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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
We always think we know what’s coming at this point in the offseason. We know who’s going to be the preseason No. 1 (in this case, two-time defending national champion Georgia), and we know which blue bloods are particularly loaded.
We don’t know everything, though. For starters, a preseason No. 1 team hasn’t actually won the title in five years, so we probably shouldn’t consider Georgia an absolute slam dunk. For another thing, every major contender always heads into the season with questions we don’t know they’ll answer.
This is my annual “Ifs List” piece — an attempt to see how many “ifs” it takes me to turn a team into a genuine national title contender. The favorites don’t require many; a few others might have more than you think.
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national champion over the last 22 seasons has begun the season with title odds worse than +5,000, and only three started worse than +1,900 (LSU was +4,000 in 2003, Auburn +5,000 in 2010, Ohio State +4,000 in 2014). Below are the 17 teams with national title odds of +5,000 or better per Caesars Sportsbook. They are sorted by the number of “ifs” that need to break their way to make them champs. As always, we’re not going to worry about obstacles like injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal.
(Note: SP+ rankings listed below reference the updated numbers mentioned in this recent piece. You can find the complete set of ratings here.)
2 Ifs
Georgia Bulldogs (+230)
If … Carson Beck is ready. A four-star prospect who chose UGA over Alabama, Florida and plenty of other power programs, Beck is Stetson Bennett’s likely successor at quarterback in 2023. Coach Kirby Smart was not necessarily effusive when talking about Beck and the QB position at July’s SEC media days, but whether Beck, sophomore Brock Vandagriff or redshirt freshman Gunner Stockton wins the job, the starter will have a much stronger pedigree than Bennett, the former walk-on, did.
Still, Bennett was ridiculously good in 2022. He finished the season fourth in both Total QBR and the Heisman voting, and in Georgia’s only two close games (tight wins over Missouri and Ohio State), he was a combined 17-for-21 for 268 yards and two scores in the fourth quarter. Beck was awesome in a tiny sample, but he has to match Bennett’s late-game prowess — whenever Georgia actually plays in a close game, anyway.
If … Mike Bobo is too. With offensive coordinator Todd Monken off to call plays for the Baltimore Ravens after overseeing outstanding improvement at UGA (Georgia ranked fourth in offensive SP+ in both 2021 and 2022), the playbook is now in Bobo’s hands.
As an analyst on last year’s UGA staff, Bobo is familiar with both the playbook and the personnel — all-world tight end Brock Bowers, wideout Ladd McConkey, backs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, among others. Considering that Georgia will almost certainly have another elite defense in 2023, this might be the easiest coordinator job Bobo has ever had. Still, college football offenses have changed a lot since the last time he oversaw a good one (2014, in his first stint at Georgia). If he’s not ready, neither is Georgia.
3 Ifs
Alabama Crimson Tide (+600)
If … the Crimson Tide have a QB. It’s been a while since we had this many offseason questions about Alabama. Since I began the Ifs list in 2019, this is the first time I’ve come up with more than two of them. Granted, the last time Bama’s title odds were this low was in 2015 … when they won the title. Nick Saban tends to make the most of lower expectations.
He usually has more proven quarterbacks than this, though. The Crimson Tide have ranked either first or second in offensive SP+ every year since 2017, but they are as uncertain at QB as they’ve been since Jake Coker came off the bench to lead the 2015 title run. Neither 2022 backup Jalen Milroe nor redshirt freshman Ty Simpson fully impressed in the spring, prompting Saban to bring in new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees’ former protege, Tyler Buchner, from Notre Dame. Buchner’s three games in 2022 were an unconvincing roller coaster, and now he might start for Bama?
If … the offensive line is fixed. The Tide ranked 123rd in blown run block rate, 110th in O-line penalties per game, 78th in pressure rate allowed and 60th in stuff rate allowed. Second-year line coach Eric Wolford must craft a more effective unit despite the loss of last year’s three most effective starters. That’s doubly important if the quarterbacks are shakier than usual.
