The Chicago White Sox didn’t deal their most coveted pitcher at the MLB trade deadline. The San Diego Padres went all-in for a bullpen upgrade. And the Los Angeles Dodgers in a last-minute flurry landed this deadline’s top starting pitcher.
Which clubs made the right calls? What should we believe (or not believe) about the rest of the baseball season? Now that the dust has settled from the 2024 trade deadline, we asked our ESPN MLB experts to debate what’s real — and what’s not — moving forward.
Real or not: The Dodgers are now the team to beat in all of MLB coming out of the deadline
Alden Gonzalez: Not — mostly because the makeup of the Dodgers’ roster is still very much unsettled. They have a lot of depth and a lot of versatility but also a lot of injuries and a lot of uncertainty. The Dodgers don’t know where their two new utility players, Tommy Edman and Amed Rosario, will spend most of their time, largely because Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas are on the injured list. They don’t know where Mookie Betts, their superstar right fielder-turned-second baseman-turned-shortstop, will play when he returns from a fractured left hand. They don’t know when Max Muncy, a key middle-of-the-order bat, will come back from his oblique strain. And they don’t know when — or if — Yoshinobu Yamamoto will rejoin their rotation.
Make no mistake: The Dodgers did well at the deadline. They pivoted to versatile impact players when they couldn’t get the every-day outfielder they preferred, were nonetheless able to land an elite center-field defender in Kevin Kiermaier and, most importantly, got the front-line starting pitcher they wanted in Jack Flaherty. But their roster — unlike that of the Phillies, for example — is still littered with unknowns.
Jesse Rogers: Not. They did well in their trades, but they also filled holes that the Phillies and other top teams didn’t necessarily have. Obviously, if Edman catches lightning, Michael Kopech‘s incredible potential is unlocked and Flaherty has the best two months of his life, then these past few days will look really good. But I don’t think it’s the Dodgers and everyone else. It’s the Dodgers with everyone else. There are a handful of elite teams, not just L.A.
Real or not: The Padres are a legitimate threat to win the National League after their reliever spree at the deadline
Gonzalez: Real. One of San Diego general manager A.J. Preller’s mottos is that you need high-end players to continually advance through the postseason. It’s what drove him to Juan Soto and Josh Hader two summers ago and, to a lesser extent, what drove him now to Tanner Scott, arguably the best reliever available but one who was hardly ever linked to the Padres.
The Padres’ biggest need ahead of the trade deadline was starting pitching, but they pivoted to an impact reliever when they couldn’t meet the demands at the top of the starters’ market. Not getting that type of starter could ultimately hurt. (Joe Musgrove has had two elbow-related stints on the IL, though the Padres seem optimistic, and Yu Darvish is dealing with a family issue, with no telling when he’ll return.) But the Padres can now shorten games with the best of them.
Their roster might be the most well-balanced among the NL wild-card hopefuls.
Kiley McDaniel: Real. The Padres sat at 63% playoff odds entering Tuesday. After acquiring Jason Adam and Scott (and to a lesser degree Martin Perez and Bryan Hoeing), they added a win or two to their expected record. That might not seem like a lot, but they’re at a high-leverage part of the win curve in the thick of the playoff race.
More importantly, the best relievers on a playoff team have an outsize impact in October, with a chance that each one could pitch in every postseason game given the spaced-out scheduling and tighter games as compared to the regular season. The Padres added to their one-two bullpen punch of Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada, effectively only needing five innings from their starters in the postseason. I can’t think of a team with a four-headed bullpen monster like this in the past; it fits Preller’s personality to keep innovating roster management and turning the dial to 11 once he picks a direction. If the offense does its job, that’s a winning playoff formula — as long as the Padres get in the tournament.
Rogers: Real. The trade waters were so muddy for Crochet at the end, there was good reason to bounce this to the winter. And the White Sox can still get plenty of value for him in the offseason when he’s fully stretched out for next year with two years remaining on his contract. Robert, on the other hand, is so injury-prone that if the White Sox could have pounced, they should have. However, he is another player whom they can get great value for if he can finish the season on the field. His talent is undeniable.
