As the engrossing July mini-series comes to a close conclusions can be drawn on world rugby’s delicate balance of power.
After two weeks of heavyweight matches international rugby dovetails to a lightweight weekend, with the chance for the elite nations to rest and rotate against, on paper at least, less threatening opposition.
Two-Test series are a limited offering to enact sweeping judgements but as we pause to reflect on some compelling cross-hemisphere contests – Ireland and South Africa, the All Blacks and England – the first steps in the post-World Cup era suggest the status quo largely remains.
And, more tellingly, that no one has a vice-grip on top dog status.
From a pure finishing perspective, last year’s World Cup presented a skewed picture of rugby’s elite landscape as the ludicrously flawed draw pitted the four leading contenders against each other at the quarterfinal stage in a sure-fire way to suck the life from your pinnacle event.
France and Ireland’s premature exits promoted Argentina and England to the semifinals when neither of those teams, at that stage, would have been expected to reach the final four.
As it stands World Rugby lists South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand, France and England as its top five men’s teams.
The official rankings don’t often align with reality but, after the past two weeks, it’s difficult to argue with that blended hemisphere seeding.
The real story, though, is any of those nations, on their day, could knock over the other. England proved as much with their stunning upset of Ireland at Twickenham in the Six Nations. Ireland doubled down on that assertion by trumping the world champion Springboks courtesy of Ciaran Frawley’s series-squaring drop goal in Durban last weekend.
England, with a dollop more killer instinct and finishing, could have emerged with a famous win on New Zealand soil instead of their familiar suitcase of what if moments.
As is now commonplace, the July and November international windows are an unbalanced arena. The first window involves northern nations travelling at the end of their long seasons while the south, in this instance with several new coaching teams, attempt to gel in a matter of weeks. November then flips the script.
The World Cup is, therefore, rugby’s only true level playing field.
Those imbalances aside, the Springboks and Ireland further entrenched their at-times bitter rivalry by splitting their series with two gripping and brutal encounters that left two players with broken legs.
While the margin of defeat flattered Ireland in the first Test, dogged determination and clutch execution drove the Irish to level the ledger and cement their position as neck-and-neck with the Boks for rugby’s supremacy in the rematch.
The All Blacks, following their one-point World Cup final defeat, are ranked third but in the early stages of Scott Robertson’s tenure they appear vulnerable after their extensive influential departures.
An unconvincing 2-0 home series success against England buys Robertson and his new coaching team valuable victories and breathing room as they shift focus to Fiji in San Diego this weekend. Those wins do not, however, paper over multiple cracks that could be further exploited in challenging away assignments this year. Nine Tests on foreign soil, particularly those against the Springboks, times two, Ireland, England and France, promise to reveal whether Robertson can carry his unrivalled Super Rugby success to the game’s top echelon.
France occupies fourth in the official seedings which is, perhaps, too low for a team that, with South Africa, boasts the greatest depth in the world game.
At home, at their best, France are incredibly difficult to counter. France aren’t at their best, though. Rather, they appear to be suffering something of a post-World Cup hangover – and an overreliance on Antoine Dupont’s brilliance.
Given France left their Top 14 finalists at home for their dysfunctional tour of Argentina, which was marred by the fallout surrounding racism and sexual assault allegations, it is impossible to grasp a true read of their status.
France’s disregard for the July Test window will be brought into sharp view by plans to send another second-string team to New Zealand next year. With the Nations Championship scheduled to start in 2026, France have next to no hope of genuinely challenging for that inaugural prize should they continue that approach.
Rounding out the elite contenders is England. With Steve Borthwick steering their evolving ship, and a settled coaching team locked in, England presents a strong case for a resurgent trajectory.
While little separates world rugby’s top five, Australia and Wales’ competitive series paints a stark break to the remainder of the field.
With 11 tries their series did not lack for entertainment but in all aspects, it was several notches below events in South Africa.
Wales, despite falling to nine straight losses under Warren Gatland, improved across the two Tests. Yet they remain at a low ebb in their concerning development cycle. In blunt terms, other than Aaron Wainwright, Rio Dyer and Liam Williams, Wales do not possess the cattle to compete with rugby’s traditional superpowers. The Wallabies, in their first outings with Joe Schmidt at the helm, offer cause for tentative hope. After the brief but destructive Eddie Jones era that concluded with Australia’s worst World Cup result in history, any progress is welcome.
While the Wallabies will be pleased to emerge with two victories, blowing a 17-0 lead in the second Test in Melbourne underlines improvements required before the Rugby Championship.
Schmidt, a notoriously tough task master, will be all too well aware flaws remain but the overseas contingent that includes Will Skelton, Samu Kerevi and Marika Koroibete should help progress the baby steps.
The Rugby Championship is Test rugby’s next meaty yardstick. November then awaits to determine any seismic shifts in the traditional balance of power.