Prolific passers, intriguing transfers, second acts: Ranking all 133 FBS QB situations into tiers

David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterMay 16, 2023, 08:00 AM ET
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- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.

After back-to-back national championships with Stetson Bennett at the helm, Georgia will have a new starting quarterback in 2023.

After two seasons of Heisman-caliber play from Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, both Alabama and Ohio State are looking for replacements at QB, too.

At Clemson, sophomore Cade Klubnik steps into the QB1 job after two rollercoaster years with DJ Uiagalelei at the helm. He’ll be paired with a new offensive coordinator and fresh optimism that the Tigers can return to greatness.

Those four teams — Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson — have combined for 21 playoff appearances, 23 playoff wins and seven national championships since the College Football Playoff began in 2014, which, coincidentally, was also the last time all four schools replaced their starting QB in the same offseason.

That makes for a strange year in which the QB power rankings are missing some familiar names, and several of the top programs in the sport are still in a state of flux at the most prominent position on the field.

So, does that mean we’re primed (or Coach Primed, as it were) for a topsy-turvy season in which the blue bloods of the playoff era take a step back in favor of some rising powers with big-time QBs like USC, Florida State and Washington?

Perhaps.

Or perhaps the 2023 season will prove once again that, for all the great talent that’s come through places like Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson, there’s always a supply of future stars waiting in the wings.

Let’s break down the QB situations for all 133 FBS programs by tiers.

Jump to: The most prolific QBs | The consistently very good
Low ceiling, high floor | A fresh start
Top of Group of 5 | Intriguing transfers

TIER 1a: The guys we’ll be dissecting with every throw between now and next April (two players)

USC‘s Caleb Williams
North Carolina‘s Drake Maye

What’s left to be said about Williams? He was brilliant as a true freshman at Oklahoma. He won the Heisman in 2022 after relocating to USC. He threw 42 touchdowns with just five picks, ran for another 10 scores and tallied nearly 5,000 total yards of offense. Thanks to Williams, America had to care about the Pac-12 all the way up until championship weekend for the first time since 2016.

Then there’s Maye, North Carolina’s burgeoning superstar who topped 5,000 yards of offense (most in FBS) and racked up 45 touchdowns in his first season as the starter in 2022 and had many draft analysts proclaiming he’d have been the first player taken in the 2023 draft, if only he’d been eligible.

Yes, there are critiques that will surely grow louder this year, but Williams and Maye are the real deal.

TIER 1b: The most prolific QBs not named Williams or Maye (four players)

Florida State‘s Jordan Travis
Oregon‘s Bo Nix
Utah‘s Cam Rising
Washington‘s Michael Penix Jr.

Last year, Penix had nine games in which he threw for 300 yards or more and tossed multiple TD passes — most in FBS. In the playoff era, Washington QBs had done that just 11 times total prior. Aside from Mike Leach proteges, the only other Pac-12 quarterbacks to throw for 4,500 yards and account for 35 touchdowns in the playoff era are Williams (a possible future No. 1 overall pick) and Jared Goff (the No. 1 overall pick in 2016).

Here’s the concern with Penix, though: Washington played just two defenses ranked in the top 50 by expected points added last year, Oregon State and Texas. (And only the Beavers were top 50 in pass defense EPA.) In those two games, he completed 58% of his throws with three passing touchdowns, two picks, just five completions of 20 yards or more and a lowly 5.48 yards-per-dropback — a full three yards less than against his 11 other opponents.

During FSU’s six-game winning streak to close the season, Travis posted a Total QBR of 91.1, the best mark in the country over that stretch. He tallied nearly 1,800 yards, accounted for 19 touchdowns with just three turnovers and had 74 plays of 10 or more yards — more than 12 per game.
When Oregon was tied or trailing in the second half last season, Nix accounted for seven touchdowns, no turnovers, posted an FBS-best 89.6 QBR and nearly a quarter of his touches resulted in a play of 10 or more yards. And all of that is counting the Georgia game.
Rising and Williams are the only two returning QBs with two seasons of an 80-plus Total QBR under their belts. The only players who’ve done it three times since 2004? Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence.
“[Rising] embodies the program,” said one opposing coach. “He’s tough. You take everything away, he can scramble and get a first down. … [He] is one of those guys you can feel the whole team rallies behind him because of his mental makeup.”

TIER 2: You may not have noticed, but these guys are really good (four players)

Arkansas‘ KJ Jefferson
Kansas‘ Jalon Daniels
Michigan‘s J.J. McCarthy
UTSA‘s Frank Harris

Here’s a McCarthy conundrum: In his final six games last season, he completed 60% of his throws just once. That’s bad, right?

And until the Ohio State game, he averaged better than 8 yards per throw just twice against Power 5 foes (Maryland and Indiana). That’s mediocre at best, right?

But in those last three games — vs. the Buckeyes, Purdue in the Big Ten title game and TCU in the playoff, he had eight TDs, three picks and averaged 10.2 yards-per-throw. That’s pretty darned good!

Michigan’s offense isn’t like the others whose QBs rank among the top tiers. The Wolverines have a tandem of great backs, want to play physical and don’t ask McCarthy to drop back and throw 50 times a game. They do, however, ask him to do a lot at the line of scrimmage.

“There’s a thought that if you can get him into a dropback passing game, you can take advantage of him a little bit,” one Big Ten coordinator said. “But he’s in a complex system, and that can affect things like completion percentage. They don’t always do a lot of stuff that gets easy completions. I do think he’s very talented, and I think he really gets them going with his feet. That’s the underrated part of his game, and it really helps them with their run game.”

