It’s a big week for the NHL. Tonight, the annual awards show will anoint the winners of the Hart, Vezina, Calder and Norris trophies. Wednesday is Round 1 of the draft (7 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN+), while free agency begins on Saturday at noon ET.
To help make sense of it all, our reporters reached out to sources in front offices around the league for their takes on the draft, trades and the free agent class.
So ahead of this week’s flurry of action, Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski deliver the latest buzz around the NHL:
All about the Jackets
The Columbus Blue Jackets didn’t get their wish to draft first or second overall, but their No. 3 pick could shape the rest of the selections in the first round.
“So much hinges on what Columbus does at No. 3,” one NHL draft evaluator said. “We know they’ve spent time with all three kids — Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson and Will Smith.”
Fantilli is the hulking Michigan center who won the Hobey Baker Award as the NCAA’s top player. Carlsson is a tall center for Örebro of the Swedish Hockey League. Smith is an offensive dynamo for the U.S. Hockey National Team Development Program.
“GM Jarmo Kekalainen never just falls in line with what the consensus is,” the evaluator said. “If it’s between Smith and Carlsson, I see Smith as more of a goal scorer and Carlsson as more of a playmaker type. For what the Blue Jackets have already in someone like Patrik Laine or Johnny Gaudreau, I could see them going for the setup man.”
Of course, those plans might be thrown off if the Anaheim Ducks opt to not take Fantilli at No. 2 and perhaps select Russian winger Matvei Michkov instead.
“They’re loaded at center,” the evaluator said. “GM Pat Verbeek drafted a Russian last year in Pavel Mintyukov. Michkov is an elite scorer. It’s close enough between him and Fantilli.” — Wyshynski
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Adam Fantilli’s NHL draft profile
Check out some of the top plays from Michigan center Adam Fantilli.
To trade up, or not to trade up
One executive, when asked about Fantilli, said first and foremost no team needs him more than Columbus.
“The Jackets have to do whatever it takes” to jump into the draft’s No. 2 hole, he insisted.
Why? Because assuming Fantilli goes from college to the NHL, he can be the difference-making, potentially franchise-defining, topflight center Columbus so desperately requires to start erasing memories of a rough 2022-23 season.
Can the Blue Jackets make a deal with Anaheim to make it happen? Even if the Ducks don’t have nearly as much need down the middle as Columbus, Fantilli could be a generational talent. A rule of thumb at the draft is to take the best player available when it’s your turn on the clock, and that’s Fantilli at No. 2.
Columbus could cross its fingers and simply hope Anaheim passes on Fantilli — even knowing, as we all do, how much the Blue Jackets would benefit from adding him. Or the Blue Jackets could attempt to control their own fate with a move up on the draft board, likely at a high cost.
“I wouldn’t leave anything to chance when it comes to Fantilli,” the executive said. — Shilton
Another draft cycle, another example of how the NTDP keeps finding success
One assistant general manager opted to take a closer look at the portion of this year’s draft class that did not include Connor Bedard or Fantilli.
So what was it that stood out to them? It’s how this year’s National Development Team Program has a chance to be in the discussion for one of the stronger classes that the group has produced in recent years.
Prospects such as Ryan Leonard and Will Smith are among the five NTDP players who have a chance to be first-round picks. If all five go in the first round, it’ll be the second year in a row that the NTDP has had that number of players taken in the opening round, and it will be the fourth time since 2019, when it had nine players selected in the first.
But it’s not just the number of prospects who had the assistant GM talking. It’s how many of them have found ways to impact their teams within two years.
“You’ve seen it in recent years with Matty Beniers, Matt Boldy, Cole Caufield, Jack Hughes and Trevor Zegras,” the assistant GM said. “They’ve had some amazing offensive talent. You saw it again this year. … It’s not just the top end but it’s the depth of players. Especially in that forward group. It’s exciting to see how the U.S. has been developing players.” — Clark
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Will Smith’s NHL draft profile
Check out some of the best plays from USA Hockey National Team Development Program center Will Smith.
An ‘awful’ free agent class
I asked one NHL executive to characterize the 2023 NHL unrestricted free agent class.
“It’s terrible. It’s f—ing awful,” the executive said. “I guess maybe the forward group is a little better than the defensemen and the goalies. But it’s not a very strong group. I wouldn’t say there’s a position that’s all that unique this offseason.”
An NHL general manager was slightly more diplomatic: “I don’t think it’s overly deep. I don’t think there’s a lot of good names on the free agent market. Not a lot of depth for sure.”
One executive pointed at the market for right-handed defensemen this summer as an example. Matt Dumba of the Minnesota Wild had the highest average ice time, followed by Scott Mayfield (New York Islanders), John Klingberg (Wild), Justin Holl (Toronto Maple Leafs) and Kevin Shattenkirk (Ducks).
“There might be two guys there that aren’t third-pairing defensemen,” the executive said.
Making matters worse for the class of 2023 is how incredible the class of 2024 looks in comparison. While players like Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos and Sebastian Aho probably won’t make it to July 2024, there could be names like William Nylander, Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, Jonathan Marchessault, Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, Jordan Eberle, Tom Wilson, Viktor Arvidsson, Tyler Toffoli, Devon Toews, Brett Pesce and Brandon Montour available. Not to mention Anze Kopitar.
As for the class of 2023?
“Just stay out,” one NHL executive said. — Wyshynski
So what is realistic in free agency?
Two executives who spoke to ESPN explained how the best way to view this year’s free agent class is by having a certain perspective. An assistant GM said one of the potential challenges this year’s class presents is it could force teams to overpay for players at certain positions.