If … the defensive front finds some extra push. With veterans such as tackle Tim Smith and edge rusher Dallas Turner lining up next to thrilling youngsters like tackle Jaheim Oatis and linebacker Deontae Lawson, Bama does not lack for stars up front. But the Tide allowed at least four yards on 49% of rushes last year, 83rd in FBS.
Ohio State Buckeyes (+750)
If … the secondary’s breakdowns are less devastating. Ohio State went 12-0 against non-CFP teams last year and nearly beat Georgia in the semifinals. But in its two losses, to Georgia and Michigan, the Buckeyes gave up an incredible eight gains of 45-plus yards — eight!! — and three of 75-plus.
Jim Knowles enters his second year as defensive coordinator having already established the sort of risk-reward dynamic he eventually succeeded with at Oklahoma State. While Ohio State allowed 16 points per game against teams outside of the offensive SP+ top 15, its three best opponents averaged 39 per game. And now they have to replace four of last year’s top six defensive backs. Question marks remain.
If … Kyle McCord or Devin Brown is ready. Ohio State has been blessed by an even longer run of elite quarterback play than Alabama. With CJ Stroud (and longtime offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson) gone, either McCord or Brown will take over this fall. Considering the embarrassment of riches Ohio State boasts at receiver — Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are the best 1-2 punch in the country (and their backups are awesome, too) — things will probably be fine. But Brown was hurt in the spring, and McCord wasn’t quite as consistent as head coach Ryan Day would have preferred.
If … the new tackles hold up. The Buckeyes’ skill corps is unassailable, but even if Ohio State is as good as ever at QB, it still needs sturdy tackle play. The Buckeyes got it last year from now-departed All-Americans Paris Johnson Jr. and Dawand Jones, but Day could only reel in San Diego State’s Josh Simmons (17 penalties in 2022) and UL Monroe’s Victor Cutler Jr. (six sacks allowed) from the transfer portal, and Ohio State is extremely unproven here.
Michigan Wolverines (+800)
If … the receiving corps improves further. Last year, Michigan fielded its best offense yet under Jim Harbaugh, finishing seventh in offensive SP+. The Wolverines should again boast a dominant run game with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards (2,454 yards last year) returning, along with three starters from an impressive line.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy completed 65% of his passes and finished 16th in Total QBR, but big pass plays were mostly hard to come by (the Ohio State game aside), and in what Sports Info Solutions defined as “contested” passes, McCarthy averaged 3.7 yards per dropback, 142nd among 165 FBS passers with at least 100 passes. His receivers need to help him out a bit more in 2023.
If … another coordinator change doesn’t backfire. With offensive co-coordinator Matt Weiss fired for “computer access crimes” in January, Michigan is dealing with a coordinator change of sorts for the third straight year. Fellow co-coordinator Sherrone Moore just removed the “co-” from his title this time, but Weiss had a major role in playcalling, and constant change near the top of the pecking order can backfire eventually.
If … the pass rush holds up. Michigan ranked fifth in defensive SP+ and returns nine of the 14 defenders who saw 300-plus snaps last season. That includes steady linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett and potential sophomore stars in corner Will Johnson and tackle Mason Graham.
For the second straight year, however, the Wolverines’ top two pass-rushers are gone. No returnee recorded more than 3.5 sacks, and no returning lineman came anywhere close to the 15.1% pressure rate recorded by new Seattle Seahawk Mike Morris. Be it sophomore Derrick Moore, Coastal Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart or someone else, a new star must emerge.
LSU Tigers (+1,000)
If … some more big plays arrive. Brian Kelly’s Tigers won the SEC West because of stellar efficiency. The Tigers went three-and-out just 16% of the time (third in FBS) and forced three-and-outs 36% of the time (24th). They dominated the red zone, too, scoring TDs on 72% of their trips (14th) and allowing them on only 50% (20th).
Despite producing far more successful plays, they gained 20-plus yards on only 67 plays (41st), while opponents did so on 64 (97th). Quarterback Jayden Daniels, for all of his scrambling prowess, averaged under 11 yards per completion. Leading receiver Malik Nabers (14.1 per catch) is dynamite, but it would help immensely if a second big-play threat emerged. While efficiency is the backbone of successful football, explosiveness means easy points. Easy points are quite useful.