No returning FBS quarterback finished last season with a better Total QBR than Daniels. That’s a stat that should win you a bar bet … and if you’ve watched enough Kansas football over the years, you’ve probably spent plenty of time in bars.
Jefferson’s reputation seemed to take a hit as a result of Arkansas’ disappointing 2022 season, but that’s absurd. He was, arguably, the lone reason the Hogs were competitive. He was on the field for 428 snaps vs. Power 5 opponents last season and off it for 154. With Jefferson, Arkansas averaged 6.3 yards per play, 8.3 yards per pass and 5.3 yards per rush with a 113.1 passer rating. Without him, the Razorbacks averaged 5.2 yards per play, 7.2 yards per pass, 4 yards per rush and had a 69 passer rating.
Against man coverage last season, Harris had 17 touchdown throws, three interceptions, averaged 11.1 yards-per-attempt and posted a QBR of 95.7, best in the country. And for reasons that defy explanation, teams still played man against the Roadrunners on 153 dropbacks last season.

TIER 3: Never question the system (12 players, six jobs)

Alabama‘s Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson
Clemson‘s Cade Klubnik
Georgia‘s Carson Beck (or Brock Vandagriff)
Ohio State‘s Kyle McCord (or Devin Brown)
Penn State‘s Drew Allar (or Beau Pribula)
Tennessee‘s Joe Milton III (or Nico Iamaleava)

Much has been written about the Clemson QB drama the past two years, and the Tigers (reasonably) believe the ship will be righted this year under new OC Garrett Riley. Klubnik’s limited playing time in 2022 was a roller coaster ride (great in the opener, awful against Notre Dame, great against UNC, bad vs. Tennessee), but given the struggles of Uiagalelei, too, it’s fair to wonder how much was the QB and how much was the scheme and supporting cast. So, let’s look at the Tigers’ QB struggles from another angle.

From 2013 to 2017, Clemson signed 14 receivers out of high school (including former walk-on Hunter Renfrow). Seven were drafted. Eight played in the NFL. Eight finished their Clemson careers with at least 1,000 yards.

From 2018 to 2022, the Tigers signed 15 receivers out of high school. None have been drafted thus far. Only Justyn Ross and Joe Ngata have reached 1,000 yards, and only Beaux Collins and Antonio Williams seem like safe bets to get there. Meanwhile, Ross’ best games came in the 2018 playoff, blue-chip recruits like Ngata, Frank Ladson Jr., EJ Williams and Dacari Collins haven’t panned out, and the jury is still out on younger receivers like Adam Randall, Cole Turner and Troy Stellato.

In other words, Klubnik will be in the spotlight as the Tigers’ starter, but the supporting cast needs to take a big step forward if Clemson wants to return to glory.

“There haven’t been any first- or second-rounders, no all-league guys [at wideout],” one ACC coach said. “Obviously that speaks volumes, but I’m not sure why that is. They had a run of some really, really good ones, but how much of that is the quarterback? Does it have to do with the guy calling plays? It’s all connected.”

There are questions about Milton after false starts at both Michigan and Tennessee when initially named the starter, but in limited time last year he averaged nearly 12 yards per pass with 10 touchdowns and no picks, beat Clemson in a bowl game and can throw a football farther than the average EV can travel without recharging.

More important than Milton’s ridiculous arm strength, however, is the Josh Heupel system. In seven years as a coordinator or head coach, his primary starting QBs have averaged 3,300 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and six picks per season.

In Nick Saban’s tenure at Alabama, the Tide have entered seven offseasons without an incumbent starter before 2023. The eventual winners of the starting job in those seasons completed 67% of their throws, accounted for 192 touchdowns and just 53 turnovers and posted a combined 79-4 record, with Alabama winning four national championships.
Since Urban Meyer’s first season in Columbus in 2012, Ohio State has had a QB1 with a Total QBR better than 70 in every season, and one with a Total QBR better than 80 in all but three seasons. How impressive is that? Last year, just 13 players had a Total QBR of 80 or better. One won a national title, two were drafted with the first two picks in the NFL draft and two others were drafted.

So, at Ohio State, it’s the system, right?

“I don’t think that’s fair to the guys who’ve played there,” one Big Ten coach said. “They’ve had really talented quarterbacks. Just look at the Georgia game last year. Half that defense is playing for the Philadelphia Eagles, and they couldn’t stop [Stroud].”

The coach noted the sudden decline at Clemson after a trio of elite QBs and suggested the same thing could happen anywhere.

“When you don’t have a guy, you realize how important it is to have a guy when you did,” the coach said.

A counterpoint: Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson are still on this offense. A QB running Iowa’s offense could still throw for 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns with that cast.
Both Georgia and Penn State are moving on from QBs who won a lot of games but spent most of their careers dodging criticism from fans. So, will their successors with more recruiting pedigree actually win as much?

Allar is exceptionally talented, and will share a backfield with two of the best runners in the country.

Beck appeared to secure the Georgia job this spring, and he certainly looks the part a bit more than Stetson Bennett did.

Allar and Beck may well have better NFL evaluations when it’s all said and done, but the bar for wins and losses in college will be awfully high.

