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Victoria Matiash, Fantasy Hockey
There’s no way around it: Rostering a strong goaltending corps is paramount to enjoying fantasy success. Having played this game for over 29 years, I’ve never witnessed a manager finish top of the table with a ho-hum collection of netminders. Never. Too many categories carry too much weight. ESPN Fantasy‘s standard game rewards wins, saves, shutouts, and – this is vital – penalizes goals-allowed. In a nod to the fantasy abacus, a goalie who stops 28 of 30 shots in a 4-2 win hauls in a sparkling 5.6 points. Conversely, surrendering five goals on 31 shots in a 5-4 loss nets a loss of -4.8 points. That’s a huge, and potential very painful, swing.
The formula is simple enough. In ESPN Fantasy‘s standard game, your idyllic netminder plays a ton, wins much more often than not, while stopping the overwhelming majority of a good number of shots. In checking each and every box with aplomb, plus earning five shutouts along the way, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck finished with almost 30 more points than the games’ second-best netminder, Sergei Bobrovsky. There’s no mystery to this math.
Strategy
You want to select your No. 1 fantasy netminder early in standard ESPN Fantasy leagues. Not before a forward like Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, but not long afterward. The gap between the great and just good is considerable, as illustrated by No. 1 Hellebuyck’s 214.2 fantasy points in 2023-24 in contrast with No. 15 Ilya Sorokin’s 115.0. You want to grab an elite figure, if at all possible. To follow, zone in on your No. 2 goalie – hopefully another near-gem – two or three rounds later, depending on how the draft unravels.
Once your one-two goaltending punch is in place, feel free to gamble on a high-ceilinged sleeper or otherwise underrated performer. If they work out, fantastic, if not, you can likely exchange them for another candidate who’s exceeding expectations. Pleasant surprises emerge every single season, and often in the second half. I guarantee Charlie Lindgren‘s bust-out performance in winter’s waning months won more than a few managers their league’s ultimate crown.
Top-tier goalies I like
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators (No. 5 goaltender)
It wasn’t that long ago that Saros appeared bound for elsewhere via trade, by way paving a route for prospect Yaroslav Askarov to take over between Nashville’s pipes for the foreseeable future. Fast forward a few months and the veteran has a fresh eight-year, $61.92-million deal, while the 22-year-old Askarov finds himself 2,200 miles away in San Jose. So that settles that. Now that he’s staying put, fantasy managers can take comfort in being able to properly gauge expectations from one of the best performers in the game.
Starting more contests than any other netminder in 2023-24, Saros finished fifth overall in fantasy scoring in ESPN Fantasy standard leagues. No small feat, considering how long it took the Predators to get their collective act together. Now this club appears more dangerous than ever with the likes of Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and defender Brady Skjei in the mix. Averaging 65 games his past three campaigns, the (still only) 29-year-old appears poised to play for a club that could win 50-plus total contests all around. With hearty respect to Andrei Vasilevskiy, Igor Shesterkin, and Hellebuyck, Saros is my top fantasy netminder of choice to launch 2024-25.
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Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins (No. 10 goaltender)
There’s a new full-time goaltending sheriff in (Bean-)town. With his former tandem-mate Linus Ullmark sent to Ottawa in exchange for Joonas Korpisalo, Swayman is in position to start 55-plus games for the first time in his career. Impressive other numbers – wins, SV%, GAA – have been there since the beginning, now it’s time to amplify them with more playing time. Plus, the Bruins are better with center Elias Lindholm and defenseman Nikita Zadorov on board. Don’t be surprised if Swayman ends up a top-five fantasy goalie before all is said and done.
See also:
Mid-tier goalies to target
Jacob Markstrom, New Jersey Devils (No. 14 goaltender)
After too many months of uncertainty and disruptive drama, Markstrom is no longer a member of the Calgary Flames. A positive turn of events, considering that relationship had clearly reached its conclusion. What’s more, the former Vezina runner-up (2022) joins a club that’s set to benefit from bolstering its defense this offseason with the acquisitions of Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon. Toss in a healthy Dougie Hamilton, and the Devils appear to sport one of the better blue lines in the league. Which, while also considering the quality of talent up front, should bode rather well for Markstrom’s fantasy owners. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the veteran, who’s pleased as punch in his new Newark digs, put a bow on 2024-25 as a top-10 fantasy netminder.
Stuart Skinner, Edmonton Oilers (No. 17 goaltender)
After finishing this past regular season with the sixth-most points in ESPN Fantasy standard leagues, Skinner warrants a higher ranking ahead of this campaign. Maybe his lack of extended experience following only two full seasons remains a concern. Not to me. The Oilers are arguably a better team to launch 2024-25 than they were when coming up a game short of winning the Stanley Cup this past June. A position they found themselves in largely because of the play of their No. 1 netminder. Some managers will content themselves with securing the 25-year-old as their own top fantasy goalie. Those who snag him as their No. 2 should consider themselves all the more fortunate.
See also:
Key sleepers
Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 57 goaltender)
Are we so certain Joseph Woll is secure in starting the majority of games for the probably playoff-bound Maple Leafs instead of the fella who went 16-7-2 while posting a .925 SV% and 2.03 GAA with the Panthers this past regular season? Considering Woll’s recent health issues, I don’t feel that sure at all. I do know that Stolarz, despite seeing limited action, is a quality goaltender. Proven as such not only in Florida, but with the non-playoff Ducks two seasons earlier. At minimum, the 30-year-old should be offered the chance to spell off Woll on the regular behind a Toronto blue line that hasn’t looked this strong in years.
