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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The NHL’s 2023-24 regular season is nearing its midway point, offering as many surprises off the ice as in the standings.
(Seriously: If the league wants the regular season to be a series of highlight-reel goals and serial drama among players and teams, followed by the single greatest postseason tournament in organized sports, hockey will be doing pretty good for itself.)
There will be more surprises in the backstretch of the season, and we’ll try to predict some of them with another batch of bold predictions in the second half for all 32 teams. Enjoy!
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Prediction: Bruins lose in the first round — again
Enough can’t be said about the job coach Jim Montgomery has done with this Bruins team, building up fractured psyches and relying on the bedrock of its goaltending to contend for the President’s Trophy again.
But under the hood, some of Boston’s numbers are very un-Bruins-like, from puck possession to expected goals percentage to percentage of scoring chances at 5-on-5. It’s enough to have me worried about a first-round series against another underdog wild-card team like Florida was last season — or a first-round matchup against a Toronto team that finally exorcized its first-round demon last season and would love to do the same with their Boston phobia in the playoffs.
Prediction: Assistant coaches pay, not Don Granato
Despite the Sabres potentially finishing outside the playoffs for a 13th consecutive season — and likely declining in points percentage year over year — indications around the team are that coach Don Granato is expected to get another kick at the can in 2024-25. But when a maligned coach is kept around, and dramatically reshaping the roster isn’t really an option, the most time-tested move is to fire the assistants.
One imagines they’ll be replaced by someone with previous NHL head coaching experience — and perhaps with an expertise in power-play efficiency!
Prediction: Simon Edvinsson is a difference-maker down the stretch
The Swede was the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft. Everyone selected in front of him has at least 40 games played in the NHL, with New Jersey rookie Luke Hughes having the lowest total games. Edvinsson has played 11 NHL games, including a brief two games earlier this season. With the Red Wings in the bottom third of the NHL in expected goals against at 5-on-5 since Dec. 1, they could use a lift on their blue line. Why not get one from a 6-foot-4 defenseman?
Prediction: Cats win the President’s Trophy
The Panthers were able to be within reach of first place in the NHL despite Matthew Tkachuk scoring only eight goals in 39 games … and then he had 11 goals in 40 games after popping off after a four-point night against the Blues on Tuesday. Imagine how good they’ll be if his goal scoring catches fire? Especially considering that the real story of Florida’s season has been defense: Third in the league in goals against average (2.48) through 40 games.
Money Puck projects them to finish with 109.4 points, which is around three points lower than its projection for the Jets. But the Panthers are right there, and should continue to thrive when some of the hangers-on in the East start to raise the white flag.
Prediction: Lane Hutson scores at a point-per-game pace
When Boston University’s season ends, it’s expected that Hutson’s NHL career will begin. Listed at 5-foot-10, Hutson is a fantastic skater and puck mover. The No. 62 overall pick in 2022, he was an offensive star in college and for the U.S. in international play. Montreal might ease him into the lineup rather than drop him into the fray like the Devils did with Luke Hughes and the Avalanche did with Cale Makar, but it won’t matter: Hutson will play to a point-per-game pace, giving fans a tantalizing look at what’s ahead.
Prediction: Sens will trade a player with contract term
That newly minted GM Steve Staios will trade players off of this roster is not a bold prediction in itself. The Senators stink and he has some veterans players on expiring contracts like Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik who will almost certainly be moved for something in a lost season.
The real question is whether Staios will cut deeper than that. Does he have a conversation with Claude Giroux about the state of the franchise? Does he get ahead of Jakob Chychrun potentially walking away after next season by trading him now? Does he dare chip away at a core that hasn’t won anything together, with players like Josh Norris and Drake Batherson? Here’s saying he does something significant for a franchise that needs a shot in the arm.
