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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Thank goodness actual football is starting soon. No offense to the good folks of the Atlantic Coast Conference, but when lawsuits and countersuits are the primary storyline of your offseason, well, you haven’t had a very enjoyable offseason. (I think there’s an “Affidavits and Contracts Conference” joke in here somewhere, but I won’t make it, even though there’s almost nothing Atlantic about this place now.)
Everything about the ACC feels weird right now, from big football programs plotting to leave, to teams from Texas and California joining, to the simple existence of a conference with 17 teams and games like Stanford at Syracuse, Boston College at SMU and Cal at Wake Forest. The variation in schedule strengths — Georgia Tech ranks 15th in projected SP+ SOS, five other teams rank in the top 40, and four others rank outside the top 70 — makes this only loosely feel like a conference. But when the games actually start, we’ll have a potentially stellar race on our hands all the same. Florida State and Clemson, the standout escape plotters (and winners of 12 of the past 13 ACC championships), start out in the front of the race, but five teams are projected between 19th and 32nd in SP+ and loom not far behind.
Let’s preview the ACC!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 134 FBS teams. The previews will include 2023 breakdowns, 2024 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, AAC, MWC and Sun Belt previews.
Jump to a section:
2024 projections | Best games
Title contenders | Who’s close?
Hoping for 6-6
2023 recap
Last we saw Florida State, Mike Norvell’s Seminoles were the victim of the College Football Playoff committee’s worst-ever decision and laying the egg of all eggs in the Orange Bowl. It was unfortunate for any number of obvious reasons, but it also just distracted us from the fact that, in the period of just two years, Norvell had transformed the Seminoles from a listless mess to the class of the ACC. They won their first league title in nine years and, despite the Orange Bowl, enjoyed their best finish in SP+ in 10 years.
Elsewhere, Louisville secured its first ACC championship game appearance thanks to a 4-0 record in one-score finishes in conference games, but Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals were among a large batch of similar teams. Including SMU — which, like FSU, dealt with its own late-season QB injury issues — seven current ACC teams finished between 23rd and 40th in SP+. And that doesn’t include a Virginia Tech team that enjoyed a massive midseason turnaround. After starting the season 2-4 and ranking as low as 76th in SP+, Brent Pry’s Hokies won five of their last seven, overachieved projections by an average of 14.7 points per game and charged to 46th. And now they rank in the nation’s top five in returning production.
Meanwhile, the other new additions, Cal and Stanford, were basically West Coast Georgia Tech and West Coast Virginia.
2024 projections
While conference schedule strengths indeed vary dramatically, the average conference win totals set the table pretty nicely. FSU and Clemson are over 6.0, and five teams are between 5.1 and 5.6. If either the Seminoles or Tigers underachieve, any number of other contenders, from hot and experienced Virginia Tech to ultra-talented and perpetually disappointing Miami, could make a title run.
It’s basically FSU and Clemson (combined: 51.3% chance of winning the ACC) versus the field. That’s a little bit more aggressive than what ESPN’s FPI has (45.5%) and quite a bit more confident than the ESPN BET odds that have more confidence in Miami and NC State, among others. But the general vibe here is set. Can FSU sufficiently hit the reset button after last year’s awful ending? Can Clemson rebound as projected? Among the quintet of other challengers, who stands out?
Five best games of 2024
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Florida State at SMU (Sept. 28). SMU wasn’t exactly blessed with a set of dynamite home games in its first year as a power-conference team since 1995. Visits from Pitt, Boston College and California might not move the needle a ton, but this one’s huge. It will tell us if Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs are indeed capable of making a run in their first ACC season.
Clemson at Florida State (Oct. 5). Of the last 12 times these teams have met, the winner went on to win the ACC 11 times. Seems like this one’s relatively big.
Miami at Louisville (Oct. 19). Louisville has been blessed by a pretty light conference schedule; the Cardinals do play at Clemson, but they play only two other top-60 ACC opponents, and both have to visit the stadium formerly known as Papa John’s: SMU in Week 6 and Miami in Week 8. This one could be an eliminator of sorts.
Florida State at Miami (Oct. 26). What a streaky rivalry game this has been. Miami won nine of 11 showdowns from 1985-94, then FSU won five straight, then Miami won six straight, then FSU won 10 of 12, then Miami won four in a row, and now FSU has won three in a row.
Clemson at Virginia Tech (Nov. 9). The last time a ranked Virginia Tech hosted a ranked opponent in front of a packed Lane Stadium was 2018 (No. 6 Notre Dame 45, No. 24 Tech 23). Obviously the Hokies have some work to do if they plan on being ranked in early November, but it’s on the table. This one could be dynamite.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Mike Norvell (fifth year, 31-17 overall)
2024 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.3 average wins (6.2 in ACC)
It hasn’t been boring. Mike Norvell’s FSU tenure began with odd social media exchanges, an inexcusable and devastating last-second loss to an FCS team and 16 defeats in 28 games. But after a 34-28 loss to Clemson dropped the Seminoles to 4-3 midway through 2022, everything clicked. An improving defense turned into a top-20 unit, and an offense helmed by Jordan Travis averaged 42 points per game in the 2022 home stretch. FSU won six straight to finish 10-3, and after another round of great transfer acquisitions — a trend under Norvell — they won 13 more to start 2023. The turnaround was complete. All that was missing was a shot at the national title. That, of course, never came. When Travis got hurt late in the season, and the Seminoles offense struggled (even while the defense began playing like the best in the country), the CFP committee used that as an excuse to give the final CFP spot to SEC champion Alabama.
It was an unforgivable decision; it’s also in the past, and the next act of Norvell’s tenure will depend on how well his Seminoles leave that bitterness behind. In 2024, a relatively new Noles team will have a chance to repeat as ACC champs, and this time, with a 12-team CFP and five autobids for conference champs, it will be awfully hard for the committee to leave them out.
