Quarterback Bryce Young lived up to the hype of being a five-star college football recruit, as the Carolina Panthers made him a No. 1 NFL draft pick on Thursday night.
However, not all No. 1 picks have had that accurate of an NFL forecast. We talk often about the unknown variables when evaluating high school prospects off pure film and combine results. That inexact science comes to fruition when looking back on top selections.
Dating back to the first draft class of the ESPN recruiting era in 2009, only six No. 1 selections were ranked as five-star prospects out of high school. In fact, four No. 1 draft picks landed outside our ESPN 300 rankings.
Craig Haubert, Tom Luginbill and Billy Tucker break down what former No. 1 draft prospects were like as high school prospects.
Editor’s note: This story was originally published in April 2021. It has been updated through the 2023 NFL draft.
Georgia | Class of 2006 ESPN ranking: No. 5
Nicknamed the Howitzer for his cannon of an arm, Stafford was (and still is) physically superior in terms of arm talent as any high school prospect over the past 15 years. However, in dissecting his college career, he probably should have had better results. A three-year starter, Stafford competed only 57% of his passes and threw double-digit interceptions in each season at Georgia.
Few players with his college production have gone No. 1 overall in the NFL draft. Nevertheless, his physical attributes had NFL scouts drooling because he could do things with his arm that couldn’t be coached. Since 2009, Stafford has been a steady, consistent performer, first with the Detroit Lions and then with the Los Angeles Rams, who traded for Stafford prior to the 2021 season, when he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns, leading the Rams to a Super Bowl LVI victory.
Oklahoma | Class of 2006 ESPN ranking: Three stars
The 2006 recruiting class included four first-round quarterbacks in Stafford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and Josh Freeman.
Bradford was a lightly recruited in-state prospect for the Sooners, who believed they could develop and groom the former three-sport athlete (he also golfed and played basketball). Bradford redshirted as a freshman and would eventually become a three-year starter and 2008 Heisman Trophy winner before suffering a season-ending injury his junior season in 2009. He declared early for the draft having thrown for 88 touchdowns in three seasons.
Despite rehabbing a shoulder injury, he was drafted first overall and earned Rookie of the Year honors. Talent was never a question. When healthy, Bradford showed flashes of why he was so highly touted coming out of college. But he could never shake the injury bug, starting all 16 games in a season just twice in his nine-year career.
Florida/Auburn | Class of 2007 ESPN ranking: Four stars
A journeyman player for the majority of his college career, Newton became the face of college football in 2010, leading Auburn to the BCS national title while securing the Heisman Trophy to complete his junior season. Newton started his career with much controversy as a Florida Gator with off-the-field issues that led to his transfer to Blinn College before finally signing with the Auburn Tigers in 2010. His junior season was one for the ages — 30 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions while also rushing for over 1,400 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Newton’s NFL career, for the most part, has been successful. He was named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011, NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year in 2015 and made one Super Bowl appearance. His past three seasons have been injury riddled, and that, paired with declining production, led to his release from the Carolina Panthers. After a short, unproductive stint with the New England Patriots, he was released prior to the start of 2021 in favor of current starter Mac Jones. Newton is currently a free agent and has expressed interest in playing again.
Stanford | Class of 2008 ESPN ranking: No. 61
Looking back, Luck was intriguing because his mobility and speed were never really on display in high school to the level that we saw at Stanford (he ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the NFL combine). He was well-groomed but also was able to redshirt at Stanford, which helped his growth both mentally and physically. He transformed the Stanford program and engineered the most prolific career in program history.
As a redshirt freshman, he led the Cardinal to the Sun Bowl and followed that by finishing second in the Heisman voting in 2010 and 2011, when Stanford finished 12-1 and 11-2, respectively, and spent 24 weeks in the AP Top 10. He was the heir to Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts, playing seven seasons before surprisingly retiring before the 2019 season amid injuries.
Central Michigan | Class of 2009 ESPN ranking: Unranked
To no one’s surprise, this one came out of nowhere. Fisher was a 6-foot-6, 225-pound offensive tackle/defensive end who was underdeveloped and considered a late bloomer, which hampered his recruitment against the likes of prospects who were more physically developed at the same stage. He was first team All-MAC in his final year, but lightly regarded nationally.
He joined Joe Staley as the second Central Michigan alumni to go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft. His pre-draft measurables reflected his late-bloomer development, clocking a 5.05 40-yard dash at 6-foot-7, 306 pounds, at the combine. Fisher, for the most part, was as advertised for eight seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs, playing both right and left tackle, but tore his Achilles tendon before Super Bowl LV. Fisher signed a one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts in 2021 and started 15 games at left tackle. He was released after the season and subsequently signed with the Miami Dolphins. He is currently a free agent.
