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Timothy Bradley Jr.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga is not the blockbuster matchup some might expect to see during the festive Mexican Independence Day weekend. Instead of facing David Benavidez in the fight the boxing world wants to see, pitting the unified super middleweight champion against the man who has been his mandatory challenger for two years, Canelo chose Berlanga as his foe in a fight that feels more like a financial move than a competitive one.
While undefeated, Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) is an inexperienced contender having only a puncher’s chance against Canelo. A knockout win for Berlanga seems far-fetched, as Canelo’s chin is nothing short of granite. Canelo has never been down as a professional, and the last time he was hurt was in his win against Jose Miguel Cotto in May 2010. In addition, his experience is monumentally far above Berlanga’s. Canelo will be fighting in his 42nd 12-rounder and his 25th fight for at least one major world title. He’s fought three Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers.
ESPN ranks Berlanga as the fifth best super middleweight in the world, coming off the biggest win of his career against Padraig McCrory via sixth-round KO in February. It was Berlanga’s first KO in two years, after starting his career with 16 consecutive first-round KO wins. In today’s boxing, title shots are often handed out even to fighters coming off losses. In contrast, a fighter can be rated as a No. 1 contender and still not get a title shot. Champions frequently choose low-hanging fruit — low-risk opponents, prioritizing financial gain over competitive matchups. This trend diminishes the prestige of championship opportunities.
Canelo-Berlanga is definitely about business. I question whether Berlanga could even beat some of the other contenders in his division, fighters such as Caleb Plant, Diego Pacheco, Christian Mbilli and Jamie Munguia. Canelo, even on the tail end of his career, is a tall task for the Puerto Rican. Berlanga will likely be a student, just like Munguia was when he fought Canelo back in May.
Let’s look at the Canelo vs. Berlanga matchup, what each fighter does well and their chances to win the fight.
The matchup
More times than not, experience determines the outcome of fights. Berlanga is a rising contender with potential, but his track record hasn’t been that impressive. He has been rocked, hurt and knocked down by lesser opposition than Canelo. In 2021, Marcelo Caceres was able to floor Berlanga with a left in the ninth round of a fight that Berlanga ultimately won by unanimous decision.
There is no doubt that Berlanga has a big heart filled with pride. But Canelo is an elite pound-for-pound fighter who has seen every boxing style in his illustrious 19-year career. Canelo’s wealth of knowledge and ability to dominate and control the center of the ring are exceptional. That was especially displayed in his last outing against the talented, all-action Munguia, who is similar in size to Berlanga’s 6-foot frame and 72-inch reach.
Canelo’s experience edge comes from facing numerous high-caliber opponents throughout his career. His maturity in the ring is evident in his tactical, technical approach, his adaptability and his composed demeanor under pressure. Canelo delivers punches with pinpoint accuracy and power, is equipped with a diverse punch selection and understands how to control an entire fight round by round, minute by minute and second by second.
Berlanga has pop on his punches, but he is still navigating the complexities of the upper echelon of boxing. These include pacing, energy management, on-the-fly adjustments and reading tendencies to manipulate opponents to do what he wants them to do.
His inexperience can lead to poor decisions and frustration. In 2022 against Alexis Angulo, Berlanga, who was under a ton of pressure in a fast-paced fight, bit Angulo on the neck. He received a six-month suspension from the New York State Athletic Commission for that incident. Berlanga was also warned for a deliberate elbow infraction in his last fight against McCrory, again when he was under pressure. Canelo’s attack will increase if he senses discomfort or frustration in Berlanga’s body language and lack of resistance.
Understanding Berlanga’s game and style
Berlanga is fundamentally a boxer who keeps both hands high, cocked and loaded, and who thrives on maintaining a comfortable pace and a safe range for his offense. His success depends on his ability to control the ring using techniques such as a vertical jab (thumb facing up), pull counter right hands and one-two combinations (jab and backhand cross). Defensively, he relies on stepbacks, occasional slip counters, a high guard and a catch-and-punch countering system. However, Berlanga is vulnerable to uppercuts and body shots when defending on the inside, as he leans forward over his front knee when under fire. During his lateral movement, he crosswalks and cross steps (moves his lead left foot first when moving right, and vice versa).
Berlanga’s lateral movement could be both an asset and a liability against Canelo, who excels at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. But if done correctly, ring generalship can offset Canelo’s high-guard defensive system by forcing him to reset his feet, creating counterpunching opportunities. Berlanga’s looping punches may work against Canelo’s defense, especially around the guards and with punches underneath like the uppercut through the high guards.