If … an ever-changing defensive line pushes back. The LSU defense improved from 39th to 23rd in defensive SP+ last season, but the Tigers ranked just 88th in rushing success rate allowed and gave up more than 200 rushing yards five times (including 201 to Southern). Kelly brought in tackle transfers Jordan Jefferson (West Virginia) and Jalen Lee (Florida), and tackle Maason Smith returns after missing most of last season to injury. Throw in an excellent run stopper in linebacker transfer Omar Speights (Oregon State), and there’s reason for optimism. A lot of improvement is needed, though.
If … the Tigers improve significantly on passing downs. Despite breakout stardom from freshman edge rusher Harold Perkins Jr., and despite taking few risks from a blitzing standpoint, LSU ranked a dismal 80th in passing downs success rate allowed and gave up a ton of chunk plays in the process. As good as they were at knocking opponents off-schedule, the Tigers let opponents off the hook far too much.
Penn State Nittany Lions (+2,200)
If … Drew Allar is the guy. James Franklin might have completely changed the trajectory of his program with his dynamite 2022 signing class. Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and linebacker Abdul Carter were immediate stars, while other blue-chippers such as offensive tackle Drew Shelton, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant all flashed small-sample upside. The impact of this class could be massive, but only if Drew Allar shines, too. The 6-foot-5, 242-pounder was the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2022 class, and he showed potential in 60 passes while backing up Sean Clifford.
With Clifford gone, Allar’s now The Guy. He’ll have a stupendous run game at his disposal, plus high-end playmakers in receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith, tight end Theo Johnson and a potential key transfer in Kent State’s Dante Cephas. If Allar shines, Penn State shines.
If … the rest of the O-line does its job. Penn State’s hopes were further boosted when left tackle Olu Fashanu announced he would return after allowing zero sacks and committing just one penalty in 2022. He’s dynamite, but the rest of the line is less certain: The Nittany Lions ranked 122nd in blown run block rate and 74th in pressure rate allowed. That must improve.
If … the defensive line is Wolverine-proof. Penn State finished seventh in defensive SP+ in coordinator Manny Diaz’s first season, and the pass defense should again be one of the nation’s best. But Michigan shoved the Nittany Lions around for 418 rushing yards in a blowout win in Ann Arbor, and PSU finished the season just 76th in rushing success rate allowed. Michigan is on the schedule again. So is Ohio State. The run defense has to find more push despite a lack of 300-pounders up front.
Tennessee Volunteers (+3,000)
If … Joe Milton is ready. From my SEC East preview: “Milton’s arm has seduced both Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Tennessee’s Josh Heupel. It’s one of the best arms you’ll ever see at the collegiate level. Effortless 60-yard flicks, that kind of stuff. But when it comes to football decision-making, Milton has shown limitations. He hasn’t been able to make the transition from ‘great thrower’ to ‘great quarterback.’ In 2023, Milton will get something college players usually don’t: a third chance.”
Milton looked good (though still pretty sack-prone) in Tennessee’s Orange Bowl win over Clemson, but his career Total QBR is just 64.5, the same as what Nebraska’s Casey Thompson generated last year. (Thompson went 4-6 as a starter, then transferred to Florida Atlantic.) Milton is in maybe the most QB-friendly offense in college football. He’s got a (third) chance to do something spectacular. Will he?
If … there’s a No. 2 cornerback. The Volunteers jumped from 50th to 21st in defensive SP+, but that was mostly due to a strong run defense; the pass defense left something to be desired. We’ll get to the middling pass rush in a minute, but we’ll start at corner, where Kamal Hadden was strong but had no lieutenant. Five different non-Hadden corners started at least one game, and they all allowed at least a 75 QBR in coverage. Everyone’s back, along with BYU transfer Gabe Jeudy-Lally, but someone needs to develop into a big-time Hadden complement.
If … the pass rush steps up. Tennessee blitzed on 35% of dropbacks (21st in FBS) but managed just a 30% pressure rate (50th) and 5.2% sack rate (87th). Only one Volunteer recorded more than three sacks (Byron Young), and he’s gone. This seems problematic.
