The 2024 edition of Wimbledon begins on Monday, with plenty of storylines taking center stage at the All England Club in London. Perhaps the biggest storyline heading into this week is the status of seven-time champion Novak Djokovic, who underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus on June 6. Meanwhile, Jannik Sinner (+185), the world’s top-ranked player coming into Wimbledon, is the current betting favorite to win the men’s tournament, followed by French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz (+240) and Djokovic (+350).
In the women’s tournament, Aryna Sabalenka is currently the betting favorite to win at +360, with French Open champion Iga Swiatek close behind at +400. Elena Rybakina (+550) and Coco Gauff (+650) round out the top four, while Jessica Pegula and Naomi Osaka are both listed as 18-1 long shots.
Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? ESPN’s experts break down everything thing you need to know about the 2024 Wimbledon tournament.
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Experts’ picks to win | Betting roundtable
Experts’ picks
Who do you think will win the men’s singles title, and why?
Mary Joe Fernandez: Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz is the defending champ and just won the French Open, which should give him so much confidence. His game translates to every surface, but what sets him apart on the grass courts is his incredible movement. He is very balanced and can slide if he has to. Alcaraz also is very comfortable coming forward, which is important on the grass surface.
Brad Gilbert: Jannik Sinner. On the men’s side, the biggest mystery is Novak Djokovic‘s health. Can make it through the first week so quickly after knee surgery? Sinner, Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are all on the same half of the draw, and I think a handful of players can win, but I’m going with Sinner. I would like to see a couple of Americans make the quarters, and watch for British hopeful Jack Draper to make a run.
Bill Connelly: Sinner. I could have just flipped a coin between Sinner and Alcaraz. With Djokovic trying to quickly come back from his meniscus tear, and with the fact that he wasn’t in good form all year even before the injury, they’re by far the safest bets. There are plenty of potential bracket busters out there, from Matteo Berrettini (who might actually be healthy and in decent form?) to lower seeds like Tommy Paul and Jack Draper. But Sinner and Alcaraz are the two best players in the game right now. We know Alcaraz can win Wimbledon (we saw him do it), and Sinner played himself into pretty good grass-court form in June. I’m frustrated that a potential Sinner-Alcaraz match would once again happen in a semifinal.
Tom Hamilton: Sinner. Much of this depends on Djokovic’s fitness levels. Only he truly knows how much of an issue that meniscus is. It’s remarkable that he’s even here, given he had surgery on his knee back on June 5. But Djokovic is a machine, and if he’s fully fit, then this is his tournament. If Djokovic isn’t fully fit, then it’s Sinner’s year. He reached the semifinals last year and fell to Djokovic, but he has that first Slam under his belt after winning in Australia, and if he comes through a tricky potential second-round tie with Matteo Berrettini, then Sinner can go all the way.
D’Arcy Maine: Djokovic. I know Sinner and Alcaraz are the favorites and have remarkably similar odds to win this thing, and there certainly is a case to be made for all of the other players mentioned above, but I’m just going to be bold here. Djokovic is going to thrive in the underdog role and win major title No. 25, if he remains in the draw. Sure, it seems absolutely nuts that he’s even potentially playing so soon after surgery, but, by all accounts, he has looked solid in training, and others (most notably Taylor Fritz in 2021) have come back in less time from the same procedure. There’s no shortage of motivation for Djokovic at Wimbledon this time around, with the opportunity to take sole ownership of the record for most Slam titles in history and a chance to avenge last season’s result. Tying Roger Federer for the most titles (8) at the tournament by a man? it’s hard to think Djokovic won’t find some extra fuel in being doubted. And that could be just what he needs to win his first title of the season. You know, if he plays.
Who do you think will win the women’s singles title, and why?
Fernandez: Jessica Pegula. Her aggressive, flat groundstrokes translate very well to the grass courts, as her balls skid through the surface. She won one of the warm-up events on the grass, which will give her confidence. She also didn’t play the French Open, which can work to her favor, as she will be fresh.
Connelly: Aryna Sabalenka. This thing’s wide open, isn’t it? The last two champions (Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova), plus two-time finalist Ons Jabeur and two-time semifinalist Sabalenka, all retired from their lone grass-court tournaments with either illness or injury. Queen-of-the-world Iga Swiatek, meanwhile, has never made it past the quarterfinals here, and No. 2 seed Coco Gauff has never made it past the fourth round. They’re good enough where either could make a run, but you could pick just about anyone if you wanted to. Emma Raducanu‘s grand redemption? Sure. Finally Naomi Osaka‘s time again? Absolutely. When in doubt, go with the favorite. At the moment, that’s Sabalenka. She might have to take down Emma Raducanu, Gauff (or Osaka or Madison Keys) and Swiatek/Elena Rybakina/Jabeur to win, but, if healthy, she’s more than capable.
