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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The Hockey Hall of Fame can welcome up to four men’s players in every annual class.
Based on how many current NHL players could be worthy of a plaque in Toronto — and how many qualified candidates are still waiting for the call — the Hall will not suffer from a lack of choices.
Here is a tiered ranking of active NHL players based on their current Hall of Fame cases. There are about a dozen locks, joining recently retired icons like Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron and Duncan Keith in line for immortality. There are dozens more that are still building their cases, as well as veterans that are stuck between all-time greatness and “the Hall of Very Good.”
Let’s begin with the two players that have defined hockey this century:
Skip the wait (if they still did this)
In 1999, Wayne Gretzky played his final game as a professional hockey player. Soon after, it was announced that the selection committee had made him the 10th player in NHL history to have the mandatory three-year waiting period for possible enshrinement waived. When you’re “The Great One,” the holder of dozens of scoring records and on your way to getting your No. 99 retired across the entire league, that made sense.
But the practice ended with Gretzky. The committee feared that they were creating a God-tier class of inductee by waiving the wait period for no reason other than on-ice accomplishment, for players like Gretzky and Bobby Orr. It was decided that the wait period would henceforth only get waived for “certain humanitarian circumstances.”
If this special exception was still in effect, Crosby and Ovechkin are on that “best of the best” tier for their generation of players. Sid led the Pittsburgh Penguins to three Stanley Cup wins and scored the second most important goal in Canadian international hockey history (in 2010), winning multiple gold medals through the years. He’s at 1,517 career points and counting, almost assured of finishing in the top 10 all-time.
You could make the argument that Ovechkin belongs here with or without breaking Gretzky’s all-time goals record. He’s second all-time in goals during an era where goal-scoring was significantly more difficult than when Gretzky set his mark, from the goaltenders to the quality of defense. It’s not just generational snobbery to say he’s the best goal-scorer in NHL history.
The Hockey Hall of Fame is a place that celebrates the story of the game and the people who authored it. To that end, Crosby and Ovechkin were the two most important players to the growth of the NHL since Gretzky. Their rivalry as diametrically opposed forces fueled interest in the NHL after a cancelled season dramatically reduced it. They inspired peers, entertained the masses and defined the sport for over 15 years.
Hockey fans were blessed to experience it.
Immortal locks
Marc-Andre Fleury
Victor Hedman
Erik Karlsson
Anze Kopitar
Evgeni Malkin
Brad Marchand
Connor McDavid
Patrick Kane
Steven Stamkos
Paul Pidutti of Adjusted Hockey uses his own methodology to determine worthiness of candidates. Using that process, he’s determined 41 players whose on-ice achievement places them in the “inner circle” if candidates, or “the greatest among the greatest.”
Along with Crosby and Ovechkin, two players from the list above have qualified for Pidutti’s elite grouping: Malkin and McDavid.
Malkin is 18th all-time in points-per-game average (1.16). He has a Calder Trophy, a Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and a Conn Smythe on his mantle. He may not always make NHL top 100 lists, but that’s just part of the reason his eventual enshrinement will be all the sweeter, with Malkin finally getting the flowers he deserves.
At just 26 years old, McDavid is already a lock for the Hall of Fame. His first eight seasons in the league are on that Gretzky or Mario Lemieux level of sheer dominance: Five scoring titles and a goal-scoring title, three MVP awards and four NHLPA player of the year nods. He doesn’t have a Stanley Cup and never had a chance to play for an Olympic medal, but he does have gold in the IIHF world championships and the under-20 and under-18 world championships.
I think Hedman and Karlsson defined the era in between the end of Nicklas Lidstrom’s reign and that wave of young elite defenseman that are the defensive ruling class today. Hedman’s Norris Trophy win and six straight seasons as a finalist make him a lock. Karlsson’s Norris win last season also cemented him as a Hall of Famer — everyone with at least three Norris trophies is in the Hall. He’s also seventh among defensemen in points per game (min. 657 games, or Bobby Orr’s career).
Kane is 10th all-time in points by a right wing. Stamkos was, statistically, the second best goal-scorer in the NHL behind Ovechkin since 2008. Kopitar is also an easy call: sixth among active players in points (1,155) and a multiple Selke Trophy winner during the Patrice Bergeron era.
Speaking of the Boston Bruins, Pidutti also thinks Marchand is a lock as one of the best left wings to play in this century. “He’s elite on production alone,” he told me. Add in the championship success and that Marchand charm that fulfills the “fame” requirement, and he’ll be in the Hall.