TIER 4a: Consistently very good (seven players)

Coastal Carolina‘s Grayson McCall
Duke‘s Riley Leonard
Kansas State‘s Will Howard
LSU‘s Jayden Daniels
Notre Dame‘s Sam Hartman
Oklahoma‘s Dillon Gabriel
Tulane ‘s Michael Pratt

Daniels led the nation in scramble yards last season with 641 — 80 more than any other player. He averaged nearly 7 yards per scramble after contact. Twenty-six of his scrambles went for 10 yards or more, and his missed tackle rate was nearly double the national average for scrambling QBs.

In other words, Daniels is really dangerous with his legs.

But just how dangerous is he with his arm?

He averaged 6.1 yards-per-pass or less in six games in 2022. He had multiple TD passes in regulation against just three FBS opponents. Against FBS teams, his raw QBR on throws more than 10 yards downfield was just 74.9, 78th nationally, behind Jeff Sims, Brady Cook and Graham Mertz. No Power 5 QB had a higher percentage of his total yards come on the ground.

“He’s a real elite mover, but I think he grew a lot as a passer throughout the year,” one opposing coach said. “I think he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the country and an NFL player.”

Howard took over for Adrian Martinez about halfway through last season, and his impact on the style of offense the Wildcats played was instantaneous. K-State’s successful play rate was about the same with both QBs, and Martinez actually had the higher completion percentage by a decent margin. But Howard opened up the vertical game, averaging better than 9 air yards per pass, throwing more than 16% of his attempts beyond 20 yards (compared to just 11% for Martinez) and attacking the sticks on third and fourth down, where the Howard-led offense converted 37 of 76 dropbacks compared to just 11 of 54 for Martinez.
Much has been made of Hartman’s adjustment to a new offensive system after so much success in Wake Forest’s slow-mesh option, but that may overlook the bigger change to his offensive surroundings. In five seasons at Wake Forest, Hartman played with five different receivers who finished with at least 1,000 yards. Notre Dame has had just one 1,000-yard receiver since 2015. While Notre Dame may be the team with more blue-chip talent, the Deacons surrounded Hartman with some top-tier receivers.

Of course, Hartman could have made Wake’s receivers look a lot better, as one ACC coach noted: “He’s super accurate. But with what he was doing at Wake, he’s as good a passer as we’ve played against. Balls that were incomplete were because we had to fight them out.”

The 2022 season was ugly for Oklahoma, but it’s hard to blame Gabriel. In six games vs. top-40 defenses (by defensive efficiency), he accounted for 16 touchdowns, just two turnovers, averaged 8.4 yards-per-pass and posted a Total QBR of 78.5.
Of Tulane’s 14 games last season, 12 were within one score at some point in the fourth quarter. That’s a lot of pressure on a QB, and Pratt delivered, completing 71.4% of his throws, accounting for nine touchdowns and just one turnover and averaging 13.7 yards-per-pass in close-and-late situations. Oh, and the Green Wave were 10-2 in those games.
McCall missed nearly 30% of Coastal Carolina’s snaps last season. When he was off the field, the Chanticleers averaged just 4.6 yards-per-play and just 36% of plays were successful. When he was in the game, they averaged 6.6 and their successful play rate increased to 49%. It’s impossible to say what Tim Beck’s scheme will mean for McCall in 2023, but one thing is certain — he wasn’t just a byproduct of what Jamey Chadwell did.
From Week 10 on, Leonard accounted for 19 touchdowns, two turnovers and averaged better than 280 yards of offense per game. Duke went 5-1 in that span.

TIER 4b: Very good inconsistently (eight players, six jobs)

Arizona‘s Jayden de Laura
Ole Miss‘ Jaxson Dart (or Spencer Sanders or Walker Howard)
Maryland‘s Taulia Tagovailoa
Mississippi State‘s Will Rogers
South Carolina‘s Spencer Rattler
Western Kentucky‘s Austin Reed

During one three-game stretch for de Laura midseason, he threw for six touchdowns and 484 yards against Colorado, was held to just 5.7 yards-per-pass in a 49-22 loss to Oregon, then threw for 400 yards and four touchdowns vs. Washington.

A few weeks later, he followed a game in which he averaged better than 11 yards a throw vs. a ranked UCLA team by tossing four picks vs. Washington State.

He’s one of two FBS quarterbacks last year to have four games of three or more TD passes and three games of three or more interceptions.

His 17 turnovers are the most among returning QBs.

His 66 plays of 20 yards or more are the fourth-most among returning QBs.

Allow us to paraphrase a great quote from “Rounders”: There’s no other QB in which fortunes can change so much from play to play, and a brilliant defensive coordinator can get a strong call, crack, go on tilt and lose his mind. Some people, pros even, won’t watch de Laura. They can’t handle the swings.

