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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
Retaining the No. 1 spot in college football is normally a great thing.
Not in these rankings. And not for Texas A&M.
No team ever wants to be No. 1 in college football’s underachiever tiers, the annual preseason exercise examining the programs that do the least with the most. Keeping the top spot is especially painful, but it has happened with the Aggies.
Georgia was the inspiration for the initial rankings. Coach Kirby Smart’s team proceeded to win it all in 2021 and repeated last year, cementing itself as college football’s preeminent program.
Texas A&M’s placement atop last year’s rankings came with the caveat: Look at Georgia! Just be like Georgia! The Aggies had signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class, headlined by four defensive line recruits rated in ESPN’s top 7 nationally, several standout perimeter players and Conner Weigman, ESPN’s No. 27 overall prospect. Coach Jimbo Fisher had enough to challenge in the SEC West and build on an 8-4 season.
Instead, the Aggies regressed and went 5-7, logging their first losing record since 2008 and Fisher’s first full losing season as a head coach (he left 5-6 Florida State for Texas A&M in 2017 and the Seminoles went on to finish 7-6). There’s no choice but to leave Texas A&M right at the top.
The list includes other repeat selections, as certain programs, despite clear advantages, continue to spin their wheels or backslide. The objective is to identify programs that aren’t capitalizing on long-term edges such as history, location, fan/booster base and financial resources, and new ones such as NIL clout and media rights revenue.
Much like the first two versions, I’ve divided teams into six different tiers. Unlike Georgia and Texas A&M, not every team that appears is a realistic national championship contender. Some shouldn’t expect to be in the conference title mix very often. But all should be expecting and achieving more.
To maintain consistency, teams are evaluated primarily on the past 20 seasons (2003 to 2022) with extra emphasis on the last 5 to 7. Teams that have made the College Football Playoff are exempt — TCU wouldn’t appear anyway, but the Horned Frogs are officially clear — as are national champions from the past 15 seasons (2008 to 2022).
Tier I: Aggies keep top spot
Texas A&M: After the 2020 season, Texas A&M appeared to be on its way under Fisher. The Aggies had navigated an SEC-only schedule to record their first AP top-5 finish since 2012. Financial clout has never been the issue in Aggieland, and few programs were better positioned for the NIL era.
Instead, Texas A&M went 13-11 overall and 6-10 in SEC play over the past two seasons. Despite one of the nation’s strongest NIL collectives and an excellent recruiting location less than two hours from Houston in southeast Texas, the Aggies haven’t translated success to the field. Last season, they dropped a Week 2 home game to Appalachian State and endured a five-game losing streak before finishing with an upset over LSU.
Fisher might have been fired if not for a very A&M-like contract that makes a change financially prohibitive for the immediate future. Instead, he fired offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey and brought in Bobby Petrino. While the move indicates Fisher will take a less hands-on role with the unit, it sets up a potentially combustible combination of two headstrong coaches who have built their reputations on calling offensive plays and not being second-guessed (at least internally).
Texas A&M has no national titles since 1939, no conference titles since 1998, no BCS championship or CFP appearances and no consecutive AP top-10 finishes since a streak of three straight from 1992 to 1994.
Maybe 2023 is the season for a Texas A&M breakthrough. The defense is undeniably talented, especially up front. If the offense can reach the 30-point mark more often — it happened just twice last season — and Weigman takes off under Petrino, the Aggies could make a push in the SEC West, where Alabama seems a bit shaky and LSU is in the second year of a new regime.
“I still think they’re a ticking time bomb, but if they win early, and they’ve got an easy schedule to start, it sets up,” an SEC West assistant coach said. “They didn’t have quarterback play last year, but Weigman kept coming along, and I thought he was a good player at the end of the year. Did [Fisher] right the ship? If he did, they’re going to be good.”
Texas A&M’s deep-pocketed boosters have and will continue to step up financially. While most schools wouldn’t entertain firing Fisher any time soon, given the guaranteed money on his contract (around $77 million), Texas A&M can spend its way out of trouble. There are also two seemingly A-list coaching candidates within the state in TCU’s Sonny Dykes and UTSA‘s Jeff Traylor.
The urgency in Aggieland couldn’t be any higher for a program that has failed to reach its potential for 30 years.
Tier II: CFP no-shows
USC: The Trojans are close to removing themselves from this tier, but their futility during the CFP era has stood out. A program that claims 11 national championships and eight Heisman Trophy winners, including quarterback Caleb Williams last season, has not won college football’s biggest prize since 2004. Coach Lincoln Riley nearly guided the Trojans to their first CFP appearance in his first season before a deflating loss to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game. USC has one more year of Williams (barring injury) and one more year in the Pac-12 before a seismic move to the Big Ten. History and location have always favored USC, and the program is finally stepping up financially in areas such as facilities and NIL. Athletic director Mike Bohn’s messy departure adds to a period of administrative turbulence USC must fix with his replacement. But the team is gathering top-tier talent, both through recruiting and especially the transfer portal. USC’s lukewarm vibe during the latter part of coach Clay Helton’s tenure, which resembled the pre-Pete Carroll era, has vanished under Riley. But the team needs to make its CFP debut soon.
