The boundaries between fantasy hockey and NHL reality felt like they were melting last season.
The 2021-22 regular season had a per team, per game average of 3.14 goals. That was the highest offensive output since the 1995-96 season. The final score of some games resembled that of a pro lacrosse league contest. There were 51 players who scored at least 30 goals, and 17 who scored at least 40.
Was that offensive spike an anomaly, fueled by lineup changes and interruptions of routine caused by COVID-19 variants? Or was it the continuation of a years-long offensive trend in the NHL, fueled by everything from expansion-era roster dilution to a generational wave of scoring stars?
This is what every fantasy owner is considering in this year’s drafts: Which players saw their numbers lifted by the league’s rising offensive tide, and risked a regression to normalcy in the 2022-23 season?
That, and those other time-honored debates about team quality, ice time, old faces in new places and which players are worthy of top picks or late-round sleeper selections.
I’ve chosen to plant my flag on the following players for the 2022-23 season, for various reasons explained below. Some you’ll have high on your draft board already, while I make the case for others to join them. Happy drafting, fantasy fans!
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
There are three players at the top of every draft board projection: Matthews and the Edmonton Oilers’ duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It’s hard to argue against McDavid as the top fantasy player in the NHL. Look at least season: first in points, first in power-play points, second in assists, fifth in shots and seventh in goals. He’s a star, every season, and now he’ll have Evander Kane on his flank for the season. But if there’s an argument to be made, that argument is Auston Matthews.
Goals are harder to come by than points in fantasy hockey. No one scored more of them than Matthews last season (60). He has 19 more goals than Draisaitl over the last three seasons combined (148 to 129). He’s the most consistent shot generating star we’ve had since the peak of Alex Ovechkin. Matthews led the league last season and hit the goal 33 more times than Ovie himself over the last three seasons combined.
Matthews had 106 points in 73 games last season. He hasn’t played over 80 games since his rookie campaign. So keep that in mind … as well as the fact that if he does increase his games played, he’s likely to shatter that total.
Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights
There are aspects of the Vegas Golden Knights that leave me baffled. Why have they slowly drained their locker room of its identity? Is their goaltending good enough to get them back into the playoffs, sans Robin Lehner? But Eichel’s offensive output isn’t one of those questions. He’s going to roll.
Eichel had 14 points in his final 16 games with Vegas last season, including nine goals. When he plays, he’s elite: Over his last 200 NHL games, he’s averaged 2.05 points and 3.62 shots on goal per 60 minutes. But one of the reasons I’m planting my flag on Eichel is the hope that he gets more than 33 minutes with winger Mark Stone this season. Stone has scored over 20 goals in every season in which he’s played at least 55 games. Eichel’s rarely had that kind of offensive talent on his wing during his career.
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Kevin Fiala, RW, Los Angeles Kings
Fiala put up 33 goals and 52 assists in 82 games last season while playing the majority of his time with Frederick Gaudreau and Matt Boldy in Minnesota. After being traded to the Kings, his new linemates could be Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar, who remains a dependable point producer despite hitting his 35th birthday this summer. Fiala was eighth in the NHL last season with 3.10 points per 60 minutes. He received the fifth-highest average power play ice time among Minnesota forwards. We’ve got over 55 million reasons why he’ll see more in Los Angeles.
Jesper Bratt, RW, New Jersey Devils
Bratt had his breakout season in 2021-22, jumping from 2.4 points per 60 minutes to 3.3 points per 60. His average shots per game continued to rise for the third straight season. With better overall health and some young players improving, the Devils should finish much better than No. 19 overall in team offense. With he plays with Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, we like Bratt to continue to produce at an elite clip, especially with another restricted free agent negotiation set for next summer.
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken
Beniers projects to be the No. 1 center for the Kraken as a rookie. Given everything we’ve seen from him at the University of Michigan, international play and his brief NHL debut last season, there’s no reason to believe Beniers won’t be able to find immediate productivity as a 20-year-old. (He also had 18 shots in 10 games last season for the Kraken. More please.) But given how much explosiveness Seattle can offer him on the wings — Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky among them, he’s got a real shot at breaking out and winning the Calder Trophy this season.
Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes
I love the Burns move for the Hurricanes. He’s going to find Jaccob Slavin next to him, giving Burns his best defensive partner since Marc-Edouard Vlasic hit his Brent Seabrook phase. Dougie Hamilton and Tony DeAngelo thrived in that role in the Canes’ system and there’s no reason to believe Burns won’t follow in that tradition this season.
They’re getting him after a resurgent fantasy campaign with the San Jose Sharks: 54 points in 82 games with 203 shots. DeAngelo averaged more shots on goal per game than Burns did last season, so I expect that number to get closer to those shot totals Burns used to put up in San Jose. I think 60 points could be within reach for him, too. He’s also a more than capable power-play point man who joins a group that has special teams upside, especially when Max Pacioretty is ready to return from injury.
Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings
He’s got name recognition after that Calder Trophy win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t some fantasy managers that don’t quite know how great Seider was across the board. His 50 points tied him for 19th in the league among defensemen. Ditto his 187 shots on goal. If hits are rewarded in your league, he was just outside the top 30 with 151 collisions. He also picked up two shorthanded points. But the number we really liked: 21 power-play points. That ranked him 10th among defensemen, and that’s before the Red Wings added players like David Perron and Andrew Copp to the roster. No sophomore slump here.
Jeff Petry, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
While he shouldn’t be at the top of your draft board for defensemen, keep this new Penguin in mind for later rounds. Petry is one of the top bounce-back candidates in the NHL this season. His 1.1 points per 60 minutes average last season was his lowest since the 2016-17 campaign, but it could have been much worse: Petry had 11 points in his last 11 games of the season to salvage a disastrous campaign with the Montreal Canadiens. (Who, it should be said, were having their own disastrous campaign after making the Stanley Cup Final in 2021.)
Now he’s with the Penguins, who averaged 0.62 goals per game more than the Canadiens last season. It would be a shock if Petry doesn’t peak over 40 points again, especially if he ends up as the team’s second power-play point option. The only downside is that we don’t see Petry getting back to that 170-shot level, considering his minutes and the amount of shot generation typically seen from Penguins D-men.
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Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks
Finding true work horses among modern NHL goaltenders has become increasingly difficult. There are around 6-to-8 goalies that have a chance to do so these days, compared to about a dozen only seven seasons ago. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted starts over the last three seasons, but the fact remains that the NHL hasn’t seen a 70-game starter since Cam Talbot for the Minnesota Wild in 2016-17.
Demko may not hit 70 starts — although with Spencer Martin and Collin Delia behind him on the depth charter, we’re not counting that out. The Canucks are going to run him into the ground. He will be among the leaders in appearances this season for a Vancouver team that’ll be in the vicinity of the playoff bubble. Demko had 33 wins in 61 starts last season. He faced the third-most shots on goal (1,967) last season as well.
Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, G, Boston Bruins
Both goalies appeared in 41 games and started 39 times last season, with Ullmark getting a few more wins (26) and posting the better save percentage (.917). There’s a lot of speculation about whether the Bruins will see their six-season playoff streak end due to early season injuries, roster attrition and an aging core. What should be solid is the goaltending. The Bruins were in the top 10 in team save percentage last season (.907) and that could improve with the arrival of new head coach Jim Montgomery, who had Dallas near the top of the league in that category during his time with the Stars. I have no problem drafting both goalies in a tandem if I believe the tandem is good enough, and this one should qualify.
Oh, and as always, a bit of advice from your fantasy hockey friend: Be the one that starts the run on goalies, not the one that’s scrambling to catch up.
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