Prediction: Steven Stamkos re-signs
It’s messy. One never wants to see a team captain lament the lack of contract talks before a season and then see his general manager take a “wait and see” approach with those talks, citing organizational needs that could be difficult to fulfill if said captain gets another rich contract. But Stamkos is still a point-per-game player. The Lightning aren’t what they were in the Cup-winning heyday, but they still have the rest of the core locked up through next season, after which Victor Hedman is an unrestricted free agent.
Although Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews just proved to be the exception to the rule of “hang on to your franchise legends,” Stamkos is a multi-time Cup champion and a franchise icon who should only wear the Bolt during his probable Hall of Fame career. Also, his stuff is there. And that’s always the determining factor in NHL free agency.
Prediction: Auston Matthews scores 70 goals
The last 70-goal season in the NHL was in 1992-93, when Teemu Selanne and perpetual Hall of Fame snub Alexander Mogilny both scored 76 goals. The great goal scorers of the last 20 years like Alex Ovechkin (65 goals), Connor McDavid (64 goals) and Stamkos (60 goals) couldn’t repeat the feat. Through 36 games, Matthews was on pace for around 67 goals with a 0.83 goals per game average. It’ll be close, and might depend on where the Leafs are in the standings as the season plays out, but we say he does it.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
Prediction: Canes win the Metro Division
The Hurricanes had a four-game losing streak in mid-December that left them at 14-12-1 and outside of a playoff seed. Since then, they’re third in the NHL in points percentage, steadily climbing up the standings in the East. They’re doing it the Rod Brind’Amour way: Limiting opponents defensively so as not to expose their leaky goaltending, and relying on some of their best offensive players to carry the day in Sebastian Aho (24 points in 13 games), Andrei Svechnikov (15 points in 9 games) and Brent Burns (10 points in 13 games).
With the Rangers wobbling a little bit, the Hurricanes stay steady and take the Metro.
Prediction: Total regime change
You have to feel for Pascal Vincent, who was thrust in to the head coaching role just days before training camp because of Mike Babcock’s abrupt dismissal. He had waited years for the chance. The team he took over was an ill-fitting collection of underachieving veterans and promising young players; a collection of parts whose sum ended up being a points percentage under .427.
GM Jarmo Kekalainen said he would be judged by the team’s on-ice performance rather than the Babcock situation. Both ended up being a total mess. This is going to be a desirable GM spot if it opens up, given the presence of Adam Fantilli, defenseman David Jiricek and winger Kent Johnson. If Jarmo is out and a new GM comes in, it might sadly be one-and-done for Vincent.
Prediction: Dougie Hamilton doesn’t go on LTIR
Hamilton hasn’t played for the Devils since Nov. 28, when he tore his pectoral muscle in a game against the New York Islanders. It’s an injury that could have him out for the regular season, which immediately sparked speculation that the Devils would be the next Nikita Kucherov/Vegas Golden Knights situation where they park his cap hit on long-term injured reserve and utilize his $9 million cap hit for reinforcements.
But here’s a theory why they might not. First, there’s no defenseman or defensemen that can sufficiently replace what Hamilton gives them. If he’s able to come back before the playoffs, that’s the best option to help their blue line — they’re not going to block that return by having his cap space spoken for. Second, while there’s impatience from fans after last season’s breakout, the Devils are still playing the long game. Letting players like defensemen Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, as well as goalies Nico Daws and Akira Schmid, continue to gain experience rather than take a back seat to imported veterans might make a difference down the line.
Prediction: Isles miss the playoffs
Our Lane Lambert-o-meter is broken. The fans wanted him gone earlier this season. Then the team won nine of 12 games to shoot up the standings in the East. But since that point, the Islanders have been a .500 team, and one that has struggled defensively in front of Ilya Sorokin, who has improved as the season has gone on.
Getting Adam Pelech back helps, as well other improved health on the blue line. But since mid-December, they’ve been near the bottom of the league in puck possession and expected goals against. They’re the Islanders. They vacuum up loser points. They’ll hang tough. But ultimately, they’ll end up just outside of the postseason picture.