Continuity on the offensive line and in the secondary can be huge for a team, and FSU has quite a bit of both. For the former, three starters return — including All-ACC left tackle Darius Washington — and are joined by Florida’s starting left guard (Richie Leonard IV) and one of a few Alabama transfers, guard Terrence Ferguson II.
Only one other offensive starter, tight end Kyle Morlock, returns. Oregon State and Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei and redshirt freshman Brock Glenn are battling for the starting QB position; slot receiver Ja’Khi Douglas is the only returning wideout who caught double-digit passes last year, and transfers Malik Benson (Bama) and Jalen Brown (LSU) join a huge batch of young blue-chippers like sophomore Hykeem Williams. At running back, big-play man Lawrance Toafili returns, but Norvell added both a big back (Bama’s Roydell Williams) and a water bug (Indiana’s Jaylin Lucas, who was more dangerous in the passing game last year) for variety.
The FSU defense has improved for three consecutive years under coordinator Adam Fuller; anything more would be driven by a dynamite secondary. Corners Fentrell Cypress II and Azareye’h Thomas return, as does safety Shyheim Brown. However, the turnover in the front six is pretty extensive: Five of last year’s top seven linemen, plus both starting linebackers, are gone. Fuller still has stars in end Patrick Payton, 318-pound tackle Joshua Farmer and possibly linebacker DJ Lundy, but it’s probably not a surprise that FSU signed four line transfers.
My favorite player: DE Patrick Payton. Jared Verse was awesome. The Albany transfer lived up to every ounce of hype he received when he arrived in 2022, and he was picked 19th in the 2024 NFL draft.
I think Payton might be better?
The 254-pound Miami native made more havoc plays per snap than any defender in the country with 500-plus snaps and finished with more sacks, a higher pressure rate and more run stops than Verse. FSU is still blessed in the edge rusher department.
Head coach: Dabo Swinney (16th full year, 170-43 overall)
2024 projection: 14th in SP+, 9.1 average wins (6.3 in ACC)
Over the last three seasons, Clemson’s average SP+ rating is 14.4, the 15th-best in FBS. The Tigers have gone 30-10 in that span, winning an ACC title. If you knew nothing about what Clemson did before 2021, Dabo Swinney’s downright counter-cultural method of roster building — and completely eschewing the potential of the transfer portal in the name of doubling down on culture and in-house development — would seem rather charming. We are supposed to reward coaches for going about things differently and winning, right?
If you’re reading this, however, you probably know about Clemson’s history before 2021.
Clemson’s 2023 team was solid. It was also the school’s worst in 12 years. And Swinney refuses to fill holes like everyone else in his general recruiting stratosphere does: with transfers. He’s signed two of them in six years; both were backup quarterbacks, and one had begun his career at Clemson.
Without transfers, Clemson has become far less nimble than other top-15ish schools when it comes to addressing weaknesses. Case in point: the offense. After averaging a No. 50 ranking in offensive SP+ in 2021-22, Swinney hired TCU’s Garrett Riley as coordinator and handed the full-time reins to five-star sophomore Cade Klubnik. The Tigers ranked 51st in offensive SP+. Meanwhile, an inexperienced defense was still good, but it fell to 21st in defensive SP+, the worst in nine seasons.
This is a rubber-meeting-road season for Swinney and his methods. Now that he’s let a new OC and quarterback get to know each other for a year, and now that he’s allowed exciting young defenders to get their feet wet, it’s time for both units to take solid steps forward in 2024. And they might, even if the season begins with an immediate setback against Georgia.
Klubnik, leading rusher Phil Mafah, tight end Jake Briningstool and slot man Tyler Brown return, as do seven of the nine linemen who started a game last year. The offense improved late in the season, too. Clemson desperately needs a boost in the big-play department — their 3.5 gains per game of 20-plus yards ranked 109th nationally, and the only main receiver to average more than 11.5 yards per catch (a low bar) was Beaux Collins, who transferred to Notre Dame. The Tigers can control the ball with death-by-a-thousand-cuts efficiency, but big plays and easy points win big games.
The Tigers defense has regressed in each of coordinator Wes Goodwin’s first two seasons, but after some 2023 growing pains they might now have the most promising base of young talent in the country.
Everywhere you look, there’s a thrilling sophomore — defensive end T.J. Parker, tackle Peter Woods, corners Khalil Barnes and Avieon Terrell, linebacker Kobe McCloud. The pass rush didn’t get home quite as much as it should have considering their 46% blitz rate (second-highest in the country), but the Tigers still ranked second in passing success rate allowed and sixth in raw QBR. But there were some breakdowns in an all-or-nothing run defense. That’s not guaranteed to improve without leading tackler Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and four of last year’s top five linemen, but it’s hard to look at the defensive two-deep and not think, “Yeah, they’re going to be fine.”
My favorite player: CB Khalil Barnes. I’m a sucker for versatility. Barnes lined up as a cornerback 293 times last year, a safety 96 times and an inside or outside linebacker 114 times. He racked up all sorts of different disruption stats: five TFLs, two run stops, four pressures, one sack, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. Oh yeah, and as a hellacious cover guy, he allowed a 37% completion rate while intercepting three passes and breaking up five more. Just imagine what he’ll be capable of when he knows what he’s doing!
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Mario Cristobal (third year, 12-13 overall)
2024 projection: 19th in SP+, 8.8 average wins (5.5 in ACC)
Mario Cristobal was the first coach to create anything respectable at Florida International. He brought Oregon a top-five finish and Rose Bowl title in 2019. He’s done things. He’s just not a 10 out of 10 on the Burden of Proof scale.
He’s at least an 8 out of 10, though, right? Miami pushed out Manny Diaz after he went 15-8 in 2020-21 because it was time to bring Cristobal, one of The U’s favorite sons, home to build a behemoth. He’s proceeded to go 12-13 in two seasons. He inherited a top-25 offense (per SP+) and a top-15 quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke (per Total QBR), and both got demonstrably worse in the last two years. Cristobal recruits like gangbusters and makes logical coordinator hires, but his game-management decisions, often spectacularly conservative, can either make games closer than they should be or backfire in nuclear fashion.
