The Tigers’ highest-ranking position by bWAR last season was at catcher, where they were 14th. That’s two straight OK-ish seasons for Detroit backstops but before that, they had a three-year streak of ranking 29th or worse. Thus the relievers win the stability title.
Looking ahead: The bullpen projects to finish 29th, per Fangraphs, and Soto was traded to the Phillies. So, the Tigers may be getting used to this No. 30 spot on the stability leaderboard, as next year’s top positional score could be even worse. Right now, it’s really hard to identify a position of strength or stability on the Tigers. Well, except for at manager (A.J. Hinch) and we aren’t including those, for now.