Ilya Samsonov, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 21 goaltender)
Sure, last year was more eventful for the 27-year-old than he would have preferred. But after stumbling through waivers, Samsonov eventually emerged from the ashes of his minor-league workout reset to wrap 2023-24 with a 18-4-2 record (.905 SV%, 2.69 GAA). Now he’s facing the fresh challenge of muscling starts away from fellow Vegas netminder Adin Hill, who’s consistently battled injuries his past three seasons. Signed to a single year for $1.8-million, the pending UFA will be inspired to make the most of every opportunity for one of the better teams in the Pacific division. Samsonov could serve as a rather pleasant fantasy surprise as a third goaltender in leagues of a reasonable size.
Late-round picks to consider
Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings (No. 29 goaltender)
One rough season does not a lousy goaltender make. While Kuemper’s second turn with the Capitals leaves much to be desired, there’s plenty of blame to be shared around in that regard. Having won a Cup with the Avalanche only two years ago, the veteran netminder boasts a long resume of playing consistently for a handful of NHL teams. Including the Kings, with whom he performed superbly, if briefly, back in 2017-18. As a defensive side, Los Angeles is a significant upgrade over the Capitals. I like Kuemper – L.A.’s undisputed No. 1 ahead of backup David Rittich – a lot as any fantasy team’s No. 3 goaltender.
Yaroslav Askarov, San Jose Sharks (No. 55 goaltender)
While there isn’t any other direction to go but upwards, the Sharks are a better team today than before GM Mike Grier strung together several offseason moves, including a deal with the Nashville Predators for what the organization hopes will be their goalie of the future. With Vitek Vanecek and Mackenzie Blackwood both on expiring contracts, who’s to suggest that future isn’t ready to rev up now? While improved, San Jose still isn’t a playoff team. This rebuilding club has the flexibility to offer Askarov, who feels he’s plenty NHL-ready right now, the opportunity to justify his 11th-overall draft selection (2020). Behind an already solid goaltending corps, the 22-year-old could develop into a rather nice fantasy surprise as a late-round grab in deeper leagues.
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Avoid in drafts at current value
Linus Ullmark, Boston Bruins (No. 7 goaltender)
The Senators won 37 games this past season with Korpisalo (0.4 FPPG), Anton Forsberg (1.1 FPPG) and (rarely) Mads Sogaard (-1.8 FPPG) patrolling the crease, combining for a 3.45 GAA. Only the Sharks, Blue Jackets, Ducks, and Blackhawks were more generous toward the opposition. Is Ullmark so great an improvement to merit selection as a No. 1 fantasy netminder? I would gently suggest no. Hey, the Vezina winner (2023) is going to play plenty – more than he did as a tandem team-member in Boston – and likely steal a few for an Ottawa club that appears to be heading in the right direction. But that formula still doesn’t add up to a seventh fantasy ranking overall.
Charlie Lindgren, Washington Capitals (No. 16 goaltender)
There’s no arguing the Capitals wouldn’t have sported any realistic chance of making the playoffs last spring without a special showing from the 30-year-old down the stretch. Full credit to Lindgren for pulling off such a notable feat. But, however impressive, that limited run – plus an admittedly stellar November – isn’t reason enough to draft him as your No. 2 netminder in most conventional fantasy leagues. While Washington’s blue line is stronger following the corralling of Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy, there remain a number of weaknesses up front. The Capitals squeaked into the postseason despite sporting a minus-37 goal differential and ninth-worst 62.26 Corsi-Against/60 (per Evolving Hockey). That probably doesn’t happen two seasons in a row.
Then there’s Logan Thompson hovering about in hopes of stealing as many starts from Lindgren as possible. Himself a pending UFA – proven competent enough when healthy enough to play for the Golden Knights three years running – the 27-year-old will endeavor to pad his resume as thickly as possible ahead of signing his next deal.
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders (No. 11 goaltender)
While we’re a stretch away from the start of training camp, never mind the regular season, Islanders’ fans already have cause for worry. During a Sept. 6 episode of his 32 Thoughts podcast, NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman suggested the organization’s best player might be hurt:
“I think Sorokin’s been battling something. The Islanders are obviously very private; Lamoriello is obviously very private. I heard that Sorokin is battling something, I don’t know how serious it is or isn’t, the agent won’t say anything out of respect for Lamoriello. I sent a note to the Islanders, but they won’t say anything.”
Hopefully this is a case of more smoke/less fire, and whatever might be ailing Sorokin is quick to heal. We’ll all get a better idea, one way or the unfortunate other, once camp opens. If it really is as bad as all that, Semyon Varlamov – presently ranked 53rd – garners much greater attention in the fantasy fold. A .917 SV% and 2.55 GAA though 163 appearances since joining the Isles in 2019 speaks to his consistency. The steadfast No. 2 radiates reliability. If Sorokin is shelved for any significant period of time, or sees his playing time significantly reduced, Varlamov could serve as an under-radar firecracker of a fantasy performer between the pipes. Especially as a No. 3 netminder.
Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks (No. 4 goaltender)
Mirroring concerns on Long Island, tidings out of Vancouver are equally, if not more, troublesome. Again according to Friedman, Demko will reportedly “play though” a chronic injury that can’t be fixed by surgery or any other procedure. Lousy news all around. Hellebuyck’s fantasy equal in earning 3.6 fantasy points/game last season when healthy, Demko now morphs into a high-risk acquisition cloaked in uncertainty. Maybe he adapts to compensate for the (presumed) lower-body issue and manages just fine. Maybe he can’t play at all. However matters unfold, the 28-year-old no longer presents as a top-tier, reliable fantasy netminder. Considering backup Arturs Silovs is also dealing with a knee issue, it will be interesting to see if (when?) Vancouver management mines the trade market for an experienced outsider. And, if so, who.
See also:
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