Fleury may not be considered in that category of elite netminders where you’d find, say, Patrick Roy — Pidutti ranks him 24th all-time. But he’s going to pass Roy for second in career NHL wins over a career spanning 20 seasons. He’s a Vezina Trophy winner, a well-liked player and a Hall of Fame lock.
On the way
Sergei Bobrovsky
Cale Makar
Leon Draisaitl
Nikita Kucherov
Auston Matthews
Nathan MacKinnon
David Pastrnak
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Makar is putting together a McDavid-esque run as a defenseman, winning the Norris and finishing as a finalist in three straight seasons. He also has some accomplishments Connor doesn’t have: a Stanley Cup win and a Conn Smythe Trophy. For defenseman with at least 250 NHL games played, he’s third all-time in points-per-game average (1.04) behind Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey.
Matthews is another one clearly on his way. For players that have at least 495 games played, the Maple Leafs stars is third all-time in goals per game (0.63) behind Mike Bossy and Mario Lemieux. We were tempted to put both of these players in the lock category. Give them another couple of seasons.
One step behind Matthews are Draisaitl and Pastrnak. The Oilers star has the third most goals since 2016-17, when he really found his stride. Ditto that for Pasta, who had the fifth most goals and the eighth best points-per-game average in that span.
If we’re talking points per game, then we’re talking Kucherov, who is fifth among active players in that category; and MacKinnon, who is fourth since 2017-18, when he began his peak run. MacKinnon has a Cup. Kucherov has two Cups and one of the most preeminent MVP seasons in recent memory to win the Hart in 2018-19.
Kucherov’s teammate Vasilevskiy is moving up the wins chart, leading the league in that category in five of the last six seasons. He has a Vezina, a Conn Smythe and the reputation as one of the NHL’s top postseason goalies ever. Bobrovsky should be well into the top 20 all-time in wins by season’s end. The Panthers goalie has two Vezina wins; since 1981, only one goalie with multiple Vezina wins isn’t in the Hall, and that’s former Bruins star Tim Thomas.
Team Canada darlings
Drew Doughty
Corey Perry
Alex Pietrangelo
Carey Price
Eric Staal
John Tavares
Since 2010, the Canadian men’s national team has captured three significant championships, winning Olympic gold in Vancouver (2010) and Sochi (2014) and capturing the World Cup of Hockey in 2016 when that tournament was revived by the NHL and the NHLPA. A number of players who starred on those teams — but also had tremendous NHL careers — are going to start coming up for Hall of Fame induction soon.
We can argue the overall impact of Tavares, especially after signing in Toronto, but he’s easily one of the top scorers of his generation who will end up with over 500 goals and 1,000 points.
Doughty was nominated for the Norris four times, winning it once. He was a foundational player on two Stanley Cup championship teams. His stamina is his virtue: Doughty leads all defensemen in average ice time (26:15) since the NHL started tracking that stat. Plus, Canadian media members have praised him to the moon and back. Speaking of which: Carey Price.
Pidutti has Price 27th among all goalies, but concedes he’ll likely be a Hall of Famer. “Statistically he’s actually only a little bit better than Ryan Miller, but I just think based on reputation that he’s gonna create support,” he said.
Price become just the seventh goalie ever to win the Hart Trophy in 2014-15, and Pidutti believes that dominant season is a “separator” between Price and other recent goaltenders with Hall aspirations.
Pietrangelo is top 10 in points among active defensemen, and was the backbone on two different Stanley Cup winners in St. Louis and Vegas.
Staal has 455 goals and 1,063 points in a solid 18-year career. Perry has 891 points in 1,270 games, including 420 goals. He has a Hart Trophy and a goal-scoring crown. What’s a bit interesting about his candidacy is how Perry went from being a top tier scorer to an essential role player on contending teams, all while maintaining his unique brand of whimsy.
Veteran maybes
Nicklas Backstrom
Brent Burns
Jeff Carter
Claude Giroux
Roman Josi
Kris Letang
Phil Kessel
Ryan O’Reilly
Artemi Panarin
Joe Pavelski
Ryan Suter
Kessel might want to monitor Patrick Marleau’s candidacy to see if someone holding a considerable NHL games played record can break through into the Hall — although Marleau’s got better numbers than Phil The Thrill. That said, “Hockey Hall of Famer Phil Kessel” is such an indelible turn of phrase that we need to see it happen.
Pavelski has well over 1,000 points and is creeping in on 500 goals. He’s never been top of mind for individual awards and is still chasing a Stanley Cup, but he’s well respected for sacrificing his body in front of the net for 18 years. Suter is like Pavelski — long-serving American player, international hockey experience, good numbers, no accolades — but without the inherent charm.
