NHL playoff watch: How the Canucks make the playoffs

On Dec. 5, the Vancouver Canucks fired coach Travis Green and GM Jim Benning. The club was in last place in the Pacific Division, and second-to-last in the Western Conference, with a record of 8-15-2.

That day, they hired Bruce Boudreau, and how their fortunes have changed. In the 39 games since, they’ve gone 22-11-6, good for a .641 points percentage in that span; to put that in perspective, a .641 points percentage for the entire season thus far would rank 10th in the NHL.

But can this resilient bunch make the playoffs, after GM Patrik Allvin trimmed from the edges at the trade deadline, but avoided dealing away players like J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser?

FiveThirtyEight projections give them a 9% chance of making the playoffs heading into Wednesday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. That will be a tough one, as the Avs continue to overpower most opponents. Thereafter is a critical stretch: at the Minnesota Wild, at the Dallas Stars, a home-and-home against the St. Louis Blues and a home-and-home against the spiraling Vegas Golden Knights. We’ll have a much greater understanding of those playoff chances — in a positive or negative direction — following this gauntlet of matchups against playoff (or playoff-adjacent) clubs.

As we enter the post-deadline stretch of the 2021-22 regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2022 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight. Tragic numbers are courtesy of Damian Echevarrieta of the NHL.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Washington Capitals
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Dallas Stars
C2 St. Louis Blues vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Calgary Flames vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Today’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All out-of-market non-TNT games available on ESPN+

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, 7:30 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 20
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 20
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. NJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 17

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. PIT (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 9

Points: 44
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 2

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 18
Next game: @ BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 18
Next game: vs. PIT (Friday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Next game: @ BUF (Friday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Next game: @ WPG (Friday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 21
Next game: vs. DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 9

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 9

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Central Division

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 21
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 18
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 20
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 78%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 16%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 44
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 9

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Pacific Division

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. ARI (Friday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 17
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 89%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 18
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 80%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 37%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Next game: @ COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 9%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Next game: vs. CHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 46
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 9

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order at the top of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team may move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here.

Points: 44
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 44
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 46
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 28