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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Steven Stamkos is hitting the free agent market.
The first time we considered this possibility was back in 2016, before Stamkos signed an eight-year deal worth $68 million with the Tampa Bay Lightning two days before July 1. But this time is different. Both Stamkos’ agent Don Meehan and Lightning GM Julien BriseBois have indicated that the star forward is “going to July 1” this summer.
How we got here: Before the season, Stamkos publicly addressed his frustration over a lack of substantive contract extension talks with the Lightning. BriseBois said he wanted to wait until after the season to see what the Tampa Bay roster needed, and then would offer Stamkos something within the financial confines of addressing those needs.
The contract he offered Stamkos wasn’t sufficient to re-sign him. Nor did it increase as the Lightning cleared out cap space and free agency neared. The general manager told Meehan that “it’s the best interest of our organization to explore all options in the coming days, whether it be via trades or by getting into free agency.”
On Sunday, Tampa Bay acquired the negotiating rights to Jake Guentzel from the Carolina Hurricanes (and subsequently agreed to a contract); Guentzel might become Stamkos’ replacement in the lineup.
Where could Stamkos end up as a free agent? Here’s a look at 16 possibilities, with the knowledge that other candidates are out there.
Top contender tier
The connections here are obvious: No general manager spent as many years generally managing Steven Stamkos as Steve Yzerman, the current head of hockey operations for the Red Wings. Derek Lalonde, the team’s head coach, was Jon Cooper’s right-hand man in Tampa Bay during their two Stanley Cup championships with Stamkos.
The fit here is obvious: The Red Wings desperately need more offensive pop beyond their top line and have a glaring hole at center behind Dylan Larkin.
The Red Wings have a significant amount of salary cap space — $32.77 million, before bringing back Patrick Kane — and have cleared additional roster space with a (rather unpopular) trade that sent defenseman Jake Walman to San Jose. “We needed to move at least one contract to do some of the things we got to do,” Yzerman said.
The Red Wings haven’t made the playoffs since 2016, which means they’ve been outside the postseason picture for the entirety of the Yzerman era, which started in 2019. He has been aggressive in adding veteran UFAs in the past to get them back. It doesn’t get more aggressive than getting a Winged Wheel on Steven Stamkos’ chest.
Steven Stamkos and Patrick Kane on the same line? This is like something you’d manufacture on EA Sports NHL 11.
I heard the Predators as a potential landing spot for Stamkos back in March. He fits the philosophy that general manager Barry Trotz has quickly established in Nashville: Playing with offensive pace under coach Andrew Brunette and augmenting a young roster with veteran stars who have won before. It started with Ryan O’Reilly, a Conn Smythe winner; it could continue with Stamkos, who has two Stanley Cup rings and 128 games of playoff experience.
He can slide in at center behind O’Reilly, but his biggest impact is probably on left wing, where Stamkos has played the majority of his time in Tampa Bay in recent seasons. They tried to address that hole on the left side by trading for Anthony Beauvillier and Jason Zucker at the trade deadline. Needless to say, Stamkos is more than a bandage.
Tennessee is a bit like Florida for Stamkos. No state income tax. A comparable media market. And we already know he looks good in the local garb.
His stuff is there.
OK, there are many other reasons Steven Stamkos would love to return to the Lightning, from finishing his career with a single franchise to pursuing a third Stanley Cup championship with a core of close teammates as their captain. He was outstanding for them last season: 40 goals, 41 assists in 79 games, before an equally outstanding postseason.
But BriseBois is a man of his word. He said there was a number he’d go to in order to re-sign Stamkos, while making the rest of the Lightning better. He has stuck to that number — even after the Bolts created more cap space during the draft, BriseBois told ESPN that his offer to Stamkos didn’t increase.
If the captain wants to return to this buccaneer ship, it’s most likely for the terms on the table. Which also means swallowing a lot of pride in the process. But you can’t count out a last-minute breakthrough, unless Tampa Bay has totally moved on from its star.
To paraphrase Danny Ocean: “You didn’t really think they were going to sit this one out, did you?”
The Golden Knights never met an available star player they couldn’t try to obtain. Combine that with the bad taste from a playoff disappointment, and owner Bill Foley will only encourage aggressive retooling.