It’s possible that at some point you just recruit so well that it overcomes your shortcomings. Cristobal added 14 more four-star freshmen to the roster and made a splash in the transfer portal, bringing in Washington State quarterback Cam Ward, Oregon State running back Damien Martinez and a number of proven defenders.
No matter how conservative Cristobal’s impulses might be, a backfield of Ward and Martinez is going to play flashy ball. Ward is a dangerous scrambler, with all that entails — exciting, explosive plays (pro) and more sacks than you would prefer (con) — while Martinez is simply one of the best tackle-breakers in college football. He’s an old-school, high-kneed runner, and he joins a skill corps that already featured one of the country’s safest possession receivers (slot man Xavier Restrepo) and a potentially high-end big-play man in Jacolby George. The offensive line, painfully young last year, is more experienced, too, and has a potential star in sophomore tackle Francis Mauigoa. The only reason to think this offense won’t be fantastic is the recent track record of the head coach.
Defensively, Miami’s been decent but not elite under Lance Guidry (top-50 in defensive SP+ both years). In 2023, the Canes rendered opponents inefficient (25th in success rate allowed) but suffered too many glitches and allowed 32.4 points per game against five top-50 offenses.
Of the 15 defenders who saw at least 200 snaps, only five return, but Cristobal was aggressive in signing seven starters from other FBS teams, including Washington nickel Mishael Powell, Tennessee end Tyler Baron and tackles Simeon Barrow Jr. (Michigan State) and C.J. Clark (NC State). Getting sophomore tackle Rueben Bain Jr. (11 TFLs) and junior Akheem Mesidor (11.5 TFLs in 2022 before missing most of 2023 with injury) back up front is good news, too.
My favorite player: RB Damien Martinez. You just don’t see many players that are both as physical and as explosive as Martinez.
Martinez touched the ball 17.1 times per game last season, forcing a missed tackle on nearly one-third of his touches and rushing for 10-plus yards more times (39) than he was stopped at or behind the line (33). He adds a level of nastiness that the Miami offense really needed.
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (third year, 18-9 overall)
2024 projection: 23rd in SP+, 9.1 average wins (5.6 in ACC)
It’s hard not to like what Rhett Lashlee has done thus far at SMU.
SMU has enjoyed a top-25 offense (per SP+) for five straight years, but Lashlee’s Mustangs enjoyed a huge 2023 season — 11 wins, AAC championship, first top-25 SP+ finish 1984 — in part because they discovered defense.
Under second-year coordinator Scott Symons, the Mustangs leaped from 115th to 39th in defensive SP+ with a sturdy run defense and a fierce but low-risk pass rush (translation: the defensive ends were awesome, and they didn’t have to blitz). They return probably their best player at each level of the field — defensive end Elijah Roberts, linebacker Ahmad Walker, safeties Jonathan McGill and Isaiah Nwokobia — but with last year’s top three defensive tackles gone and a likely fear of depth issues with the jump to the ACC, Lashlee loaded up with eight transfer linemen, all from power conferences, and while transfer ends felt redundant with the return of Roberts and other potential studs like Cameron Robertson and Isaiah Smith, size in the middle was a necessity. And I mean size: Mike Lockhart (WVU) made 8.5 TFLs at 317 pounds last year, and Anthony Booker Jr. (Arkansas) weighed in last year at 351. The other primary defensive concern was at corner, which Lashlee attempted to address with the addition of Deuce Harmon (Texas A&M).
SMU should immediately have some of the best quarterback and skill corps play in the ACC. Junior Preston Stone threw for 3,197 yards and 28 TDs, ranking seventh nationally in yards per dropback and 30th in Total QBR. Three of last year’s starting linemen are gone (which prompted Lashlee to sign five OL transfers, all, again, from power conferences), but if the new-ish line holds up — not a guarantee — Stone should take full advantage of a skill corps that barely lost anyone. Backs Jaylan Knighton, LJ Johnson Jr. and Camar Wheaton return after combining for 1,731 rushing yards and 16 TDs, and seven receivers who caught between 24 and 42 passes, led by senior Jake Bailey, all return. They’re joined by former blue-chippers Brashard Smith (Miami) and Ashton Cozart (Oregon), too.
SMU’s starting 22 will be capable of winning lots of ACC games right out of the gate, but we’ll see if Lashlee’s depth-building efforts were enough. I’m guessing yes.
My favorite player: DE Elijah Roberts. Only seven pass rushers combined at least a 14% pressure rate with at least 11 sacks created (first pressures on plays that resulted in sacks) last season, a list that includes All-Americans Laiatu Latu and Jalen Green and second-round draft pick Chris Braswell. It also includes Roberts, who lined up everywhere on SMU’s line, produced 10 sacks and pressured the QB at least four times in five different games. He’s one of the best in the country.
Head coach: Jeff Brohm (second year, 10-4 overall)
2024 projection: 28th in SP+, 7.6 average wins (5.2 in ACC)
Jeff Brohm knows how to make a first impression. At Purdue in 2017, he inherited a team that had averaged 2.3 wins and a 93.5 average SP+ ranking over four years and immediately won seven games and brought them into the top 40. His tenure was up and down from there, but he bought immediate goodwill.
The Louisville native and Louisville grad returned home last season, and while the Cardinals’ improvement wasn’t quite as voracious — Louisville won eight games the year before Brohm’s arrival — his first team still won 10 games and jumped to 34th in SP+. It took close wins and turnovers luck to get them into the ACC Championship, and the Cardinals finished with three straight losses, but it was still a strong debut.
