Fury-Whyte: Breakdown and betting analysis

Boxing

Tyson Fury defends the WBC and lineal heavyweight championship against mandatory challenger Dillian Whyte on Saturday at Wembley Stadium in London (ESPN+ PPV, 2 p.m. ET) in front of an expected 94,000 fans.

Fury (31-0-1, 22 KOs), 33, of Manchester, England, is coming off two impressive stoppages of Deontay Wilder. Under the tutelage of trainer SugarHill Steward, he has found a steady and effective offense that goes perfectly with his defensive skills.

“Tyson Fury is like a chameleon. He can adapt to just about anything inside his environment,” two-division champion and current ESPN boxing analyst Timothy Bradley Jr. said. “He is intelligent, intuitive and self-sufficient, maintaining control in all aspects of boxing.”

Whyte (28-2, 19 KOs), 34, of Jamaica, but fighting out of London, became the WBC mandatory challenger in 2017. He lost that position after a KO loss to Alexander Povetkin in 2020, but regained it in the rematch eight months later.

“For Whyte to win, he needs to make it a street fight, just straight up street fight,” Bradley said. “He has to attack Fury any chance he gets, get him on the ropes, work him, find a way to hit him and make the fight grueling for Fury.”

Can Fury control the distance and land his combinations effectively? Will Whyte be in the best shape of his life and be able to decipher Fury’s defense to hurt him with his powerful uppercut and right hand? Timothy Bradley Jr. breaks down the heavyweight matchup.

Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Fury should press forward, but beware of Whyte’s right hand

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Joe Tessitore interviews Tyson Fury prior to his bout with Dillian Whyte on Saturday.

I view fights as a way to look at fighters’ strengths and weaknesses. And I’ve noticed that Fury approaches his fights the same way now that he has had more time with his trainer Steward. Fury can do whatever he wants in the ring. He has a full arsenal of punches and can fight off his back foot, meaning he can box. He’s now also confident enough and has been groomed to fight off his front foot, as we saw in the past two fights against Wilder.

When I look at Whyte, I see weakness when he fights off his back foot — he doesn’t have good footwork. He’s a fighter that likes to fight when he wants to fight, meaning he will dictate the attack but with just one or two shots at a time, never in a combination sequence, unless he has his opponent hurt or he’s digging down to the body. Two quick punches — boom boom. He likes to fight at a comfortable pace, and I think that’s going to be his downfall in this fight.

Another thing I’ve noticed is Whyte loses punching power when having to punch up. He has only been able to produce knockouts over the 6-foot-5 Lucas Browne in 2018 and 6-foot-6 Malcolm Tann in 2017, but Tann was coming off two knockout losses that same year. Anyone else 6-5 and up, he goes the distance. In other words, he is used to being the bigger man punching down on his opponents instead of up.

I think Fury should press forward. People will say, “Well, if he presses forward, he will get into Whyte’s game.” But there are different ways to pressure guys without putting yourself in harm’s way. Fury has an 85-inch reach! He can maintain his distance and still press forward, use his jab, control range and dominate coming forward. He doesn’t necessarily have to stay close to be able to hit Whyte. He can maintain a certain distance, come forward, stalk him and put him on the back foot, where Whyte is weak. And when you attack Whyte, he goes into this high guard shield and just looks to counter in between punches or when the opponent is done punching.

I see Fury pressing forward, being aggressive, dictating the pace, using his jab, using his length and pressing Whyte, putting him on his back foot and eventually hurting him with a big shot. I don’t see too much danger for Fury in this fight, especially if Fury can control the distance. But he needs to be wary of Whyte’s power if he can’t find the proper distance.

If Fury gets too close, that’s a different story, because Whyte, aside from his right hand, brings a full set of tools — he has developed every punch in the book. He’s not the same Whyte that Anthony Joshua beat. He’s grown in this profession and he has developed various punches, like the uppercut with both hands. He’s also a good body puncher and has an excellent jab to go with that sneaky right hand that he can loop or throw down the middle.

Fury doesn’t just have to worry about one punch but every punch, and that’s where things can get very interesting for Fury if he’s not careful. Everybody knows he has that left hook, but Whyte also has a big right hand.

Fury has the option of pressing forward, maintaining the distance or fighting off the back foot and allowing Whyte to come forward, forcing him to make mistakes and making him pay. We have seen Fury fight off his back foot against Wladimir Klitschko and in other fights, when he dances around and makes the fight boring but easy.

The worst thing Fury does is that he sometimes backs down in a straight line. When you attack him, he extends his hands almost like he’s trying to control traffic. He will post with that right hand and deflect shots, pulling his chin back. Taller fighters typically do that because they fight shorter fighters most of the time. So, Fury will go back in a straight line and it’s easier for an opponent to walk him down to the ropes, close the gap and work him.


Whyte can take a page from Deontay Wilder’s book

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Tyson Fury and Dillian Whyte face off ahead of their fight for the WBC heavyweight championship.

What Whyte really needs to do is what Wilder did successfully early on in the third fight with Fury, when he won the first couple of rounds on my scorecard. Whyte has to attack the body. Being the shorter guy and having a quick first step, which Whyte has when he attacks quickly, he can use the jab to the chest area or the body, or he can throw the right hand to the body, because Fury has trouble when guys get underneath him and start punching his body early on. But Whyte needs to do it consistently.

While Wilder had success doing that early, Fury made quick adjustments and put Wilder on his back foot, where he was weak. That’s how smart he is. I can somewhat see the same type of fight. Fury has just fought one of the hardest punchers in the game, so I don’t see why he’d be timid to back up from Whyte when he knows Whyte is weak fighting backwards.


