Why did the Steelers quickly go from ‘full faith’ in Kenny Pickett to bringing in Wilson?

PITTSBURGH — Standing in front of a small group of reporters on the second floor of an Indianapolis hotel during the 2024 NFL combine, Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Omar Khan expressed “full faith” in quarterback Kenny Pickett.

Ten days later, just before midnight, Russell Wilson posted a video montage of Steelers fans waving Terrible Towels set to “Renegade” by Styx and tagged the Steelers on his social media platforms, confirming what league sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Sunday night: The Super Bowl-winning quarterback and nine-time Pro Bowler would soon sign with the Steelers on a one-year, team-friendly deal.

In a move that defies the Steelers’ traditional team-building methods and seemingly spurns a foundational tenet of loyalty, Khan’s actions Sunday night spoke louder than his words from less than two weeks ago.

Steelers brass said repeatedly they wanted competition for their 2022 first-round pick, but a Super Bowl-winning quarterback — even past his prime — is more than just a camp arm to push Pickett. Pickett, of course, is still under contract, but the competition to retain the starting job just got that much tougher — and it might not be a competition at all.

In signing 35-year-old Wilson, the Steelers are telegraphing their evaluation of Pickett, suggesting he’s on much more tenuous footing than publicly expressed. The move also points to another internal belief: the Steelers are in a win-now mode and believe they’re a quarterback away from erasing a drought of playoff wins that extends all the way back to 2016.

From Wilson’s perspective, the move makes perfect sense. In Pittsburgh, Wilson has a clear path to a starting job in an organization that has a rich, winning tradition and a well-established structure under a future Hall-of-Fame head coach. Schematically, Wilson’s skillset and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s tendencies have the potential to be a match made in football heaven.

In his final season in Denver, Wilson had a QBR of 80 when using play action, compared to a QBR of 40 without it. He threw 11 touchdowns to one interception with play action and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Without play action, Wilson threw 15 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.

During his three-year tenure in Atlanta, Smith’s offenses used play action at the second-highest rate (32%). And in Tennessee, Smith employed a similar philosophy, building a balanced offense thanks to a formidable ground game anchored by Derrick Henry and complementary passing game.

Though maligned for his decision-making and struggles in his first season in Denver, Wilson showed a dramatic improvement in his second season prior to his release. Wilson improved from throwing 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2022 to 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2023. The Steelers haven’t had a quarterback throw 26 touchdowns in a season since Ben Roethlisberger threw 33 in 2020.

For all his improvements in 2023, Wilson still had some trouble holding on to the ball for too long. His average time to throw (3.06 seconds) was second-longest in the league, ahead of only Justin Fields, and last season, the Steelers struggled in pass protection, ranking 17th in pass block win rate. That means adding another first-round offensive tackle to pair with 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones is that much more important in April’s draft.

In a short-term football sense, the addition of Wilson is a boost for the Steelers’ offense. But long-term, his signing prompts more questions than it does provide answers.

With a $1.2 million price tag, Wilson makes plenty of fiscal sense. In his short tenure as general manager, Khan has quickly built a reputation for wheeling and dealing and finding good bargains for short-term solutions — cornerback Patrick Peterson, receiver Allen Robinson, linebacker Kwon Alexander. For a veteran-minimum salary, Wilson fits the bill as a signature Khan signing.

And while Wilson expressed a desire to win two more Super Bowls in a recent podcast interview, he realistically has more days behind him than on the horizon. Wilson isn’t a long-term solution, and his addition to the quarterback room muddles the future of an already uncertain quarterback position.

The Steelers have to make the decision on Pickett’s fifth-year option in May 2025. If Wilson does indeed land the starting job, evaluating Pickett and his capabilities outside a Matt Canada offense becomes that much harder. And if Pickett doesn’t get any significant playing time this year, picking up that option — which started at $22 million for quarterbacks this season — would be financially irresponsible. Does that mean the Steelers would be back in the market for a quarterback in the 2025 draft? Or maybe in 2026 after Pickett — or even Wilson — plays a final season?

The safe option was once the most expected one, re-signing longtime backup and late-season hero Mason Rudolph to have a true competition with Pickett, maybe even one with the scales slightly tipped in Pickett’s favor. Instead, Wilson’s signing all but shuts the door on Rudolph’s return, and according to a league source, he’s expected to test free agency.

Typically conservative in their approach to free agency with a preference in building through the draft, the Steelers are spurning tradition for what they hope will be a quick-fix bargain. It could be the first step to breaking out of a cycle of mediocrity. Or it could cement their place in a direction-less, post-Roethlisberger purgatory.

ESPN Stats and Information contributed to this report.