For better or worse, Brohm isn’t sitting still. A year after bringing in 25 transfers, he brought in 28 more. (He actually brought in more than that, but a few left after spring ball.) The offense could feature as many as seven transfers in the starting lineup, including quarterback Tyler Shough (Texas Tech), running back Donald Chaney Jr. (Miami), receivers Caullin Lacy (South Alabama) and Ja’Corey Brooks (Alabama) and any of three tight ends and five linemen. Brohm is taking on some injury risk with Shough (who’s played only 22 games in four years) and Chaney (27 games in four years), but I love the receiver additions. Brooks has yet to put together a nice, sustained effort, but he bordered on excellent in 2022, and Lacy was incredible in 2023 (1,316 yards, 3.1 per route). Brohm also took a flier on a Division II star, Tuskegee’s Antonio Meeks, who averaged 17.3 yards per catch with five touchdowns last season.
The defense, which was decent but regressed a bit from 2022, welcomes 14 transfers as well, including cornerbacks Tahveon Nicholson (Illinois) and Corey Thornton (UCF), end Tramel Logan (USF) and tackle Jordan Guerad (FIU). Almost all of the defensive transfers, plus a majority of the offensive players, are seniors, meaning Brohm could be doing this all again next year. We’ll see if you can build the culture you need to succeed long-term this way, but there’s no time like the present in Louisville.
My favorite player: WR Caullin Lacy. You never fully know what to expect about a guy jumping to a better conference, but Lacy was absolutely dynamite in the Sun Belt last year. He’s a master of turning short routes into intermediate gains — he averaged 8.4 yards per catch on screens and 11.8 on shallow or hook routes — but he also caught 11 of 19 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. He topped 100 yards eight times last season, including an early stretch of seven games in a row. I will be floored if he doesn’t thrive under Brohm.
Head coach: Dave Doeren (12th year, 81-58 overall)
2024 projection: 29th in SP+, 8.5 average wins (5.4 in ACC)
At the midway point of 2023, Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack were 4-3 and 54th in SP+. They had beaten three pretty bad teams (UConn, Virginia and Marshall) by only 20 combined points, and they had lost to three top-40 teams by a combined 45. This seemed like the second-worst State team of the last decade.
After a bye week, however, the Pack upset Clemson, bolting to a 24-7 lead and holding on, 24-17. From that point forward, they seemed like a completely different team. They won five straight to end the regular season, overachieving against SP+ projections by 16.1 points per game and walloping Miami, Wake Forest and North Carolina by at least 14 points each. A disappointing bowl performance against Kansas State deprived them of both a long-awaited 10-win season and an opportunity to cannibalize an anthropomorphic Pop Tart (college football, everybody!). But that was one hell of a stretch run.
There are enough key pieces returning — do-everything slot receiver Kevin Concepcion, four starting offensive linemen, cornerback Aydan White, veteran defensive coordinator Tony Gibson — that the idea of Doeren and his Pack building off of November momentum isn’t totally far-fetched. But both of last year’s quarterbacks are gone, most of the skill corps outside of Concepcion is brand new, and while about half the defense is back, of the four defenders with at least six tackles for loss, three are gone, including a longtime star in linebacker Payton Wilson. They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)
Doeren did score some impressive transfer portal wins. Running back Jordan Waters (Duke) is the kind of efficiency back NC State has lacked (the Pack were 106th in rushing success rate last year), redshirt freshman receiver Noah Rogers (Ohio State) was a top-70 prospect, and landing center Zeke Correll (Notre Dame) was a possible coup. Doeren stocked up with six defensive back transfers as well, but the most important newcomer is Grayson McCall. The longtime Coastal Carolina QB has 10,005 career passing yards and 88 TDs, and if he’s moved past the injuries that slowed him down in recent years — his Total QBR through 2021 was an outstanding 81.9, but it was only 66.3 the last two seasons — State’s offense could have particularly high upside.
My favorite player: WR Kevin Concepcion. Get the ball to KC, one way or another. That was the goal of the 2023 NC State offense, and when it worked, the Pack thrived. The true freshman led the team with 71 catches, 839 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he also rushed 41 times for 320 yards. And when he produced at least 100 yards from scrimmage (ground or air), State went 6-0 and averaged 32.7 points per game. When he didn’t: 3-4, 20.7 PPG. Maybe he’ll have more help this year?
Head coach: Brent Pry (third year, 10-14 overall)
2024 projection: 32nd in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.1 in ACC)
NC State might have won the official Late-Year Darling award, but Brent Pry’s Hokies came close, surging from 76th in SP+ following a 2-4 start to finish with five wins in seven games and a No. 46 final ranking. And unlike the Pack, they return their starting quarterback (Kyron Drones) and, for that matter, just about everyone else. They rank fourth nationally in returning production, first on offense, and after six years outside the SP+ top 30, they’ll have a chance to end that streak.
Tech’s 2-4 start was beset by a directionless offense that averaged just 5.0 yards per play. But once Drones and RB Bhayhsul Tuten, both transfers, got their sea legs, the Hokies were transformed. They averaged 34.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play over the final seven games, and Drones heads into 2024 with Tuten, his entire offensive line and the receiving corps he was supposed to have all along. Last year’s top receivers, Da’Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane, return, as do 2023 injury victims Ali Jennings III (a former ODU star) and tight end Nick Gallo.
The Hokies had one of the best pass defenses in the country last season, ranking fourth in sacks per dropback, 15th in passing success rate allowed and 23rd in QBR allowed. Ace pass rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (15 TFLs, 9.5 sacks) is back, and Pry added both one of the better pass-rushing defensive tackles in the country in 290-pound Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles (five sacks) and a speedy blitzer in Middle Tennessee’s Sam Brumfield (22.9% pressure rate). Add in experienced corners Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane and a dynamic nickel in Keonta Jenkins (12 TFLs), and there’s no reason to think the pass defense will be any less effective. If there was a problem, it came in run defense, where Tech allowed quite a few gashes. Three of last year’s top four tackles are gone, and while Peebles and two other tackle transfers could improve things in this regard, it’s not a guarantee.