All about conditioning

Whyte needs to make it a street fight. But to do so, Whyte needs to be in the best shape of his life because Fury can rejuvenate himself quickly. We saw it in the first Wilder fight. Fury got knocked down in Round 9 and got up and went at Wilder. Then he got knocked down again in the 12th and got up again and went after Wilder. What is this guy made of?

Fury has that power within, and I think stamina will be a factor, because once Whyte starts getting tired, you will see Fury begin to turn it up on him. Whyte had better be in tip-top shape and try to make it an ugly fight, an inside fight. Fury is good at fighting inside, but Whyte has quick hands, he fights well to the body, he has every punch in the tool box to be able to land something significant on Fury. And if he can hurt Fury, he’s going to need enough juice left to be able to take him out.


Whyte can punch, beware of his uppercut

Whyte is dangerous because he can punch with both hands. There’ll never be a moment in the fight when Fury should really feel safe. But when Whyte punches, he puts everything into his shots. So because of that, Fury should be able to see those punches coming and will be able to counter and make him pay. A lot of times, Whyte puts himself out of position because he’s rushing things or swinging wildly and opening himself up, and Fury will be able to catch him in transition.

I see both guys having success on the inside. I see Whyte having success landing his uppercut, especially when Fury tries to close the gap. Sometimes Fury sticks out his arms to tie up his opponents, and he’ll lean forward, and that will be a perfect time for Whyte to throw an uppercut down the middle. That would be a punch that Fury won’t see coming. It’s a shot that Wilder landed on Fury but didn’t throw enough in their third fight. I see that shot being available for Whyte. That’s a deadly punch that could do some serious damage.

Whyte doesn’t want this fight to go to the scorecards, and I don’t think it will. With 94,000 fans inside the stadium? When you have almost 100,000 people screaming, these guys are going to be able to hear the chants and hear these fans riled up, especially when things start to heat up. And it’s going to push both guys to go someplace they’ve never been before in their entire careers, good or bad.


Keys to victory

One thing we don’t talk enough about with both Fury and Whyte is their mental toughness. With heavyweights, a single punch can end the fight. We’ve seen these two guys go down and get up, so I think that will and guts are not going to be big factors in this fight. Both guys have it. For Fury, it’s going to come down to skill and execution, and size alone. I think that’s going to be the difference in this fight. Whyte needs to make this a street fight, not allow Fury to beat on him, not allow him to control distance. Whyte must punch with Fury and be in extremely good condition.

An advantage for Fury will be the right hand. It’s going to be behind the guards, similar to the punch he hit Wilder with in their second and third fights. I see the same punch being able to land on Whyte. Whyte uses the high guard, and when he does that, he leaves a lot of openings around and underneath the gloves. So Fury will be able to hit him down the middle, come around with the left hook and the right hand, which is Fury’s favorite combination. He’ll shoot the jab, shoot the jab, and while he’s throwing it, he will hook it and knock your gloves out of position, then come right down the middle with the right hand. He did that a lot against Wilder.

There’s a Whyte’s combination that could surprise Fury. It’s a one-two, but a hesitated one-two. Whyte will throw a jab, then do a shuffle step and throw a right down the middle, straight as an arrow. So, if Fury isn’t careful, he can get caught with it, similar to a punch he got caught with by Wilder when he went down for the second time in the fourth round of their third fight. It was a right hand right down the middle when Fury tried to close the gap on Wilder. He got caught with a short, crisp right hand.

Whyte can shoot his jab, get Fury to come in after he throws that jab, and throw that straight right hand down the middle. It is a dangerous shot, because Whyte’s right hand is so crisp, sharp and quick you don’t see it coming. That’s a perfect combination to throw when Fury starts closing the gap. That’s a perfect punch. And if Whyte lands that punch on Fury, it can do serious damage.

Another thing is you never know which Fury you are going to get. He can do it all, he can make adjustments on the fly, he can fight, he can fight coming forward and decide to go back and come forward again, and he can switch to southpaw. There’s so much he can do inside the ring. How do you imitate this guy in sparring to get ready?

I think one of the best things that happened for Fury for his last few fights was sparring with a 6-foot-4, young, ambitious, talented and always ready to test himself opponent in Jared Anderson. When you are as big as Fury, and you are fighting smaller guys, the fact you are working with a very skilled fighter like Anderson — one who possesses speed, power, coordination and is elusive with head movements — I think that prepares Fury well for Whyte.

Experience against top opposition will be key for both. Whyte has great experience against top heavyweights. He beat Dereck Chisora twice, same as Fury, he beat Joseph Parker, he fought twice against Alexander Povetkin and beat him once and he lost to Joshua. He has real quality names on his résumé. And he’s grown since that Joshua loss.


Who wins?

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Tyson Fury says his bout with Dillian Whyte will be the “last fight” of his career.

I’m going with Tyson Fury. This fight doesn’t pass the seventh round. I just think Fury is the overall better boxer, the better fighter in general. He’s bigger than everybody else. He has developed his punching power under the tutelage of SugarHill.


Ian Parker’s best bet

Tyson Fury will yet again grace us with his presence and will show us why he is the most dominant champion on the planet. Fury is going to be better everywhere in this fight, and as long as he doesn’t get emotional and get into a brawl (which he won’t), I expect Fury to dominate Whyte.

Look for Fury to use his elite footwork, hand speed, output and to work behind his jab, wearing Whyte out and eventually getting the finish.

Prediction: Fury via TKO.

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