It all looked a little suspicious Tuesday when the Giants canceled a news conference in which they were expected to introduce Carlos Correa.
Then overnight it was followed by the stunning news that the $350 million agreement between San Francisco and the infielder had indeed fallen apart, and Correa is headed to the Mets on a 12-year, $315 million deal. For Giants fans, it’s like when Charlton Heston sees the destroyed Statue of Liberty at the end of the “Planet of the Apes” and bellows out in primal fury.
That’s probably what 29 other major league owners are doing right now. When Steve Cohen completed his purchase of the Mets after the 2020 season and became the richest owner in the sport, there was always the fear that he would ignore the unspoken agreement among owners and run his payroll well over the luxury tax threshold. He somewhat held the line his first two seasons, although the Mets did run a $288 million payroll in 2022, second highest behind the Dodgers and higher than the Yankees have ever run.
Now comes Correa to complete an offseason for the ages.
The Mets’ free-agent haul includes re-signing Brandon Nimmo ($162 million), Edwin Diaz ($102 million) and Adam Ottavino ($14.5 million), while adding Correa ($315 million), Justin Verlander ($86.667 million), Kodai Senga ($75 million), Jose Quintana ($26 million), Omar Narvaez ($15 million) and David Robertson ($10 million).
That’s $806 million in guaranteed commitments, with Correa signing the 10th-highest total value deal in history (although not as much as Francisco Lindor’s $341 million extension) and Verlander matching teammate Max Scherzer for the highest annual average value at $43.33 million. That $806 million is more than the Rays have spent on free agents in their entire franchise history, according to Cot’s contracts (a mere $366 million), and more than the Pirates ($305 million since 1991, the first year Cot’s began tracking free agent contracts) or the A’s ($450 million) or the Reds ($450 million) and perhaps a few other teams.
It is, in short, a stunning figure.
If Correa’s deal is completed, the team’s estimated payroll will be around $384 million. Based on that number, the Mets would owe an additional $111 million in luxury-tax payments. Their total payroll, as of now, is expected to be just shy of $500 million. In baseball history, no team has come within $150 million of that number. “We needed one more thing, and this is it,” Cohen told The New York Post. “This puts us over the top.”
Well … at least over the top of all previous payroll markers. The surprising thing here is Correa is an imperfect fit for the Mets. With Lindor at shortstop, Correa will move over to third base, pushing solid veteran Eduardo Escobar to a bench or DH role (assuming he isn’t traded, which is probably likely). The Mets are paying for one of the best all-around shortstops in the majors, but getting a third baseman.
In the short term, maybe that isn’t a big deal. The Mets were third in the National League in runs in 2022, but only eighth in home runs, so they wanted another middle-of-the-order bat, and Correa’s bat profiles there.
Still, Escobar wasn’t a zero at the plate in 2022. In 542 plate appearances last season, Escobar was essentially a league average batter, via Baseball-Reference.com, with a runs created above average of 0. Correa, in 590 PAs, was 27 runs better than average. So offensively, this projects to about a three-win upgrade based on 2022 levels of play and gives the Mets this projected lineup:
1. CF Brandon Nimmo
2. 3B Carlos Correa
3. SS Francisco Lindor
4. 1B Pete Alonso
5. 2B Jeff McNeil
6. RF Starling Marte
7. DH Dan Vogelbach/Eduardo Escobar
8. LF Mark Canha
9. C Omar Narvaez/James McCann/Tomas Nido
Yeah, good luck getting a ticket to Citi Field this year — although I’m not convinced the Mets are any better than the Braves. Remember, most of these free agents were merely the same players as last season or replaced free agents they lost (Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker). Correa becomes the major exception.
That catching group now includes Narvaez, and one is likely to be traded, especially because it could also eventually feature top prospect Francisco Alvarez. Indeed, that’s one of the important aspects of the Mets’ offseason: They simply spent money and kept their prospects, including Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty, shortstop Ronny Mauricio and third/first baseman Mark Vientos.
As a bonus, none of the free agents they signed will cost them a draft pick. Cohen is spending big bucks to build out the roster now, but he’s ultimately intent on improving the entire organization from top to bottom. Maybe Baty is squeezed out of a job for now, or maybe he’s a useful bench player, and if Alvarez keeps mashing, he’ll hit his way into the lineup. Too many good players is a good problem to have, and the Mets will eventually have to work some youth into their lineup.
As for Correa’s long-term value, that’s where I’m a little concerned about how this deal plays out. Clearly, the Giants saw something during Correa’s physical that scared them off from completing the deal. Remember, Correa played just 75 games in 2019 because of a back injury. He has been relatively healthy the past three seasons — he did miss 26 games in 2022 with a finger injury — but that back injury lingers as a potential red flag.
The Mets do get Correa starting in his age-28 season — two years younger than Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts and the same age as Lindor last season, the first year of Lindor’s 10-year extension. While Correa should have several peak-level seasons in him, my research on shortstops since 1969 shows that the fast shortstops, in general, age much better than the slower shortstops. Correa doesn’t run as well as those three players — he was in the 45th percentile in sprint speed among all players last season — and is a complete nonfactor on the bases (his last stolen base came in 2019).
His defense at shortstop also slipped last season (18th percentile in outs above average). Maybe that was just a one-year aberration, and while he has the tools to be an outstanding third baseman, that’s not a lock. Alex Rodriguez, for example, was a good shortstop, but merely OK at third base (and he moved there at the same age as Correa). If I had to pick, I’d prefer Turner on his 11-year deal over Correa and his 12-year deal.
With Correa signed through 2034, Lindor through 2031 and Nimmo through 2030, the Mets could have three bad contracts down the road. They’ll probably have to reconfigure their rotation after 2024, when Scherzer and Verlander are both free agents. But they’ll tackle those issues as they arrive and, well, Cohen has the money to plug holes. (And dear lord, does this now make the Mets the favorites to land Shohei Ohtani next year?)
For the next two seasons, however, it’s World Series or bust.