4 Ifs
USC Trojans (+1,200)
If … the run defense improves dramatically. We grew accustomed to Lincoln Riley combining elite offenses with mediocre defenses at Oklahoma, but his first USC team was a caricature. The Trojans’ offense, led by Heisman winner Caleb Williams, ranked first in points per drive, but the defense ranked 119th. The pass defense was poor, but the Trojans ranked 124th in rushing success rate allowed. They gave up a combined 528 rushing yards in season-ending losses to Utah and Tulane.
The addition of transfers such as Georgia tackle Bear Alexander and Oklahoma State linebacker Mason Cobb (26 run stops in 2022) should help immensely. But how much improvement is possible in a single offseason?
If … the pass defense does, too. Nothing was as bad as the run defense, but USC wasn’t exactly stellar against the pass either. The Trojans ranked 112th in passing success rate allowed, 104th in yards allowed per dropback and dead last in the percentage of opponent passes deemed “wide open,” per Sports Info Solutions. The secondary returns two solid ball hawks in safeties Calen Bullock and Max Williams, but everything from scheme to talent level needs improvement.
If … the tackling also improves. Above all else, the Trojans ranked 123rd in tackle success rate. This was an atrocious defense in almost every possible way, is what I’m saying.
If … Travis Dye and Jordan Addison were replaceable. With Williams returning, it’s difficult to harbor any serious concerns about the offense. It’s going to be great. But the Trojans still have to replace their most high-upside rusher (Dye, who averaged 6.1 yards per carry) and pass-catcher (Addison, who averaged 2.8 receiving yards per route). The Trojans have too many star candidates to list, but some of them still need star turns.
Clemson Tigers (+1,600)
If … Garrett Riley was the right choice. After averaging an offensive SP+ ranking of 6.8 from 2015 to 2020, Clemson averaged just 50.0 over 2021 and 2022. Coach Dabo Swinney finally acceded to the need for an offensive refresh, bringing in Garrett Riley, engineer of TCU’s 2022 offense, as his OC.
Blue-chip sophomore Cade Klubnik shined in the Tigers’ ACC championship game trouncing of North Carolina; we’ll see what he can do in a Riley offense that will likely feature loads of quick, horizontal passes and four-receiver sets.
If … the skill corps extends beyond Will Shipley. Shipley is a star at running back, but four-receiver sets obviously require four receivers. Only one returning wideout caught more than 25 passes last season (slot man Antonio Williams caught 56 for 604 yards as a freshman), and Swinney’s aversion to the transfer portal means he’ll be asking a number of less proven players — juniors Beaux Collins and Jake Briningstool, sophomores like Adam Randall and maybe incoming freshmen — to give Klubnik the proper variety of options.
If … the defensive line is still elite. The Tigers slipped to 14th in defensive SP+, their lowest ranking since 2015, in Wes Goodwin’s first year as coordinator. Now they have to absorb the loss of two first-round linemen (Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee). Can a combination of tackles Ruke Orhorhoro and Tyler Davis, end Xavier Thomas (injured last fall) and standout freshman Peter Woods create the sort of line dominance to which the Tigers have grown accustomed?
If … youth caused mediocre pass defense. With three sophomores and a freshman playing major roles in the secondary, the Tigers ranked just 47th in passing success rate allowed and 110th in completion rate allowed. Can junior Nate Wiggins and a much more experienced corps of cornerbacks lead a steadier effort?
Florida State Seminoles (+1,800)
If … a reinforced defensive line improves. LSU … Penn State … Florida State … there’s a class of contenders that didn’t get nearly enough push from their defensive front last year. FSU allowed at least four yards on 50% of carries last year (93rd in FBS). If big transfers Braden Fiske (Western Michigan) and Darrell Jackson Jr. (Miami) can team with 328-pounder Fabien Lovett (injured in 2022) to provide extra push, playmakers such as end Jared Verse and linebacker Tatum Bethune could be freed to make more plays, and the Seminoles defense could be transformed.
