The contenders at the 2024 Olympic Games women’s soccer tournament are down to the final eight as the United States gears up for a quarterfinal clash on Saturday against Japan.
The USWNT won all its games in the group stage under new coach Emma Hayes in emphatic style, beating Zambia, Germany and Australia. After a poor showing last summer at the World Cup, the U.S. is showing progress, but can it clinch a medal at this summer’s Games?
We asked our writers Sam Borden and Jeff Kassouf to answer some of our burning questions from the group stage and tee up the knockouts.
1. What’s the biggest change you’ve noticed under new coach Emma Hayes?
Borden: I think Ryan O’Hanlon did a really fantastic statistical analysis of the USWNT’s games so far under Hayes, and the numbers clearly back up what I’ve seen on the field here — the U.S. is playing with the ball more and not necessarily rushing up-field the way they often have in the past. Subbing Mallory Swanson in for veteran attacker Alex Morgan has given the forwards a vibrancy that fans haven’t seen in a while and so far, it’s been excellent. This U.S. team has a discernible (and entertaining) philosophy, and they have players who are skilled enough to deliver. As a viewer, that’s something that’s enjoyable to watch.
Kassouf: Much of what Hayes has brought to the table is intangible. There was never a lack of talent on this team, but collectively, it struggled with a purpose and identity at and in the buildup to the 2023 World Cup. Some of that is what has been missing: the belief, the direction, the confidence. It’s easy to see how Hayes evokes that even from a public perspective, and we are only seeing — maybe — 5% of her total work. Eight of the 11 starters are carryovers from the World Cup (and Swanson was injured in all-world form, not dropped), so the changes here aren’t entirely about personnel. Tactically, this team is more flexible after being too rigid last year.
2. Who is the player that has impressed the most and who has disappointed?
Borden: For impressed, I’ll say Sophia Smith — really, it’s the entire front three but I’ve appreciated seeing the way Smith is adapting to playing differently with the national team — as a more aggressive, around-the-goal forward — compared to the way she operates in club soccer. Smith knows it’s a work-in-progress, but it’s the mental switch that is fascinating to see.
For disappointed, it’s hard to pick one person after three results that have been so positive — I guess maybe you could say that Rose Lavelle, who has had her minutes managed, hasn’t delivered the kind of performances we’re used to seeing from her in her limited time on the field? I’d call her grade more “incomplete” than disappointing though.
Kassouf: The other obvious answer beyond Smith is Trinity Rodman. I don’t think the public truly appreciates the fact that Rodman is the only player to have appeared in every game since the start of 2023. That might have been a normal stat in the old days, but this is a team that has undergone a significant overhaul, and her quality has been such that she has been the one constant. She is a two-way player who gets credit for scoring goals and executing flashy nutmegs, but you’ll also find her deep in her own box covering for her fullback. That’s why she’s indispensable. We shouldn’t go without mentioning Naomi Girma here, either, after shutting down the unstoppable Barbra Banda for the second time in two months (for club and country).
There hasn’t been a lot to dislike about the USWNT’s time in France outside of injury concerns and Sam Coffey‘s looming suspension, but I’d say the USWNT is going to need more from Lindsey Horan going forward. She struggled against Germany with a pair of high-profile turnovers deep in her own half, and the Germans — who could be an opponent in a potential rematch in the knockout stage — seemed to zero in on trying to lock her out of the game.
That performance was the exception rather than the rule for Horan, but Coffey’s suspension means Horan will likely need to play in a tweaked role against Japan that includes even more defensive duties. The USWNT needs her best, especially as a deep-lying distributor.
3. What will determine the game between USWNT and Japan in the quarterfinals?
Borden: Like the U.S., Japan’s reckoning with the global rise of women’s soccer has tempered their previously-astronomical expectations in major tournaments, but there is no doubt the Japanese are still formidable. I expect this game to hinge on how well the U.S. is able to maintain its shape in the defensive third of the field.
Without deep-lying midfielder Sam Coffey, who is suspended, and with Tierna Davidson expected to be out injured (likely replaced again by Emily Sonnett), the U.S. will be under pressure to be stout in front of goal as the Japanese, coming off a victory over Brazil in their last group stage match, will attack from different angles. The American front three has been excellent in this tournament, but this is a matchup where the back four will be in the spotlight.
Kassouf: I agree that continuing to maintain a strong defensive shape will be crucial. Japan scored 31 seconds into the match when these two teams met in April (a 2-1 U.S. victory), and the USWNT had to fight from behind after Girma went off injured early. One interesting piece of that match is that Japan was comfortable playing in transition moments, which has not historically been a piece of success for them. The USWNT loves transition, but in Japan, they face a team with the technical ability to execute (Did you see Momoko Tanikawa‘s stoppage-time winner against Brazil?) with a new precision to strike on the counter.
They could also potentially present the challenge of a five-back with better organization than Australia, and that is a challenge the USWNT could struggle to solve. International soccer is often about moments of transition, and that will be a defining element of this game as well.
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Questions USWNT will have to answer to beat Japan
Jeff Kassouf reacts to the USWNT’s 2-1 win over Australia that books them a spot in the women’s soccer quarterfinals vs. Japan.
4. Will the US win gold? Why or why not?
Borden: Normally, I’m not much of a “gut feel” guy when it comes to these sorts of things and there’s no question that, on paper, Spain is the class of the tournament. The defending world champions have most of their players here in France and there’s no reason to think they won’t be there in the end. The recipe isn’t great for the U.S. either — a new coach, different tactics and all that — but I still have a feeling that if we get a Spain-U.S. final, something special will happen for the Americans. Hayes is a winner and I have a sense this team will deliver the ultimate bounce-back from last year’s World Cup downfall: a gold medal.
Kassouf: I don’t have a strong argument against that, Sam. Tournaments are about momentum given how level the field of talent can be, and the U.S. has plenty of it. However, there are other teams riding that, from Spain, as you mentioned, to the incredible and ridiculous story that is Canada right now, having also won all three games on the field but been deducted six points. Should they both advance, we are staring at another USA-Canada semifinal, a rematch of the 2021 Olympic semifinal that Canada won in a shootout.
I like Spain on the other side of the bracket, too. We are still getting ahead of ourselves, obviously, but I think bronze or silver is realistic and entirely respectable. Any medal would signal a significant response to the 2023 World Cup.