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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Caleb Williams is the best player in college football. He won the Heisman in 2022 by throwing for 4,537 yards and an eye-popping 42-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. He puts off more Mahomesian vibes than anyone in college football has since Patrick Mahomes himself. You hold your breath when he starts looking to improvise. He’s incredible.
He’s also a known entity. We know what we have in Williams, and we know he’s the major reason the USC Trojans are the betting favorites to win the Pac-12 title race.
There are birds in hand, and there are unfinished products. We know what the former has to offer, but breakthroughs for the latter play a definitive role in the national title race this year. We headed into 2019 without knowing everything we needed to know about Joe Burrow, right? Mac Jones in 2020? Stetson Bennett in 2021?
My annual Most Important Players list is about those unknowns. Here are 25 players who could define the season with either moments or long spells of greatness. Some play for contenders, while others play for the teams that might prevent contenders from reaching their goals. All of them will have a chance to make their mark on 2023.
Pure transcendence potential
25. QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
It’s possible we’ve seen the best of Penix. The senior threw for 4,197 yards and 29 touchdowns over parts of four injury-plagued seasons at Indiana, then transferred to Washington to rejoin former IU offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer and topped his Hoosier career in one fell swoop. His 4,641-yard, 31-touchdown performance completely reversed the Huskies’ fortunes and earned him eighth place in the Heisman voting.
That’s quite the denouement, but Penix elected to return for a sixth year and write one more act. What if, with a loaded receiving corps and a bit more help from his defense, Penix one-ups himself? Washington might only be an underdog a couple of times in 2023, after all. Five thousand yards, a spot in the Pac-12 and a CFP run all might be on the table.
24. QB Bo Nix, Oregon
Nix didn’t battle injuries like Penix, but his story arc is similar in other ways. In three years at Auburn, he threw for 7,251 yards and 39 touchdowns, but both he and the Tigers seemed to have peaked with each other, and Nix seemed to need some new input to turn his “It’s hero time!” tendencies into something more consistent.
I would say a 72% completion rate and Oregon’s No. 2 ranking in passing success rate qualifies as “consistent.” Nix was a revelation in Eugene, throwing for 3,593 yards and 29 TDs and rushing for 14 more scores with only seven interceptions and five sacks. His playmaking tendencies honed and polished, he heads into his senior season like Penix: with a dynamite skill corps (and, it must be said, a rebuilt offensive line) and CFP aspirations.
23. OLB Dallas Turner, Alabama
The bar for star power is high in Tuscaloosa, and it looked like Turner was well on the way to clearing it as a true freshman. His 8.5 sacks (and seven sacks created for teammates) made him an almost unfair complement to Will Anderson Jr. But in 2022, both Anderson’s and Turner’s production fell as a mediocre-by-Bama-standards run defense kept opponents on schedule more and opposing quarterbacks made a lot quicker drops and quicker passes. Turner’s sack rate fell from 4.7% to 1.4%, his sack total from 8.5 to four (despite far more pass rush attempts), with four sacks created for others.
With Anderson and quarterback Bryce Young gone, Bama finds itself with fewer known stars than it’s had in quite a while. Are the stars aligning from an Anderson-esque breakthrough for Turner?
22. RB Nicholas Singleton, Penn State
There are few feelings more exhilarating for a college football observer than watching a young player who (a) is doing physically spectacular things we rarely see and (b) clearly has another gear or two to find. That was the Nick Singleton experience in full in 2022. The blue-chip freshman had high expectations and exceeded them all, rushing for 1,061 yards and 12 touchdowns despite splitting carries with another outstanding freshman, Kaytron Allen. Among Singleton’s 156 carries were gains of 44, 45, 48, 53, 54, 70 and 87 yards, plus a 100-yard kick return against Rutgers. He averaged a shocking 4.7 yards per carry after contact with 20 broken tackles. As a freshman!
He also fumbled three times with minimal contributions in the passing game. He’s probably going to get better. That’s a scary thought.
21. TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
The junior from California has already been a prime contributor on a pair of national title teams, and he will rank almost shockingly (and justifiably) high on any list of the nation’s top players despite the fact that he’s a tight end. He scored on passes of 73 and 78 yards last year … and also scored on a 75-yard run.
