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Victoria Matiash, Fantasy Hockey
Midway through 2024-25, the Toronto Maple Leafs sit atop the Atlantic Division, four points clear of the Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers. Not a jarring surprise, considering this group, led by last year’s Rocket Richard Trophy winner Auston Matthews, was considered a competitive bunch even before management made some not insignificant moves in the offseason. In the East, only the Washington Capitals have a greater winning percentage. So, is it too ridiculous to consider Toronto a legit contender for the President’s Trophy?
President’s Trophy Winner, Toronto Maple Leafs +1200
The oddsmakers don’t seem to believe so, setting the current line at Even for Toronto to wrap up the season leading the Atlantic. Not unattractive odds, but less fun than the number set for Craig Berube’s bunch to finish with more points than any other team in the league. While it always requires a greater leap to side with one club versus the field, it’s also, obviously, much more rewarding.
Ramping up their physical play and committing to their new coach’s system, the Maple Leafs are tougher to compete against this season. The additions of defenders Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, forward Max Pacioretty — who has 79 hits in 28 contests — and goaltender Anthony Stolarz have all improved the makeup of this squad. John Tavares resembles his dominant self of years past, while Matthew Knies is developing into an excellent, well-rounded competitor in front of our eyes. Mitch Marner sits fourth with 56 points while, rather quietly, serving as one the game’s best two-way forwards. The newish line of Max Domi, Nicholas Robertson, and Bobby McMann is providing valuable depth the lineup previously lacked.
The defensive corps — including the new stifling duo of Tanev and Jake McCabe — has helped the team maintain a 2.76 GA/GP. They’ve won with and without their superstar captain and best netminder in Stolarz. Matthews is back now. Stolarz is scheduled to return before January’s end. Excuse the obvious, but this team is even more capable with one of the game’s best netminders. And you can count on Toronto only bringing Stolarz back when he’s fully fit and ready. There’s no rush here.
So while the Golden Knights lead the league with a .731 point percentage, and the Jets, Wild, Avalanche, Capitals and others deserve their due for recent or season-long success, the Maple Leafs appear poised to battle with the best of them. And, fully healthy, can’t be discounted as a contender to finish ahead of all others by mid-April.
Bonus bet: New York Rangers To Make The Playoffs (+240): There’s no question it’s been ugly on and off the ice in the Big Apple of late. But please remember this club, with similar personnel, won The President’s Trophy just one year ago. Far too skilled to flounder week after week, they still sit just four points out of a Wild Card spot, with a game in hand. Conceding — at least today — that the Capitals, Hurricanes, and Devils appear favored to emerge from the Metropolitan, there leaves one last position up for grabs (riding the assumption four teams advance from each Eastern division). So who? The Penguins? Blue Jackets? Flyers? Or, again, the team that accrued more points than any other only a year ago.
New York management won’t put up with stumbling through the rest of 2024-25, that’s clear. Whether the fix is internal, or some key bodies are shipped in/out, this club won’t settle with settling. Igor Shesterkin, the best-paid goaltender in the NHL, isn’t expected to be out forever (although more clarity on that injury would be nice). Adam Fox remains one of the game’s superior defenseman. Enduring disappointing campaigns, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, and Chris Kreider (IR) aren’t simply crummy all of a sudden.
Following Saturday’s lively affair with the Capitals — a 7-4 loss in which they never tossed in the towel — the Rangers turned matters around and resoundingly beat the Blackhawks 6-2. It’s something at least, and perhaps a start of a more positive stretch. Which is all they need to crawl back into the playoff conversation.
Latest odds as of publication. For latest odds movement, go to ESPN BET.
Featured game
Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers,
7:30 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center
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Maple Leafs (-1.5, +185), -130 money line
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Flyers (-1.5, -250), +110 money line
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Total 5.5: (Over -145, Under +120)
Despite coming off a rambunctious 6-4 result against the Bruins the previous day, and rolling out a rusty Dennis Hildeby between the pipes, the Maple Leafs still managed to beat a well-rested Flyers club 3-2 on Sunday. I would expect a more lopsided affair in favor of Toronto this time around. While Samuel Ersson remains hurt, projected starter Ivan Fedotov hasn’t been great (.877 SV%, 3.42GAA). Philly has won only four of their past 11, beating the Red Wings, Sharks, Ducks, and Blue Jackets. All non-contenders. Take the Leafs at -1.5 for +185.
Matthew Knies Total Goals Over 0.5 (+250). Knies clearly enjoys having Auston Matthews back in the lineup. Skating on a line with one of the league’s most dynamic forwards and Marner (no slouch himself), Knies potted a hat trick before scoring against the Flyers on Sunday. This recent flurry reminds me of when Knies potted five goals in six games back in late October.
Auston Matthews Total Shots Over 0.5 (-150). Lousy odds, but that’s because the captain likes to shoot on net a lot. He also rarely registers under 3.5 shots/game in subsequent contests. After rifling only three versus the Flyers on Sunday, I expect a larger haul in this rematch.
Tyson Foerster Total Goals Over 0.5 (+320). One of the more productive performers for the Flyers of late, Foerster has three goals in his past four games, including the opener against the Leafs over the weekend. Apparently in John Tortorella’s good books today, he’s seeing quality minutes on a scoring line and power play with Noah Cates. However, if looking to take a more conservative route, Foerster Over 1.5 shots at -165 is rather attractive.