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Neil Paine
Hard as it might be to believe, the 2024-25 NHL season is already more than halfway over: The average team has played 53% (or 43.1 out of 82 games) of the regular-season schedule by now. That means struggling squads are quickly running out of time to turn things around — a feeling of urgency made even more acute by the looming March 7 trade deadline, just 52 days from today.
There’s a hierarchy to teams in the panic-mode category, too: Some are still right in the mix, such as the Boston Bruins, with playoff odds around a coin flip despite an underperforming start. Some are hanging on by a thread, such as the Pittsburgh Penguins, knowing that they have to run up a string of wins while their rivals in the standings falter. And some, such as the Buffalo Sabres, need a miracle to keep their playoff hopes alive (or must simply decide to give up any pretense of competing down the stretch).
Let’s look at 12 teams who had designs on the playoffs before the season but have found themselves with a postseason probability around 50% or lower — sorting them into categories based on their current playoff odds and level of panic within each group.
Jump to a panic level:
Can fix this | Hanging on | Resigned to fate
We can still fix this
These are teams with playoff odds near 50-50 — so they could still make it in, but they have a lot more work to do over the next few months.
Playoff odds: 41%
Sure, they regressed after their record-setting 2022-23 campaign. (Who wouldn’t?) But the Bruins were still plenty good last season, surviving the losses of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to reach the second round of the playoffs. And they went into 2024-25 with a surprisingly young roster and the majority of the players who drove that success, aside from departed goaltender Linus Ullmark (trade) and winger Jake DeBrusk (free agency). There was no reason to think Boston would fall apart at both ends of the ice and fire former NHL Coach of the Year Jim Montgomery six weeks into the season. After showing signs of new life under new coach Joe Sacco, another recent slump has their playoff chances in jeopardy.
Must improve: The power play. Boston ranks third-to-last in scoring rate on the man advantage (13.2%), and only David Pastrnak ranks among the league’s top 60 in power-play goals (barely). The Bruins have a severe scoring outage anyway, with most of their forwards producing below their norms and their defensemen creating almost no offense — even Charlie McAvoy is struggling — so they need to strike on the power play when they have the chance.
Special panic factor: Out of tricks? They’ve already played the coaching-change card, which is usually what a team does in times like this.
Playoff odds: 47%
The Rangers are this season’s greatest embodiment of sudden-onset panic. The perennial Stanley Cup contenders were looking fine as recently as mid-November, but a mind-boggling series of losing streaks and injuries caused what once were near-certain playoff odds to abruptly fall off a cliff.
A few recent wins offer hope that the worst is in the rearview mirror, as does the return of elite netminder Igor Shesterkin from injury. But the Rangers remain well below the wild-card cut line; their playoff odds are this high only because the team’s talent and track record suggest it can rebound in the second half.
Must improve: Big-name production. There is no excuse for a team with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller (among others) to rank 20th in scoring with a minus-9 goal differential. But with the possible exception of Shesterkin, who has still been a top goalie when healthy, practically none of the big stars who lead New York’s roster have played to their potential this season.
Special panic factor: Market size. Slumps feel far worse under the NHL’s largest American microscope.
Playoff odds: 48%
The Sens are a bit of a unique fit in any one of these categories, but we think they work best under the panic-with-potential umbrella. The panic part comes because this franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017 and the team has spent a fair amount over the past few offseasons to remedy that fact, only for Ottawa to find itself just outside the playoffs (and without big offseason pickup goalie Linus Ullmark due to injury).
It’s easy for frustration to set in when a team has the young core to reach a higher level that dangles just out of reach. Then again, the potential that has perennially made Ottawa a breakout playoff pick in recent years remains intact for the league’s eighth-youngest team — the Senators actually have a positive goal differential (plus-3) on the season.
Must improve: Scoring output. As much as Ottawa’s goaltending hangs in the balance with Ullmark on injured reserve, the Senators need more production from an offense that ranks 20th in goals per game overall, and 26th in goals per minute at 5-on-5. While Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson are tracking for solid numbers, and Adam Gaudette is a pleasant surprise, Ottawa ranks 16th in points from forwards — and is tied for 29th in points from defensemen, where Jake Sanderson is the only Senator tracking for even 40 adjusted points.
Special panic factor: Another stalled rebuild. Since appearing in the 2017 conference finals, Ottawa has already gone through multiple cycles of gearing up to compete. Will the Sens really fall short of the playoffs again?
Playoff odds: 53%
After spending most of last season looking like a breakout Stanley Cup contender — and playing well against the eventual West champion Oilers in a seven-game, second-round defeat — the Canucks seemed like they had a bright future in 2024-25. However, an up-and-down start to the season for everyone — except the outstanding Quinn Hughes — gave way to a recent slump (losses in 12 of 16 games at one point) that has Vancouver clinging to the final wild-card spot in the conference and even reportedly listening to trade offers for two of its biggest names, J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. The good news is the Canucks are more likely to make the playoffs than not, and they’re a better team than their mediocre -0.14 GPG differential suggests … but they need to start showing it again.
