The US Open begins Monday and defending champions Coco Gauff and Novak Djokovic are both in the draw. But are either of them the favorite, with Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and so many others in the mix? We asked our experts:
Who will win the women’s singles title, and why?
Bill Connelly: This is a strange draw. So many of the best players are either battling rough patches of form or coming off of injuries. Granted, “failing to win three tournaments in a row (while still winning 10 matches in them)” is what constitutes a rough patch for Swiatek, but her comprehensive loss to Sabalenka in the Cincinnati semifinals made me think maybe Sabalenka is the player to beat.
Sabalenka rolled through four top-30 opponents without dropping a set, and she not only beat Swiatek 6-3, 6-3, she dominated. She created 15 break points to Swiatek’s six, she broke serve in five of nine Swiatek service games, and while her serve wasn’t 100%, it was more than good enough.
Sabalenka’s draw’s not exactly an easy task, but if Madison Keys (her potential fourth-round opponent) isn’t 100% healthy, she might not get a strong test until the quarterfinals. A favorable draw for a three-time semifinalist (and one-time finalist) who’s also the most in-form of the elite players? That seems like a good combination.
Tom Hamilton: Sabalenka. And this will be a Sabalenka who is fired up after her recent batch of physical setbacks. She lost in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros to Mirra Andreeva while suffering with an illness, then was forced to withdraw from Wimbledon with a shoulder injury she picked up in Berlin and then stepped away from the Paris Olympics as she didn’t want to transition back to clay. So it’s full steam ahead for Sabalenka on the hard court, and having taken the Australian Open earlier this year on the same surface, she’ll look to conquer New York.
D’Arcy Maine: OK, sure, I agree that Sabalenka is absolutely the favorite at this point, and for good reason, but I’m going to go with Swiatek. Clearly disappointed by her bronze medal finish in Paris and likely motivated by that and her semifinal loss to Sabalenka in Cincinnati, it’s hard to think she won’t be on a mission to avenge the past few months and could very much win major title No. 6 in the process. Her path to the final certainly has its challenges — with Andreeva potentially awaiting in the fourth round, Pegula or Danielle Collins as likely quarterfinal opponents and Elena Rybakina or her noted nemesis Jelena Ostapenko (who has won all four of the previous matches) in the semifinals — but it certainly seems doable for Swiatek. Not to mention, when Swiatek is locked in and totally focused, well, watch out everyone else. She is nearly impossible to beat and, having won the title in 2022, knows exactly what it takes to hoist the trophy.
Who will win the men’s singles title, and why?
Connelly: I think Djokovic’s going to do it again. He’s on the opposite side of the bracket as Sinner, Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev; it’s nearly as great a draw as what he had at Wimbledon, when he made the finals with one knee. He’s had more recovery time, and after winning the Olympic gold medal — over Alcaraz, no less, just weeks after Alcaraz blew him out in the Wimbledon final — Djokovic is likely to play free and confident.
This is as smooth a road as Djokovic could have asked for, and with Sinner looking less than 100% and Alcaraz short-circuiting in his lone hard-court tuneup, Djokovic might be the most in-form of the top players too. Here comes Slam title No. 25?
Hamilton: Djokovic is in a brilliant place to win his 25th Grand Slam. The draw has opened beautifully for him, and having become just the fifth player in singles to secure the Golden Slam after winning the men’s singles in Paris, expect this to come at the perfect time for a revitalized Djokovic. He’s completed one of his ultimate career goals and now comes the mission to extend his tally of Slams in the men’s singles. Alcaraz has looked a little bit off recently — and uncharacteristically rattled in Cincinnati — while Sinner has had his off-court distractions.
Djokovic has won here four times before, and come Sept. 8, he should be lifting the US Open trophy again.
Maine: This question is considerably harder for me to answer today than it was just a few days ago. As I watched Sinner’s run in Cincinnati — in which he defeated Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe in three consecutive days to claim the title — I felt confident the US Open was his to win. However, as he now finds himself facing scrutiny and questions (and maybe even some heckles and jeers from the New York crowd) due to the revelation that he had twice tested positive for a banned substance in March, I’m simply not sure how he will be able to fare mentally.
If he’s able to remain focused and play the same level he did in Cincinnati, he certainly can win it all but there are simply too many “what its” for me at this point to feel convinced of that. Instead, I’ll take Alcaraz, who might be playing with a slight chip on his shoulder after the Olympics and his (brief) start to the hard-court season. He thrives on the New York energy and has proven just how good he is in best-of-five environments and when major titles are on the line.