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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
TROON, Scotland — The Scottish weather turned the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon Golf Club into a day of survival on Saturday.
Ireland’s Shane Lowry went from being the leader to ninth place in what seemed like a blink of an eye. The 2019 Open Championship winner wasn’t the only one who fell victim to cold rain and stiff winds, especially on the second nine.
“That’s the hardest nine holes I think you could ever play in golf right now,” said two-time major championship winner Dustin Johnson.
While clearer skies are expected for the final round on Sunday, wind might still be a factor.
One thing is clear: It should be an exciting finish with a dozen golfers within four shots of leader Billy Horschel. Here’s a look at the top contenders for the Claret Jug:
Billy Horschel (4 under)
Why he’ll win: Everything is working well right now for Horschel, who has bounced back from a rough 2023 season with some great golf. He captured the Corales Puntacana Championship, an opposite-field event, on April 21 and tied for eighth at the PGA Championship.
This week, Horschel leads the field in strokes gained: total (12.24) and is sixth in approach (6.10), 14th around the green (2.35) and 17th off the tee (2.76). On Saturday, he did sublime work around the green, getting up and down from greenside bunkers for a birdie on No. 4 and par saves on Nos. 14 and 16.
Why he won’t win: Horschel has never slept on a 54-hole lead in a major championship. He hasn’t even been in the mix in the final 18 holes of majors with just one top-five finish in 42 career starts.
“I love it,” Horschel said. “I’ve worked my entire life to be in this position. Listen, I’ve been in the lead many times going into a final round. Obviously, this is a major. It means a little bit more. We all know that. We know what this means to everyone. I know what it means to my legacy in the game of golf and what I want to do and accomplish.
“But I’m excited to be here. I’ve wanted to be here my entire life. I’m finally here. I’m embracing it.”
Why he’ll win: The majors monkey is off his back after he finally captured a Wanamaker Trophy at the PGA Championship in May. He has been the most consistent player in the majors this season, finishing eighth at the Masters and tying for seventh at the U.S. Open. He has at least one top 10 finish in a major every season since turning pro in 2017.
Why he won’t win: The golf gods won’t let him get greedy? He would become the first golfer since Brooks Koepka in 2018 (U.S. Open and PGA Championship) to capture two majors in one season. His putter has been good this week, but he is known to go cold at the wrong times too.
Why he’ll win: He’s overdue. The five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t performed well in the majors until this week with only one top-10 finish in his past 17 starts. He seemed to have a breakthrough with a tie for ninth at the U.S. Open in June. He’s too talented not to perform better in the big four.
Why he won’t win: Burns was another golfer who benefited from having an early tee time. He had eight birdies in his round of 6-under 65. Will his red-hot putter — he ranks third in strokes gained: putting (5.70) — continue to hold up? He would be the first golfer since Jack Fleck at the 1955 U.S. Open to win a major after opening with a score of 76 or worse.
Why he’ll win: The Englishman figures to have a partisan crowd rooting for him as well. He has more experience than nearly all of the other contenders with 21 starts in The Open. He has avoided mistakes with only four bogeys or worse in the first 54 holes.
Why he won’t win: History isn’t on Rose’s side. An Englishman hasn’t won The Open since Nick Faldo in 1992. If Rose were to win, it would have been 4,053 days since his last major championship win at the 2013 U.S. Open. That would be the longest stretch in history. Julius Boros went 4,026 days between winning the 1952 U.S. Open and 1963 U.S. Open.
Why he’ll win: The South African matched Sam Burns for the best round on Saturday with a 6-under 65. He had six birdies in an eight-hole stretch en route to a front-nine 30. He’s a four-time winner on the DP World Tour, so he has closed out victories before.
Why he won’t win: Lawrence started the third round 10 shots behind leader Shane Lowry, and he undoubtedly caught a break with an earlier tee time. He didn’t have to play in the cold rain and stiff winds on the back nine. He’ll be playing in the final group on Sunday with Horschel, which he’s never done in a major. His best previous finish in the big four was a tie for 42nd at the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews in Scotland.
Why he’ll win: Few golfers on tour control the ball as well as Henley, who posted a 5-under 66 on Saturday. He had six birdies in the first 12 holes and just one bogey on No. 15. Henley is seventh in strokes gained: approach (6.09) this week and has hit 70.4 percent of greens in regulation.