Prediction: Blueshirts trade for top-six winger
The top line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider could use a right wing. Blake Wheeler wasn’t the answer there. Kaapo Kakko could be when he returns from injury. But the Rangers added two wingers at the deadline last season in Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, and should dabble again this season.
The problem: Outside of a Tarasenko reunion, which isn’t out of the question, there aren’t many tantalizing wingers that would be available with expiring contracts. Do the Rangers add a player with some term?
Prediction: Jamie Drysdale, healthy scratch
After trading disgruntled prospect Cutter Gauthier to the Ducks, Flyers GM Danny Briere said newly acquired defenseman Jamie Drysdale was going to have “an adjustment period” going from the way the Ducks play to the way the Flyers play. Which essentially means: Welcome to John Tortorella’s world, kid.
The Flyers coach has famously been a tough love guy to young players, trying to get his team to play “the right way.” One of his tactics has been the occasional healthy scratch to get their attention. We imagine he’ll try and get the 21-year-old Drysdale’s attention before the season’s out.
Prediction: Penguins make the playoffs
Money Puck gives the Penguins a better than 80% chance of making the postseason cut, but some nights it feels like 50/50 at best. Some games, the Penguins can play a cohesive defensive game and rely on their big name players to provide enough offense for a ‘W.’ Other games, parts of the machine malfunction, like a power play that still isn’t consistent despite its All-Star talent.
Those latter games are becoming less frequent lately. If they continue to get good goaltending from Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry, and some trade deadline augmentation from GM Kyle Dubas, they’ll make the cut in the East.
Prediction: Caps add at the trade deadline
Goaltending alone will likely keep the Capitals in the playoff hunt around the trade deadline. If they’re close, GM Brian MacLellan will undoubtedly try to bolster to team in an effort to get Washington back to the playoffs after missing last season. They have some draft capital to play with, having three second-round picks in 2025. Maybe it’s a rental. Maybe someone with term. Undoubtedly it will be a forward, given their depth on the blue line.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Prediction: A new arena plan satisfies the NHL
It’s pretty clear that the NHL had its confidence in the Coyotes’ future shaken after the voters of Tempe shot down the team’s arena proposal last year. It’s also clear that NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has spent over a decade trying to find a solution to keep the league in that market.
So, bold prediction: The Coyotes present the Board of Governors with a plan to build an arena district in northeast Phoenix, without the necessity of a public vote. It’s enough for the league to keep the Coyotes in the market, leaving places like Salt Lake City and Houston waiting for the next round of expansion.
Prediction: Connor Bedard still wins the Calder despite injury
The Blackhawks’ rookie sensation was a unanimous choice to win the Calder Trophy in our latest Awards Watch … and then he broke his jaw on a hit from Devils defenseman Brendan Smith three days later. The prognosis for Bedard is that he could miss a month to six weeks. That might give Marco Rossi or Adam Fantilli enough time to catch him in the goals or points race; or it might give Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber the spotlight as a top rookie, as he’s skating 24:48 per game and playing brilliantly.
But Bedard could miss 20 games and he’s still got this. The last time we saw a Calder favorite felled by injury was Connor McDavid in 2015-16, when he was limited to 45 games and was eclipsed by Artemi Panarin (CHI) and Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI) in the voting. Panarin’s 30-goal season trumped McDavid’s points-per-game pace. There might not be another forward that posts those kinds of numbers this season. Bedard should still win.
Prediction: Avs trade for Elias Lindholm
Sometimes when there are enough whispers, eventually it gets shouted from the rooftops. Eventually when there’s enough smoke, there are flames — or, in this case, Calgary Flames. They have a pending unrestricted free agent in Elias Lindholm who might be the most coveted center available as the deadline approaches. If he’s moving on, then the Flames are moving him out.
Colorado has been linked to him for the better part of the season. He’s an essential fit behind Nathan MacKinnon on the depth chart for one of the West’s top contenders.
