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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
If you’ve talked to a coach or a fan or a writer or an analyst or anyone else about use of the transfer portal in college football, you’ve probably either said it or heard it: “It’s like free agency!” Indeed, player movement has increased significantly, so there’s an element of truth to the thought, if exaggerated. But credit Colorado‘s Deion Sanders for changing the game a bit. It’s not like free agency for Coach Prime and his Buffaloes in 2023 — it’s like an expansion draft.
After Sanders’ first spring practice was over in Boulder, 47 players entered the transfer portal, joining the many former Buffaloes who were already there. Some left of their own volition, and others were told to go. The portal and the (temporary, for now) elimination of signing limits have allowed new coaches to flip large portions of their inherited rosters in much quicker fashion than was previously possible. But Sanders has attempted to flip nearly the entire dang thing.
We don’t really know how this will all work out, but there can be no doubting two things:
1. Sanders has upgraded the amount of higher-end talent on his roster. By my count, there were two former blue-chip recruits on Colorado’s roster last year. Including incoming freshmen, there are now something in the neighborhood of 15 or 16, including five — five-star sophomore corner Travis Hunter (Jackson State), junior corner Omarion Cooper (Florida State), junior nickelback Myles Slusher (Arkansas), junior safety Travis Jay (Florida State) and five-star freshman corner Cormani McClain — in a potentially dynamite secondary.
2. Colorado is almost guaranteed to improve, both because of the talent upgrade and the fact that the team almost literally couldn’t be worse. The Buffaloes went 1-11 last season and ranked a dreadful 124th in SP+. In the past 15 years, a power-conference team has never ranked worse. In terms of SP+ percentile ratings, the only CU team that has graded out lower was the 1962 edition, which at one point lost to six straight Big 8 opponents by a combined 278-49.
That doesn’t mean that every player on the team was terrible and needed to be replaced — a lot of CU’s incoming transfers don’t appear to be any better or more successful than some of the players who left, and quite a few of the outgoing transfers landed at schools that have been a lot better than Colorado of late. But while this overhaul feels like overkill, it will generate improvement. There’s almost no choice.
Personally, I’m not a fan of this grand experiment, if primarily for the scope of the precedent it sets. After a lengthy fight, college athletes have begun to actually earn what’s theirs in terms of both money and control over their playing careers. The idea that a coach can come in and boot nearly everyone on the roster flips the balance of power too far in the other direction. Colorado technically followed protocol by allowing players who have been cut to continue on scholarship at CU, but a coach never has to worry about too many players selecting that option since they wouldn’t be allowed to play football anymore.
Nearly every coach in the country ends up asking a few players to transfer to make the scholarship math work, but Sanders’ moves had nothing to do with scholarship math and everything to do with exerting total control over a roster. I wrote in March that I was a fan of getting rid of the annual 25-man limit on scholarships a school can give out — it feels like a grave necessity in the portal era — but this makes me think there should still be some sort of limit, even if it’s a huge one (40? 50?).
My personal opinions don’t really matter, though. This is happening, and aside from “They can’t get worse,” it’s been pretty difficult to get a grasp on how Colorado might fare on the field in Sanders’ first season. Hell, it’s been difficult to even envision what a two-deep might look like. But with portal activity slowing down, let’s take a shot.
Below, we’re going to walk through a potential position-by-position depth chart for Sanders’ Buffaloes in 2023. It’s a loose estimate based almost entirely on known production and/or recruiting rankings. Call it a best-case scenario two-deep of sorts — if everyone lives up to potential, this could be a version of Colorado’s best lineup. How much of an upgrade are we talking about here, and how much of Sanders’ moves were more of the “trading like for like” variety?
Offense
Before totally flipping the roster, one of the first moves Sanders made was hiring Kent State head coach Sean Lewis as his offensive coordinator. Lewis spent the past few years crafting his own unique version of a tempo-and-spread offense.
Lewis’ Golden Flashes indeed moved with extreme tempo last year but ran the ball a ton. Leading rusher Marquez Cooper had more rush attempts (285) than quarterback Collin Schlee had passes (266). Outside receivers caught 56% of Schlee’s passes (national average: 36%), and despite steady use of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), tight ends and running backs saw very few targets. After using quick, horizontal passes to decent effect in previous seasons, Kent State didn’t do an inordinate amount of that in 2022; instead, it leaned on the run for efficiency and threw more vertically than most teams, averaging 9.6 yards downfield per pass (27th in FBS).
We’ll see how much of this evolution was based on the personnel at hand and how much of it represented shifts in Lewis’ philosophy. His new quarterback has become pretty proficient at stretching the field horizontally.