Why he won’t win: Henley has struggled in the past when he’s in the hunt at majors. In the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines outside San Diego, he had a share of the lead in each of the first three rounds. He carded a 5-over 76 in the final round and tied for 13th. He did card a 3-under 67 in the final round of the U.S. Open in June to tie for seventh.
Why he’ll win: He’s the Cinderella story and will have the crowd behind him. The 29-year-old son of a pig and cow farmer, Brown isn’t supposed to be near the top of the leaderboard. He made the field by sinking a 20-foot putt on the 18th hole of qualifying. He missed cuts in six of his past eight starts on the DP World Tour.
For the most part, he has shown nerves of steel while competing against the world’s best this week. Brown has a red-hot putter, leading the field in strokes gained: putting (7.67), draining more than 328 feet of putts.
Why he won’t: Golfers don’t win majors in their debuts. He would become only the fourth golfer since 1900 to win in his major championship debut — Francis Ouimet (1913 U.S. Open), Ben Curtis (2003 Open) and Keegan Bradley (2011 PGA Championship) were the others.
Why he’ll win: The world No. 1 golfer has already won six times this season, including his second victory at the Masters in April. He came from behind after 36 holes in six of his 11 stroke-play victories in his PGA Tour career, including three when he trailed by six strokes or more: the 2022 WM Phoenix Open, 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship in March.
Scheffler hasn’t had his A-game at Royal Troon this week, but the leaders haven’t distanced themselves, so he’s still within striking distance on the scoreboard.
Why he won’t win: Scheffler hasn’t had many putts fall this week. He ranks 114th in strokes gained: putting (-1.61) over the first 54 holes and was 78th out of 80 players (-3.20) on Saturday. Sooner or later, Scheffler’s putts figure to start falling — or maybe not.
“It was just another one of those days,” Scheffler said. “I think about the putts I hit on 8 and 9 where I look up and I think it’s going in, and it goes up to the hole and it lips out. They’re not the truest of surfaces. They’re really good for links, but they’re obviously not perfect, and it just hops off line and didn’t go in.
“It can be frustrating, but I felt like today was another one of those days where I just did a really good job of not getting overly frustrated, staying in a good head space and did a good job of really staying in the tournament.”
Shane Lowry (1 under)
Why he’ll win: He was the second-round leader and was cruising until he ran into trouble on the par-3 eighth hole on Saturday. After making a double-bogey 5 on the hole known as Postage Stamp, he made five bogeys on the back nine for a 6-over 76. Until then, he battled the wind and rain better than anyone else in the field.
Why he won’t win: Lowry looked downright uncomfortable and missed two putts that were about five feet. He hit his approach shot on No. 18 a couple of rows into the grandstands. His mojo might be gone. Can he regain his confidence after such a forgettable finish on Saturday?
Why he’ll win: After grinding to keep himself in the tournament for the weekend, Thomas made six birdies in his first 12 holes on Saturday to get himself in striking distance. He is one of the better players in the world with a wedge in his hands and plays with a lot of creativity around the greens. He’s a two-time PGA Championship winner and has performed under pressure before. He is using a new putter and has caught fire on the greens, gaining 3.37 strokes on the field.
Why he won’t win: Thomas’ form hasn’t been great the past couple of seasons, and his game still seems to be quite volatile. He carded a 3-under 68 in the first round and followed it with a 7-over 78 on Saturday.
Why he’ll win: The 44-year-old former Masters champion relishes the chance to play a good links golf course, and he has looked right at home at Royal Troon, especially on Saturday when he posted a 5-under 66 before the rain came. His work around the green has been spectacular, gaining 3 strokes on the field.
Why he won’t win: Scott didn’t even think he’d be in the mix with so many golfers in front of him when he walked off the course on Saturday. Maybe he is too far back with so many great ones ahead of him.
“Well, I’m probably not going to be in the mix, let’s be honest,” Scott said. “I’m likely nine shots behind, seven to nine shots behind, I would guess. If I am, then that’s a bonus, but I’m going to need wind and everything to be in my favor to kind of be in the mix.”
The wind was in his favor and he’s only four shots back.