When Portugal wingers Rodrigo Marta and Raffaele Storti shot down the right touchline with only minutes to spare against Fiji, the former taking an inside pass from his teammate to set up a match-winning conversion for scrum-half Samuel Marques, Rugby World Cup 2023 had a second underdog story it had been craving.
Os Lobos had already pushed both Wales and Australia, and drawn with Georgia, playing some of the most entertaining rugby of any nation in France along the way, and were richly deserving of their maiden World Cup win. Portugal’s attacking, sevens-style brand of rugby was so easy on the eye and left the rugby world wanting more — the only issue being no one knows exactly when that might be.
Portugal will again of course run out in the Rugby Europe Championship again next year, where they will be every chance of toppling perennial winners, Georgia, and claiming the title for only the second time in their history. But their improvement game on game in France, culminating in the pulsating win over Fiji, demands more – if they are to take the next step at a World Cup and dethrone a Tier 1 side like Australia or Wales, and threaten for a quarterfinal position, then they simply need more matches against world rugby’s top 10.
“In four matches they were able to make some progress,” Portugal’s coach Patrice Lagisquet reflected after his side’s win over Fiji. “They were lacking in the first two. Against Australia they were about to do something pretty good, but today’s match was more accomplished. What is important is the evolution of the team match after match. They play a fast game that is interesting to watch.”
Interesting indeed. Had it not been for a first-half yellow card against the Wallabies and a desperate try-saving tackle from Andrew Kellaway just before halftime, then Portugal may have come away from France with an even bigger scalp.
And the same could be said for Samoa, who also got better with each game in France, culminating in a one-point loss to Pool D winners England in a match that many thought Seilala Mapusua’s side deserved to win. Had it not been for a controversial overturned try, which the TMO scratched off after the conversion had been taken, Samoa likely would have joined Pacific brothers Fiji in registering a victory over Tier 1 opposition.
“There is a lot to have a look at in terms of getting here – once we were here, it’s not a coincidence that we’re playing our best by the fourth game,” Mapusua reflected on Samoa’s campaign. “We seriously need to look at our programme, the exposure we can get to these tough matches against Tier 1 teams. There’s a lot of work to do, but we’ll look at tomorrow, tomorrow.”
Speaking at the weekly Rugby World Cup media briefing, World Rugby chairman Bill Beaumont hinted that too much change before the next World Cup in Australia would not be possible. He instead suggested that by 2031, when the tournament will be held in the United States, it was reasonable to expect an increase in Tier 2 upsets.
“I want to assure everyone that the likes of Portugal. Samoa, Tonga, Uruguay, Chile and Georgia may be gone, but they are certainly not forgotten,” Beaumont said.
“We must and will do everything we can to provide greater certainty and opportunity of regular high-level competition for these teams. They are central to our discussions on a reimagined international calendar that will benefit the many, not the few.
“This, in turn, will enable us to arrive at Rugby World Cup 2031 in the United States anticipating a genuinely competitive and unpredictable Rugby World Cup which is great for fans, broadcasters and commercial partners.”
Those same countries will find it hard to buy Beaumont’s claims that the reimagined international calendar will “benefit the many, not the few,” after the announcement earlier this year that a new Nations Championship is planned for kick-off in 2026.
The tournament will bring together the Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams, and then likely Japan and Fiji, in a series of matches during the July and November Test windows, with the top nation from each hemisphere then meeting in a final to determine the competition’s winner.
The tournament would be staged every two years outside of World Cups and British & Irish Lions tours but would be ring-fenced until at least 2030 with no promotion or relegation planned beforehand.
That is good news for the likes of Fiji and Japan, but not so much Georgia, Portugal, Samoa or even Uruguay, who also produced some entertaining rugby in France, headlined by their 25-12 loss to the tournament hosts.
As for possible Test matches outside the planned Nations Championship, or even beforehand, there is the not-so-small matter of money to consider. When Australia, South Africa and New Zealand head north at the end of the year, they are compensated for their Tests against England, Ireland, France and co., and the same happens when the Six Nations teams head south in July.
Each union recognizes the need to boost its own coffers by hosting big-time opposition as a means of bankrolling their own rugby operations, which is perhaps best reflected in the fact the Welsh Rugby Union often stage an additional Test outside of World Rugby’s November window, just to ensure it can keep the game afloat.
Unfortunately for the likes of Portugal and Georgia, they are unable to offer the princely sums that come through ticket sales for matches against the All Blacks or Springboks, so it makes it very hard for those teams to accept a Test against those Tier 2 unions as it means forgoing a hefty and important chunk of their bottom line.
And Portugal’s outgoing coach Lagisquet knows it.
“Uruguay and Chile are showing great skills. [Head coach] Pablo Lemoine did a great job with Chile,” Lagisquet said. “In rugby one needs to play against high-level teams to flourish. I would say the great nations need to make money and to fill the stadium. I’m not sure if France v Portugal will fill the stadium…maybe that’s not the right example because there a lot of Portuguese in France.
“Even though there is a will from World Rugby there is an economic reality. The Tier 1 nations cannot play two, three or four matches in a row [against so-called tier-two nations] and that’s what these nations would need.”
There is seemingly no perfect solution, or even a remotely serviceable one, to make Tier 1 vs. Tier 2 matches in between World Cups more appealing, at least financially, before the rugby world regroups in Australia in four years’ time.
There is ongoing debate around whether the tournament will grow to 24 teams in 2027, but World Rugby does not appear interested in the concept of a plate competition for those teams that do not make the Round of 16, as is the plan in one of the formats being discussed.
But it is not all bad news on the Tier 2 front either. Fresh reports coming out of France suggest Fiji could be added to the Rugby Championship as early as next year, with their upset of Australia and progression to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2007 no doubt putting pressure on SANZAAR to expand its flagship competition.
The introduction of the Fijian Drua to Super Rugby Pacific has already paid huge dividends on field for Fiji, with now Flying Fijians coach Simon Raiwalui having done a marvellous job to first overhaul the country’s pathways as high performance manager, and since with the national team itself.
And perhaps that’s where the secret lies for Samoa and Tonga, too, who must look for greater “on-island” representation for Moana Pasifika, after Miracle Fai’iIagi became the first player to move from Samoa to Moana and then into the Test squad this year.
Despite their loss to Portugal and another close shave with Georgia, Fiji have shown what can be achieved through smart management, an increase in resources and their obvious playing talent; a win over England this weekend, which would be their second over Steve Borthwick’s side in the space of three months, would only further solidify their Rugby Championship claims.
It would also be a major shot in the arm for World Rugby’s own claims that it is committed to fostering the progression of Tier 2 teams and its desire for a “genuinely competitive and unpredictable World Cup in 2031.”
But apart from further Fijian improvement, or more one-off heroics from Portugal and possibly Samoa, it appears the 2027 tournament will, sadly, once again resemble its historical status quo.