Hamilton: Ons Jabeur. Swiatek’s opening round draw is brutal, so I think this is a toss-up between Sabalenka and Jabeur. Jabeur has been so close twice, losing in the finals in 2022 and 2023, while Sabalenka is quickly becoming the best on tour at being able to switch between surfaces. After her painful exit at Roland Garros to Mirra Andreeva while struggling with illness, Sabalenka has been working hard on grass, but she was forced to retire from her Berlin Open quarterfinal with a shoulder injury. Jabeur also retired from that tournament due to illness. But if both are back to full fitness, I think the two could meet in the final. And if that happens, it’s Jabeur’s time.
Maine: Swiatek. Are there multiple, maybe even countless, women who could win this year? Undoubtedly. And will injuries continue to be a factor? Certainly. But if I have to predict one player to win, I’m going with Swiatek. Her decision to not play in any of the lead-in events on grass is somewhat concerning but, while many of her peers suffered injuries on the surface and might not be at 100% physically, Swiatek is healthy and still brimming with confidence and momentum from her latest triumph at the French Open. Not to mention, she had her best result at Wimbledon last season by reaching the quarterfinals and said she finds it “easier every year” to adapt to grass. Swiatek seems to embrace challenges — just look at her second-round victory over Osaka in Paris for proof — and Wimbledon and its tricky surface might be her latest one to conquer.
The best bets
Who is your pick to win?
Andre Snellings: Carlos Alcaraz to win Men’s Wimbledon title (+240). Alcaraz and Sinner (+185) are separating themselves from the rest of the field. They’ve won three of the last four and four of the last seven slams between them, with Novak Djokovic (+350) winning the others. But Djokovic, at age 37, had surgery for a torn meniscus in his right knee less than a month ago, while Alcaraz and Sinner are both peaking. Alcaraz has gone 20-3 in his last 23 matches, winning both a major (French Open, on clay) and a Masters 1000 level event (Indian Wells, hardcourt) in that span. Alcaraz also beat Sinner in both of those tournament and has won four of their last six head-to-head matches. Alcaraz is the defending champion at Wimbledon, and since Sinner is the favorite, the little extra juice on Alcaraz helps solidify him as my best value pick to win the tournament.
Snellings: Coco Gauff to win Women’s Wimbledon title (+650)
Gauff’s breakthrough to win the U.S. Open last year, her first major, marked a career turning point for her. Gauff was self-admittedly struggling under the pressure and expectations her prodigy-status had generated, with her first-round loss at last season’s Wimbledon representing a low point in her career. But, since that point, Gauff has a championship and two semifinals appearances in her last three grand slams. And in both slams this season, Gauff bowed out against multi-time winners at the event that went on to win this season as well (Aryna Sabalenka at Australian Open, Iga Swiatek at French Open). There is no commensurate multi-time defending Wimbledon champion for Gauff to contend with, and after last season’s early exit, she will be motivated to make her best run in this Wimbledon. Gauff has the combination of excellent speed, strong groundstrokes and high-level defense that plays well on Wimbledon’s grass and gives her a good chance to compete for a second singles Grand Slam championship in the last year.
Who are your favorite long shots to win?
Snellings: Alexander Zverev (+1600). Zverev has been knocking on the door to win that first Grand Slam championship for several years now. Zverev has made the finals of two majors, losing both the 2020 U.S. Open and the 2024 French Open in five sets. He also has six other Grand Slam semifinals appearances, two ATP Finals championships, six Masters 1000 championships and is the defending Olympics gold medalist in men’s singles (2021). This season, Zverev has gone 27-6 in Grand Slam (11-2) and Masters 1000 (16-4) events, winning the Italian Open and making the semifinals (Australian Open) and finals (French Open) in his two slams. He also plays well on grass, going a combined 8-3 on the surface in the last two years. He is a big hitter with a giant serve and moves well for a man his size. Thought Zverev has never gone past the fourth round at Wimbledon, if he puts everything together he has the game to win the tournament.
Snellings: Ons Jabeur (+1400). I have picked Jabeur to win the last two Wimbledon tournaments, and she made the finals both years. Last season, in particular, looked like Jabeur’s breakthrough moment, as she entered the finals as a heavy favorite before getting overwhelmed by Marketa Vondrousova. But Jabeur has a game perfectly suited for grass, with a combination of excellent movement and use of angles that keeps her opponents off balance. Jabeur has had a down season overall, but her performances in the majors (second round at Australian Open, quarterfinals at French Open) were the exact same as last season, and she has played well of late with two quarterfinals in her last three major or WTA 1000 level events. Jabeur has been consistently excellent at Wimbledon, with a combined record of 16-3 in her last three tournament appearances at the All England Club. All of this adds up to a player much more likely than her 14-to-1 odds to finally break through for that first Wimbledon title. I am also keeping my eye on Jessica Pegula (+1800) and Naomi Osaka (+1800) as value plays, with the game to win but longer-shot odds.