Quarterback
Starter: Shedeur Sanders (Jr., Jackson State transfer) — 344-for-488 passing (70% completion rate) for 3,752 yards, 40 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (plus 174 net rushing yards and 6 touchdowns)
Backups: Ryan Staub (Fr.), Kasen Weisman (Fr.)
One of the first things Sanders told his new team after he was hired was that his son Shedeur would be the starting quarterback. As nepotistic as that claim might have been, it made some amount of sense, both because Shedeur Sanders posted outstanding stats last year and because none of the five Colorado quarterbacks who saw action did anything remotely impressive. Colorado ranked 128th in passing success rate and 127th in completion rate. Dire stuff.
A former four-star prospect, Sanders led Jackson State to back-to-back SWAC titles by throwing loads of mostly short passes. He averaged 11.9 yards per completion with a 66% completion rate as a redshirt freshman in 2021, then just 10.9 at 70% last year. He can scramble, but the ball tends to leave his hands pretty quickly.
Will that change in Lewis’ more vertical system? And will a complete lack of depth impact how much Sanders runs with the ball? All five of last year’s QBs are gone, and while that’s no great loss, the Buffs still need to be able to fill a depth chart.
Running back
Starter: Alton McCaskill (So., Houston transfer) — 189 carries for 961 yards and 16 touchdowns (plus 21 catches for 113 yards) in 2021
Backups: Kavosiey Smoke (Sr., Kentucky transfer), Anthony Hankerson (So., holdover), Dylan Edwards (Fr.)
If Lewis indeed wants to again craft a run-heavy attack, he could have the backs for it. McCaskill has solid size (6-foot-1, 210 pounds) and produced solid averages as a Houston freshman before missing 2022 with injury; he hits the hole fast and averaged 6.0 yards per carry outside the tackle box.
Smoke, meanwhile, was long part of a tandem of Kentucky backs, and while he has never replicated his freshman explosiveness — he averaged 6.1 yards per carry in 2019 and 5.0 since — he’s got elements of both strength and quickness. Shedeur Sanders could form a dynamic rushing backfield with either if Lewis feels comfortable rushing him 5-10 times per game, but again, injury concerns could limit that.
Wide receiver
Starter (WR): Xavier Weaver (Sr., South Florida transfer) — 53 catches for 718 yards and 6 touchdowns
Starter (WR): Jaylen Ellis (Sr., Baylor transfer) — three catches for 154 yards and a touchdown
Starter (Slot): Jimmy Horn Jr. (Jr., South Florida transfer) — 37 catches for 551 yards and 3 touchdowns (plus a rushing touchdown and kick return touchdown)
Backups: WR Adam Hopkins (Fr.), WR Javon Antonio (Sr., Northwestern State transfer), Slot Tar’Varish Dawson Jr. (So., Auburn transfer), WR Willie Gaines (Sr., Jackson State transfer)
At first glance, starting two-thirds of the receiving corps from a different 1-11 team — South Florida — seems a bit odd. But offense was in no way USF’s problem last year; the Bulls ranked 34th in offensive SP+, and Weaver and Horn were both worthy of upgrades to a power conference. Weaver averaged 3.0 yards per route while running a lot of the deeper routes Lewis has begun to favor. (As a general rule, anything over two yards per route is excellent. A three-yard average is elite.) Horn, meanwhile, averaged 2.3 yards per route, doing a lot of work in quick-passing situations, rushing nine times for 95 yards and showing potential in kick returns. He was one of Colorado’s spring stars.
Either or both of the former Bulls could thrive in the Pac-12; it would be very helpful if it were both. This is otherwise a very unproven unit. Ellis caught three long bombs and nothing else at Baylor last year, Antonio and Gaines both produced solid but unspectacular numbers at the FCS level and Dawson caught two balls in two years at Auburn. It’s fair to assume that star cornerback Travis Hunter will spend time at wideout, too — he caught 18 balls for four touchdowns at Jackson State last season, and he spent time at wide receiver in the spring game as well — but Colorado probably doesn’t want him recording too many snaps here.
Tight end
Starter: Erik Olsen (So., holdover) — five catches for 21 yards
Backups: Louis Passarello (So., holdover), Caleb Fauria (So., holdover)
Lewis appears to prefer tight ends who block; that’s good because these three guys had a combined 44 receiving yards last year. It’s probably telling that for all the transfers Sanders signed, he didn’t bother with a tight end. They probably aren’t going to be hugely influential in this offense.