If … cornerbacks win more one-on-ones. The Noles were 41st in passing success rate allowed. Big plays weren’t an issue, but 54% of opponents’ completions resulted in first downs (89th), and opponents completed 37% of what were deemed “contested” passes (102nd). Can Virginia transfer Fentrell Cypress II (12 pass breakups) produce a bit more on-ball aggression?
If … the offensive line has one more gear. FSU’s 2022 O-line was its best since about 2016, but that says a lot more about the 2017-21 lines as the Noles still ranked 106th in OL penalties per game and 78th in blown block rate. Quarterback Jordan Travis is blessed with extreme escapability, and he’s got a loaded skill corps at his disposal. But a run at the CFP will require an experienced line, bolstered by a couple of big transfer additions, to take another step forward.
If … the Noles find their ceiling immediately. The Noles have only three games with a projected win probability lower than 73%, per SP+, but two of those games show up in September: their Week 1 battle with LSU in Orlando and their Week 4 trip to Clemson. Some contenders can ease their way toward fifth gear. FSU has to start there.
Texas Longhorns (+2,000)
If … Quinn Ewers (or some other Texas QB) shows up on key plays. On first downs, Quinn Ewers ranked 19th in raw QBR in 2022. On third downs: 104th. In first quarters, Ewers ranked 46th. In fourth quarters: 97th.
Ewers had promising moments, but he was dreadful on the most important downs and in the most important quarter. You could say the same thing about the Horns. They outscored opponents by 179 points in the first three quarters, got outscored by 12 in the fourth quarter and overtime and went 2-5 in one-score finishes. They dominated at times and aced the predictive ratings — seventh in both FPI and SP+ — but still went just 8-5.
Was this a sample-size oddity? Can Ewers come through in key moments before he loses his job to either blue-chip freshman Arch Manning or spring star Maalik Murphy?
If … Sark does, too. While close-game records are typically unsustainable and can oscillate constantly, it does bear mentioning that Steve Sarkisian has lost 11 of his last 15 one-score games as a head coach. This goes higher up than Ewers on the org chart.
If … young running backs aren’t a hindrance. Ewers’ veteran receiving corps should be stellar, but the Horns will lack both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson at running back. Can some combination of sophomores Jonathon Brooks and Jaydon Blue and blue-chip freshman Cedric Baxter Jr. provide a sufficient security blanket?
If … opponents move backward more. Texas leaped from 86th to 22nd in defensive SP+ last season, driven by excellent run pursuit and big-play prevention. But the Horns still ran into trouble on third and fourth downs because, while they were preventing efficiency, they weren’t pushing opponents backward: They ranked 106th in sack rate and 102nd in stuff rate. Forcing second-and-8 is good; forcing second-and-12 is better.
Texas A&M Aggies (+2,800)
If … Bobby Petrino still has it. Finally accepting that his offense needed modernization after falling to 63rd in offensive SP+ last year, Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher, 13-11 over the last two seasons, searched far and wide for answers and came back with … Bobby Petrino.
The 62-year-old former Louisville and Arkansas head coach can still draw up a game plan with the best of them. He proved that when his Missouri State Bears put up 27 points and 400 yards on Arkansas last year. He produced moments of brilliance at all of his other stops, too, but returns typically diminish. Louisville collapsed at the end of his 2014-18 tenure, and even last year Missouri State plummeted from 10th to 57th in FCS scoring. Petrino inherits a passing game with spectacular upside — Conner Weigman throwing to Evan Stewart, Ainias Smith and Moose Muhammad III should theoretically produce fireworks no matter who’s calling the plays — but he’s got almost as much to prove as Fisher.
If … the O-line is actually stable. If your offense starts 10 different linemen in a single season, it’s probably going to stink. That’s what happened to A&M last year. But nine of those 10 linemen return, and with better luck avoiding injuries and having overall stability, the line play could improve immensely.
If … youth explains a mediocre D-line. The defensive line rotation featured eight players, all of whom were freshmen and sophomores, and the Aggies ranked just 69th in rushing success rate allowed. Former blue-chippers abound, and improvement is all but guaranteed. How much?