My favorite player: QB Kyron Drones. Drones overtook incumbent Grant Wells as starter early in the season, but he managed just a 44.0 Total QBR in the first four games of 2023, completing 55% of his passes with a 23% sack rate and just one TD pass.
The rest of the season: 60% completion rate, a 6% sack rate, 16 TDs, only two interceptions, 82.7 non-sack rushing yards per game and a 76.9 Total QBR. Coordinator Tyler Bowen figured him out, and he figured out ACC defenses. With Tuten enjoying a similar surge (3.9 yards per carry through seven games, 6.2 from there), Tech had one of the best backfields in the Eastern time zone by the end of the season.
Head coach: Manny Diaz (first year)
2024 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.7 average wins (3.3 in ACC)
A good hire can be transformative. When David Cutcliffe came aboard in 2008, Duke was maybe the worst power conference football job. Carl Franks and Ted Roof had combined to beat just 10 FBS opponents in nine seasons. The facilities were poor, the support poorer. It had been 48 years since Duke finished a year ranked or won a bowl game. Just dire stuff.
Over 14 seasons, Cutcliffe redefined what Duke was capable of. His Blue Devils won a division title and bowled six times in seven years. They fell off-course at the end of his tenure, but he raised the floor significantly, and in two years under Mike Elko, they went 9-4 and 8-5 (despite QB injuries), respectively.
In 2008, Duke probably wouldn’t have attracted an Elko or a Manny Diaz. After a dramatic three seasons as Miami’s head coach, Diaz spent the last two years as a masterful defensive coordinator at Penn State. Now he’s returned to the ACC to take over a roster that, even with a solid amount of turnover, should still play at a top-50 or better level if the lines hold up. (Duke from 1991-2012: one top-50 performance.)
Lines are pretty much the only mystery. The defense, top-30 for two straight years, returns sturdy linebackers in Tre Freeman and Nick Morris Jr. and excellent DBs in safety Jaylen Stinson and corner Chandler Rivers. On offense, the skill corps features a strong running back in Jaquez Moore and one of the ACC’s best receivers in Jordan Moore. Quarterback Riley Leonard transferred to Notre Dame, but sophomore Grayson Loftis posted Leonard-like numbers, and Texas transfer Maalik Murphy looked awfully good in the spring. Odds are solid that coordinator Jonathan Brewer’s first Duke offense will have good QB play. (Brewer was Rhett Lashlee’s QBs coach after the two worked under Diaz at Miami. Circle of life!)
The lines are getting a renovation, however. Seven offensive linemen started at least six games in 2023 and five are gone, along with three backups. Diaz signed seven 300-pounders up front, including UCLA’s starting left tackle, Bruno Fina. On defense, four of the five linemen with 300-plus snaps are gone. Sophomore Wesley Williams is excellent, and it probably says something that Diaz only signed two transfers, but depth is an obvious question mark until otherwise noted.
My favorite player: WR Jordan Moore. Moore has been targeted 203 times over the last two seasons, and despite working with three different QBs in 2023, he averaged an excellent 2.1 yards per route run, 2.5 over the last five games of the regular season (in which he went for 446 yards). He’s good at the short stuff, and on vertical and crossing routes, he caught 19 passes for 414 yards and three scores. He formed a great partnership with Loftis, and he will probably do the same with Murphy.
Head coach: Mack Brown (16th year, 107-73-1 overall, 38-27 in second stint)
2024 projection: 50th in SP+, 7.2 average wins (4.3 in ACC)
When Mack Brown was re-hired at North Carolina at age 67, it was easy to see this as an all-or-nothing proposition. Either he catches fire quickly and turns around a program that had suddenly collapsed under Larry Fedora, or he flames out just as quickly, the game having passed him by.
Instead, in five years under Brown, UNC has been … UNC. Removing the 2018 collapse season and looking at the 10 years before that and the five years under Brown, the Tar Heels have been basically the exact same.
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North Carolina, 2008-17: 70.8% average SP+ percentile, 7.3 average wins
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North Carolina, 2019-23: 70.1% average SP+ percentile, 7.6 average wins
With a quarterback change and lots of other turnover, it feels like Brown is starting over a bit in 2024. Either Conner Harrell or Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson will likely succeed No. 3 draft pick Drake Maye behind center; Harrell struggled in a small sample, while Johnson is a pretty known entity: Over parts of four seasons at LSU and A&M, he has a 61.1 Total QBR, equivalent to about 65th nationally. Harrell can run, which would add a different dynamic to Chip Lindsey’s offense, but the offensive line is almost completely starting over — five of last year’s top six guys are gone.
Blue-chip tight end Jake Johnson followed brother Max to Chapel Hill, and three 40-catch guys (J.J. Jones, slot Nate McCollum and tight end Bryson Nesbit) do return. More importantly, four-star workhorse Omarion Hampton is back after rushing for 1,504 yards and 15 scores. He’s the best tackle-breaker in the country, which could come in handy with a new line.
On defense, the Heels have averaged a 79.3 defensive SP+ ranking over the last three years, and Geoff Collins is Brown’s third coordinator in four years. Experience isn’t an issue: Including nickel back DeAndre Boykins‘ 2022 stats (he was hurt in 2023), 16 defenders saw at least 300 snaps, and nine return, all juniors and seniors. Kaimon Rucker is one of the best edge rushers in the ACC, and end Desmond Evans, linebacker Power Echols, and DBs Marcus Allen, Boykins and Alijah Huzzie are all solid and physical. But everyone but Boykins was on last year’s No. 78 defense, too.
My favorite player: RB Omarion Hampton. It’s easy to start laughing watching Hampton run. Guys just bounce off of him. When I say he was the most difficult back in the country to tackle, I mean it in all italics. No one came close to his after-contact averages.
