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Greg Wyshynski
NHL teams don’t necessarily need a goaltender that can drag them to the Stanley Cup, mostly because those types of netminders are unicorns. What they need is a goalie that can make a save at a critical time; and, perhaps most of all, not lose a game for the team in front of them.
As the NHL playoff picture comes into focus, so does the quality of every team’s most important position. Will their goaltending be the foundation for a playoff berth and postseason run? Or is it the fatal flaw in their designs on the Stanley Cup?
The NHL Bubble Watch is our monthly check-in on the Stanley Cup playoff races using playoff probabilities and points projections from Stathletes for all 32 teams. This month, we’re also giving each contending team a playoff quality goaltending rating based on the classic Consumer Reports review standards: Excellent, Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor.
We also reveal which teams shouldn’t worry about any of this because they’re lottery-bound already.
But first, a look at the projected playoff bracket:
Projected playoff bracket
Note: Projected point totals via Stathletes.
Eastern Conference
M1 Washington Capitals (111.4) vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens (90.2)
M2 Carolina Hurricanes (105.0) vs. M3 New Jersey Devils (97.0)
A1 Florida Panthers (104.7) vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators (90.8)
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs (102.4) vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning (101.3)
Western Conference
P1 Edmonton Oilers (108.5) vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks (90.1)
P2 Vegas Golden Knights (108.2) vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings (93.6)
C1 Winnipeg Jets (107.1) vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild (95.9)
C2 Colorado Avalanche (99.8) vs. C3 Dallas Stars (97.7)
ATLANTIC DIVISION
The locks
Record: 28-18-3, 59 points
Playoff chances: 99.3%
The Panthers have the best chance of winning the Atlantic Division (42.5%) according to Stathletes, something that would potentially ease their path to a third straight Stanley Cup Final but deprive NHL fans of another all-Florida lovefest against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Panthers’ offense continues to carry them, thanks to another incredible goal-scoring season from Sam Reinhart (27 goals in 47 games) and some unexpected contributions from players such as Jesper Boqvist, whose recent scoring burst gave him a new career high (11) in goals.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. Sergei Bobrovsky being below average in save percentage (.896) and below expected analytically is neither a surprise nor a harbinger of doom for Florida. When the puck drops for the postseason, he becomes Playoff Bob — .906 save percentage, 2.32 goals-against average in winning the Stanley Cup last season — and all is forgiven. Meanwhile, Spencer Knight has been one of the league’s best under-the-radar stories as Bob’s backup, with a .905 save percentage in 18 games.
Record: 30-17-2, 62 points
Playoff chances: 98.6%
The Leafs just keep cruising along in the Atlantic Division, being pretty good in all facets of the game — and by “pretty good,” we mean lingering just outside the top 10 in scoring, defense, power play and the penalty kill. They’ve overcome having Auston Matthews and John Tavares miss time to injuries by getting all-world seasons from stars Mitch Marner and William Nylander.
Marner is playing like it’s a contract year — and it’s not exactly subtle. The Leafs winger had 67 points in his first 48 games this season, and that 1.40 points per game average would be his career best. Nylander, meanwhile, filled in the goal-scoring blank left by Matthews with 28 goals in 48 games, which is currently his career high for goals per 60 minutes (1.33). Nylander leads the Leafs with 12.4 goals scored above replacement as well.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. Joseph Woll‘s numbers might not knock you over (.907 save percentage), but he has done everything they’ve needed him to do in winning 17 games in 25 appearances. Anthony Stolarz has been even better when he has played, with a .927 save percentage in 17 games and better underlying metrics than Woll. But the operative phrase for both Leafs goalies remains “when he has played,” as the fragility of Woll and Stolarz in their careers is well documented. Woll at least has playoff experience, albeit seven games. Stolarz has played roughly 35 minutes in the postseason.