Under severe pressure, Berlanga’s mentality changes significantly when his sought-after space is compromised. This could be a disadvantage against Canelo, a master at closing distance and imposing his will on opponents. Berlanga’s ability to handle this pressure will be something to watch for.
Berlanga is not a bad fighter by any means, and he’s gotten better after reuniting with his old trainer, Marc Farris, a real student of the game. With a solid amateur background, Berlanga understands the fundamental boxing philosophy of hitting without getting hit.
How can Berlanga win?
Berlanga has recently developed valuable patience in the ring, becoming more calculated and a defensive-minded boxer-puncher. He is now setting up various punches, including a lead left uppercut off an inside slip and a powerful timed overhand right to the head. He anticipates his opponent’s disengagement, punching when they are repositioning. However, against a champion like Canelo, he must elevate his game, believe in and execute his game plan while mitigating his weaknesses and mistakes.
Canelo is heavy on his front foot as he slowly marches forward, loading his lead (left) leg for his infamous left hook off slip counters, level changes and high guard traps. An excellent jab, combined with probes, posture-breaking jab controls, lateral movement and an outstanding defense, can disrupt Canelo’s potent offense. Keeping Canelo off balance and continuously resetting his feet is extremely important for Berlanga, as punchers like Canelo prefer stationary targets over elusive ones.
Attempting to outmuscle Canelo in a blow-for-blow frenzy wouldn’t be a wise strategy. Not many fighters can withstand Canelo’s precision and punching power. Berlanga has to outbox and outthink Canelo, build his mentality through rigorous training and use fear to catapult his performance and abilities to pull off this upset. I wonder how much of Berlanga’s mentality is on trying to win and how strongly he truly believes he can win, because that matters. After all, Canelo believes he will win, and that’s why he picked Berlanga as an opponent. This fight gives the champ a competitive edge with his experience, pre-fight visualization and knowing how to convert fear into a superpower.
How can Canelo win?
Canelo’s fighting style is formulated around the main criteria for scoring a fight: effective punching. His boxing style offsets Berlanga’s boxer-puncher approach. It’s a high-pressure counterpunching style that delivers hard, heavy strikes with accurate placement. He sets up his offense off high guard traps, slips, step-backs and feints. Canelo can win this battle with his experience, taking advantage of what Berlanga gives him. I suspect Berlanga will use his jab plenty, but I’ve noticed a pattern in Berlanga’s jabbing: He throws a single mid-range jab, promptly positioning himself in range to be countered by a right cross or a left hook. Range recognition is something Berlanga struggles with. At times, he is at the proper range to land offense, but more times than not, he overcommits or lunges forward, remaining weighed onto his front foot in position to be countered.
Berlanga doesn’t do a great job at mirroring level changes. When a fighter lowers his center of gravity, the appropriate response should be to also reduce your height. Usually, a level change is followed by a setup shot upstairs. Suppose a fighter stands straight up while his opponent changes levels, and he doesn’t move quickly out of range. That fighter becomes a sitting duck for a level change counter as he anticipates a body punch, subconsciously lowering his guard and getting stuck in place to receive a devastating counter upstairs.
Look out for Canelo’s nasty level-changing lead left hook or lift right-hand feint — rotating his weight onto his lead left leg while getting his head offline to deliver his most powerful shot, the left hook to the head or body. I see Canelo’s left hook being a viable weapon in the fight, taking advantage of Berlanga’s overreaching back hand (keeping the back hand forward away from the face), anticipating a jab but receiving a left hook.
Who wins?
I always say fighters can predict the future. We know what we can and may not be able to handle. Berlanga thinks he can handle Canelo. However, he has to prove it on fight night. Compared to Canelo’s seasoned skill set, Berlanga’s inexperience will be the determining factor, not his proclaimed punching power.
I pick Canelo for the win, with the possibility of a late TKO.
Ian Parker’s best bet:
Currently sitting at -2000 (per ESPN BET), Alvarez will be looking for another victory against Berlanga and add to his extensive résumé. There is no doubt in my mind that Canelo gets the win here but at -2000, we need to look towards the rounds and props to get any value. Alvarez is better everywhere in this fight, from speed to power to experience, so for me it is not a matter of if he wins, it’s a matter of how and when. At -125 I am taking Canelo to get it done by TKO. As the fight goes on, his work to the body will take a toll on Berlanga and he will eventually get the job done.