Offensive line
Starter (LT): Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan (Jr., holdover) — 6-foot-10, 315 pounds, two sacks allowed and two penalties
Starter (LG): Jack Bailey (Sr., Kent State transfer) — 6-foot-3, 285 pounds, one sack allowed and seven penalties
Starter (C): Van Wells (So., holdover) — 6-foot-2, 290 pounds, six penalties
Starter (RG): Tyler Brown (Jr., Jackson State transfer) — 6-foot-3, 320 pounds, honorable mention FCS All-American
Starter (RT): Savion Washington (Sr., Kent State transfer) — 6-foot-8, 320 pounds, two sacks allowed and three penalties, second-team All-MAC per PFF
Backups: Landon Beebe (Sr., Missouri State transfer), Yousef Mugharbil (So., Florida transfer), Reggie Young (Sr., Liberty transfer), Isaiah Jatta (Jr., juco transfer), David Conner (RS Fr., Florida transfer), Jack Witty (So., juco transfer)
The positions above are educated guesses, obviously.
Christian-Lichtenhan and Wells could be the only two holdovers who start on offense. Of the newcomers, only Brown earned any particularly impressive honors last year, only Mugharbil was a four-star recruit and only Washington and Bailey bring FBS starting experience to the table. Both played for Lewis last season.
Having potential starting tackles who average 6-foot-9 and 318 pounds is certainly imposing, but this unit is an overall concern. As with quarterback and wide receiver, there is potentially problematic depth here, but there is also an upside question. The Pac-12 isn’t loaded with big-time defensive lines this year, but things will fall apart pretty quickly if the run game isn’t generating push and Sanders is having to run for his life a bit.
Defense
Defense was the primary strength of Sanders’ awesome Jackson State teams, but while Sanders brought defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman with him to Boulder, it was only as the “director of quality control — defense.” Instead, Sanders handed the defensive coordinator job to Charles Kelly, a longtime power-program veteran. He was Florida State’s defensive coordinator from 2014 to 2017 and Alabama’s associate defensive coordinator for the past four years.
All Kelly has really said about his defense is that it will be “multiple,” so instead of crafting a 4-3 or 3-4 mold below, we’ll just list potential starters at defensive tackle, on the edge and at inside linebacker.
Defensive line / edge rushers
Starter (Edge): Jordan Domineck (Sr., Arkansas transfer) — 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, 36 tackles, 9 TFLs (7.5 sacks), 4 run stops
Starter (Edge): Derrick McLendon II (Jr., Florida State transfer) — 6-foot-4, 240 pounds, 42 tackles, 5.5 TFLs (3.5 sacks), 4 run stops
Starter (Edge): Taijh Alston (Sr., West Virginia transfer) — 6-foot-4, 255 pounds, 19 tackles, 4 TFLs (2 sacks), 2 run stops
Starter (DT): Chazz Wallace (Jr., Old Dominion transfer) — 6-foot-2, 292 pounds, 25 tackles, 4.5 TFLs (0.5 sacks), 4 run stops
Starter (DT): Leonard Payne Jr. (Sr., Fresno State transfer) — 6-foot-3, 310 pounds, 15 tackles, 6.5 TFLs (2 sacks), 8 run stops
Starter (DT): Shane Cokes (Sr., Dartmouth transfer) — 6-foot-3, 275 pounds, 53 tackles, 8.5 TFLs (4.5 sacks)
Backups: Edge Deeve Harris (Jr., Old Dominion transfer), Edge Chance Main (Sr., holdover), Edge Arden Walker (So., Missouri transfer), Edge/DT Sav’ell Smalls (Jr., Washington transfer), DT Amari McNeill (So., Tennessee transfer), DT JJ Hawkins (So., Ole Miss transfer), DT Bishop Thomas (RS Fr., Florida State transfer), Edge Khairi Manns (Jr., Maine transfer), Edge Taje McCoy (Fr.)
Eighteen linemen and linebackers recorded at least 60 snaps for the Buffaloes last year, and only one of them, end Chance Main, is still on the roster. Meanwhile, by my count, Sanders has landed 18 front-seven transfer commitments.
Quantity should lead to quality on the edge. The stats for Domineck, McLendon, Alston and Harris were all pretty similar — Domineck’s disruption stood out a hair — but Kelly won’t be pinning all of his pass-rushing hopes on one guy. That’s helpful. But there’s still pretty iffy depth in the middle. Payne and Thomas are the only guys above listed at more than 295 pounds, and Smalls is the only former blue-chipper. His production to date has not backed up the hype.
Payne was extremely disruptive on a per-snap basis last year but averaged only 18 snaps per game. If he can’t handle a heavier load, I’m not sure where the snaps go in the middle.