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Brock Bowers wastes no time with 75-yard TD run
Brock Bowers takes the handoff and scores to put the Bulldogs up 7-0.
I’m basically putting Bowers on this list as a personal challenge, a dare. What can you possibly do to top what you’ve already done at a position that doesn’t tend to see these sorts of things?
Spoiler quarterbacks
20. QB KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
At 6-foot-3, 246 pounds, Jefferson is one of college football’s most imposing and physical quarterbacks. In two seasons as a starter, he’s thrown for 5,312 yards and 45 touchdowns and rushed for 1,304 yards and 15 more scores. He’ll be working with a new offensive coordinator (Dan Enos) and receiving corps this fall, but he’s still a frightening matchup for nearly everyone.
Nearly everyone. He torched Alabama in 2021, throwing for 326 yards and three scores, but that performance was offset by his going a combined 21-for-37 for 220 yards and six sacks against Georgia in 2021 and Bama in 2022. Enos could introduce some stylistic changes to the offense, and we’ll see how that goes, but Jefferson still has potential to wreck a contender’s plans before his eligibility runs out.
19. QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (No. 23 in 2022)
Three years into the Spencer Rattler experience, at both Oklahoma and South Carolina, and we still don’t really know what we’re looking at. When the cannon-armed senior is good, he’s unbelievable; just ask Tennessee, whose defense he absolutely torched (30-for-37, 438 yards and six touchdowns) during the Gamecocks’ 63-38 upset in late 2022. But when he’s bad, he’s equally unbelievable. Against Georgia, Missouri and Florida last year — teams with great, very good and merely decent defenses, respectively — he went a combined 51-for-81 for 434 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions and seven sacks, and South Carolina scored a total of 23 points.
South Carolina plays Georgia, Tennessee and Clemson in 2023 (as always), and if Rattler ever establishes a genuinely consistent run of form, the Gamecocks will have a solid say in who makes the CFP.
18. QB Conner Weigman, Texas A&M
It wouldn’t be a Most Important Players list without an appearance from Texas A&M’s QB of choice. Granted, most of the time they’re further up this list (just as A&M is further up the contender’s list). The Aggies began both 2021 and 2022 in the preseason AP top 10 and finished both seasons unranked, going a combined 13-11, and to reverse this puzzling trajectory Jimbo Fisher brought in an old hand, Bobby Petrino.
With Weigman and a dynamite receiving corps of Evan Stewart, Ainias Smith and Moose Muhammad III, Petrino’s got great raw materials to work with. Weigman played his best game in his last game of 2022 (an upset of No. 5 LSU); we’ll see if Petrino can sculpt this lump of clay well enough to at least pull an upset or two this fall.
Other candidates: [Insert QB here], Ole Miss; QB Brady Cook, Missouri; QB Graham Mertz, Florida; QB Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland; QB Payton Thorne, Auburn
Potential stars in need of a breakthrough
17. WR Ja’Corey Brooks, Alabama
After an all-time run of receiver talent, Alabama found itself with more of a transitional receiving corps in 2022.
Bama’s leading receivers:
2018: Jerry Jeudy (1,315 yards, 14 TDs)
2019: DeVonta Smith (1,256 yards, 14 TDs)
2020: DeVonta Smith (1,856 yards, 23 TDs)
2021: Jameson Williams (1,572 yards, 15 TDs)
2022: Jermaine Burton (just 677 yards, 7 TDs)
With Bryce Young gone and Bama looking at an uncertain QB situation, the new starter of choice will need more upside at the WR position, and while Burton was last year’s receiving leader, Brooks (674 yards, 17.3 per catch, 2.3 yards per route run) likely had the most potential. He’s got the pedigree for a huge breakout year, but it needs to come immediately.
16. LT Josh Fryar, Ohio State
As with Allar, Ohio State’s new starting quarterback, be it Kyle McCord or Devin Brown, will have plenty of things going for him — namely, the best skill corps in the country and a Ryan Day offensive system that has produced five straight top-five finishes in offensive SP+.
We don’t yet know what the Buckeyes will have to offer at offensive tackle, however. All-Americans Paris Johnson Jr. and Dawand Jones are both gone, as is center Luke Wypler, and the competition for a starting spot continues. Fryar appears to be the front-runner on the left, but he’s got a high bar to clear, and his 2022 sample — 229 blocks with a 3.1% blown block rate — was unconvincing. Still, some combination of Fryar, SDSU transfer Josh Simmons and youngsters Tegra Tshabola and Luke Montgomery have to come through.
15. CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State
I’ve repeated this line constantly this offseason, but it remains incredible: In Ohio State’s two losses in 2022, to Michigan and Georgia, the Buckeyes allowed eight plays of 45-plus yards, five through the air. Coordinator Jim Knowles’ aggressive, three-and-out heavy style worked against most opponents last year and will again in 2023, but against the most athletic teams on the schedule, the Buckeye defense will desperately need to avoid these devastating glitches.
The emergence of a shutdown corner might therefore make as big a difference as the emergence of a new Heisman-level QB. Burke is the most likely candidate. A breakout star as a freshman, he battled constant nagging injuries in 2022 and saw his numbers slip. (QBR allowed: 41.1 in 2021, 86.8 in 2022.) If he’s healthy and confident, he could be a transformative presence.
14. WR Cornelius Johnson, Michigan
Jim Harbaugh molded Michigan into a two-time CFP team by basically eliminating weaknesses, one at a time. The Wolverines might not have quite the big-play upside of other major contenders, but their floor is immensely high.
The new weakest link to address might be receiver play. It wasn’t bad by any means, but among last year’s CFP quarterbacks, J.J. McCarthy got far less help than the others when it came to receivers making contested catches.
Passing stats for contested passes, per Sports Info Solutions: Stetson Bennett, Georgia: 42% completion rate, 7.4 yards per dropback; C.J. Stroud, Ohio State: 41%, 6.2 Max Duggan, TCU: 36%, 6.0 McCarthy: 28%, 3.7.
Johnson is Michigan’s leading returning wideout, and he was the Wolverines’ best contested-catch player a year ago. If he’s got an extra gear, so does Michigan.
Other candidates: WR Malik Nabers, LSU; DT T’Vondre Sweat, Texas; WR Squirrel White, Tennessee; WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Most important transfers
13. WR Dante Cephas, Penn State
Good run game? Check. Outstanding left tackle (Olu Fashanu)? Check. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has a lot going for him as he likely steps into the role of starter, but we don’t know everything we need to know about his actual receiving corps yet. Of the four players who caught 30-plus passes last season, only junior KeAndre Lambert-Smith returns, and tight end Theo Johnson and two transfers, Cephas (Kent State) and Malik McClain (Florida State), could be asked to play big roles.
Cephas’ upside appears immense if his power-conference learning curve isn’t too steep. In 23 games over the past two seasons, he caught 130 passes at 15.3 yards per catch with nine 100-yard games. He has experience out wide and in the slot, and he could be a solid security blanket for a young QB.
12. DT Braden Fiske, Florida State
FSU’s defense improved immensely in 2022 as the Seminoles jumped from 5-7 to 10-3, but the improvement was focused mostly on the pass defense. The Noles ranked just 63rd in rushing success rate allowed, and Mike Norvell added a couple of big transfers — the 305-pound Fiske (WMU) and 326-pound Darrell Jackson Jr. (Miami) — to address the issue. Jackson’s transfer waiver request, however, was denied, putting extra pressure on Fiske and 2021 star Fabien Lovett, who’s returning from injury.
Both Fiske and Lovett could shine. Fiske recorded 11 tackles for loss and took part in 13 run stops last season, forcing two fumbles and breaking up two passes as well. He’s got excellent quickness for his size, and a power-conference star turn could be transformative for the Noles’ title hopes.
11. DE Josaiah Stewart, Michigan
For the second straight season, Michigan will be forced to replace its top two pass-rushers; after losing Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo after 2021, they lost Mike Morris (NFL) and Eyabi Okie (transfer) this offseason. No one on the roster made more than 3.5 sacks last season, and no returning end managed a pressure rate higher than 9%. (For reference, Morris’ pressure rate was 15%, Hutchinson’s 16%.)
Stewart, however, was a star at Coastal Carolina. Over the 2021-22 seasons, he recorded 16 sacks with a 12% pressure rate. His sack total sank from 12.5 to 3.5 last season, but his pressure rate remained the same, suggesting poor fortune as much as anything. If Stewart and a fellow end like Jaylen Harrell or Derrick Moore form a strong enough tandem, Michigan might not have any weaknesses.