If … the pass rush shows up. The A&M pass defense was brilliant despite ranking just 92nd in sack rate. That says a lot about the secondary’s prowess, but better pressure would turn this defense into a potential top-five unit.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3,000)
If … Sam Hartman has what he needs. One of the jewels of the 2023 transfer cycle, Hartman brings 12,967 career passing yards and 110 touchdowns to South Bend. New offensive coordinator Gerad Parker should be able to combine last year’s power-rushing identity with far more high-upside passing … if he’s got the receivers.
Tight end Michael Mayer and leading wideouts Lorenzo Styles and Braden Lenzy are gone, and while slot receivers Jayden Thomas and Chris Tyree should provide efficiency, Hartman likes looking deep. Will a former blue-chipper like Deion Colzie or Tobias Merriweather come through?
If … Gerad Parker makes Marcus Freeman look good. At best, Parker was Freeman’s third choice to replace Bama-bound Tommy Rees. Parker’s West Virginia offenses in 2020 and 2021 ranked 76th and 66th in offensive SP+, respectively, attempting 50-50 run-pass balance despite never really running well. He inherits high-upside personnel, but he has to make the most of it.
If … a small-ish defensive line packs a punch. Veteran coordinator Al Golden’s first Irish defense slipped to 32nd in defensive SP+, due primarily to a No. 61 ranking in rushing success rate allowed. They gave up more than 200 rushing yards to Marshall, Navy and USC. The line, led by senior Howard Cross III, has plenty of experience, but the top five returnees average just 6-foot-3, 286 pounds, smaller than what a lot of high-level 3-3-5 defenses aim for. Small-ish or not, it has to play bigger.
If … there’s an Isaiah Foskey replacement on board. Notre Dame had both an awesome secondary and awesome pass rush in 2022. Corners Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart should assure the former still applies, but the latter will depend on finding a high-level replacement for Foskey, whose 11 sacks were by far the most on the team.
Oregon Ducks (+3,500)
If … a big-play receiver emerges. The Ducks mastered the art of efficiency in 2022. They were first in success rate, with Bo Nix completing 72% of his passes and backs Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington moving the chains on 33% of carries.
Explosiveness lacked, however. They made just 27 gains of 30-plus yards, 57th in FBS. Only four of them came in their three losses. Leading receiver Troy Franklin and transfers Tez Johnson (Troy) and Gary Bryant Jr. (USC) all have big-play potential, and a few more chunk plays for new coordinator Will Stein would make a world of difference.
If … a rebuilt O-line doesn’t crumble. Oregon ranked first nationally in pressure rate allowed (18.0%), and Irving and Whittington averaged 3.0 yards per carry before contact. But only one starter from a brilliant line returns up front. Coach Dan Lanning signed four big transfers and gets 2021 starter Steven Jones back from injury. But the bar’s high here.
If … the pass rush exists. Despite a decent run defense, the Ducks ranked 74th in defensive SP+, primarily because they couldn’t get off the field on third down. They were 123rd in third-down conversion rate allowed (46.8%) and 127th in sack rate (3.5%). Lanning revamped the secondary with transfers, but former South Carolina end Jordan Burch and blue-chip freshman Matayo Uiagalelei are the only new marquee players on the edge. They must produce.
If … the Ducks win the red zone. Even with said run defense, the Ducks were 53rd in red zone touchdown rate allowed and 113th in goal line success rate. Turning one touchdown into a field goal might have resulted in two more wins last year.
Washington Huskies (+4,000)
If … big plays flip a bit more in UW’s favor. Washington’s offense was a facsimile of Oregon’s — absurdly efficient (fifth in success rate), with a comfortable quarterback (11th in pressure rate) and leading backs averaging 3.0 yards per carry before contact. But explosiveness came and went. In the seven games in which they scored 39 or more points, the Huskies averaged 8.1 gains per game of 20-plus yards. In the other six games (which included both losses), they averaged just 3.2 such plays.
With quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returning, along with back Cameron Davis and the receiver trio of Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, experience and efficiency will be major strengths. But will the Huskies get the big plays when they need them?
If … a new interior line holds up. Another Oregon similarity: Washington’s line took a hit, losing all-conference guard Jaxson Kirkland and two other starters. Tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten could be dynamite, but the Huskies’ passing game benefited from strong between-the-tackles running. Regression there could cause a domino effect.