Rattler in eight games before Nov. 1: 61% completions, 5 TDs, 7 interceptions, 6.74 yards-per-pass and a 45.1 Total QBR

Rattler in five games after Nov. 1: 69% completions, 13 TDs, 2 picks, 7.98 yards-per-pass and a 76.5 Total QBR

Western Kentucky waved goodbye to playcaller Zach Kittley and QB Bailey Zappe but hoped to catch lightning in a bottle again with another FCS transfer in 2022, inserting Reed to run the offense. The bad news, he ended up with 22 fewer touchdown passes than Zappe. The good news, he still threw 40 of them, only trailing Williams and Stroud among FBS quarterbacks.
The only three QBs returning in 2023 who have multiple seasons of 65% completions, 30 touchdowns and 10 or fewer turnovers: Harris, McCall and Rogers.
The saying goes that if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. But Ole Miss has three, which means they actually have … well, math was never our strong suit. Howard is an intriguing prospect, but he’s far less experienced than Dart or Sanders. Sanders has a ton of snaps under his belt, but he’s spent the bulk of his career either being the worst good QB in the Power 5 or the best bad one. Dart remains the likely option for Week 1, and he was solid last season, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and rushing for 614. But 13 turnovers were a concern, and in Ole Miss’s five losses last season, he had just six TDs and five interceptions.
A Big Ten coach on Tagovailoa: “The question with him is pocket presence, but there are some games where he makes some throws that really grab your attention. Then there’s other games that sort of encompass Maryland in general, where they can look really good and then look really pedestrian in back-to-back weeks.”

TIER 5a: High ceiling, low floor (16 players, nine jobs)

Colorado‘s Shedeur Sanders
Florida‘s Graham Mertz (or Jack Miller III)
Texas A&M‘s Conner Weigman (or Max Johnson)
TCU‘s Chandler Morris or Chance Nolan
Texas‘ Quinn Ewers
UCLA‘s Dante Moore, Collin Schlee or Ethan Garbers
Wake Forest‘s Mitch Griffis
Washington State‘s Cameron Ward
Wisconsin‘s Tanner Mordecai (or Nick Evers or Braedyn Locke).

If you watched Ewers play Alabama and Oklahoma last season, you’re probably sold on him as a prospect, but there are some huge red flags beyond the “Skynyrd roadie” hairstyle. On 48 throws of 20-plus yards last year, Ewers completed just 12 — none for TDs — and three were picks.

He was off target on 22.7% of his throws beyond the line of scrimmage, second-worst among QBR-qualified FBS passers.

And against top-40 defenses (by defensive efficiency), his numbers were downright ugly: 51% completions, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, 6.3 yards-per-attempt and a 59.7 Total QBR.

But now the mullet is gone, and he has a look worthy of a second interview at T. Rowe Price. Perhaps that’s just the step forward Ewers needed to meet his potential.

A full accounting of every high school and transfer QB recruited by Jimbo Fisher from 2013 through 2022:

JJ Cosentino: no starts and retired early
Everett Golson: 8 starts and vanished
Deondre Francois: 25 starts and dismissed
De’Andre Johnson: no starts and dismissed
Malik Henry: no starts and dismissed
Bailey Hockman: no starts and transferred
James Blackman: 25 starts and transferred
James Foster: no starts and transferred
Zach Calzada: 10 starts and transferred
Haynes King: 7 starts and transferred
Eli Stowers: no starts and transferred
Zach Daniel: no starts
Max Johnson: 3 starts and hanging in
Conner Weigman: the chosen one sent to save Aggie Nation

Weigman has obvious talent (8 TDs, no picks in four late-season starts), but that’s a grim list that covers a decade of recruiting. Now A&M’s offense is being co-managed by Fisher and Bobby Petrino, which will either result in Fisher’s play sheet again looking like a Cheesecake Factory menu and Petrino interviewing for Fisher’s job at halftime or, perhaps, some strange gumbo of incompatible ingredients that somehow comes out tasting divine.

Since 2017, Wake Forest ranks in the top 25 nationally in Total QBR (14th), passing yards (16th), yards per pass (23rd) and passing touchdowns (sixth). The Deacons’ past three QBs — John Wolford, Jamie Newman and Hartman — have all been tremendous success stories. So things shouldn’t be much different for Griffis. Oh, and he has four receivers returning in 2023 who had at least 500 receiving yards last season.
In his first five games against Power 5 opponents last year, Ward posted a 57.2 Total QBR with a 9 TD-to-7 INT ratio and 62% completions. In the next five, he improved on all those numbers — 66.3 Total QBR, 7 TDs and no picks, and 66% completions. The problem? His yards-per-attempt dipped from 7.1 to 6.0, and he attempted seven fewer passes per game. Dialing back on what was asked of Ward helped his overall production, but is it a recipe for bigger success in 2023, or a ceiling on what he can do?
Six quarterbacks return for 2023 after posting 30 passing touchdowns, 10 or fewer interceptions, 3,000 passing yards and 65% completions: Williams, Maye, Penix, Harris, Rogers and … Mordecai. Will the success Mordecai had at SMU translate to the Big Ten? Or, perhaps the better question: Will Phil Longo’s Air Raid translate to a league that is still skeptical of the forward pass? As a coordinator who coached against Longo said, he’s always had some big-time receivers to work with (A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, Josh Downs) and that might be tougher to find at Wisconsin.
Against top-40 defenses last season (by defensive efficiency), Mertz completed 54% of his throws, averaged 6 yards-per-pass, threw five TDs to seven picks and had a 49.1 Total QBR. Wisconsin finished 0-5 in those games.

In “Bart Star,” a season nine episode of “The Simpsons,” Homer is tasked with coaching the town’s peewee football team. He immediately cuts 80% of his roster and installs his son as the quarterback. Interestingly, that is also the plot of this season at Colorado. We suspect Sanders will have a better season than Bart did, but sometimes life in the Pac-12 is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.