Record: 25-18-3, 53 points
Playoff chances: 98.5%
Even though they have a high percentage chance of making the playoffs and finishing either second or third in the Atlantic, coach Jon Cooper’s team would probably like a little more breathing room between themselves and the four division rivals (sorry Buffalo) that are within a half dozen points of them in the standings. But with Nikita Kucherov doing his MVP thing again — his 1.59 points per game rate through 44 games leads the NHL — the Bolts should stay above the fray.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. Andrei Vasilevskiy is Andrei Vasilevskiy again after a down year statistically, with a .915 save percentage after 36 games. But he still has something to prove in the playoffs, as one of the best postseason goalies in NHL history has been eliminated in the first round in two straight trips, with a save percentage under .900. Jonas Johansson has been OK in his rare starts.
Work to do
Record: 24-19-4, 52 points
Playoff chances: 68.5%
The Senators are tied for the eighth-best points percentage over their past 25 games but are a team that basically scores as much as it surrenders. They’ve played through a collection of injuries — most significantly star goalie Linus Ullmark, who hasn’t played since Dec. 22 — but have surged to the wild-card bubble anyway.
“We’ve found a way to win in different manners, I guess different fashion from game to game,” coach Travis Green said recently. “And that’s important during the season because every game isn’t going to be scripted the same.”
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. Ullmark was as advertised for Ottawa after being acquired from Boston, with 9.71 goals saved above expected before his injury. But Ullmark’s regular-season dominance, which included a Vezina Trophy win in 2022-23, hasn’t been matched in the postseason, where he had a 3.59 goals-against average and an .887 save percentage in Boston. One bit of crease intrigue for Ottawa: Has rookie Leevi Meriläinen market-corrected Anton Forsberg in the tandem, or will NHL opponents start figuring him out?
Record: 24-19-4, 52 points
Playoff chances: 37.0%
Just to illustrate how quickly the dynamics can change in the Bubble Watch: The Canadiens were “lottery-bound” last month, and now have a significant chance of making the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. That’ll happen when a team posts a .660 points percentage over 25 games, third best in the NHL in that span.
Montreal’s 5-on-5 offense ignited during that span: 2.74 goals per 60 minutes, second in the league behind Connor McDavid and Edmonton. Both Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki were in the top 25 in even-strength points, while rookie sensation Lane Hutson was second among all freshmen in EV points.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Fair. Sam Montembeault was named to Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off and has turned his season around for the Habs, with a .904 save percentage in his past 19 starts. After backup Cayden Primeau proved to be one of the NHL’s worst goalies this season, rookie Jakub Dobes started his NHL career with five wins in five games. By our calculations this means he’ll need 687 more starts to break Martin Brodeur‘s all-time wins record, should he remain on his current pace.
Record: 21-21-5, 47 points
Playoff chances: 12.9%
GM Steve Yzerman fired head coach Derek Lalonde after three seasons and a 13-17-4 record. Enter Todd McLellan, trying to end an eight-season playoff drought in the Motor City. While nothing has shifted dramatically in their underlying numbers, the Wings went 6-3-1 in a 10-game stretch under McLellan to keep pace in the East.
To his credit, the veteran coach is doing what he can to get their attention, with postgame comments such as: “Say you’re at your desk but you’re not working, then you’re useless. It’s one thing being there, it’s the other thing getting the job done.”
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Fair. The Red Wings’ goaltending depth chart looked like an “American Idol” audition earlier this season, but Detroit has settled on Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon as their tandem. Stathletes has both netminders under water in goals saved above expected; Money Puck’s numbers indicate they’re both better than expected. One thing is clear: McLellan is very familiar with Talbot, having coached him in Edmonton and Los Angeles previously.
Record: 23-20-6, 52 points
Playoff chances: 11.6%
Boston’s eight-season playoff streak is in serious jeopardy. The Bruins’ offense has dried up outside of David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. Their defense is an uncharacteristic 23rd in the NHL, despite goalie Jeremy Swayman finally finding his form after a very shaky start.
Team president Cam Neely recently said that he believes these Bruins are a playoff team, but that there are “two paths” in front of the franchise right now: making deals at the trade deadline or “retooling a little bit.” Even the consideration of the latter isn’t a good sign for Boston.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. There’s no question that missing training camp during a contract impasse with the Bruins did not do Swayman nor the team any favors. But the Boston goalie has been getting better as the season has gone on, with a .932 save percentage at 5-on-5 over an 11-game span. In 20 postseason games, Swayman has a .922 save percentage and a 2.38 goals-against average. The issue for him and the Bruins: actually making the cut this season. Backup Joonas Korpisalo has been a demonstrable step down from Linus Ullmark in the tandem.