Texas: Since former Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger proclaimed the program was back after a 2019 Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, the Longhorns are 28-20, just ahead of Army and Toledo in overall win percentage (46th nationally). During the same span, Baylor and Kansas State have won the Big 12, while TCU made the CFP with a first-year coach (Dykes) and a team that had gone 5-7 the previous season. Big 12 coaches considered Texas to be the league’s most talented team in 2022. Although the Longhorns pushed Alabama in Week 2 and walloped Oklahoma 49-0, they also dropped five games by seven points or fewer and put up just 10 points at home against TCU. The Texas brand hasn’t matched the on-field product for a very long time, and the behind-the-scenes politics with a large and influential booster base adds to the challenge. But coach Steve Sarkisian once again has the Big 12’s best roster, and a league title — and possible CFP appearance — seems essential before jumping to the SEC. Texas has had just one national title since 1970 and only two conference titles since 1996.
Miami: The past 20 years have been especially sobering for the U. Miami is 152-99 overall with no conference titles since claiming a shared Big East crown in 2003. The CFP era hasn’t brought much more of note, as the Hurricanes have no AP top-10 finishes and just three top 25-finishes since 2009. Miami has an incredible championship history and a location near many high-level recruits. The school lacks the massive fan/donor base as others on this list, though, and only recently started to make the necessary investments under coach Mario Cristobal. But Cristobal’s first season flopped, as the team went 5-7 with five blowout losses, and the staff largely turned over in the winter. Cristobal will have time to course-correct. He’s an elite and tireless recruiter, and Miami has become a notable NIL player, although the recent news around booster John Ruiz is concerning. A bigger concern is Miami has gone through several coaches with ties to the school and/or city and not resembled a consistent national contender.
Tier III: Big city blues
UCLA: Playing college football in a major media market has more advantages than drawbacks for UCLA. The school’s Westwood campus is located in a prime area of Los Angeles, and UCLA has achieved national powerhouse status in a variety of sports, including men’s basketball. But the Bruins haven’t found a consistent foothold in football since the 1980s, when the team posted five AP top-10 finishes in seven seasons. UCLA hasn’t won a conference title since 1998 and has recorded only one AP top-10 finish since that season. The program fell far behind in facilities and had lukewarm fan/donor interest until recently, when UCLA built a football-only building on campus and swung big to land coach Chip Kelly. But even Kelly, who dominated the Pac-12 at Oregon, has managed only one AP top-25 finish and no seasons with fewer than four losses during his five years in Westwood. The team’s trajectory seems stable after two solid seasons, but UCLA is still waiting for a breakthrough before jumping across the country to the Big Ten in 2024.
Maryland: College Park is located just outside the District of Columbia, placing Maryland in one of the nation’s prime metro recruiting spots. Most programs in the eastern half of the country recruit the DMV region (Washington D.C., Maryland, Virginia). Maryland has made its mark in recruiting and in the NFL draft, but the program’s overall achievement is clearly lacking. The team has only one AP top-25 finish since 2004 and no top-10 finishes since 1976. Other than a 31-8 run under Ralph Friedgen from 2001 to 2003, Maryland has had only two other seasons with more than eight wins (both under Friedgen) since 1985. Maryland always will have a basketball lean, and football interest/investment has been spotty at times, but programs with less have achieved more. Coach Mike Locksley, who has stabilized the program and recruited well, last week said the program is ready to compete for championships in the Big Ten.
Arizona State: Coaches have long viewed ASU as a program capable of so much more. The school boasts a massive student enrollment and the campus is located just outside Phoenix, the nation’s fifth-largest city. Arizona State logged four AP top-10 finishes between 1970 and 1975 and since has produced bursts of success, including Rose Bowl appearances in 1987 and 1997 and consecutive 10-win seasons in 2013 and 2014. ASU in 2019 completed a five-year renovation project of Sun Devil Stadium that exceeded $300 million. But the program’s performance hasn’t matched the financial commitment, as ASU has reached eight or more wins just once since 2014. After a dominant run in the WAC under coach Frank Kush, ASU has only three Pac-12 titles and none since 2007 (shared).
Tier IV: Tobacco Road woes
North Carolina: UNC’s identity always will be linked to basketball, where it has won six NCAA championships. But football also resonates in the region, and, as the state’s flagship school, UNC has favorable access to talent and a history of producing NFL first-round draft picks and other notable players. Despite middling fan/donor interest, North Carolina is the type of program that seemingly would stumble into an ACC title now and then, or at least the occasional AP top-10 finish. But the Tar Heels haven’t won the conference since 1980. They have played in the league championship game just twice. Their last AP top-10 finish came in 1997, when they finished No. 6 in the final year of coach Mack Brown’s first go-round. UNC’s past three coaches (Brown, Larry Fedora, Butch Jones) all produced solid seasons — just no truly great ones.