TIER 5b: Low ceiling, high floor (six players)

Arizona State‘s Drew Pyne
Iowa‘s Cade McNamara
Oregon State‘s DJ Uiagalelei
Syracuse‘s Garrett Shrader
Texas Tech‘s Tyler Shough
UCF‘s John Rhys Plumlee

There’s a thin line between bravery and masochism, and we’re eager to learn which side McNamara is on after his transfer to Iowa.

Two years ago, he was busy leading Michigan to the College Football Playoff.

Now, his sights are squarely set on averaging 25 points per game.

Oh, sure, Iowa has had single-digit touchdown passes in two of the past three seasons. And yes, the Hawkeyes’ leading pass catcher from a year ago is gone. And we’re aware that Iowa hasn’t had a starting QB complete 60% of his throws since 2015.

But maybe things will be different now.

Not the offensive coordinator or the scheme or the jokes. Those will still be the same. But something.

Uiagalelei placed a hefty chunk of the blame for his prior struggles on Clemson’s staff and scheme, but after a rousing win over Florida State on Oct. 15, things were looking good for Uiagalelei and the Tigers. He completed 64% of his throws, tossed 17 touchdowns to just two picks and was averaging 7.8 yards-per-pass.

In the five games after that, he completed 59% of his throws, averaged just 5.5 yards-per-pass, threw five picks with just five TDs and was benched three times.

Same offense. Same coaching staff. Same talent around him.

A change of scenery was likely overdue, but it’s hard to make the case that Uiagalelei suffered exclusively at the hands of an inept Clemson support system.
A full 25% of Plumlee’s offensive production last year came on the ground. Among returning QBs, only Diego Pavia, Aveon Smith, Robby Ashford and Mike Wright had a higher share from rushing plays.

TIER 6: A second act after ACC struggles (five players)

Kentucky‘s Devin Leary
Miami‘s Tyler Van Dyke
Nebraska‘s Jeff Sims
NC State‘s Brennan Armstrong
Pitt‘s Phil Jurkovec

There were 72 QBR-qualified FBS quarterbacks in 2022 who’d been regular starters in a prior season. Of that group, six saw a decline in Total QBR of at least 18 points. Four of them were in the ACC — Van Dyke, Armstrong, Leary and Jurkovec. They were followed, closely enough, by Sims, who saw a nearly nine-point decline and spent the last month of the season injured.

Armstrong, Leary, Jurkovec and Sims all transferred.

Van Dyke will be surrounded by a new set of offensive coaches at Miami.

So, will fresh starts revive the careers of these once promising prospects?

Mario Cristobal axed OC Josh Gattis in January, turning to former Houston OC Shannon Dawson to take over the Miami offense. It certainly seems like a far better fit for Van Dyke, given what Dawson did with Clayton Tune (and, before that, former Van Dyke teammate D’Eriq King) during his time with the Cougars.

“Now it’s another year and another change,” one ACC coach said. “Is it the coordinator or just a lack of cohesiveness and you just messed him up again? I don’t know, but Van Dyke, he’s a good football player.”

Armstrong’s decline followed a change at coordinator too, but this season he’s reuniting with Robert Anae, the playcaller who engineered his exceptional 2021 campaign at Virginia. Armstrong’s move to NC State feels like a return to what works, but the Wolfpack lack the cast of exceptional receivers that helped make Armstrong a star with the Cavaliers.
Of every Power 5 quarterback who started at least six games vs. Power 5 opponents in 2022, none finished with a worse Total QBR than Jurkovec. Of course, Jurkovec was playing behind what may have been the worst offensive line in the country. BC ranked 129th in pressure rate allowed and 131st in rushes stopped for a loss or no gain. Jurkovec was pressured on 44.4% of his dropbacks vs. Power Five opponents — 23% more than any other Power 5 QB. There’s nowhere to go but up at Pitt.
Leary finished 2021 with 35 touchdown passes and just five picks, but battled inconsistency and, ultimately, injury in 2022. He transferred to Kentucky and hopes to follow in the footsteps of Will Levis, who went from leading the Wildcats’ offense to the 33rd overall pick in the NFL draft. Oh, one small problem though: Of those six QBs who saw an 18-plus point decline in Total QBR year over year? Levis was one of them.
Then there’s Sims, who’s always flashed the potential to become a star but languished behind a woeful offensive line at Georgia Tech and tended to follow a brilliant offensive drive with three or four utterly confounding ones. Of the 70 players with at least 750 dropbacks over the past three seasons, only five have a worse Total QBR than Sims, all from outside the Power 5, and only Iowa’s Spencer Petras has completed a lower percentage of his throws than Sims (57.5%) among Power 5 players in that span. And yet, for Nebraska fans, there’s still those flashes of magic that offer hope.

“I think Matt Rhule will do a good job with him,” said one ACC coach who’s faced Sims at Georgia Tech. “We dropped [a few] interceptions, but he can run. We couldn’t tackle him.”

TIER 7: A fresh start offers cause for optimism (10 players, six jobs)

Auburn‘s Payton Thorne or Robby Ashford
Georgia Tech‘s Haynes King, Zach Pyron or Zach Gibson
Houston‘s Donovan Smith or Lucas Coley
Louisville‘s Jack Plummer
Illinois‘ Luke Altmyer
Purdue‘s Hudson Card

King and Card are like the “Armageddon” and “Deep Impact” of Power 5 quarterbacks. They came out at the same time. They had more or less the same storyline of a QB trying to manage in a terrible situation at a Texas school. And honestly, nobody really enjoyed either experience. But hey, we like the idea of both of them finding new life on DVD and streaming. Or, you know, at Purdue and Georgia Tech.
One Big Ten defensive coach on Thorne: “It’s a whole different offense, and I don’t know what they have around him for what they’re going to be doing, but I think he’s going to check a lot of boxes for what you’d want of a transfer in Year 1 at a program.”
Smith was just 5-of-25 for 164 yards with no touchdowns and three picks on throws of 20 yards or more last year, but he can run. Dana Holgorsen might be the guy to maximize his passing ability, too, but he’s really had just one true dual-threat QB in his career (Skyler Howard), though Clayton Tune did lead Houston in rushing last year with 546 yards.