Lottery-bound
Record: 18-24-5, 41 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Maybe 14 straight seasons without a playoff appearance is how the word balances itself for owner Terry Pegula, whose Buffalo Bills have made the AFC playoffs in seven of eight seasons, and the AFC Championship Game twice. As for his hockey team, the only one in the Atlantic not directly in the playoff mix: As always, it’s wait ’till next year and good luck in the draft lottery.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
The locks
Record: 32-10-5, 69 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Capitals took a surprise playoff team from last season, smashed the upgrade button in the offseason and ended up with a roster that has risen to the top of the NHL standings. New additions such as Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy and especially Logan Thompson joined an age-defying Alex Ovechkin to fuel a team that’s in the top two offensively and defensively in the NHL — and is a serious threat to win the Stanley Cup.
“There has to be an expectation that we’re going to win,” forward Tom Wilson said. “That’s a culture that’s been built. The new guys came in this year and complemented that.”
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Excellent. If it weren’t for a certain goalie in Winnipeg, Logan Thompson would be the odds-on favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. He’s 22-2-3 with a .925 save percentage and a goals-against average that’s flirting with being under 2.00. “He delivers when we need a big save. When we need to preserve the win, he delivers,” coach Spencer Carbery said. Thompson’s postseason numbers in Vegas were stellar in four appearances. If Charlie Lindgren gets back to last season’s form, the Capitals could perhaps have the East’s best tandem.
Record: 29-16-3, 61 points
Playoff chances: 99.5%
Analytically, the Hurricanes are their typical elite selves, leading the NHL in percentage of shot attempts and expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. But their actual numbers are off from the expected ones, as they score less and give up more than they should. That said, a .635 points percentage after 48 games is stellar.
They’re very good, but one wonders what GM Eric Tulsky and his crew have in mind to make them elite as the March 7 trade deadline nears.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. Pyotr Kochetkov has gotten the majority of the action and has delivered both in traditional stats (.904 save percentage) and in underlying numbers (6.0 goals saved above expected). He has a lot to prove in the playoffs, however: In six games, Kochetkov has an .863 save percentage and a 4.01 goals-against average. Keep in mind only two of those games were starts. Frederik Andersen, 35, just recently returned to action for the Canes. He’s the superior postseason goalie, but as always, his availability remains the biggest concern.
Record: 27-17-6, 60 points
Playoff chances: 88.9%
The Devils have had a struggle of it lately during a 2-6-3 run that saw their potent offense score two or fewer goals in eight games. In particular, their supporting cast’s scoring has dried up. Another issue that has lingered for this group over multiple seasons and multiple coaches: getting a lead. The Devils have trailed first in 27 of 49 games this season. They’re a respectable 12-12-3 in those games, but that’s a lot of playing from behind.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Excellent. Jacob Markstrom was acquired to solve the Devils’ goaltending issues, and he has delivered: 11.8 goals saved above expected per Money Puck and a .912 save percentage. While he will occasionally let in a questionable goal, he more than makes up for it with highlight-reel saves in almost every game. He exited Wednesday’s game and will “miss some time” according to Devils coach Sheldon Keefe. Backup Jake Allen has been dependable. Both goalies have considerable playoff experience and very solid numbers.
Work to do
Record: 22-20-6, 50 points
Playoff chances: 41.9%
The Flyers have gone full John Tortorella mode over the past few weeks, playing the kind of lane-clogging, shot-blocking defensive style that has become synonymous with the veteran coach. Philadelphia gave up two or fewer goals in nine of 11 games — and it’s not its substandard goaltending that’s putting up that wall. The question is whether that approach is either sustainable or effective enough to snag a wild-card spot in the East. But Torts has grinded his teams into postseason berths before.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Poor. The Flyers have by far the worst team save percentage in the NHL after 47 games. Samuel Ersson has had the run of play lately, as the best of three less-than-ideal options. Highly touted Ivan Fedotov played below replacement level; rookie Aleksei Kolosov was even worse with minus-5 goals save above expected. Kolosov at least has youth and NHL inexperience as an excuse.
