Lando Norris expects to be fighting Max Verstappen for victory in the Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday – despite the pair starting fourth and 11th on the grid.
Norris was fifth fastest in a wet qualifying session at Spa-Francorchamps which was dominated by Verstappen’s Red Bull.
But the Dutchman has a 10-place grid penalty for exceeding the permitted number of engine components.
Norris said: “We are in a good spot but Red Bull are clearly the quickest.
“It will be tough. Max is going to come through pretty quickly and most likely [we will] be fighting him for the win, and I’m sure he’ll be a threat for us at some point.”
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella went further, saying he believed Verstappen was “favourite” to win.
“He has been exceptionally fast in dry conditions,” Stella said. “He has been very fast in wet conditions.
“We knew that on this kind of track still Red Bull were likely to have an edge on us. This was proven in the wet and in dry.
“We will have to drive well, exploit the strengths of the car and hopefully gain a time advantage at the start that hopefully – even if Max makes it through the field – we are far enough ahead.”
Norris and team-mate Oscar Piastri, who will start alongside the Briton in fifth after his maiden grand prix victory last weekend, have chosen relatively low downforce settings for the race, which in theory will boost their speed on the long straights.
“I’m hoping with the slightly lower downforce setting we chose it comes back in our favour,” Norris said.
Starting seven places ahead of Verstappen gives Norris an opportunity to close the Red Bull driver’s 76-point championship lead heading into F1’s summer break.
Norris and Piastri ended Friday’s practice day first and second ahead of Verstappen, who believes the McLaren will be the quickest car in the race.
The world champion said: “Looking at their pace in the long run [on Friday], it was incredibly strong. They are starting a little bit further back [from the front], but they are so fast they will quite quickly challenge for the lead. I will be happy if we can just match that race pace.”
Verstappen has chosen a higher downforce setting than McLaren, which he preferred the feel of and believes will also help keep his tyres in good condition in a race where tyre degradation is expected to be high.
The Dutchman has won the past two Belgian Grands Prix after being demoted as a result of a grid penalty – in 2022 from 14th and last year from sixth – but he said this year his task would be more difficult because the field has closed up, and the Red Bull does not have the advantage it held in 2022 and 2023.
“The cars around us are quicker,” Verstappen said. “I am not as confident as in the last two years [in the possibility of] coming back to the front. I still see it as a damage limitation race. That’s what it is.
“We optimised everything from our side for the race. I hope the tyres will hold up and we can at least fight with Ferrari and Mercedes. McLaren might be a little out of reach, but we will find out.
“I don’t think it’s that straightforward for me but hopefully we have have a strong race and have a bit of fun out there.”
Leclerc predicts ‘tricky race’ from pole
Ahead of the McLarens at the start will be the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc, which starts from pole, Red Bull’s Sergio Perez and Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton.
Norris said: “For our race against Max, we have to get past all of them. Charles is not going to let things go easily, same with Hamilton. He is always going to be defensive.
“When we look at the pace from Friday, it gives us a decent amount of confidence that if we focus on ourselves we can get through them at some point in the race.”
Leclerc was surprised by Ferrari’s pace in the wet and said he expected a “tricky race” after the car proved uncompetitive in the dry on Friday.
“We don’t have any magic solution for the race pace,” Leclerc said.
Perez’s front-row start is an important step for the Mexican after a series of weak results. He faces pressure for his seat and could give his hopes of keeping it over the summer break a boost if he performs strongly in the race.
“McLaren looked very strong but we are not so far away,” he said. “After the first stint we will have a good idea.”
Perez dismissed the speculation about his future, saying he “couldn’t care less”, even though Red Bull have admitted they will consider the driver line-ups across their two teams before the resumption of the season at the Dutch Grand Prix on 23-25 August.
Mercedes brought a new floor to Spa, in the hope it would increase their competitiveness, but reverted their cars to the specification in which Hamilton won the British Grand Prix three weeks ago after problems on Friday.
Hamilton said: “Max will make his way through pretty quick. That car is fastest here this weekend or at least tied with McLaren.
“We just have to keep our heads down and try to hold position. I’m going to try my utmost. I will see if I can keep up with the guys ahead of me. I’m hoping the changes we have made will be better [for the race].”