NC State: Much like its rival 25 miles to the west, NC State is positioned well for recruiting and has collected its fair share of stars. NC State is also more of a football school than North Carolina, boasting a passionate fan base and an enthusiastic environment at Carter-Finley Stadium. The Wolfpack have an excellent quarterback tradition that includes NFL players Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett and Mike Glennon in the past 20 years. But NC State’s most promising seasons always go off track or come up short. The team hasn’t won the ACC since 1979, and hasn’t finished in the AP top 15 since 2002, also the program’s last 10-win season. Coach Dave Doeren has brought stability, finishing in the final CFP standings four times since 2017. But his high-water mark is nine wins.
Tier V: Group of 5 misery
South Florida: The Bulls are a repeat inclusion, which should come as no surprise following a 1-11 season. As I-4 rival UCF gets set to enter the Big 12, South Florida is trying to find its way after going 4-29 the past three seasons. Consecutive AP top-25 finishes in 2016 and 2017 feel like a long time ago as South Florida went from an emerging program to one rebooting under new coach Alex Golesh. South Florida is in an advantageous recruiting location in Tampa, and has financial backing after opening a $22 million indoor practice facility in January. The next big step is an on-campus football stadium, which this spring received funding approval (estimated cost of $340 million) and is targeted for completion in the fall of 2026. A reshaped American Athletic Conference should give South Florida a chance to rise up the ranks, although the first step is bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018.
UNLV: Realignment additions are about much more than on-field performance, but when UNLV has surfaced as a Power 5 expansion candidate, it’s hard to ignore the team’s horrible history. UNLV entered the FBS in 1978 and had its only consistently successful decade right away, highlighted by an 11-win season in 1982. Since 1986, the program hasn’t put together consecutive winning seasons. The Rebels have just three bowl appearances in the span, and 13 seasons with two wins or fewer (all since 1995). UNLV has tried a variety of coaches and generally given each some time, but none has generated tangible success. In the past 20 seasons, only New Mexico State has fewer wins than UNLV (66) among FBS programs that competed throughout the span. Las Vegas certainly is a growing sports market and a solid recruiting area. UNLV’s facilities have improved recently. But the results just aren’t there.
Texas State: Unlike others on the list, Texas State is a much newer program at the FBS level (started in 2012). There have been administrative and financial challenges, impacting facilities and the overall infrastructure. But Texas State still has an excellent location — between Austin and San Antonio on Interstate 35 — and a student enrollment of more than 38,000. Although the school is a bit of an outlier in the Sun Belt, it also has the best access to the dense Texas recruiting market. But since two decent seasons under Dennis Franchione in 2013 and 2014, Texas State hasn’t won more than three games. Since 2015, only UMass and Kansas have worse win percentages than Texas State (.240). Paul Blake and Andre Krimm aren’t walking through that door, although Texas State hopes new coach G.J. Kinne can finally figure out the formula for success in San Marcos.
Tier VI: Bowls are the goal
Colorado: Deion Sanders took the Colorado coaching job with much higher ambitions than bowl eligibility, but it’s a good starting point. Colorado went 1-11 in 2022 and hasn’t reached a bowl game in a full season since 2016 (the Buffaloes went 4-2 during the shortened 2020 campaign and played in the Alamo Bowl). There have been financial challenges at times and Colorado, while located near a major market in Denver, has to fill out much of its roster from other states. But Colorado has a decorated history, including a national title in 1990 and 10 AP top-20 finishes between 1989 and 2002. The program hasn’t been a consistent bowl team for 15 years, though. Sanders’ arrival and a return to the Big 12 could provide the boost Colorado sorely needs.
Nebraska: The goals have shifted for Nebraska, which likely can never recapture the national glory of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s because of today’s recruiting environment. But the Huskers should at least anticipate regular bowl appearances and the occasional push for an expanded CFP spot. Nebraska hasn’t reached the postseason since 2016, its longest drought since 1961, the year before Bob Devaney took over as coach. In the past six seasons, Nebraska ranks 113th nationally in win percentage (.338). Nebraska can’t excel in national recruiting like it once did, but the program still has tremendous financial backing and fan/donor interest. Matt Rhule is a strong coaching hire who should provide the stability Nebraska needs.
Rutgers: Greg Schiano proved what was possible at Rutgers in his first go-round as coach, reaching five consecutive bowl games and six in seven seasons before departing for the NFL. Kyle Flood maintained Rutgers’ consistent postseason participation, including a Quick Lane Bowl appearance in the team’s inaugural Big Ten season of 2014. But Rutgers hasn’t had a winning season since, recording the fifth-worst winning percentage in the FBS (.266) during the span. Schiano’s much-celebrated return has yielded only one bowl appearance, for a 5-7 team asked to fill Texas A&M’s spot because of COVID-19 issues. Rutgers has some baked-in challenges with its history, resources and placement in the rugged Big Ten East Division. But the school also has made stronger financial commitments to Schiano and can capitalize on its recruiting location. The next step is results (i.e. bowl appearances).