He ran out of gas at the end of the season, but he rushed for 234 yards against Appalachian State and ripped off a later six-game stretch averaging 7.0 yards per carry and 158.8 yards per game. He’s phenomenal.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Justin Wilcox (eighth year, 36-43 overall)
2024 projection: 52nd in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.5 in ACC)
California fooled me about four different times last year. After going just 10-18 over the last three seasons, Justin Wilcox’s Golden Bears boasted one of the nation’s better running backs in the country (Jaydn Ott) and a solid bend-don’t-break defense that forced loads of mistakes and turnovers. They began the season 3-2 but lost four games in a row while incredibly scoring 40, 14, 49 and 19 points. They needed to win their last three games to bowl for the first time in four years … and did so, finishing with a 33-7 blowout at UCLA. Then they no-showed in the Independence Bowl, losing to Texas Tech by 20. It was basically a season that resembled Wilcox’s rickety Cal tenure as a whole: up, down, up, down, et cetera.
In their good moments, however, they looked awfully interesting, and in Ott, big-play slot man Trond Grizzell and three big linemen, their best offensive players return. Wilcox also got super aggressive in the portal — always tricky for a smart-kid school — adding both stellar Group of 5 and FCS starters (North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers, ODU running back Kadarius Calloway, NMSU receiver Jonathan Brady, FCS All-American lineman Rush Reimer) and some unproven former blue-chippers like receiver Kyion Grayes (Ohio State). Between Rogers and sophomore Fernando Mendoza, a good QB should emerge. And Ott’s awesome.
After four straight years in the defensive SP+ top 30, Cal’s defense collapsed to 79th in 2022, then 84th in 2023. If you made a mistake, they punished it with a takeaway, but the Bears were horrifically inefficient (121st in success rate allowed). Turnovers were all they had. Seven starters return (eight including tackle Ethan Saunders, injured in 2023), and sophomore linebacker Cade Uluave is a potential star. (Corner Lu-Magia Hearns III is also good.) But if a defensive rebound comes, it will be because of FCS transfers like corner Marcus Harris (Idaho) and linebacker Liam Johnson (Princeton). A good offense might get better, but a sliding defense might not.
My favorite player: RB Jaydn Ott. A powerful runner with home run ability. He’s great in short yardage, and he had more rushes of 10-plus yards (32) than losses (26). When he’s on, nothing else matters — when he averaged 6.0 or more yards per carry, Cal averaged 47.3 points per game. When he didn’t, the Bears averaged 21.6.
Head coach: Brent Key (second full year, 11-10 overall)
2024 projection: 63rd in SP+, 4.2 average wins (2.3 in ACC)
Welcome back to the land of the living, Georgia Tech! After winning just 14 games in the four years after Paul Johnson’s retirement, the Yellow Jackets became interesting again in 2023. Brent Key earned the full-time job after going 4-4 as interim coach in 2022, and while I was wary of that — we sometimes overreact to small samples (and this small sample was still pretty mediocre) — damned if Key didn’t take full advantage of the opportunity. With Texas A&M transfer Haynes King serving as a lovely dual-threat quarterback (2,842 passing yards, 830 pre-sack rushing yards), the Yellow Jackets surged from 122nd to 50th in offensive SP+, and even with a problematic defense, Tech won seven games for the first time since 2018.
There’s no reason to think the offense won’t be even better in 2024. King is a delight, as is backfield mate and 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes. Leading receiver Eric Singleton Jr. averaged a massive 2.4 yards per route as a freshman, too, and of the eight offensive linemen to start a game last year, five are back. Defense could still hold them back, but Key brought in nine transfers and, perhaps more importantly, a new defensive coordinator in Tyler Santucci. He was coordinator for Duke’s top-25 defense last year, and he should get good safety play from juniors Clayton Powell-Lee and LaMiles Brooks. But even with a talent boost from the portal, it’s hard to see enough difference-makers here.
The schedule is problematic. Tech plays two projected top-10 teams in nonconference play (Notre Dame, at Georgia) and seven teams projected 32nd or better. Even playing at a top-40 level, the Jackets would need some good breaks to bowl again.
My favorite player: QB Haynes King. A portal success story. After injuries and false starts at Texas A&M, King transferred to Georgia Tech and found a groove. He produced a Total QBR of at least 80 in six games (including four of the last six), and in those games the Yellow Jackets averaged 39.0 points per game and went 5-1. In the other games, they went 2-5 and averaged 24.3 points. Among 2024 starters, only Syracuse’s Kyle McCord finished 2023 with a higher Total QBR rating.
Head coach: Fran Brown (first year)
2024 projection: 64th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (3.4 in ACC)
Unlike most head coach hires, Fran Brown doesn’t have much relevant coordinator experience from which we can glean his values and beliefs. What we do know is that he has spent most of the last decade working for three proven program builders: Matt Rhule (Temple/Baylor), Greg Schiano (Rutgers) and Kirby Smart (Georgia). At this point, Brown has a PhD in Culture and Player Development. That could come in handy in a job that is never going to feature top-15 recruiting classes.
Brown did add a few key former blue-chippers to the lineup through the transfer portal. Quarterback Kyle McCord (Ohio State) might not have been as good as recent Buckeyes quarterbacks, but you can do worse than a 66% completion rate and a 24-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio. McCord’s receiving corps is big and physical, featuring last year’s leading receiver (6-foot-3 Umari Hatcher), 2022’s leader (6-foot-5 WR/TE hybrid Oronde Gadsden II, injured last fall), Colorado State transfer Justus Ross-Simmons (also 6-foot-3) and versatile tight end Dan Villari, plus LeQuint Allen, a workhorse running back who also caught 38 passes. Coordinator Jeff Nixon was most recently an NFL position coach but also worked for Rhule. That likely means an emphasis on physicality, which could mean good things for Allen, Washington transfer Will Nixon and a line that returns four starters.
Thirteen defenders saw at least 300 snaps in 2023, but only six return. Linebacker Marlowe Wax (10 TFLs, four forced fumbles) is a star, as is former Texas A&M end Fadil Diggs (13.5 TFLs), who followed coordinator Elijah Robinson from College Station to upstate New York. Other transfer additions include 6-foot-4 Buffalo safety Devin Grant (five INTs) and, strangely, a former Syracuse star in safety Duce Chestnut, who spent last season at LSU. Depth at both tackle and cornerback could be issues, but as with the offense, this unit could be pretty successfully physical.