Backstrom’s Hall of Fame credentials have been a topic of conversation with him stepping away from the Capitals due to injury. His numbers are terrific: 1,033 points in 1,105 games, much of that as a setup man for Ovechkin. He never got a sniff of the Selke despite being one of the better two-way centers in the NHL. Backstrom could easily fall into that “underappreciated in his time” Hall of Famers who get the call after several years of eligibility.
O’Reilly does have a Selke but probably not the overall career to warrant enshrinement — at least not yet. Pidutti sees Giroux as a “Hall of Very Good” player. Carter is there too, despite 431 goals, seventh among active players.
Burns is 14th all-time in points by a defenseman with 844 points in 1,348 games, with the caveat that some of those points were collected when he was a young forward. Nonetheless, he has a Norris, three nominations in total, a chance at the top 10 in all-time points and is eccentric enough to fulfill the fame quotient.
“I actually hope he gets in because when I looked at him closely, he was way better than everyone wants to remember,” Pidutti told me.
Josi has his Norris and is a two-time finalist. He’s got a few years left in him to bolster his point total (611). Letang never won the Norris, but he has the numbers (698 points) and two Cup wins to his credit.
Panarin has the most upward mobility here. He’s just outside the top 5 in points per game among active players, so the Breadman could improve on his 685 points in 604 games. But he just turned 33, making him basically ancient compared to this next tier.
Primetime maybes
Sebastian Aho
Aleksander Barkov
Adam Fox
Jack Eichel
Kirill Kaprizov
Mitchell Marner
Elias Pettersson
Brayden Point
Mikko Rantanen
Mark Scheifele
Tage Thompson
Matthew Tkachuk
All of these players are under 30 save for Scheifele, who will need a lot more to build a sturdy Hall of Fame case (he’s 35th among active players in points). The same could be said for Laine (200 goals) and Thompson, the former having started his career with great numbers and the latter just coming into his own recently.
Eichel has 461 points in 491 games, and he also now has our attention as an elite, Stanley Cup-winning two-way center. Tkachuk didn’t win the Cup for the Panthers, but the 25-year-old also cemented his NHL stardom with that epic playoff run.
Tkachuk is eighth over the last five seasons in points. Marner (seventh) and Rantanen (ninth) are trending up, although Mitch could use a Selke or a Cup to really level up. (So, this being the Leafs we’re talking about here… a Selke, I guess.)
Barkov is building a really impressive case as arguably the third best defensive center of the Bergeron Era, with one Selke win already. He’s likely ahead of Aho here as “Finnish two-way centers with Hall of Fame potential.”
Two players we’re excited to watch continue on their path to immortality: Pettersson, who has pushed above a point-per-game pace in his career; and Fox, who has a Norris win and is fifth in points among defensemen since debuting in 2019-20.
What would Kaprizov’s case look like if he didn’t spend those first few years in Russia? An excellent thought experiment.
Goalie mysteries
Connor Hellebuyck
Igor Shesterkin
Ilya Sorokin
Jonathan Quick
The Hockey Hall of Fame has an unpredictable approach to goaltenders. They move quickly on some legendary netminders like Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist and Roberto Luongo, who were all inducted in their first years of eligibility. But Class of 2023 inductees Mike Vernon and Tom Barrasso had to wait 18 years. Rogie Vachon, inducted in 2016? He last played in the 1981-82 season. Again, you figure it out.
Quick ranks 62nd based on Pidutti’s model, but he was fourth in wins and led the league in shutouts from 2010-18, winning two Stanley Cups. I think he’s going to be close, but his lack of a Vezina hurts.
None of the other three goalies here have a Cup, but Hellebuyck and Shesterkin have Vezina wins. Obviously, we’ll see where these three end up statistically in the next several seasons, but they could have a case — provided the selection committee ever decides to take them up.
The under-24 tier
Connor Bedard
Rasmus Dahlin
Miro Heiskanen
Jack Hughes
Quinn Hughes
Jason Robertson
Tim Stutzle
Brady Tkachuk
Finally, the young’ins.
From this group, Quinn Hughes, Heiskanen and Dahlin seem poised to get some Norris love soon. Jack Hughes was on the Hart Trophy short list before his injury and has found his groove as an NHL star. Then there’s Bedard, who was billed as a generational talent when the Chicago Blackhawks drafted him first overall last summer. He’s done nothing in his first dozen NHL games to discourage that narrative.
There are many more names we could throw in here, from Buffalo defenseman Owen Power to any of the Anaheim Ducks‘ collection of young stars. The future is very bright in the NHL. Maybe even Hall of Fame-worthy.