If … the linebacking improves. The defensive front includes dynamite 300-pounders Tuli Letuligasenoa and Faatui Tuitele and edge rusher Bralen Trice. The secondary adds Oklahoma State’s Jabbar Muhammad to an otherwise veteran unit. But Washington struggled with missed tackles, especially in run defense (they were 100th in rushing success rate despite seemingly solid line play). Can the Huskies generate more consistency with a linebacker corps led by Alphonzo Tuputala and USC transfer Ralen Goforth?
If … the coverage does, too. Washington was equally inefficient against the pass. Adding Muhammad could change the mindset for co-coordinators William Inge and Chuck Morrell. Something needs to change for a defense that put far too much pressure on its offense.
Utah Utes (+5,000)
If … Cam Rising is 100% by Sept. 2. Utah is a projected underdog in just two games, and only marginally so. But September games against Florida (home), Baylor (road) and UCLA (home) are all near-tossups, especially if star quarterback Cam Rising is less than full strength. He tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl and has been racing back to 100%. Redshirt freshman Brandon Rose looked good in spring practice, but Utah’s ceiling is highest with Rising.
If … this is the year Utah wins the big-play battle. Utah again combined ruthless efficiency with minimal big-play presence in 2022, ranking fourth in success rate but averaging just 1.7 gains of 30-plus yards per game, 86th overall. In four losses, they managed three such plays. The return of tight end Brant Kuithe from injury and the addition of slot receivers Emery Simmons and Mycah Pittman should make them even more efficient, but proven big-play threats still are lacking. (Unless this is the year junior Money Parks puts it all together.)
If … the defense forces more field goals. Utah fell to 40th in defensive SP+ in 2022. The Utes were 28th in success rate allowed, but that efficiency vanished in the red zone, where they allowed touchdowns 70% of the time (120th). They’ve got solid size up front — especially if 330-pound sophomore Simote Pepa develops further — but they need more of a push.
If … Clark Phillips III has a replacement. Big plays were also an issue — despite low blitz rates, opponents found plenty of wide-open receivers, especially downfield. This was the case with corner Clark Phillips III, one of the school’s best ever defenders. What happens without him? Can veterans JaTravis Broughton and Zemaiah Vaughn and Ole Miss transfer Miles Battle pick up some slack?
5 Ifs
Oklahoma Sooners (+4,000)
If … recent star recruits shine in the skill corps. It speaks to OU’s reputation that the Sooners can have top-20 title odds after going 6-7. But five of their losses came by one score — they’re not that far away. But with last year’s leading rusher and top two receivers gone, a Sooners leap will require players such as running back Jovantae Barnes and receivers Jalil Farooq, Jayden Gibson and freshman Jaquaize Pettaway to live up to recent blue-chip rankings.
If … Bill Bedenbaugh’s still got it. The Sooners line was excellent last year — 12th in pressure rate allowed, third in blown block rate. But three starters are gone, including all-conference left tackle Anton Harrison. Bedenbaugh, one of the nation’s best line coaches, has some work to do.
If … transfers are the answer for the D-line. Head coach Brent Venables’ first Oklahoma defense ranked 70th in rushing success rate allowed and 98th in sack rate. Venables brought in six transfer linemen, led by end Trace Ford (Oklahoma State) and big tackle Da’Jon Terry (Tennessee), plus two linebackers. Will this start looking like a Venables defense at some point?
If … recent star recruits shine in the secondary. Despite losing six of 10 defensive backs with more than 150 snaps, Venables added only one transfer DB. If the pass defense holds up, it could be because of blue-chip sophomores Robert Spears-Jennings and Gentry Williams and/or freshmen like Peyton Bowen.
If … culture kicks in. After six straight years in the SP+ top 10, OU slipped to 12th in Lincoln Riley’s last season and 20th in Venables’ first. The defense has played at a top-30 level only once in the last nine years. The standard is slowly slipping, and Venables, who spent a decade with master culture builder Dabo Swinney at Clemson, needs to rectify that immediately.