10. DT Bear Alexander, USC
It’s hard to stand out as a Georgia defensive tackle. Alexander managed only 163 snaps in 12 games last season for the title-winning Dawgs, but in those snaps he made four tackles for loss with two sacks and two pass breakups. He averaged a havoc play (TFL, forced fumble or pass defended) on 3.7% of snaps, as high a percentage as you’ll ever see from a 315-pounder.
In almost every possible way, he was exactly what USC lacked last season. The Trojans 124th in rushing success rate allowed — shockingly bad for a team that recruits like USC. All the offensive talent in the world won’t matter if the defense doesn’t improve significantly, but landing players like Alexander and Oklahoma State linebacker Mason Cobb (26 run stops) might have been the path to significant improvement.
Other candidates: OT Jeremiah Byers, Florida State; CB Duce Chestnut, LSU; LB Mason Cobb, USC; CB Fentrell Cypress II, Florida State; DT Jordan Jefferson, LSU; QB Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin
Quarterbacks with a potential game-changing leap in them
9. QB Quinn Ewers, Texas
In his first three games as a Longhorn — which included games against Alabama and Oklahoma — Ewers completed 69% of his passes for 648 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions and only one sack. It seemed he was well on his way to stardom, but the rest of 2022 was full of potholes. In tight losses to Oklahoma State and TCU, he completed 41% of his passes with four INTs. He ended the year 97th in raw QBR in the fourth quarter and 104th on third downs. He played a big role in both Texas’ brightest moments and late-game collapses.
He’ll have no excuses in 2023. His receiving corps features star Xavier Worthy and key transfers Adonai Mitchell (Georgia) and Isaiah Neyor (Wyoming). His entire line returns. If he can’t take advantage of his surroundings, someone else will finish the year as starter.
8. QB Jayden Daniels, LSU (No. 25 in 2022)
“Daniels is ungovernable,” I wrote last year about the scramble-heavy Arizona State transfer. But within Mike Denbrock’s evidently very governable system, Daniels led an offense that ranked sixth in success rate (third rushing, 14th passing) — and grabbed an unexpected SEC West title — while still scrambling both frequently and quite well.
2:14
LSU’s Daniels discusses expectations, personal goals
Jayden Daniels explains why the Tigers will carry a target on their back, while also detailing his offseason focus of growing as a vocal leader.
The Tigers defied all expectations last season, but said expectations were low. LSU will start 2023 as a borderline top-five team, and Daniels might still need to prove he’s got one more gear as a passer, particularly in the big-play department. LSU was 6-0 when he averaged at least 7 yards per dropback last season but only 4-4 when he didn’t. Can Daniels and young pass catchers Malik Nabers and tight end Mason Taylor come through a little more consistently?
7. QB Jordan Travis, Florida State
If Daniels isn’t the most transfixing dual-threat QB in the country, Travis is. The senior picks his spots more in the scrambling department but is still ultra-dangerous, and after a midseason Seminole funk he was one of the best quarterbacks in the country late in 2022. Actually, according to Total QBR, he was the best from Week 8 onward (he had a 91.1), ahead of even Stetson Bennett (89.8), Caleb Williams (88.1) and Bryce Young (85.8). He mixed increasing pass efficiency with ever-dangerous legs, and FSU went unbeaten after Oct. 15.
With Travis and Trey Benson in the backfield, FSU’s run game should be as good as ever. And with Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman joining Johnny Wilson in the receiving corps, the passing game might have even more upside if Travis’ late-year form is sustainable.
6. QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (No. 4 in 2022)
Jim Harbaugh took a major risk in 2022, benching a known commodity and solid QB in Cade McNamara (who led Michigan to the Big Ten title and CFP in 2021) for a higher-upside but less experienced option in McCarthy. But the former top-25 recruit made the gamble pay off, winning his first 12 starts and finishing 16th in Total QBR.
Sixteenth is good, but is it national-title good? Over the past four seasons, the title-winning quarterback has averaged a 91.4 Total QBR, completing 72% of his passes at 14.2 yards per completion. McCarthy in 2022: 79.1 Total QBR, 65% completion rate, 13.1 yards per completion. He came up big in the last three games of the season (57% completion rate, but at 17.8 yards per completion). Was that a sign of things to come?