Record: 23-20-4, 50 points
Playoff chances: 25.8%
Rumors of the Rangers’ demise were greatly exaggerated. OK, that’s not entirely true, as the Blueshirts still have an aging core that struggles at even strength. But a 6-1-3 run in the past 10 games has given New York new life and a lot of its success can be attributed to being better than its analytics at 5-on-5: The Rangers are second in scoring during that 10-game span despite being 14th in expected goals. The team deserves some puck luck after a rough first half.
Now, does GM Chris Drury continue with his retooling or augment the roster with immediate help? And would a trade for Vancouver’s J.T. Miller satisfy both desires?
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Excellent. Igor Shesterkin hasn’t had the most consistent season, but his recent play is a reminder that the Rangers are quite difficult to beat when he’s hard to beat — including back-to-back shutouts over Columbus and Ottawa, two Eastern Conference playoff rivals. Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick — solid, but not as spectacular as last season — give the Rangers a huge advantage over other teams in the muddled Eastern wild-card race. If they make the cut, Shesterkin’s playoff numbers (.928 career postseason season save percentage) are outstanding.
Record: 19-20-7, 45 points
Playoff chances: 19.9%
Coach Patrick Roy has remained positive through a frustrating season for the Islanders, even if that has meant conjuring platitudes such as, “I have nothing to support what I’m going to say, but we’re playing good hockey” during dire times. With a combination of improved health, the Mathew Barzal–Bo Horvat duo clicking and better defense, the Islanders have inched up the standings in the Eastern Conference lately, and Stathletes projects them to finish with 86.5 points.
But to what end? It still might be time to move veterans such as Brock Nelson at the trade deadline in an effort to retool.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. With Semyon Varlamov injured, Ilya Sorokin has carried the load to a .902 save percentage in 32 games, playing just a shade better than league average analytically. But his team is playing better in front of him and backup Marcus Högberg, who has put up strong numbers in limited action.
Long shots, at best
Record: 20-21-8, 48 points
Playoff chances: 10.1%
The Penguins continue to shamble along like a Robert Kirkman zombie toward another playoff miss and a trade deadline that will certainly see a number of players skate to another market. Would that include players such as Kris Letang or Erik Karlsson (and his contract)? That’s unlikely, but outside of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it’s hard to imagine anyone is safe. After 49 games, the Penguins were the worst defensive team in the NHL — a combination of lax 5-on-5 defense and atrocious goaltending.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Poor. Tristan Jarry was finally banished to the AHL after blowing a lead in about one minute of the third period against Seattle recently. Alex Nedeljkovic, while an accomplished goal scorer, hasn’t been the solution either, playing below expected. There’s an argument to be made that rookie Joel Blomqvist has been the team’s best goaltending option this season. With Jarry in the minors, we’re going to see a lot more of Blomqvist.
Record: 23-18-7, 53 points
Playoff chances: 1.7%
The Blue Jackets are only a couple of points out of a playoff spot, but neither Stathletes nor Money Puck (16.2%) really like their chances to make the cut. In fact, Stathletes has the Jackets projected for 79.4 points, putting them last (again) in the Metropolitan Division.
If Columbus did earn a postseason berth, it would obviously be one of the most heartfelt sports stories in recent memory, as a franchise still processing the grief from Johnny Gaudreau’s tragic death on the eve of the season advances to the playoffs in a season dedicated to his memory. With the way a forward such as Kirill Marchenko and especially defenseman Zach Werenski are playing, we’re not counting them out.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Poor. The Jackets are eighth offensively and 28th defensively this season, which tells you all you need to know about the state of their goaltending this season. Elvis Merzlikins is 16-11-3 despite an .890 save percentage and playing well below replacement levels. Money Puck has Daniil Tarasov as nearly a minus-8 goals saved above expected. But their goaltending has seen an uptick recently, including Jet Greaves being thrown into the mix on occasion. Tarasov recently played Shesterkin to a 0-0 regulation stalemate, for example.