South Carolina | Class of 2011 ESPN ranking: No. 1
Clowney was the rarest of rare physical prospects in high school — the best I’ve ever seen — and proved to be a disruptive force during his three years at South Carolina. As expected, he quickly contributed and was named SEC Freshman of the Year. By the time he left for the NFL after his junior season, he was a two-time first-team All-American and among the program’s all-time leaders in tackles for loss, sacks and forced fumbles.
However, there has always been one issue that has plagued Clowney at each level: consistent effort and performance. When he wanted to be, he was the best player on the field, and it was never even close, but when he took plays off, he would disappear, which hampered his ability to maximize his production and potential. Clowney struggled in 2019 (Seattle Seahawks) and 2020 (Tennessee Titans) before showing flashes of his dominance with the Cleveland Browns in 2021, posting 37 tackles and nine sacks (his most since 2018), but his production dipped in 2022. He is currently a free agent.
Florida State | Class of 2012 ESPN ranking: No. 14
A two-sport athlete who also excelled in baseball, Winston was the top-rated quarterback in the 2012 class. During the evaluation process, two things stood out about Winston as a prospect. First: his obvious talent as a QB prospect, with his arm strength and mobility. That combination gave him the ability to improvise and create big plays. The other, which became evident during 2012 Under Armour All-America week, was that while he wasn’t a strong, consistent practice player, he had a knack for elevating his play in games.
In college, he continued to demonstrate that he could step up under the big lights. Winston lived up to his billing as the top quarterback prospect in his class, winning his first 26 games as a starter, leading the Seminoles to a national title in 2013 and winning the Heisman Trophy, among other accolades. While his time as a pro with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints has been inconsistent, he still has the ability to showcase the talent that he showed when he was among the top prospects in his class.
California | Class of 2013 ESPN ranking: No. 267
The 2013 ESPN 300 QB class overall was a disappointment — just a handful of the 33 signal-callers in that group went on to realize their promise. Four of the top five went undrafted (the top QB, Christian Hackenberg, went in the second round). Two of the best from that class emerged from near the bottom in Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett (No. 262) and Goff, who not only met expectations but rose to the top of that group.
A quick contributor at Cal, Goff became the first true freshman in school history to start the season opener under center and set several single-season passing records. Over the course of his career, he started 37 games and left with more than two dozen school records. As a prospect, Goff didn’t wow with his mobility among an emerging crop of dual-threat quarterbacks, but he impressed with his quick release, accuracy and touch on the deep ball.
With just a few offers, and interest limited to programs out West, Goff would prove worthy of more attention and a higher ranking, but he was still a talented prospect who impressed us and ranked among the best in his class. He helped lead the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance before he was traded to the Lions in 2021 amid declining production. However, he has been a catalyst in Motor City, throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns en route to his third Pro Bowl in 2022.
Texas A&M | Class of 2014 ESPN ranking: No. 4
The line that can be drawn from college football recruit Garrett to No. 1 NFL draft pick Garrett is a straight line. Coming out in the 2014 class, it was clear he was one of the elite prospects in the nation, ranked first at the defensive end position. Even back in high school, he possessed an impressive blend of size, power and agility that allowed him to be a dominant force, which he would go on to be at Texas A&M as well.
What equally impressed about Garrett was that he was not just physically gifted, but he entered college as a sound football player with his technique and feel for the position. A disruptive defender, he led the Aggies in sacks and was named team defensive MVP his freshman season. With continued positive development as a college player, it really was no surprise this former five-star and Under Armour All-American wound up being selected first overall by the Cleveland Browns in the NFL draft just a few years later. Garrett has posted double-digit sack totals in his past five seasons and forced 13 fumbles in his six-year career.
Texas Tech/Oklahoma | Class of 2013 ESPN ranking: Three stars
We’ll be the first to admit that recruiting is not an exact science, and Mayfield is a shining example. Not a highly touted prospect in his class, Mayfield was a three-star ranked within the top 70 at his position. While his ranking now appears shockingly low, it fit the consensus at the time.
This future Heisman winner and top NFL pick held just a few offers — none from Power 5 programs — leaving high school. A good player for Lake Travis High School, he was poised with good tools, but none that made him necessarily stand out. And height was a concern.
He ultimately walked on at Texas Tech, where he proved detractors wrong, making several starts and earning Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors. Mayfield transferred to Oklahoma and blossomed there, leading the Sooners to three straight conference titles, setting several school and conference records and departing college with over 14,000 yards passing.
Mayfield’s tenure with the Cleveland Browns ended after four years. His 2021 season was his worst in terms of production (17 TDs, 13 INTs) and he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers after the Browns acquired Deshaun Watson. After the Panthers cut him in December, he was immediately picked up by the Rams, playing in five games. He signed with the Bucs this offseason.