Do they have they cap space? Of course not. But that never stopped them from creating some to get what they want. And with Jonathan Marchessault apparently become the latest beloved player to hit the bricks in the name of big-name hunting, all eyes will be on Vegas on July 1.
Logical fits tier
In their first post-Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci season, the Bruins managed to thrive in the regular season with their center depth … and then were summarily devoured in the playoffs in the middle. Stamkos obviously addresses that.
If it’s on left wing, then Stamkos is a notable upgrade over Jake DeBrusk, who is an unrestricted free agent. Adding Stamkos would be a boost to the lineup — and wouldn’t a power play with Stamkos zinging passes to David Pastrnak be rather fun to watch?
The Bruins have roughly $21.6 million in open cap space, although some of them is headed into Jeremy Swayman‘s bank account. Stamkos is a star; but for what the Bruins need, and who they are, is committing that kind of cash to a 34-year-old Stamkos better than committing it to a 29-year-old Elias Lindholm? (Or eventually to a 29-year-old Leon Draisaitl next sum… sorry, Edmonton, we’ll quiet down.)
After Guentzel spurned them, perhaps the Hurricanes fix their offensive issues with the player the Lightning jettisoned in favor of him?
Carolina has a glaring need for Stamkos on their second line, as either a center or a wing. They have an ongoing need for something to be a clutch performer in the postseason, where Stamkos has extensive experience. The Hurricanes could have over $23 million in cap space with which to operate this summer, although they need to address their blue line and hand out new deals to Seth Jarvis and Martin Necas, provided the latter isn’t traded.
If GM Eric Tulsky wants to make a splash in his first offseason at the helm, Stamkos is like a cannonball from the highest diving board.
GM Jim Nill basically has a sign on the front of the Stars’ arena that reads: “WANTED: Respected veteran star forward, potential Joe Pavelski replacement.”
Obviously, Stamkos’ offensive game doesn’t resemble that of Pavelski, from the physicality to the fearlessness in front of the crease. But his gravitas, hunger and postseason aptitude (101 points in 128 career games, including five goals in five games last postseason) would help fill that absence.
The Stars have just over $19 million in open space and plenty business to handle — especially on the back end — but they do have the same lack of state income tax that Tampa Bay has used to its advantage.
The Kings have over $19 million in projected cap space, although Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev need new deals. Stamkos bolsters their top-six group by either slotting in as a second-line center so Phillip Danault drops down a line, or skating on left wing across from Kevin Fiala on their second line.
Los Angeles remains in a win-now mode with Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty nearing their twilight years. Stamkos would be an immediate boost to their lineup — hey, maybe they could even beat the Oilers in the playoffs for once. If nothing more, Stamkos would a new home where he could still uses his jet ski.
The Devils have a robust amount of cap space (over $19 million) heading into free agency, although some of it is expected to be gobbled up by Carolina defenseman Brett Pesce and potentially another veteran blueliner. But if they can make the numbers work, Stamkos fits in nicely next to Jack Hughes on the Devils’ top line, essentially filling the role that Tyler Toffoli had last season.
Obviously, they could use his experience and leadership in a room that could use a bit more of both. Stamkos will walk into Jersey to see a friendly face: Winger Ondrej Palat, who signed with the Devils two years ago.
GM Bill Armstrong told me that finding a player for “the poster on the outside of the arena” isn’t necessarily a priority. Utah believes it has that kind of offensive player on the roster, be it Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley or Dylan Guenther. It’s not like the team needs any help selling tickets … but having Stamkos as the first face of the new franchise wouldn’t hurt in further energizing the fan base, making a good offensive team even better and showing that the Smith Entertainment Group is ready to ante up to build a winner.
Besides, there would be a certain amount of irony in being reunited with defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, whom we all assumed the Lightning traded to Utah to open up cap space for Stamkos.
Wild-card tier
When Stamkos was flirting with free agency back in 2016, there was speculation that Buffalo had a geographic advantage over other suitors, given that Stamkos is an Ontario boy. But the courtship never got much further than Stamkos’s agent bumping into owner Terry Pegula at the NHL draft.