New starting quarterbacks for potential contenders
We might not know the order for sure, but we know what the top four teams will be in next week’s preseason AP poll: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Alabama. But one of the most interesting potential subplots of 2023 is three of those four teams will have both new starting quarterbacks and new offensive coordinators. That doesn’t have to mean anything substantial — new starters win national titles and Heismans pretty frequently in this day and age, and whoever starts for Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia will be a semi-recent blue-chip recruit — but it’s an opportunity for a misstep. Will all three contenders weather this change appropriately?
5. QB Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe or Ty Simpson, Alabama (Buchner was No. 2 in 2022)
It was certainly a red flag that, after a spring pitting 2022 backup Milroe against redshirt freshman (and top-40 recruit) Simpson, Nick Saban and new coordinator Tommy Rees elected to bring in Buchner from the transfer portal. Rees worked with Buchner at Notre Dame, but only briefly thanks to a shoulder injury that cost Buchner all but four games.
We know Milroe is incredibly mobile, we know Buchner has massive upside (which he flashed amid some spectacular catastrophes last season), and we know Simpson has both mobility and a big arm. We don’t know who the best option for Bama is yet, though. Do Saban and Rees?
4. QB Kyle McCord or Devin Brown, Ohio State
Spring practice also didn’t seem to bring finality to the Ohio State QB search. Heading into the fall, McCord seems to be the favorite. A former top-90 recruit, he completed 41 of 58 passes for 606 yards with three touchdowns as C.J. Stroud’s backup.
The glitches were just frequent enough (two interceptions, four sacks) to raise an eyebrow, but let’s face it: Even with a new coordinator (Brian Hartline), either he or Brown will be inheriting one of the easiest QB jobs in FBS. He’ll have Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka out wide and a loaded stable of backs beside him. This will probably work out fine, but “probably” isn’t “definitely.”
3. QB Carson Beck, Georgia
No one can accuse Beck of being impatient. He waited his turn for two years behind Bennett, throwing 58 passes in mop-up duty. He showed discernible improvement between 2021 (44% completion rate, 7.3 yards per dropback) and 2022 (74%, 8.8), but it was all in garbage time. Will he and new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo form the tandem required after Bennett and Todd Monken set such a high bar last year? Georgia will roll through most of 2023, but Bennett still had to come through in key moments, and Beck will, too.
New starting QBs for potential contenders with a potential game-changing leap and shots at lots of contenders
2. QB Drew Allar, Penn State
James Franklin and his Nittany Lions have been in pursuit of the Big Ten’s big dogs for a while. Since winning the Big Ten in 2016, PSU has won 11 games three times, but it has lost six straight to Ohio State, and after winning three of four against Michigan, it has lost twice to a suddenly CFP-bound Wolverines team too. They went 11-2 last year — 0-2 OSU/Michigan and 11-0 against everyone else.
The Nittany Lions need to find a smidgen more upside, in other words. You know, the kind that a blue-chip, throw-it-over-the-moon quarterback can deliver. The cannon-armed Allar likely takes over, and with other spectacular sophomores around him — Singleton and Allen in the backfield, Abdul Carter at linebacker — he’ll set about trying to close the gap. At worst, PSU’s a potential spoiler for either the Buckeyes or Wolverines in 2023. At best, the Nittany Lions are contenders.
1. QB Joe Milton III, Tennessee
It couldn’t be anyone else. Milton gets a third chance to become a star after misfiring at Michigan in 2020 and Tennessee in 2021, and whether he succeeds or fails — whether Tennessee becomes a potential Georgia or Alabama spoiler or an outright SEC favorite — we’ll know why.
If he still takes too many sacks and toes the wrong side of the line between patience and slow decision-making, he’ll probably end the year on the bench behind five-star freshman Nico Iamaleava. But if he’s firing quickly to Ramel Keyton, Bru McCoy and Squirrel White and fully harnessing the explosiveness of both Josh Heupel’s offense and his own right arm — he’s almost certainly got the strongest arm in college football — then the sky’s the limit for Tennessee. Forget spoiler talk and put them in the national title conversation.
No pressure, Joe.