Jack Plummer explains his decision

Jack Plumber explains his decision to come to Louisville and play for his former coach, Jeff Brohm.

TIER 8: Top of the Group of 5, even if that term makes Mike Aresco roll his eyes (12 players, 11 jobs)

Boise State‘s Taylen Green
Georgia State‘s Darren Grainger
Ohio‘s Kurtis Rourke
Memphis‘ Seth Henigan
Louisiana Tech‘s Hank Bachmeier
New Mexico State‘s Diego Pavia
San Diego State‘s Jalen Mayden
San Jose State‘s Chevan Cordeiro
South Alabama‘s Carter Bradley
SMU‘s Preston Stone or Alex Padilla
Toledo‘s Dequan Finn.

Only two quarterbacks outside the Power 5 return after posting a Total QBR of 70 or better last year: UTSA’s Frank Harris and Ohio’s Rourke (73.8), who along with Hendon Hooker was the only QB last year to throw for 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns with less than five interceptions.
Pavia missed New Mexico State’s Week 7 game with an injury, but when he returned he was a different QB, accounting for 13 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 10.2 yards-per-attempt and the second-best Total QBR in FBS (90.2).
Henigan and Grainger are among just seven returning QBs who accounted for at least one touchdown in every game last season. The others: Williams, Reed, Leonard, Penix and Travis.
If San Diego State can keep the pocket clean, Mayden could become a star. When he didn’t face pressure last season, he completed 70% of his throws with 10 TDs, four picks and averaged 9.83 yards-per-pass. Of course, get Mayden outside the pocket, and he’s not bad either. He posted a 96.8 QBR outside the pocket last season, tops in FBS.
Finn averaged 3.7 more yards-per-attempt vs. zone coverage last season than he did man, but he saw man coverage from opposing defenses just 33% of the time.
Take away a brutal Mountain West title game against Fresno State, and the latter half of Green’s season would’ve been an indisputable breakout performance: Six games, 64% completions, more than 1,600 total yards, 17 touchdowns and no picks. Of course, all six of those defenses ranked 63rd or worse in expected points added per game and 71st or worse in opponent Total QBR. Fresno State, however, was a top-50 defense, and Green finished that game completing just 45% of his throws for 175 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
Five returning players tied for the most games with three or more passing touchdowns last year with 8: Williams, Maye, Hartman, Reed and … South Alabama’s Bradley.

TIER 9: A year of experience offers cause for hope (nine players, five jobs)

Baylor‘s Blake Shapen or Sawyer Robertson
Iowa State‘s Hunter Dekkers
Missouri‘s Brady Cook (or Jake Garcia or Sam Horn)
Tulsa‘s Braylon Braxton
Virginia Tech‘s Grant Wells (or Kyron Drones)

Aside from a game against FCS Abilene Christian, Cook struggled in the early going last season, but he came on nicely down the stretch. His final four games included nine total touchdowns, no picks and nearly 1,300 yards of total offense.
Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry thinks a better supporting cast will make a world of difference for Wells in Year 2 with the program.

“A lot of people wanted to point the finger at Grant, and there are things he needs to do better — things you have to do better at this level that he’s doing [this spring],” Pry said. “But also if you can’t run the ball, and you can’t get open, and you’re not able to protect him, that’s a problem.”

Braxton’s last five games in 2022: 1,101 yards of offense, 12 total touchdowns and no picks.
Iowa State lost six games by a touchdown or less last season. Dekkers had just 7 touchdowns and 7 INTs in those games.

TIER 10: Third — or fourth! — time is the charm (eight players, five jobs)

BYU‘s Kedon Slovis
Cincinnati‘s Emory Jones (or Evan Prater)
FAU‘s Casey Thompson (or Daniel Richardson)
Oklahoma State‘s Alan Bowman (or Gunnar Gundy or Garret Rangel)
Rice‘s JT Daniels

Daniels and Slovis were teammates at USC in 2019. Since then, they’ve combined to start for five more schools. Daniels got hurt in 2019, was replaced by Slovis, who played well, and Daniels ultimately transferred to Georgia, where he lost the starting QB job to Stetson Bennett. Slovis got hurt in 2021, was replaced by Jaxson Dart, and Slovis ultimately transferred to Pitt before transferring again to make room for the Panthers’ new addition, transfer Jurkovec. Dart too, found the door, transferring to Ole Miss, where he’s now battling two other transfers for the starting job. Dart was replaced by Williams, who transferred from Oklahoma and went on to win the Heisman. The point of all this is to say USC basically pulled off one of those scams where you start with a paper clip and keep trading up until you own a Ferrari.