CENTRAL DIVISION
The locks
Record: 32-14-3, 67 points
Playoff chances: 99.7%
For Jets coach Scott Arniel, Winnipeg’s 15 wins in its first 16 games was less about setting an NHL record (which it did) but banking a considerable amount of points ahead of inevitable wobbles during the season.
The Jets have had losing streaks of three and four games, and relinquished the NHL standings lead to Washington, but they remain cushioned ahead of the field in the Central Division with a team that’s top three in team defense and offense, the latter thanks to a torrid power play led by winger Kyle Connor (21 power-play points).
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Excellent. There’s an argument to be made that Connor Hellebuyck shouldn’t just win the Vezina Trophy for a second straight season, with a .927 save percentage and 11.6 goals saved above expected, but that he should get serious consideration for the Hart Trophy as league MVP. But he does have something to prove in the playoffs, with a sub-.900 save percentage in back-to-back trips. Eric Comrie has been slightly above average as his backup, but given his recent NHL history he’ll no doubt take that.
Record: 28-19-2, 58 points
Playoff chances: 94.4%
At the risk of spoiling the next section: Mackenzie Blackwood has been the story of the season for the Colorado Avalanche. Not only because the team nuking its goaltending depth defines its season, but because Blackwood arrived from the San Jose Sharks and went 9-4-1 in 13 games with a .928 save percentage, a 1.97 goals-against average and 12.1 goals saved above expected.
There are other reasons the Avalanche have become a playoff lock, from the MVP performance of Nathan MacKinnon to 25 goals in 48 games from Mikko Rantanen in a contract year. But Blackwood has been a revelation so far, to the point of already earning a multiyear extension from the Avs.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. Have we mentioned Mackenzie Blackwood? The other in-season goalie acquisition for Colorado, Scott Wedgewood, has posted decent stats and decidedly average metrics as Blackwood’s backup.
Record: 29-17-1, 59 points
Playoff chances: 89.1%
After a middling start, the Stars rolled to 11 wins in 13 games to reestablish themselves in the Central Division race. They’re just outside the top 10 offensively, but solidly top five in team defense, underscored by strong 5-on-5 analytics. They lost Tyler Seguin for the regular season to hip surgery, and have missed Mason Marchment since late December because of an injury, but the Stars keep chugging along with balanced scoring.
They’re a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, and one that’s going to have some long-term injury cap flexibility for GM Jim Nill to use at the trade deadline.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Excellent. He hasn’t received the fanfare of Hellebuyck or buzz that goalies such Logan Thompson and Jakob Markstrom have in the East, but Jake Oettinger has quietly put together a terrific bounce-back season after a “good, not great” 2023-24. He has a .914 save percentage in 35 games, with 8.74 goals saved above expected. In the playoffs, he’s the type of netminder who can win games on his own. New backup Casey DeSmith has been fine for the occasional spot start.
Record: 28-15-4, 60 points
Playoff chances: 80.7%
Perhaps the most impressive thing about the Wild this season is they didn’t collectively collapse into the fetal position when Kirill Kaprizov was lost to a lower-body injury on Dec. 23. He remains their leading scorer with 50 points in 34 games, including 23 goals. He’s progressing toward a return soon, which could mean Minnesota goes from maintaining its spot in the Central, going 7-5-0 without him in the lineup, to rocketing back up the Western Conference standings.
The Wild are 19th in the NHL in goals per game with the 23rd-ranked power play. Kaprizov is one of a parade of injuries recently that has also included defensemen Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Kaprizov and Spurgeon are due back on Thursday night against Utah.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. The Wild are around the top three in team save percentage (.906) this season thanks to Filip Gustavsson (.914 save percentage, three shutouts) who has seven goals saved above expected. There is some concern about his work rate: Last season’s 45 appearances were a career high, and this is right around where his stats took a dip a year ago. Marc-Andre Fleury has solid traditional stats (.906) and less than average analytics in his swan-song season. Fleury has over 15 years of playoff experience. Gustavsson was great in his five playoff games back in 2022-23.