McDaniel: Real. If not for Crochet’s contract request ahead of the deadline, he should’ve been dealt and likely would’ve drawn the best return. But it made sense to hang on to Crochet given the hesitation around the league given his innings limitation on top of a contract extension that would have to start from scratch with almost no comparable deals and a ticking clock. Now, Crochet seems quite likely to move over the winter when the innings limit becomes mostly eliminated as a problem and there’s time to hammer out a usage plan before the season.
Robert represents a tough situation: He is having his worst season since his rookie year but has star upside (4.9 WAR last season) with three years of team control left after this campaign. There’s a real chance he bounces back next year, and the White Sox would get more for him next deadline even with one less year of control. But if he splits the difference between his 2023 and 2024 performance, moving him now would have made more sense. I’m inclined to move on to building the next core of a competitive White Sox club, and the landscape will be more open in the winter when everyone can reset their rosters. I’d have been open to dealing Robert now, but I can see the thought process behind waiting a bit longer; it’s a real risk, however, to hold off for 12 months and hope things go better, instead of having a plan.
Real or not: The Yankees passed the Orioles as the American League East’s best team at the deadline
David Schoenfield: Not. Look, the Orioles have not played well in July. And I certainly would have liked for them to swing bigger; Jack Flaherty and/or one of the big bullpen arms to have been traded (Tanner Scott, Carlos Estevez, Jason Adam) would have been a nice upgrade. I also get that the prices paid for those relievers was pretty high. But that’s the point: The Orioles played it safe.
Still, they did add much-needed rotation depth in Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers; I would have no issues running out Eflin as my No. 3 starter in a playoff series behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. The offense is still neck and neck with the Yankees for best in the AL — although I don’t quite get the Eloy Jimenez trade. Maybe the Orioles see something they think they can fix. Meanwhile, the Yankees made a couple of moves — but they didn’t address a starting rotation that had a 5.37 ERA in June and 4.86 in July then saw Gerrit Cole pull out of his Tuesday start with fatigue. Hmm.
Jorge Castillo: Not. The Yankees addressed their two priorities, improving the bullpen with much-needed swing-and-miss technicians and adding another potent bat to lengthen the lineup. But the moves themselves aren’t enough to say they are now the AL East favorites. Whether they pass the Orioles depends on if players entrenched in their roles perform better down the stretch. That group includes Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres in the lineup; Cole, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman in the rotation; and Clay Holmes out of the bullpen.
The Orioles could have gone for it but avoided risk. Still, with the players they added to that loaded lineup and Burnes atop the rotation, they got better. Jackson Holliday, the sport’s consensus No. 1 prospect, was on his way to join the team Tuesday too, serving as a reminder of the young talent the Orioles have at their disposal — in the majors and minors.
Real or not: The Mets are a 2024 playoff team after their deadline additions
Castillo: Real. The Mets didn’t need to break open the prospect bank for a colossal move to remain on the path to a wild-card spot. They needed to raise the pitching staff’s floor to better complement an elite offense, and they did just that. Paul Blackburn should at least eat valuable innings after the Mets recently lost Kodai Senga (calf) for the remainder of the season and Christian Scott (elbow) for about a month. Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Huascar Brazoban should improve a bullpen with a 4.41 ERA since June 1. The Mets have had the best record in baseball over the past six-plus weeks. These moves should help sustain them down the stretch.
Schoenfield: Real. They didn’t make any impact moves, but they improved around the edges with Jesse Winker (who gets on base and helps the lineup against right-handed pitching), some bullpen players in Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Huascar Brazoban, and a rotation option in Paul Blackburn. Nothing too exciting there, but the Mets have the best record in the majors since June 12 thanks to a lineup that has scored the most runs. The Kodai Senga injury, in his first start of the season, was a big blow, but I think this momentum continues. I’m picking the Padres, Diamondbacks and Mets as my NL wild-card teams — with the Braves missing out.