Prediction: Stars trade for a right-side defenseman
The Stars are hanging tough in the Central despite injuries and ineffectiveness from goaltender Jake Oettinger. They now face a week-to-week lower-body injury to defenseman Miro Heiskanen. When they’re at their best, the Stars are among the NHL’s best. But there’s one puzzle piece that could still snap in place before the postseason, and that’s on the right side of their defense.
They have Heiskanen, Jani Hakanpaa, Joel Hanley and Nils Lundkvist. GM Jim Nill loves his internal solutions. But with players like Chris Tanev and Sean Walker potentially available around the deadline, perhaps he looks outside the organization, too.
Prediction: Wild have two Calder finalists
The injury to Bedard does shake up the NHL rookie of the year race. But even if the Blackhawks’ phenom wasn’t injured, there was a chance the Wild would snag two of the other finalists spots anyway.
Defenseman Brock Faber, who’s playing the minutes of a 10-year veteran, was the second choice on most voters’ ballots in our last Awards Watch. Marco Rossi was second to Bedard in points, tied with Fantilli. Those two players will be right in the mix for the award. Despite Fantilli, Luke Hughes of the Devils and some other stellar rookies, it might end up getting two Wild for the Calder.
Prediction: Preds make the playoffs
This was a bold prediction from before the season started and we’re not jumping off of this horse. At this point is pretty clear that the Pacific Division is going to send four teams to the postseason, what with the resurrection of the Edmonton Oilers after their terrible start. Nashville has maintained a playoff seed despite not getting the elite goaltending they expect from Juuse Saros and an offense that has a much higher expected goals per 60 minutes than their actual results at 5-on-5.
In other words, coach Andrew Brunette has his team in a playoff spot without seeing its fastball yet.
Prediction: Robert Thomas is the only player to hit 60 points
The last time the Blues had only one player top 60 points was in 2016-17, when Vladimir Tarasenko had 75 points in a season where the team changed coaches. Well, they changed coaches again this season and only have one breakout scorer in Thomas (41 points in 39 games). Pavel Buchnevich could come close and there’s always the chance Jordan Kyrou shoots higher than 6.8% in the second half. But right now, it looks like Thomas will be the team’s only offensive highlight in a season full of lowlights.
Prediction: Jets go all-in for a center
The analytics community was ahead of the curve on the Jets. We mentioned they were a lock for the playoffs — before they ascended to the top of the league standings — because they are an absolute wagon defensively in front of one of the best goaltenders on the planet in Connor Hellebuyck. They’re also a top 10 offensive team.
But the puzzle isn’t yet complete. They essentially have Mark Scheifele, Vladislav Namestnikov and Adam Lowry in the middle, with Cole Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi also available in the pivot. Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has dabbled at the deadline before. If he feels the Jets are real, getting an impact center is imperative.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Prediction: Mason McTavish leads team in goals
Frank Vatrano is the Internet’s favorite player, with 18 goals in 39 games, and at least that many appearances on podcasts this season. He’s a great story and had a seven-goal lead on McTavish, who’s played seven fewer games, as of Monday night.
But we’re thinking McTavish eventually passes him. To Vatrano’s credit, he averages about 2.5 shots more per 60 minutes than McTavish. But the young center has an individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 0.94 through 32 games, which is the best mark on the Ducks. He has a 12.3% shooting percentage at 5-on-5. Check that rearview, Frankie V.
Prediction: Flames trade Lindholm and Tanev, keep Hanifin
Noah Hanifin is one of those players where you forget he hasn’t been traded yet, given how “close” a deal has been at various times in the last year. He’s one of a handful of pending unrestricted free agents for the Flames to consider moving before the summer, a list that most prominently features Lindholm and Tanev. Those two players and Hanifin could all bring back handsome returns for GM Craig Conroy … but will all three get traded?
