Josh Taylor, the former undisputed junior welterweight champion who relinquished three of his four belts and now only holds the WBO strap, is back in the ring to face the young and bold Teofimo Lopez Jr., himself a former lightweight unified three-belt titlist.
The fight Saturday at The Theater at Madison Square Garden will be Lopez’s third fight at 140 pounds. He has been persistent in challenging Taylor, who many consider the No. 1 140-pounder in the world. (ESPN ranks him No. 2).
Both are incredibly talented and feed off the words “You can’t.” Lopez, of Brooklyn, New York, has captured the media’s attention in and out of the ring with an outgoing personality that caught fire with showcase fights after the Heisman presentation a few years ago. Taylor, of Scotland, is the betting favorite (-175 according to Caesars Sportsbook) because of his domination in the division and his aggressive fighting style, fearlessness and competitive nature.
Taylor is bigger in size and height. He’s also a true junior welterweight, is undefeated and has a deep résumé full of bona fide contenders and champions. He has a win over the reigning WBC champion in the division, Regis Prograis, a hard-hitting boxer-puncher with exceptional talent and skills.
The matchup
Both Taylor and Lopez bring aggressive styles into the ring. Taylor combines his aggression with good technical skills and a double-fisted body attack from the southpaw stance. Lopez’s pressure comes behind solid technical ability infused with second-to-none athleticism and explosive punching power. Their styles will make for entertaining back-and-forth exchanges and should create a suspenseful energy as both carry KO punching power in either hand.
Taylor has been sidelined of late with multiple injuries. His last fight was against Jack Catterall well over a year ago. It was a dull performance, which included Taylor getting up off the canvas in Round 8 after being floored by a Catterall left hand.
Lopez has been actively fighting (this is his third fight in the last 10 months), but he’s also had his share of injuries and inactivity during his career. He, too, is also coming off a non-scintillating performance against top contender Sandor Martin back in December. Lopez was knocked down for the first time in his career against Martin — a quick check right hook in the second round.
What to expect
Boxing is the ultimate physical sport, but fighters must also be just as mentally ready and to be able to handle the emotional demands of the sport, including dealing with wins, losses, injuries and the media. Both Taylor and Teo have shown vulnerability on that front. Taylor thought his talent alone could be enough to win at the highest level — and he almost paid for it against Catterall. Lopez, on the other hand, in my opinion, has never taken accountability for his career and actions, pointing the finger at everyone but himself. If Taylor is anything close to what he was mentally and physically against Prograis, then I suspect him to be an overwhelming favorite. And if Lopez is totally locked in, I would imagine him being a problem for Taylor.
Success in boxing is not just about winning or making money. Many fighters are revered and remembered for their skills, determination, will and sportsmanship, regardless of their win-loss record or financial earnings. Some of the most memorable moments in boxing history have resulted from underdogs overcoming insurmountable odds and achieving greatness.
There is a lot to be said about Lopez from this aspect, as he defied the odds two and a half years ago. The 4-1 underdog shocked the world by beating the legendary Vasiliy Lomachenko, who many regarded as the number one fighter P4P at the time — defeating him by unanimous decision.
Lopez is among the most explosive and naturally athletic fighters today. What makes him a violent force in the ring is his explosiveness, light-footed coordination, hand speed, timing, punching power in both hands and deliberate unconventional movements and techniques.
Lopez’s pre-fight game plans and strategy set the table for him offensively. Still, innovation and ring intelligence flare his boxing style. His calm and controlled demeanor, but energetic presence, allows him to slow things down and speed things up instantly. However, the nucleus of Lopez’s success depends solely on his athleticism and ring smarts to help place his desired power punches accurately and efficiently. The third but most crucial power plant for Lopez is his mental focus.
Lopez operates on emotions. The calmer and better his mental state is, the better he will be, and his performance is usually electrifying. The bigger the challenge, the more he excels and proves naysayers and experts wrong.
Strengths and weaknesses
Lopez’s move to 140 pounds hasn’t been as pleasant as his dominance at 135 pounds and neither has his punching power. Guys aren’t getting blown away by his single-handed punches, as they did at lightweight.
When announced, I said this matchup is too soon for Lopez. I haven’t changed that mindset as I studied film on both. Lopez is exceptionally talented, but lacks the key elements to succeed in this loaded division. Fighters are just as athletic as he is. Many are broader, taller and believed to be stronger. Some are technically and just fundamentally better. Lopez is explosive and reactive offensively, but his lack of fundamentals was on display against Martin. His deficient jab made it hard to recognize the distance to strike effectively. Martin’s brilliant footwork played a significant role in his success. Taylor has solid footwork behind good technical skills. He offers an eclectic array of punches with an agile base and balance to offset Lopez’s abrupt attacks.
Lopez seemed to lack lead-foot dominance in the open stance (Lopez fights from the orthodox stance while Taylor is a southpaw), positioning his lead foot most of the time on the inside and getting countered with straight lefts. He often lunged at mid-range, exposing his undisciplined left guard, dropping it every time he would commit with his right hand. When under pressure, he usually finds himself against the ropes, but to his credit, he defends well with smooth invasive head movement. However, that will not serve him well against a volume puncher like Taylor, who isn’t afraid to empty his clip at a moving target.
Taylor’s ring intellect and technical ability can contribute to excellent footwork, which can help create openings off his back foot — making Lopez pay for any mistake. The champ can and will provide different looks upfront and various tempos while deceptively playing with his distance, probing, baiting, and initiating offense behind sound, committed movements. Taylor’s versatility, mental toughness and experience are all too wrong for Lopez.
For Lopez to have a chance of defeating Taylor, he must be aggressive early and take advantage of Taylor’s inactivity, not allowing him to settle his feet and keeping him uncomfortable. Jump on him immediately and test his chin early and often as possible.
Taylor, too, ignores the lead foot’s outside position, occasionally placing it inside to set up his right hook. He also lunges on occasions to force offense that isn’t there. Although Taylor is tall and may have the reach advantage in most cases, his jab usage is subpar. Taylor, just like Lopez, holds his guard (hands) low, hovering around his chest, leaving openings and exposure for counters. If Lopez can anticipate and recognize Taylor’s repetitive positioning and attack patterns, he could time him with both right hands and left hooks, as he tries to attack. Both fighters seem to have similar weaknesses, but just like Lopez’s gift to explode with speed and power, Taylor’s ability to fight on the inside, followed by his physicality, is his advantage over Lopez and very well may be the difference.
Who wins? Taylor by decision or late stoppage.