Must improve: Goaltending. Vancouver has dropped from No. 6 in save percentage to No. 22, and while much of that is because 2023-24 Vezina Trophy candidate Thatcher Demko has missed large parts of this season, he hasn’t exactly been great (.883 save percentage) when he has been available.
Special panic factor: The prolonged tailspin. Whenever a team spends roughly a month straight in free fall, it can cloud judgment around the big picture.
Other teams that fall into this category:
Calgary Flames (21-15)
Playoff odds: 35%
Hanging on by a thread
This group has much lower playoff odds than the first. These teams might still be able to turn the season around, but none has made much of a serious charge up the standings yet.
Playoff odds: 9%
Despite not making the playoffs for two seasons with the veteran star power of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and (later) Erik Karlsson, the Pens went back in with their aging big names — they re-signed Crosby to a two-year extension in September — and hoped to rekindle the old magic one last time. The results have been disappointing, to say the least. While Pittsburgh’s power play is back on track (ranking fifth after dropping to 30th last season), the team is 16th in scoring overall and 29th in goal differential with an ailing Malkin on IR. Yes, the Penguins are only a few points out of the wild card, but they’ve shown few attributes of a playoff team thus far.
Must improve: Goal prevention. The first order of business for the Pens’ playoff push is to tighten up the defense and goaltending. Pittsburgh has allowed fewer than three goals in a game just once since Dec. 17. Between a porous defense that ranks fourth-to-last in shots allowed per game, and the shaky Alex Nedeljkovic–Tristan Jarry tandem in net, this team is not going to make the playoffs defending this way.
Special panic factor: End of an era. This is the oldest team in the league by average age, and Pittsburgh is going to have to close the book on the Crosby era eventually.
Playoff odds: 14%
Whether under former coach Lane Lambert or current boss Patrick Roy, New York has been a playoff fixture the past few seasons. But if the Islanders’ current odds are any indication, it’s going to be difficult to stretch that streak to three years.
They’re right next to the metro rival Rangers in the East standings, well below the cut line — and unlike the Blueshirts, the Isles don’t have as much talent, aside from goalie Ilya Sorokin (whose performance has ticked more and more toward average this season).
Must improve: Scoring. With Mathew Barzal missing much of the early season with an upper-body injury, the Isles find themselves ranked 26th in goals per game with the league’s absolute worst power play (10.6%). Anders Lee has had some moderate success putting the puck in the net, and Barzal has been back on the ice for about a month now, but the team’s GPG is barely up since then. The Isles of the late 2010s/early 2020s found success despite a weak offense, but this version isn’t nearly good enough on defense to sustain that formula.
Special panic factor: Running their course. The Islanders have the NHL’s fourth-oldest roster, with some familiar franchise names (such as Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri) due for free agency soon.
Playoff odds: 17%
After 2019, the Blues will forever be linked with wildly improbable second-half turnarounds — whether for themselves, or any other team (like the ones on our list here!) seeking to keep their Cup hopes alive in the face of insurmountable odds. And these Blues are not a bad team. They’ve been perfectly .500 (11 wins, 11 losses) since switching to Jim Montgomery at coach in late November. But merely treading water isn’t going to be enough to gain the ground required to chase down a wild-card spot in the West.
Must improve: Special teams. Along with the Wild, Islanders, Bruins and Ducks, St. Louis is one of five teams who rank 23rd or worse on both the power play and the penalty kill. For a team with some solid offensive options (Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, Pavel Buchnevich et al), it is surprising the Blues have only two players with more than two power-play goals; meanwhile, Jordan Binnington — a fine enough goalie overall — has the league’s seventh-worst SV% on the PK.
Special panic factor: Franchise expectations. Like their baseball counterparts, the Blues are a proud hockey club that seldom goes too long without making the playoffs. If they can’t turn around that 83% probability of being left out this season, it would mark just the second three-year playoff drought in team history.
Playoff odds: 21%
Where to begin with the Wings? This team once made the playoffs in 25 straight seasons but hasn’t made it back in eight (going on nine) years — repeatedly teasing its fans with a return in recent seasons. But unlike last season, when Detroit was looking solid for the postseason until the tail end of the schedule, these Red Wings have seen their odds slowly slide throughout the first half, only recently making a modest climb to their current level around 20%. It is mystifying how a team with Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Moritz Seider is fighting for its playoff life and trying to keep one of the NHL’s prestige franchises from reaching the doorstep of a decade-long playoff drought, but here we are.
Must improve: Depth. Detroit’s top players — all under age 30 — would be the envy of many NHL teams. But the Red Wings have gotten the 10th-fewest adjusted goals above replacement (GAR) from outside their top five of any roster in the league.
Special panic factor: Impatience! It spoke volumes when a testy Steve Yzerman snapped at a reporter a few weeks ago when asked about his team’s never-ending rebuild. The Red Wings have been at this for a long time, and it’s surprising they haven’t had their breakthrough under the “Yzerplan” yet.