Work to do
Record: 23-21-4, 50 points
Playoff chances: 26.2%
While they keep taking one step back for every step forward in the standings, there are a lot of positive signs for St. Louis under new coach Jim Montgomery. Jake Neighbours, 22, continues to trend in the right direction. Star winger Jordan Kyrou, 26, leads the team in goals. Then there’s Dylan Holloway, 23, whom the Blues acquired via restricted free agent offer sheet from Edmonton. He has a career high in goals (15), assists (21) and points (36) in 48 games thanks to increased ice time (16:19).
Now if they could only string together a few winning streaks.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. After both goalies were analytics darlings last season, Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer regressed to the mean this season. Hofer has better traditional stats (.906 save percentage) than analytics compared to Binnington. But Binnington remains one of the NHL’s greatest feast-or-famine netminders in the league. Some nights he looks like a goalie whose metrics point to him being a replacement-level performer this season. On other nights, Binnington looks as if he could carry the Blues to the postseason — or, perhaps, win the 4 Nations Face-Off for Canada.
Record: 20-19-7, 47 points
Playoff chances: 26.0%
Utah did itself no favors with losing 10 of 12 games, many of them against teams the team is chasing in the Western Conference standings. Utah is still in the race for the final wild-card spot — anything above that is probably out of reach — but it needs to find more offensive pop to mount a serious run. That means getting more scoring outside of Clayton Keller (50 points), Logan Cooley (42), Nick Schmaltz (37) and Dylan Guenther (0.85 points per game) when he’s back from injury.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. Karel Vejmelka had arguably been the team’s MVP with a .910 save percentage in 28 games, including 7.5 goals saved above expected. He might finally get some help from Connor Ingram, who has looked good after being away from the team for both an upper-body injury and to be with his mother, who died in December.
Long shots, at best
Record: 17-22-7, 41 points
Playoff chances: 38.0%
One look at the standings tells you that the Nashville Predators don’t have much of playoff chance this season, lingering in the neighborhood of also-rans such as Anaheim and Seattle. And yet, Stathletes continues to give the Preds a significant percentage chance of making the playoffs, although Money Puck (5.3%) is more bearish.
As the past eight games have shown, there’s still time for Nashville to get rolling — they have the time and the talent to still make this interesting in the West. The question is whether GM Barry Trotz will use the trade deadline to fuel a flicker of playoff hope or get his Preds in a row for next season. Stathletes still projects Nashville to be a 90-point team, for what it’s worth.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. The dichotomy of Juuse Saros: He has been well below his standards this season but also remains one of the primary sources of hope for a Nashville turnaround. His .901 save percentage would be the worst mark of his career, and he has played below expected analytically. But Saros is a high-work rate goalie who could carry this team for a bit if he gets rolling. That’s a big “if” this season, as Justus Annunen has better numbers than Saros at 5-on-5 lately.
Lottery-bound
Record: 15-28-4, 34 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
Connor Bedard is trying to give fans a reason to watch the Blackhawks before their next draft lottery drawing, finally coming alive with nine points in his past 10 games. That extends a scoring tear under interim head coach Anders Sorensen, in which last season’s rookie of the year has 22 points in 21 games.
PACIFIC DIVISION
The locks
Record: 29-15-3, 61 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Oilers know they can count on Leon Draisaitl (an NHL-best 34 goals in 47 games) and Connor McDavid (65 points), when the latter isn’t engaging in vigilante justice. But Edmonton really leveled up in the standings when the supporting cast picked up its play, such as Zach Hyman going from eight points in his first 20 games to 18 points in his next 22 games and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finding his stride as well.
The Stathletes model has them projected just ahead of the Golden Knights for the Pacific Division title.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. The Oilers are middle of the pack in team save percentage (.895) but both Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are both under league average in save percentage and have played below expected levels based on the analytics. What keeps this rating from being in the “fair” category is the proof of concept Skinner showed in the Oilers’ Stanley Cup Final run last season. It’s not always pretty or consistent, but he’s a gamer.
Record: 29-14-4, 62 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Despite a recent stumble, the Golden Knights are one of the NHL’s most complete teams, with an offense that ranks in the top five and a defense that ranks in the top 10. The scoring balance of the Knights has been impressive this season.