Inside linebacker
Starter: LaVonta Bentley (Sr., Clemson transfer) — 20 tackles, 3.5 TFLs (1 sack), 2 run stops
Starter: Brendan Gant (Sr., Florida State transfer) — 24 tackles, 5 run stops
Backups: Demouy Kennedy (Sr., Alabama transfer), Marvin Ham II (Jr., holdover), Jeremiah Brown (So., Jackson State transfer)
This position, on the other hand, should have all the depth it needs. All other context aside, Bentley and Gant were exactly the type of transfers a rebuilding power-conference program should pursue — backups who did quite well when they were on the field but were stuck behind awesome starters. Gant was solid in coverage, and Bentley averaged a havoc play (TFL, pass defended, forced fumble) on 2.2% of snaps, a solid average for an ILB.
Kennedy never cracked the rotation at Alabama, but Kelly wanted him anyway (a decent sign), and the 220-pound Brown was JSU’s best blitzer last year. The Buffs should have what they need here.
Secondary
Starter (CB): Travis Hunter (So., Jackson State transfer) — 20 tackles, 2 INTs, 10 pass breakups
Starter (CB): Omarion Cooper (Jr., Florida State transfer) — 18 tackles, 1 INT, 99.9 QBR allowed
Starter (safety): Trevor Woods (Jr., holdover) — 60 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 INT, 3 pass breakups, 68.6 QBR allowed
Starter (safety): Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig (Jr., Jackson State transfer) — 63 tackles, 5.5 TFLs (1.5 sacks), 2 INTs, 1 pass breakup
Starter (nickel): Myles Slusher (Jr., Arkansas transfer) — 35 tackles, 4 TFLs (2 sacks), 1 pass breakup, 98.4 QBR allowed
Backups: CB Cormani McClain (Fr.), CB Kyndrich Breedlove (So., Ole Miss transfer), safety Shilo Sanders (Jr., Jackson State transfer), NB Jahquez Robinson (Sr., Alabama transfer), S Vito Tisdale (Sr., Kentucky transfer), S Travis Jay (Jr., Florida State transfer), S Rodrick Ward (Sr., Southern Utah transfer), CB Carter Stoutmire (Fr.)
The Buffs should really have what they need here. Hunter remains on the skinny side (6-foot-1, 165 pounds), but he was as good as anyone could have hoped at JSU last season and should immediately be one of the best corners in the Pac-12. And while Cooper was inconsistent, the odds of another solid starter emerging from the pool of Cooper, McClain and Breedlove are strong. Meanwhile, Slusher has strong disruption potential at nickel, Woods might have been Colorado’s best player last season and Silmon-Craig and Sanders were key reasons why opponents completed only 44% of passes against Jackson State last season.
Size, speed and the future
Outside of the offensive tackles, this is a small team. There’s no getting around that. The only proven receivers, Weaver and Horn, are listed at 178 and 175 pounds, respectively. Half the offensive line two-deep could be populated by guys listed at 290 or fewer pounds, and there are only a couple of 300-pounders in the potential D-line rotation. The most high-profile recruits on the team, Hunter and McClain, are both listed at 165, and one of the most proven pieces in the secondary, Silmon-Craig, is a 175-pound safety. Speed can trump size, and this could be a fast team. But it won’t surprise anyone if the Buffaloes still lose in the trenches, or if a rash of injuries derails a lot of the obvious promise the potential starting lineup possesses.
Then there’s the matter of the schedule. It’s impossible to properly project Colorado’s capabilities with a formula — the Buffaloes are currently projected to improve to 103rd in SP+ and 95th in FPI, and they will almost certainly overachieve that by quite a bit barring a massive injury run. But they play three projected top-20 teams (at TCU, at Oregon, USC at home) in Sanders’ first five games in charge, and they play six projected top-30 teams overall. Even if they pull an upset or two, they probably don’t have the depth to avoid some lulls against lesser competition. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Buffaloes current over/under win total at 3.5, and while I lean toward the over, it’s only a lean.
Of course, again, three or four wins would represent marked improvement for a team that went 1-11 last year and has finished over .500 once in the last 16 non-pandemic seasons. Besides, Sanders’ moves weren’t only about 2023. While such heavy use of the portal can result in a high level of average experience, Colorado will probably only start eight to 10 seniors overall. His 2024 team should return most of its more talented pieces and could begin to work in members of a 2023 non-transfer recruiting class that ranked 23rd overall.
This could work, in other words. It might not reap huge dividends in 2023, but that doesn’t mean it never will. And any success Sanders brings to the table will dramatically shift a transfer portal Overton window that had already shifted a good amount in the past couple of years.