Other teams that fall into this category:
Utah Hockey Club (18-18)
Playoff odds: 13%
Philadelphia Flyers (19-20)
Playoff odds: 6%
Resigned to their fate
These teams had a glimmer of hope before the season, panicked earlier on and now have all but accepted that a playoff trip isn’t in the cards.
Playoff odds: 1%
The Blackhawks started the season with low playoff odds according to the Elo ratings, which project largely based on a team’s final form in the previous season, but there seemed to be some reasons to think Connor Bedard & Co. could outperform those basic expectations after Chicago added the most value of any team in the offseason. Instead, coach Luke Richardson was fired in December, the newcomers have uniformly flopped, and Bedard has faced intense scrutiny (mostly undeserved) for Chicago falling flat.
Must improve: Driving play. The Hawks have a lot of problems, but one thing they have not done in the Bedard era is tilt the ice in their favor. Chicago has ranked dead last in the team’s share of total shot attempts at 5-on-5 in its games for two consecutive seasons.
Special panic factor: Bust worries. Much of the Bedard criticism comes from a place of impatience — and a deep-seated fear that the generational prospect won’t pan out. But Bedard is doing just fine. He’s on pace for the eighth-most adjusted points as a teenager in NHL history.
Playoff odds: 1%
Always in the shadow of their expansion older brothers, the Golden Knights, Seattle has struggled to follow the Vegas trajectory — a terribly unfair comparison, for the record. The Kraken appeared to be keeping up with a second-round playoff trip in Year 2, but they fell back in Year 3 and are going in the wrong direction again under new coach Dan Bylsma. A recent stretch of three wins in 13 games has all but sunk Seattle’s chances to return to the playoffs this time around.
Must improve: Talent development. This sounds like a big “duh.” But the Kraken took some early swings at prime-aged players in an attempt to compete right away, Vegas-style — their first team ranked 22nd youngest in average age — and it hasn’t paid dividends. (Meanwhile, young players such as 2023 Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers have stalled.) Seattle might need a different approach to building going forward.
Special panic factor: Return to expansion woes. Back in 2021, one of the big questions around Seattle’s new franchise was whether Vegas’ success was a one-off, or if the league was entering an era where expansion teams would be more immediately competitive. Right now, the worry for Seattle and any subsequent new clubs has to be that the Vegas plan cannot be replicated.
Playoff odds: 3%
Hopes were high in Nashville after the team went on an offseason talent binge, headlined by the pickup of future Hall of Famer Steven Stamkos. On paper, the Preds looked like a Cup contender — but it was always going to be a risky strategy to load up on veterans, forming the backbone of the league’s third-oldest roster. That downside has reared its ugly head, as Nashville’s new faces have struggled every bit as much as its mainstays have regressed. Aside from the solid (though not incredible) play of goalie Juuse Saros, this Nashville squad has never really lived up to its potential.
Must improve: Approach for 2025-26. Barring an all-time miracle turnaround, these Preds are done. But they are still locked in with much of the same core for years to come. So they’ll need some cap magic, or they’ll need a better plan to get more from the talent on hand in the future.
Special panic factor: Fear of the washed vet. Stamkos, 34, isn’t necessarily washed up quite yet — but this is tracking to be the worst season of his career. There’s a special panic reserved for the feeling of giving a four-year, $32 million deal to a veteran whose production promptly falls off a cliff.
Playoff odds: 3%
Much like the Red Wings and Senators, the Sabres are mired in a lengthy playoff drought. But Buffalo’s absence from the postseason, which now looks likely to extend to 14 seasons, is on another level. (The difference between the Sabres’ drought and Detroit’s would itself be one of the longest droughts in history.) Buffalo was in decent shape — nearly 50-50 — to end the streak as recently as a few days before American Thanksgiving, but a shocking 13-game losing skid unraveled just about any hope of getting back to the playoffs.
Must improve: Defense and goaltending. On offense, the Sabres have some talented scorers, led by Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker and Alex Tuch, all of whom are on track for at least 27 adjusted goals. Their defensive corps boasts some highly skilled young players as well, between Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram and Owen Power. But Buffalo needs to apply a lot more focus on the defensive end, where it ranks 27th in GPG allowed, 26th in scoring chances allowed per minute and 28th in save percentage. It is not a coincidence this team has allowed fewer GPG than average just once since 2008-09, a span that almost completely overlaps the Sabres’ postseason drought.
Special panic factor: Will it ever end?? Whenever a streak like this builds and builds, it takes on a life of its own. The panic to end it can inspire rash decisions, and it can cast a pall over the franchise. That’s the concern for Buffalo at this point — and it might take a special group of personalities like what the 2004 Boston Red Sox or 2016 Chicago Cubs had in order to overcome the weight of history.
Other teams that fall into this category:
Anaheim Ducks (18-21)
Playoff odds: 1%
San Jose Sharks (14-26)
Playoff odds: 1%