Slovis on third and fourth down last season: 39-of-79 passing with three touchdowns, four picks, 10 sacks and a 13.3 QBR, the second-worst mark in FBS.
Jones fizzled at Florida and walked into an untenable situation at Arizona State, but he may have found a great fit at Cincinnati. First-year head coach Scott Satterfield had a guy with a similar skill set at Louisville in Malik Cunningham, and during Satterfield’s run with the Cardinals, they posted the 12th-best Total QBR in the country (76.9).

TIER 11: Incomplete grades (four players)

Boston College‘s Emmett Morehead
Cal‘s Sam Jackson
Michigan State‘s Noah Kim
Minnesota‘s Athan Kaliakmanis

Fun fact: Morehead is from California and is an avid surfer. Being beat up by waves while trying to maintain balance should be adequate prep for playing behind BC’s O-line (See Tier 6: Jurkovec, Phil).
One coach guessed Michigan State might regret the loss of Payton Thorne, who transferred to Auburn. Even if Thorne wasn’t a guarantee for the starting job with the Spartans, “I have a hard time believing Michigan State wanted to see him go,” a coach said. “How do you want to start all over in a critical year with a brand-new quarterback that has no game experience?”
Kaliakmanis had more than 20 attempts in just two games last season (vs. Penn State and Wisconsin), but he looked solid in both. The talent is there, and now he won’t have Tanner Morgan looking over his shoulder.
We can’t be the only ones planning to use a lot of “Snakes on a Plane” references while watching Cal games this year, can we?

TIER 12: The rest of the Power 5 QBs (17 players, seven jobs)

Indiana‘s Brendan Sorsby or Tayven Jackson
Northwestern‘s Ben Bryant, Brendan Sullivan, Ryan Hilinski or Jack Lausch
Rutgers‘ Gavin Wimsatt or Evan Simon
Stanford‘s Ari Patu, Ashton Daniels or Myles Jackson
Vanderbilt‘s AJ Swann or Ken Seals
Virginia‘s Tony Muskett or Jay Woolfolk
West Virginia‘s Garrett Greene or Nicco Marchiol

Swann had a nice four-game stretch early last season in which he completed 64% of his throws for nearly 800 yards with eight TDs and no interceptions. Then he played Georgia and, like so many others before him, his career instantly spiraled downward, throwing just two more TDs the rest of the year. By the way, the post-UGA game support group meets every Tuesday at 6 in Max Duggan’s basement.
From Week 4 on, Rutgers averaged less than 12 points per game, had 21 sacks, 12 picks and just 7 TD passes and posted a Total QBR of 24.1. Even Iowa thinks that’s awful.
Hilinski threw for 749 yards in his first two games of the season last year. We’re choosing to ignore everything that followed at Northwestern.

TIER 13: So you’re saying there’s a chance? (13 players, nine jobs)

Akron‘s DJ Irons
Buffalo‘s Cole Snyder
Colorado State‘s Clay Millen
East Carolina‘s Mason Garcia
James Madison‘s Jordan McCloud or Alonza Barnett III
Marshall‘s Cam Fancher
North Texas‘ Chandler Rogers (or Jace Ruder or Stone Earle)
Old Dominion‘s Grant Wilson or Jack Shields
Southern Miss‘ Zach Wilcke

Irons has 1,045 rushing yards in just 13 starts over the past two seasons, when not counting sacks. Unfortunately for him, sacks are a thing, and Akron has given up 119 of them over the past two years, 26 more than any other FBS team — enough to slice a full 435 yards off Irons’ rushing total.
Millen was among the country’s top deep-ball throwers last year, completing 20 of 32 throws of 20+ yards downfield, for 757 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs and an FBS best 99.8 raw QBR.
Wilcke’s stat line wasn’t great — 8 TDs, 9 picks — but Southern Miss was 5-2 when he took the lion’s share of the snaps. When he didn’t, the Eagles were 2-4.
In his first season at the FBS level last year, Todd Centeio accounted for more than 3,000 yards, had 32 touchdowns and just five picks and averaged 9.5 yards per pass. If his replacement can come anywhere close to those numbers, JMU could make some real noise again in the Sun Belt.

TIER 14: Never question the system: Group of 5 edition (11 players, five jobs)

Air Force‘s Jensen Jones, Zac Larrier or Ben Brittain
Appalachian State‘s Joey Aguilar or Ryan Burger
Georgia Southern‘s Davis Brin or Beau Allen
Liberty‘s Johnathan Bennett, Kaidon Salter or Trey Lowe
Utah State‘s Cooper Legas

Fun fact: In two years with Blake Anderson as his head coach at Arkansas State, Layne Hatcher threw 46 touchdowns and 12 picks, averaging close to 10 yards per pass. In the two years since Anderson left for Utah State, he’s thrown 38 touchdowns with 23 picks, averaged just 6.5 yards per pass … and transferred twice.
Kyle Vantrease led the country in turnovers last year with 19, but he also threw for more than 4,200 yards. In Year 1 with Clay Helton running a wide-open offense, Georgia Southern rode a bit of a roller-coaster, but the job should be in good hands in 2023 with two extremely talented passers battling for QB1.

Since moving to FBS in 2014, every starting QB at App State has thrown for at least 2,000 yards, and in every year but two QBs tossed 20 touchdowns.