The prediction: Lindholm and Tanev are shipped out at the deadline but Hanifin — who turns 27 on Jan. 25 — is extended on a long-term deal.
Prediction: Zach Hyman scores 50 goals
There are few free agent signings in recent years that have worked out better than the Oilers inking Hyman in 2021. He has 88 goals and 89 assists in 190 games with Edmonton, including 25 goals in 35 games this season. Granted, there are a lot of guys that’ll post sterling stats if they play the majority of their ice time with Connor McDavid, as Hyman has over the last three seasons, who has an on-ice goals per 60 minutes average of 4.19 with McDavid and 2.76 without him.
But Hyman earned that spot, kept that spot and has produced in that spot. The odds are against him scoring 50 goals this season, but it seems like Connor’s in a sharing mood.
Prediction: Another first-round exit costs Todd McLellan his job
The Kings have hit a major bump in their road to the playoffs as of late, going 3-4-3 in their last 10 games. Once again, their underlying numbers tell you this team has the stuff of a champion, ranking second in 5-on-5 puck possession and expected goals percentage through 37 games. But if they make the dance and lose again in the first round for the third straight season — against Edmonton or anyone else — could that be it for McLellan after five seasons?
He’s signed through 2024-25 on a one-year extension the team handed him in October. But given the ticking clock on the team’s veteran core — Anze Kopitar is signed through 2025-26 — could McLellan pay the price if the team doesn’t see the second round?
Prediction: Sharks finish the season under 2.00 goals per game
Through 40 games, the Sharks had a team goals-against average of 4.03. That’s terrible, but not uncommon in NHL history. Since the “expansion era” started in 1967-68, there have been 109 teams that finished with a goals-against average of 4.00 or higher. (Because the 1980s happened, you see.)
More notably, the Sharks were averaging 2.00 goals per game offensively. Now that’s rare: Just three teams in that era have finished with a goals-for average under two goals per game. Incredibly, two of them played in the last decade: The Buffalo Sabres in 2013-14 and 2014-15. Those teams were a special kind of awful, part of a scorched-earth rebuild … kinda like the one the Sharks are undergoing. Their goal is the No. 1 pick. Not scoring many can help them get there.
Prediction: Joey Daccord is a Vezina finalist
The Kraken have rocketed up the standings since around mid-December on the strength of Winter Classic hero Joey Daccord. On the season, he has a .923 save percentage and a 2.28 goals against average. During their recent winning streak, the Kraken were 10th in expected goals against at 5-on-5 and first in actual goals against at 5-on-5 — that’s Daccord.
He’s a great story. There’s going to be a lot of competition for the Vezina and he doesn’t have the same name recognition as a lot of the other candidates, but it’ll be hard to ignore him if he keeps this up.
Prediction: Canucks win the West
Through 40 games, the Canucks were the best offensive team in the NHL and fourth overall in team defense. On Monday, they had J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson all hit 50 points through 40 games — only the third team to do so in the last 30 years. Coach Rick Tocchet has created a wagon in the Pacific Division, from Thatcher Demko in goal through Brock Boeser‘s goal scoring tear. Vancouver hasn’t been to the Stanley Cup Final since 2011. If they can keep these critical players healthy — which is a significant caveat that could shatter these dreams — the Canucks could play for the Chalice again.
Emphasis on “could.” I’m on the record as saying that the Oilers won’t just win the West but will win the Stanley Cup, and I’m still on that pick now they they’re not an abject embarrassment any longer. But if it’s not the Oil, I think it’s the ‘Nucks.
Prediction: Knights stand pat at the deadline
Normally, this wouldn’t be a bold prediction for a team still happy after a Stanley Cup championship. But these are the Vegas Golden Knights we’re talking about, who never met an upgrade they couldn’t go after at the deadline. But given what they’ve done, where they are and the decisions they might have to make with veteran unrestricted free agents in the offseason, we think the Golden Knights will play the hand they’re holding, rather uncharacteristically.