While it’s true Jack Eichel has a comfortable lead as the team’s top scorer (58 points in 46 games), 15 points over defenseman Shea Theodore, eight different players have at least 10 goals, led by winger Pavel Dorofeyev‘s 20 goals in an impressive breakout season.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. The Knights have goaltending right around the top 10 in team save percentage. Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov have similar numbers right around the league average, and better than expected analytically. They’re a solid foundation for what the Knights do, and Hill obviously has some postseason success on his résumé.
Work to do
Record: 26-14-5, 57 points
Playoff chances: 72.2%
The Kings have an underappreciated dynamic duo in Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. They’ve been primary linemates since the 2021-22 season, skating with a variety of wingers.
This season, the Kings outscore opponents by 18 goals when Kopitar and Kempe are on the ice together at 5-on-5. Their line with Alex Turcotte averages nearly four goals every 60 minutes, and gives up only 1.6 goals against per 60 minutes. Kempe leads the Kings with 23 goals in 44 games, trying to top his career high of 41 tallies set in 2022-23.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Good. For all the hype about Pierre-Luc Dubois‘ career renaissance with the first-place Capitals, Darcy Kuemper has been pretty fantastic for the Kings after their “the trade was one-for-one” summer swap. Kuemper was 13-4-5 in 23 games with a .922 save percentage and a 2.10 goals-against average. Lest anyone think he’s just a product of a solid Los Angeles defensive team, he has 9.23 goals saved above expected. David Rittich, who got a long run of games when Kuemper was injured, hasn’t really held up his end of the bargain in traditional stats (.886) and fancy stats (minus-8.7 goals saved above expected per Stathletes).
Record: 20-16-10, 50 points
Playoff chances: 42.9%
There was no better encapsulation of the Canucks’ season than their heart-stopping, one-goal win over the Oilers followed by their heart-wrenching one-goal loss to the Sabres at home this week. It’s as if they’re tied to a giant rubber band, where every leap forward is met with an emphatic tug backward.
As the on-ice product struggles, the drama off the ice continues with speculation about the relationship between star forwards Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller — and which one could be traded sooner than later.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Fair. Thatcher Demko put it bluntly this week: “I don’t think I’ve been good enough this year so far.” The numbers bear that out, as Demko has a minus-6.2 goals saved above expected and a .873 save percentage in a truncated 11-game season because of injury. Where would the Canucks be without Kevin Lankinen, whose .903 save percentage and four shutouts have kept them in the playoff hunt?
Record: 22-16-7, 51 points
Playoff chances: 30.3%
Stathletes projects the Flames will finish with 88.5 points, which would be 10th most in the Western Conference, which is not good news for them. But Calgary has been all about defying expectations this season. They don’t score all that much (2.60 goals per game, 29th overall) and their goaltending is better than the defense played in front of it, but the Flames find ways to win. Since Dec. 3, they haven’t lost more than two games in a row.
Playoff quality goaltending rating: Very good. Dustin Wolf is making a serious push for NHL rookie of the year, and in the process he’s pushing the Flames to the playoff bubble. Wolf has a .917 save percentage through 25 games, wining 16 of them. Money Puck had him at 11.7 goals saved above expected this season. His backup Dan Vladar has had better seasons (.889 save percentage), but at least 50% of his appearances are “quality starts” per Hockey Reference.
Lottery-bound
Record: 21-24-3
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Money Puck is a bit kinder to the Kraken, projecting a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs, but they’re in the bottom half of the league in offense and defense. It might be time for the four-year-old franchise to go back to the drawing board, starting with this summer’s draft.
Record: 18-23-6, 42 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%
The Ducks are the worst offensive team in the NHL, absolutely wasting fantastic goaltending seasons from Lukas Dostal (.907 save percentage) and John Gibson (.911), both of whom have played well above expected and deserve better than a .447 points percentage.
Record: 14-30-6
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The NHL’s most “fun bad” team this season, thanks to rookie sensation Macklin Celebrini (34 points in 38 games), the ever-improving William Eklund and a team that gives up 3.56 goals per game.