In other words, it’s possible that a top-nine forward could walk away with the sort of cap hit typically reserved for a top-six option. Having cost certainty is why the assistant GM believed that this year’s free agency market might actually be overshadowed by trades, though some teams might still take on some risk.
“You saw with Columbus and the trade they made with Ivan Provorov. That is what you are going to see teams do to try and make a change through trades, not free agency,” the assistant GM said. “You can find quality players but how much do you have to overpay for them?”
But like the assistant GM pointed out, it depends upon the team.
“If you’re Chicago with Bedard or a team like Buffalo with younger players, maybe you hold on to your draft capital but possibly overpay in free agency to get some players in,” the assistant GM said. “You’ve seen it. There is not that length with term but an overpayment in terms of the [average annual value].”
The second executive, who is a GM, said this is a good free agent class for teams that are in a position to add players in certain roles. He said part of the reason why this year’s class may not be the most exciting stems from how a number of teams signed elite players well before they hit the open market.
And while that early work has its advantages, the GM said a by-product of this year’s free agent class is that there could be teams that remain busy beyond July 1.
“There are going to be a few more trades and it will be interesting to see how it all drags out on July 1,” the GM said. “Is it something more where we talk to guys on July 5 and 6? Teams are looking for the right fit and players are looking for the right fit. For a lot of teams, it’s going to be asking who is the right fit and can we make the money work?” — Clark
The Tkachuk effect
The Matthew Tkachuk trade is going to have reverberations through this offseason.
There are going to be teams seeking to acquire another “unicorn” like the Florida Panthers did when they traded two core players — forward Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar — to Calgary for Tkachuk, who had a transformative effect on a team that would win the Eastern Conference.
That’s the wrong lesson to draw from the Matthew Tkachuk trade, given that the list of 25-year-old stars who can score 40 goals and 109 points, score three overtime goals in the playoffs, can check, can agitate and can trade jokes with Charles Barkley is probably limited to Matthew Tkachuk.
The right lesson to draw from it, according to one NHL general manager: Knowing not to prolong the inevitable if a player decides he won’t be returning after the final year of his contract.
“Deals get done if there’s an overpayment or there’s a deadline. A deadline puts pressure on both sides. Well, the draft is a deadline for a player [whose contract is] up a year from now,” said one NHL general manager. “You can announce a signing on July 1. So is there a negotiation or has he made it obvious that he wants to hit the marker next summer, or that he doesn’t want to be here anymore?”
That’s if you can get an answer. Please recall the Flames waiting (and waiting) for a decision from Gaudreau until he left as a free agent. When Tkachuk indicated he’d follow Johnny Hockey out the door in the following summer, Calgary moved him for two players they now have under contract on eight-year extensions. — Wyshynski
Debating the concept of top-line talent
Can anyone produce on Connor McDavid‘s wing? Many fans would say “even I could!” but some around the NHL see a player’s ability to hang on a superstar’s wing as a discernible skill.
Zach Hyman parlayed such an ability into a seven-year, $38.5 million free agent contract with the Edmonton Oilers in 2021, going from Matthews’ line with the Leafs to McDavid’s wing. He had a career-high 36 goals and 83 points last season.
There are two pending UFAs that might occupy that Hyman lane this offseason.
Michael Bunting spent more time with Matthews (expected goals per 60 minutes: 3.77) than without him (expected goals per 60 minutes: 2.97) at 5-on-5 this season. He did the same last season, producing the two best seasons of his four-year NHL career: 112 points in 161 games with the Maple Leafs.
Ivan Barbashev saw time playing on a line with Jordan Kyrou with the St. Louis Blues before being traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. Once there, Barbashev found himself on a line with Jack Eichel and Marchessault that produced a stellar 59.1% expected goals percentage in their run to the Stanley Cup.
Will they get paid? Absolutely. Should they get paid because they can hang with top-line players?
“I’m leery of that,” one NHL executive said. “People say that. I don’t really buy that.”
The executive was more suspicious of Barbashev’s value than Bunting’s.
“Eichel and Marchessault had track records of being elite players long before Ivan Barbashev showed up. But he won a Stanley Cup and he’s a physical player, and that’s how the league works,” said the exec, who theorized that the Golden Knights winger could be in line for a $5 million AAV after making $2.25 million against the cap this season. — Wyshynski
LTIR is “not an issue”
The Vegas Golden Knights welcomed back winger Mark Stone for the first game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs after he underwent back surgery in January. Stone was activated from injured reserve in time for Game 1 of their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets on April 18 — five days after he missed the finale of their regular season, a.k.a. the last game in which they had to worry about being cap-compliant.
Stashing his $9.5 million cap hit on long-term injured reserve allowed them to be active at the trade deadline, adding players like forward Ivan Barbashev to a mix that eventually won the Stanley Cup.
This kind of well-timed recovery is nothing new. The Tampa Bay Lightning famously had Nikita Kucherov miss the 56-game 2020-21 regular season due to offseason surgery, before returning for Game 1 of their Stanley Cup-winning playoff run. But is it something the general managers might seek to change?
“It’s not really an issue,” one GM told ESPN. “It’s smart to use it. If you have a star that gets hurt before the deadline and then you can get depth and get everybody back for the playoffs? It’s your job as a GM to have the best team you can have.”
That said, teams can’t technically control when a player is healthy, especially when they undergo offseason surgery. One of the challenges for GMs in the summer transaction frenzy is to leave room open under the cap for those returning players — should they be able to make it back during the regular season.
“If you have two players that make $5 million each that go on long-term injured reserve to start the season, then your cap is just over $70 million, actually,” one NHL GM said. — Wyshynski