My favorite player: CB Duce Chestnut. Another portal success story of sorts. Because second-time transfers don’t have to sit out a year anymore, we’ve seen some guys return to previous homes this offseason, an “As it turned out, this was the best place for me after all” acknowledgment of sorts. Chestnut’s LSU experience was unamazing, but in two all-ACC years at Syracuse, he combined four interceptions and seven breakups with a safety-like seven tackles at or behind the line.
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (first year)
2024 projection: 75th in SP+, 4.6 average wins (2.5 in ACC)
A surge, then a slow slide. No matter who has been Boston College’s head coach, that’s how things have gone for most of the last 50 years.
The surges haven’t been quite as pronounced of late, though. The Eagles charged from the 70s to the teens in SP+ in the early-2000s, then from the 90s to the 40s in the early-2010s. But their last top-50 performance was six years ago, and they averaged just an 80.5 SP+ ranking in four years under Jeff Hafley.
BC replaced Hafley with a far more proven head coach in Bill O’Brien. The gruff Boston native won 15 games in two seasons at post-Paterno Penn State, then won four AFC South crowns in parts of seven seasons with the Houston Texans. He spent the last three seasons working with either Nick Saban or Bill Belichick.
O’Brien inherits a BC team that was excellent at running the ball, decent at stopping the run and terrible at both executing and stopping the forward pass. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos averaged 6.4 yards per (non-sack) carry and only 5.1 yards per dropback; he’s one of the team’s best playmakers, but O’Brien brought in the more pocket-based Grayson James (FIU) in case something more customary was required. The line is large and experienced, and the skill corps has decent speed with guys like receivers Lewis Bond and Dino Tomlin and running backs Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward (Kansas State/Florida State).
BC hasn’t fielded a top-40 defense, per SP+, since 2017. O’Brien brought in veteran coordinator Tim Lewis, who most recently coached in the XFL and USFL. He hasn’t worked at the collegiate level since 1994, but he does inherit a veteran two-deep loaded mostly with juniors and seniors. Tackle Cam Horsley and end Donovan Ezeiruaku are strong run stoppers, though the pass rush was nonexistent, and O’Brien predictably brought in a trio of DB transfers, including Ohio State’s Cameron Martinez and Ryan Turner.
My favorite player: RT Ozzy Trapilo. BC ranked third nationally in total blown block rate, eighth in stuff rate allowed and 24th in pressure rate allowed, and while the loss of both starting guards hurts, the Eagles have an anchor in Trapilo. The 6-foot-8 senior from Norwell, Mass., allowed just one sack and suffered only a 0.3% blown run block rate, as low as you’ll ever see.
Head coach: Tony Elliott (third year, 6-16 overall)
2024 projection: 77th in SP+, 4.1 average wins (2.5 in ACC)
A true freshman led the team in passing. The offensive line featured two freshmen and two sophomores. Twenty-one defenders started at least one game. The 2023 season felt like a second first year for head coach Tony Elliott, and maybe after the tragedy that ended the 2022 season, a fresh start was exactly what was required.
The season wasn’t without some bright moments. The Cavaliers played eight teams that finished in the SP+ top 40 and upset a couple of them (UNC and Duke). Anthony Colandrea, the aforementioned freshman QB, was predictably inconsistent, but he’s a fun, high-energy guy, and a week after both throwing for 314 yards and rushing for 109 (not including sacks) against Louisville, he led an upset of Duke. Elliott insisted that Colandrea and senior Tony Muskett are still battling for the starting job this spring, but it seemed like Colandrea won that battle last November. And in 2024, he’ll no longer be protected by two freshman tackles. Leading receiver Malik Washington is gone, but senior Malachi Fields will be joined by transfers Chris Tyree (Notre Dame), Trell Harris (Kent State) and Andre Greene Jr. (North Carolina). The running game might still be dismal, but you can build around this passing game.
The defense, decent in 2022, fell apart amid constant injuries and shuffling. The Cavaliers prevented big plays but didn’t force nearly enough field goals or turnovers to pull off a proper bend-don’t-break routine. Most of the front six returns, including active linebackers James Jackson and Kamren Robinson and pass rusher Kam Butler. Safety Jonas Sanker gives veteran coordinator John Rudzinski at least one known quantity in the back, but four of last year’s top five DBs are gone, and Elliott signed four DB transfers. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the run defense improved with experience, but the pass defense is a major question mark.
My favorite player: DE Kam Butler. Butler is a modern college football story, in that he transferred midway through his career and has been playing forever. He was a freshman star at Miami (Ohio) in 2019 and made 32 tackles and 15 sacks in 30 career games before transferring. His first season at UVA was decent, and he was on the way toward another breakout — 5.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks in just 199 snaps — before a season-ending shoulder injury. If he’s 100%, he’s a potentially transformative star up front.
Head coach: Dave Clawson (11th year, 63-61 overall)
2024 projection: 78th in SP+, 4.7 average wins (2.4 in ACC)
Dave Clawson’s head-coaching career has not been without setbacks. His Richmond Spiders slumped from 9-4 to 6-5 in 2006 before rebounding to win 11 games and reach the FCS semis. His second Bowling Green team returned just seven starters and cratered to 2-10 before improving for three straight years. Clawson has proven to be an incredible program builder; he’s handled bumps pretty well too.
It sure felt like 2023 was more than a bump, though.
Wake plummeted to 4-8 and 96th in SP+. The offense vanished, averaging 12.5 points per game against top-50 opponents. There were no big plays and far too many turnovers. Quarterback Sam Hartman had left for Notre Dame, and the replacements weren’t ready. (Then the chief replacement, Mitch Griffis, transferred too.)
