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Mike Tannenbaum, ESPN
The 2024 NFL free agent class looks solid, and team executives around the league will have options in the coming days as they scramble to plug holes in their rosters and upgrade their personnel. We’re going to see some big money flying around.
When I was an NFL exec with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, I always went into March with a few players I absolutely wanted to sign. And that was especially true when I felt a free agent would outperform his contract. It’s important to mix “splash” moves with savvy value deals.
So for a third year in a row, I’m putting on my GM hat and breaking down five current free agents I’d be targeting to sign this coming week if I were running a team. These are players who I believe can help any roster, though each team of course has its own set of needs. Here are five names I’d pursue, the deals I’d offer them and why I think each would be worth the money.
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The deal I’d offer: Three years, $120 million ($80 million guaranteed)
Yes, he will be 36 in August, and yes, he is coming off a right Achilles tendon tear. Those are obvious factors. But let’s not forget that Cousins has been incredibly productive. Despite being limited to eight games with Minnesota last season, Cousins threw 18 touchdown passes. He finished seventh in Total QBR at 63.2. He has had more than 4,200 passing yards in each of his past three full seasons, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 44-to-15 since 2020 is fifth-best in the NFL.
Simply put, Cousins is dramatically better than any other quarterback available in free agency, and when he is healthy — he recently posted video of himself throwing — he is one of the top 12 passers in the league. Not every team needs a quarterback, but he’s the top option. I’d be trying to sign him to a three-year deal with similar guarantees to the contract that Daniel Jones got in New York last March but with a lower overall per-year average to account for his age and recent injury history.
The deal I’d offer: One year, $8 million (fully guaranteed)
Henry might not be what he once was, but that’s a tough threshold to maintain for anyone. He rushed for over 2,000 yards and scored 17 TDs just four seasons ago. But now he’s 30 years old, and there’s a good chance that a team could sign him to a value deal given the running back market.
Henry was still very productive for the Titans last season, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, gaining 1,167 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns (along with 214 receiving yards). He had 23 carries for 10 or more yards. I believe he can still be a productive front-line starter.
If you’re looking for a running back this offseason, the free agent class is pretty solid. I like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler, among others. But if I can get Henry on a fully guaranteed one-year deal under $10 million, I’m jumping at that chance. And remember, the draft class lacks top-end, early-pick options at the position. So if I’m looking for help there, I’m taking care of it in March.
The deal I’d offer: One year, $15 million ($5 million guaranteed)
This is among the most fascinating free agent situations that we’ve seen in recent years. Smith has been one of the best left tackles in the NFL over the past decade — but he is 33 years old and has not played a full season since 2015.
So many teams need offensive line help, and when Smith is on the field, the 6-foot-5, 320-pound blocker is tough to get around. His pass block win rate still shows that he is a solid option, ranking 26th out of 69 tackles last season with Dallas (89.1%). And if you have a run-heavy offense, you’ll love Smith. He was fifth among tackles in run block win rate last season (79%).
I’d be in on Smith if I could get him on a short-term deal with low guarantees. Consider that his 13 games in 2023 were his most since 2019. The durability concerns are real. But if it’s a one-year deal with around $5 million guaranteed, it could be a steal.
The deal I’d offer: Three years, $36 million ($25 million guaranteed)
In my opinion, he is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. While Van Ginkel will be 29 years old in July, he has played in every game over the past four seasons, and his production is certainly under the radar.
In 2023, he had a career year, posting 69 tackles, 6 sacks, 32 pressures and 6 pass breakups — and his role expanded while filling in for the injured Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips in Miami. His 17.8% pass rush win rate and 10.7% pressure rate were both in the top 30 leaguewide, too.
Huge money will be spent on Danielle Hunter and Jonathan Greenard, but I like the upside, reliability and versatility of Van Ginkel at $12 million annually.
The deal I’d offer: One year, $10 million ($7 million guaranteed)
Wagner will be undervalued in free agency because he will be 34 years old when the 2024 season kicks off, but he appears to be ageless. He hasn’t missed a game in two years and has played in at least 15 in every season since 2014. And Wagner was actually more productive last season than he was in 2022, leading the NFL in tackles with 183. (He also had 3.5 sacks for the Seahawks.)
Not only is Wagner a great player but also a tremendous leader. If I’m running a team, I would be excited to bring him in because of his great intangibles and on-field play — even if I’m committing to only one season.