Stamkos is the kind of veteran scorer this Sabres lineup could use, both in intangibles and offensive pop. He’s essentially a turbo-charged version of what Jeff Skinner brought to Tage Thompson‘s top line — and much less of a defensive liability. But Stamkos could also anchor a second scoring line for the Sabres, too, helping develop other young talent.
Buffalo has $31.7 million in cap space after its buyout of Skinner but only 12 players under contract for next season. GM Kevyn Adams has talked about being active in free agency. Outside of Patrick Kane, who grew up a Sabres fan but has yet avoided a homecoming, no one on the market had the star power or veteran leadership that Stamkos could provide a roster that lacks both.
The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since 2011. That’s probably not the greatest selling point for a guy coming from one of the most successful franchises of the past decade.
Steven Stamkos’ advice to Connor Bedard before the Chicago rookie’s Calder Trophy-winning season: “Enjoy the moment. It goes by fast.”
Boy, does it. One minute you’re a franchise savior, the next you’re a 34-year-old being given a low-ball contract offer.
Stamkos said the Blackhawks had “embraced the rebuild a little bit, and have some really good young pieces in play and obviously one of the best hockey markets in the world.”
Does that mean Stamkos would join the Hawks as a linemate/mentor to Bedard? There are probably worse places to be than on the left side of a young center with an otherworldly shot. Chicago has ample cap space (over $28 million) but note that GM Kyle Davidson has sought to temper expectations about making a splash this summer — like when rumors that Chicago might pursue Guentzel as Bedard’s linemate started popping up.
“He was my mentor, for sure. Everyone saw the chemistry we had on the ice, but not lot of people know, just because they don’t get the behind-the-scenes look, of how much he meant to me, not only as a teammate but as a great friend.”
That was Stamkos in 2017 on Marty St. Louis, his former Lightning teammate whose number was being retired in Tampa Bay. St. Louis has been the coach in Montreal for the past three seasons, overseeing a group that has gotten increasingly younger. While they’re not playoff contenders, it’s probably time for the Habs to emerge from the division basement. To that end, St. Louis could use a hand from an old friend.
Stamkos would be an offensive boost to the Habs, slotting in next to Alex Newhook and bolstering a power play that ranked 27th in the NHL last season (17.5%).
Again, not the ideal place if Stamkos is thinking “win now.” But they have the cap space ($10.2 million) and some potential (can’t wait to see a full season of Lane Hutson) if he’s patient.
As BriseBois was announcing that he wasn’t upping his offer to Stamkos, something started trending on social media in Canada: “He’s 34.”
Quite a change from when they were sneaking Stamkos jerseys in the Leafs locker room back in 2015.
It seemed like a collective preemptive strike from Leafs Nation as they see a roster that’s already top heavy in allocated cap space for offense stars — something Stamkos himself ridiculed — and has glaring needs on defense and in goal.
Would it be a kick to see the Markham, Ontario, native work his offensive magic with the likes of Auston Matthews? Absolutely. Does it make sense from a financial or roster construction standpoint? Not really. But in the ongoing search for that secret ingredient that could snap a 56-year Stanley Cup drought, why not a motivated former champion/locally born savior?
The most hilarious tier
His stuff is sorta there?
With Sam Reinhart reupping with the Panthers and a new contract for Carter Verhaeghe reportedly in the works, there may not be room for Stamkos on the Stanley Cup champions. But it would be the ultimate spite move for the Lightning captain to migrate down to south Florida and sign on with Tampa Bay’s archrivals — a divisional opponent, no less. They’re not a bad hockey team, either.
Now this could just be one of those delicious moments of hockey symmetry: The Penguins trade away Sidney Crosby‘s winger Jake Guentzel at the deadline last season, citing a lack of appetite to extend him; Guentzel ends up with the Tampa Bay Lightning, ostensibly as Stamkos’ replacement on the roster; and Stamkos signs for fewer dollars and fewer years to play on Sid’s wing.
I mean, the Hockey Gods do have a wicked sense of humor sometimes.
This isn’t a good financial fit, as the Penguins have around $8 million in cap space and a defense to build out. But for a team that remains stubbornly “win now,” what’s one more star player in his mid-30s?