TIER 15: Intriguing transfers in the Group of Five (13 players, five jobs)

Bowling Green‘s Connor Bazelak or Camden Orth
Fresno State‘s Mikey Keene or Logan Fife
Sam Houston State‘s Grant Gunnell or Keegan Shoemaker
Texas State‘s Malik Hornsby, T.J. Finley, Ty Evans or CJ Rogers
Western Michigan‘s Hayden Wolff, Treyson Bourguet or Jack Salopek

Wolff threw for 2,900 yards with 18 TD passes and just six picks, averaging 7 yards per attempt last year. The only other returning QBs outside the Power 5 to do that: Pratt, Rourke and Cordeiro.
Bazelak is on his third team in as many years after a rough season at Indiana last year in which he averaged just 5.4 yards-per-pass and tossed 10 picks. But the last guy to transfer after starting at Indiana threw for 4,600 yards last year … so there’s hope.
Hornsby ran for 114 yards against Mississippi State last year. Passing, on the other hand, was not really a great part of his game. In three years at Arkansas, he completed just 18 of 39 throws.
Fife threw just 36 incompletions last season — completing 70% of his 120 attempts. Unfortunately for Fresno State, a full one-sixth of them went for INTs.

TIER 16: Serviceable and reliable (seven players, four jobs)

Miami, Ohio‘s Brett Gabbert or Aveon Smith
UConn‘s Zion Turner or Ta’Quan Roberson
UTEP‘s Gavin Hardison
Wyoming‘s Andrew Peasley or Carson May

Since Josh Allen headed to the NFL following the 2017 season, Wyoming has had just 46 passing touchdowns. That’s nine fewer than UConn, which skipped the 2020 season entirely. Only Army, Navy and Air Force have less during that time.
Smith was one of just eight qualified QBs who averaged at least one yard-per-dropback better vs. man than zone defense last season.
Hardison’s 52.1% completions are the seventh-lowest by any FBS QB with at least 300 attempts in the playoff era, and just one-tenth of a percentage point away from tying for the lowest of the past five years.
UConn made a bowl last year. It still seems unbelievable. Turner threw more INTs than touchdowns in the process, but you get UConn to a bowl and we’re not putting you in the bottom tier.

TIER 17: Wait, he’s still playing? (11 players, five jobs)

Arkansas State‘s J.T. Shrout, Jaylen Raynor and Jaxon Dailey
Ball State‘s Layne Hatcher
Hawai’i‘s Joey Yellen or Brayden Schager
Troy‘s Gunnar Watson and Jarret Doege
South Florida‘s Gerry Bohanon, Byrum Brown or Bryce Archie

At Colorado last year, Shrout completed 44.3% of his throws — the lowest percentage by any Power 5 QB with 200 attempts in the playoff era. But now he’s with Butch Jones, who recruited him to Tennessee before being fired. A reunion of life champions can’t go wrong, can it?
Doege started his career in 2017 with Bowling Green, throwing 27 TDs in 2018, transferring to West Virginia in 2019, earned the starting job in 2020, lost it in 2021, transferred to Troy in 2022 and started just two games there. On the upside, one more transfer on his portal punch card and he earns a free sub at any participating Jersey Mike’s location.

TIER 18: We’re running out of steam here. Please send help. (15 players, seven jobs)

Army‘s Bryson Daily and Dewayne Coleman
Central Michigan‘s Jase Bauer, Bert Emanuel Jr., or Tyler Pape
Kent State‘s Jaren Lewis, Devin Kargman, Tommy Ulatowski or Chandler Galban
Louisiana‘s Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields
Nevada‘s Shane Illingworth or Brendon Lewis
Northern Illinois‘s Ethan Hampton
Temple‘s E.J. Warner

Kent State has the fourth-best Total QBR among non-Power 5 schools over the past three seasons, but head coach Sean Lewis (Colorado) and last year’s starting QB Collin Schlee (UCLA) both bolted for the Pac-12.
Bauer saw extended action just twice last year, both losses. Against Bowling Green, he was solid (72% completions). Against Eastern Michigan, he was a disaster (7-of-15 with three interceptions).
The Nevada QB situation was a game of musical chairs last season, but when Illingworth got on the field, he showed a few flashes of the potential that initially landed him at Oklahoma State.

TIER 19: A glimmer of hope (12 players, six jobs)

Eastern Michigan‘s Austin Smith
Jacksonville State‘s Zion Webb or Te’Sean Smoot
Middle Tennessee‘s Nick Vattiato
Navy‘s Tedros Gleaton, Tai Lavatai, Xavier Arline, or Blake Horvath
New Mexico‘s Dylan Hopkins (or DC Tabscott)
UAB‘s Jacob Zeno (or Landry Lyddy)

In a year in which Deion Sanders purged his roster at Colorado and Jimbo Fisher is attempting to hand over playcalling to Bobby Petrino, it’s easy to lose focus on the fact that Trent Dilfer is now an FBS head coach, too. The 2023 season really promises to be a ridiculous one. Dilfer might actually have something in Zeno, who played off and on last season but had a terrific game against UTSA, throwing for 332 yards. Plenty more Dilfer Dimes to come, we assume.
You can’t convince us Blake Horvath, DC Tabscott and Jacob Zeno aren’t all character names from unproduced Will Ferrell movies.

TIER 20: Rounding out the FBS (10 players, five jobs)

Charlotte‘s Jalon Jones
FIU‘s Grayson James, Haden Carlson or Keyone Jenkins
UL-Monroe‘s Jiya Wright or Hunter Herring
UMass‘s Brady Olson
UNLV ‘s Doug Brumfield or Harrison Bailey

This article was originally published by Espn.com. Read the original article here.