Texas A&M/Oklahoma | Class of 2015 ESPN ranking: No. 13
Initially, size was a concern for the 5-foot-11 Murray, and early rankings for the 2015 class put Murray lower in the pack. But as the evaluation process unfolded, the focus shifted to his many strengths. He went undefeated as a starter for Allen High School in Texas, and he is dynamic enough to be a threat as a runner and a talented passer with a smooth, quick release and impressive accuracy.
A high-level two-sport athlete, Murray was named an Under Armour All-American in both football and baseball, finishing the 2015 cycle as the top-rated quarterback in his recruiting class. He signed with Texas A&M and contributed as a freshman but transferred the next year to Oklahoma, where he initially sat behind Mayfield and then demonstrated why he was so highly ranked coming out of high school, earning the Heisman Trophy in 2018. Murray was also a first-round pick in the 2018 MLB draft but has gone on to have success under center with the Arizona Cardinals, signing a five-year, $230.5 million contract in July 2022 before tearing his right ACL in December.
Ohio State/LSU | Class of 2015 ESPN ranking: No. 298
Burrow’s final season at LSU was a terrific one, leading the Tigers to a national title, setting several school and NCAA single-season passing records and winning the Heisman. While the argument can certainly be made that he exceeded expectations, the leap from four-star prospect to No. 1 overall pick was not a big one; it just took some time.
Ranked inside the ESPN 300, he was ranked in the top 10 at his position and was selected to the national Semper Fi All-America game. Though he wasn’t among the five-stars, he definitely had established himself as one of the top QB prospects in the 2015 class. An instinctive player with a live arm and good mobility, Burrow was a prospect who showed improvement each year from his sophomore to senior seasons.
Once in college, he had to wait for his opportunity, sitting behind ESPN 300 QBs J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State. He transferred to LSU, and after settling in, he ultimately took his game to the next level and became the top prospect in the 2020 draft.
He is certainly producing like a No. 1 selection, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. He led the Bengals to a Super Bowl LVI appearance and the 2022 AFC Championship Game.
Clemson | Class of 2018 ESPN ranking: No. 2
Lawrence was the No. 2 overall prospect in 2018 class, edged out slightly by fellow QB Justin Fields. He had no flaws physically or mentally, and went on to become one of the most prolific quarterbacks in college football history.
He led Clemson to a national championship as a true freshman in 2018 and concluded his career 34-2 as a starter. Lawrence threw for over 10,000 yards with 90 touchdowns and rushed for close to 1,000 more.
There was no doubt the Jacksonville Jaguars would select him first overall in 2021, as Lawrence drew comparisons to John Elway and Peyton Manning. After a rocky rookie season in which he threw for 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, Lawrence led the Jaguars to the playoffs in 2022, throwing for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Georgia | Class of 2019 ESPN ranking: No. 46
Walker was ranked just inside the top 50, with five defensive ends in the 2019 ESPN 300 ranked higher. Physically, he was one of the better defensive prospects in the entire class, measuring at 6-5, 263 pounds and posting a 4.9 40-yard dash with a 4.5 shuttle and 28-inch vert.
He signed with Georgia and led the Bulldogs to the 2022 national championship. His college stats, like his high school ones, were modest, finishing his career in Athens with 65 total career tackles, 13 tackles for a loss and 9.5 sacks. The combine is where his stock rose again. He gained 11 pounds from high school, lowered his 40-dash time to 4.51 and shuttle to 4.32. His vertical increased to 35.5.
Walker’s No. 1 selection came as a bit of a surprise, but the Jaguars felt he ideally fit their 3-4 scheme as an edge linebacker. He flashed more than he was consistent, but he made strides down the stretch and finished with 49 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 10 QB hits and five tackles for a loss.
Alabama | Class of 2020 ESPN ranking: No. 5
Young, the No. 5 overall recruit and No. 1 QB in the 2020 class, was arguably the most poised prospect we have evaluated since we started ranking players in 2006. In addition to controlling the mental aspect of the game, Young would also shred opposing defenses on the ground with his excellent speed and quickness. And against teams that loaded the box to stop the run, he would light them up with his laser accuracy.
He led Mater Dei High School (California) to a state championship as a junior and followed up that campaign with 4,528 yards, 58 TDs and just six INTs. The dynamic Young also rushed for 357 yards and 10 more TDs. In total he accumulated 68 TDs in just 13 games.
Young backed up 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones (Patriots) as a freshman and set records at Alabama for passing yards (4,872) and TDs (47) in a Heisman Trophy-winning sophomore season. After another spectacular campaign as a junior, he finished as the only Alabama QB to throw for over 3,000 yards in consecutive seasons and became the Carolina Panthers‘ No. 1 pick in 2023.