Grading the Patrick Kane signing for the Detroit Red Wings

The most notable free agent remaining to sign during the 2023-24 NHL season has chosen a team. Patrick Kane is joining the Detroit Red Wings, by way of a one-year, $2.75 million contract.

Where does he fit in the Red Wings’ lineup? Does the deal make sense for where the Red Wings are in their process of building up into a contender again?

Here’s our take on answering both questions — as well as an overall grade for the deal.

Where does he fit?

Entering unrestricted free agency for the first time, Patrick Kane had several conversations with other NHL teams regarding his next stop. About his hip resurfacing surgery. About their ability to contend for a Stanley Cup. About lineup opportunities.

For example, one of the prime selling points for the Florida Panthers — besides how nice the weather in South Florida would feel on a mended hip, no doubt — was that Kane would be slotted to play on the right side of Aleksander Barkov. Not a bad place to be, considering Barkov has generated more than a point per game in five of the past six seasons.

One imagines that Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman had similar conversations about lineup fit. He could offer Kane something tangible and familiar: The chance to play in their top six, and potentially together with former teammate Alex DeBrincat.

Detroit’s second line has most recently featured DeBrincat, center J.T. Compher and winger Michael Rasmussen, who has two goals and four points in 20 games. That line has just a 39.8% expected goals percentage together, per Evolving Hockey. They’ve tried other combinations to find a reliable second scoring unit behind Dylan Larkin‘s top line. That Kane and DeBrincat could create one was undoubtedly part of the math here.

They were frequent linemates with the Chicago Blackhawks, playing the majority of their 5-on-5 time together from 2019-20 to 2021-22. During that span, the Blackhawks were a plus-11 in goal differential and averaged 3.1 goals per 60 minutes when they were paired, per Natural Stat Trick. They also had tremendous chemistry on the power play, where the Hawks averaged 7.6 goals per 60 minutes during that span. Kane without DeBrincat averaged just 3.67 goals per 60 minutes on the power play.

Now, given the layoff and the nature of Kane’s offseason surgery, there are no guarantees. The Wings might not even showcase “Showtime” in their top six or top power-play unit to start. Frankly, that’d be the best thing for Kane’s comfortable landing in Detroit and a winning team’s continued good chemistry.

But in an ideal situation, reuniting Kane with DeBrincat — who has 12 goals and eight assists in 20 games after coming over from the Ottawa Senators in the offseason — at even strength and the power play is an essential part of the Yzerplan.

It should be noted that the Yzerplan, as a whole, is about rebuilding a championship-caliber team. They’ve turned the corner this season, sitting third in the Atlantic Division at 11-6-3 with a .625 points percentage. Yzerman has smartly added veteran players in the past two seasons to supplement a young core, including some with Stanley Cup championship experience in David Perron and Compher.

Kane won three Cups with the Blackhawks and has played 127 postseason games. That can only benefit a team that’s largely still finding its footing as a contender.

Does the deal make sense?

This is what Kane wanted. An NHL source told me that Kane had multi-year offers on the table from other teams. But Kane and his representatives wanted a one-year deal and a chance to reevaluate his next steps after this season.

This signing’s success is almost entirely contingent on what kind of player Patrick Kane is after major hip surgery.

Kane is six months out from undergoing hip resurfacing surgery. Anyone who watched a minute of him last season could see him laboring, although he still managed 21 goals and 36 points in 73 games between the Blackhawks and New York Rangers. Kane was particularly upset that he couldn’t muster a better effort in the Blueshirts’ playoff loss to the New Jersey Devils.

“Personally, I look at that series and I know if I felt a little bit better, I can help us win that series,” he said. “So it’s a little disappointing and depressing in a way.”

So he’s got something to prove.

The target for his return has been late November and early December, so he hit that. But there’s still the question of how effective he can be as an NHL player after hip resurfacing.

Defenseman Ed Jovanovski underwent 10 months of rehabilitation after his 2013 procedure, then played in 36 NHL games before retiring. Forward Ryan Kesler never played again after his hip resurfacing in 2019. Nicklas Backstrom played 47 games over parts of two seasons, generating 22 points, before stepping away from the Washington Capitals in November, citing ongoing issues with his surgically repaired left hip.

Obviously, technologies can improve and not every surgery result portends what the next rehabilitation will yield. But those are the facts — and one of the reasons why this is only a one-year deal in Detroit.

The Red Wings have been impressive. Coach Derek Lalonde has them fourth in the NHL in goals per game, so it’s not like they need vintage Patrick Kane to carry them. They can probably weather 75% Patrick Kane, like we saw at times last season. Maybe even 50% Patrick Kane. In Motor City terms, he’s an aftermarket add-on to a car you already really like.

For the Red Wings, it makes sense to add more pop to their right side and to their power play, which is ninth in the NHL.

But perhaps more importantly, this is a tacit endorsement of their playoff potential.

Kane’s agent, Pat Brisson, told me during the Kane courtship that his client wanted to play for a Stanley Cup contender: “There’s going to be plenty of teams doing good, plenty of teams doing bad. We’ll pick where we want to go. I don’t think too many teams will turn him down.”

Clearly Kane sees Detroit as a team with staying power.

Obviously, this is going to be a jolt for Blackhawks fans. Even though the Rangers were a buffer between stops, this is still an iconic Chicago star signing to play for a team in Detroit. Visions of Mike Modano swapping his Dallas Stars jersey for the Winged Wheel are inescapable — although hopefully Detroit works out better for Kane than it did for Mo.

But the reality for Blackhawks fans is that Kane hasn’t signed with “the enemy,” but rather that he’s entered his late-career stage. It happens to a lot of superstars: Jaromir Jagr played for six teams in six seasons before leaving the NHL. Jarome Iginla was the face of the Calgary Flames before he ended his career as a Penguin, a Bruin, an Avalanche and a King. He’s not a traitor. He’s an opportunist.

But oh boy, that first game between the Patrick Kane Red Wings and the Connor Bedard Blackhawks? Talk about Showtime.

Grade: B+

Taken at face value, the Red Wings signed a right wing who had 57 points last season in 73 games for $2.75 million against their cap. Looking at the players around that output last season who were UFA-eligible, there wasn’t one who earned less than $4 million against the cap. In a statistical vacuum, that’s a win.

But Kane isn’t a name on a roster. He’s a 35-year-old superstar coming off a type of surgery that has yet to produce extraordinary results for an NHL player — to the point where one such player literally walked away from the game this season because he was so ineffective. The Wings are rolling. There is room for improvement. Does Kane hurt more than he helps?

It’s a low-risk move based on term and cap hit. It doesn’t significantly impact the Red Wings’ ability to add more at the trade deadline. If Kane can’t answer the bell, there’s always long-term injured reserve. They also benefit from Kane’s contract not being an “over-35” deal, as he turned 35 after July 1 — hence the lack of bonus money.

Overall, a good landing spot for Kane and a gamble for the Red Wings that’s not going to bust a promising season.