Here’s my best case for a Wake bounce-back, at least back toward bowl eligibility:
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Offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero hasn’t forgotten what he knows. With their unique and frustrating attack, the Deacs averaged a 27.2 offensive SP+ ranking from 2017-22.
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The QB play isn’t going to get worse. Wake ranked 63rd out of 69 power-conference teams in Total QBR. Granted, things might not get a lot better with either senior Michael Kern or Louisiana Tech transfer Hank Bachmeier behind center. But it’s hard to be worse.
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Donavon Greene is back. Greene has averaged 18.6 yards per catch with 10 TDs in his career. But he’s also missed two full seasons (including 2023) with knee injuries. If he’s 100%, his presence alone solves some big-play issues.
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The defense was about the same as normal last year. It didn’t collapse like the offense. End Jasheen Davis and tackle Kevin Pointer are stars, and the Deacs should defend the run (and rush the passer) awfully well. The secondary is getting a total remodel with last year’s top four gone, but it should be pretty veteran-heavy, and hey, the bar’s pretty low. Wake ranked 93rd in Total QBR allowed.
SP+ is obviously not convinced. We’ll see.
My favorite player: DE Jasheen Davis. Davis ranked first on his team in TFLs (16), run stops (15), pressures (38), sacks (7.5) and fumble recoveries (2). Pointer, meanwhile, was second in most of those categories. As long as they’re healthy, Wake’s got one of the better defensive lines in the conference.
Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (10th year, 65-50 overall)
2024 projection: 81st in SP+, 4.6 average wins (2.5 in ACC)
Even by the standards of former defensive coordinators, Pat Narduzzi’s relationship with offense has proven complex. Entering his 10th season as Pitt head coach, he recently hired offensive coordinator No. 6. He has, on two occasions, fielded top-10 offenses (per SP+) — Matt Canada’s 2016 offense, led by James Conner and an epic play-action game; and veteran Mark Whipple’s Kenny Pickett-to-Jordan Addison attack in 2021. Both coordinators immediately left, however, and Pitt soon ranked in the triple digits each time.
Narduzzi again starts over in 2024, this time with 31-year-old former Western Carolina coordinator Kade Bell. In 2023, WCU’s up-tempo attack averaged 38 points per game and 7.3 yards per play. His new task is to spruce up a Pitt offense that averaged 20.2 and 5.3, respectively.
Spring signs pointed to junior Nate Yarnell, who looked solid in two late starts, leading Alabama transfer Eli Holstein in the QB race. Most of last year’s skill corps — leading rusher Rodney Hammond Jr., slot man Konata Mumpfield, tight end Gavin Bartholomew — is back, and Narduzzi added a couple of transfers (RB Desmond Reid, WR Raphael “Poppi” Williams) who starred for Bell at WCU. The line returns six players who started at least once in 2023; in theory, experience is good, even if the line wasn’t.
There’s upheaval on defense, where the Panthers slipped to 59th in defensive SP+ last year, their worst ranking in five years, and only five of the 15 players with 300-plus snaps return (and one of them, DE Nate Temple, is out for the season). Narduzzi signed nine defensive transfers, including five linemen. There are star candidates in holdover ends Bam Brima and Jimmy Scott and transfers like linebacker Keye Thompson (Ohio), but Narduzzi heads into 2024 with a new offense and his least proven defense in years.
My favorite player: DE Jimmy Scott. Pitt doesn’t have much in the “proven stars” department, so let’s go with a small-sample all-star. As a redshirt freshman, Scott saw increased playing time in November and immediately started making plays. He ended up with 2.5 TFLs, four run stops and three pass pressures in just 102 snaps. Project that over a larger sample, and you’ve got a potential star. Pitt needs a few of them.
Head coach: Troy Taylor (second year, 3-9 overall)
2024 projection: 84th in SP+, 3.8 average wins (2.0 in ACC)
There are resets, and there are resets. Stanford slipped late in David Shaw’s once-brilliant tenure, averaging an 86.3 SP+ ranking with just one winning season in four years. Then everyone left: Troy Taylor’s first Stanford team ranked 130th in returning production.
It was a Year 0 situation if ever one existed. Stanford needed two tight wins to even reach 3-9. Both the offense and defense had random bright moments — they scored 46 on Colorado and 33 on Washington and allowed 21 to Arizona and seven to Washington State. But they scored seven and 10, respectively, in the weeks after those good offensive games, and they allowed at least 40 points in six of their last eight games. Despite the dire season and awkward conference change, Taylor heads into his second season with the second-most returning production in the country.
Consistency is obviously needed, but it’s not hard to see a fun offense forming around quarterback Ashton Daniels and 1,000-yard receiver Elic Ayomanor. That Daniels and backup QB Justin Lamson had by far the most carries on the team speaks to both unproven RBs and the occasional weirdness of a Taylor offense, but Daniels, Ayomanor and a line with last year’s top seven returning — including mostly error-free guard Trevor Mayberry — are decent starting points.
On defense, 20 players recorded at least 100 snaps, and 15 return; tackle Anthony Franklin recorded 5.5 TFLs, linebacker Tristan Sinclair had nine run stops, and while corners Zahran Manley and Collin Wright suffered plenty of breakdowns, they also combined for seven TFLs, three INTs and 10 pass breakups. The cupboard isn’t empty, in other words, but one has to hope that sheer continuity leads to improvement.
My favorite player: WR Elic Ayomanor. He was good all year, topping 100 yards three times and catching nine passes of at least 30 yards. But in a dramatic comeback win over Colorado, Ayomanor was basically as good as a receiver can be. He caught touchdowns of 97 and 60 yards, and somehow neither were his most impressive play of the evening.
0:21
How did Elic Ayomanor hold on to this TD catch?!
Elic Ayomanor somehow grabs the touchdown and keeps both hands on the ball in overtime.
His final tally in Boulder: 13 catches, 294 yards, three touchdowns. Do that every week, and in the immortal words of Kenny Mayne, that’d be a record or something.